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May 14
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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

And you might want to stop trolling. Otherwise, you would have found out that a) I've said these names are not confirmed, and three (in digits: 3) other readers have aleady explained this issue. Therefore, sorry, but same 'fate' like all other trolls.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Ah yes! The IAF is still having squadrons operating old S-125s. Thanks!

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Siddhant's avatar

Thank you for this! Indian Armed forces just did a press conference an hour back and they did say they downed some of Pakistan's jets and lost some of theirs but didn't specify what or how many.

Regarding your point of, "Recovering the deterrent", Islamabad still hasn't managed to do that, though. Their drones and missiles don't work against India's air defense and their own air defense doesn't work against India's air strikes. And considering how paranoid Pakistan's generals tend to be, about India, they still need to recover the deterrent.

Regarding external mediation, PAK seems to want to credit the US - There is some stuff on Social Media that IND hit Kirna Hilla, which supposedly is a military storage site (potentially nuclear). And Indian Mainstream Media is reporting that IND saw heightened security measures in PAK after that and perhaps informed the US of it, which may have told PAK to sue for peace instantly. And there is other stuff on Social Media that there are flights from the US Dept of Energy to Pakistan since the morning.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Yeah, the Pakistanis are 'rushing' to get Dumpf involved. Obviously hoping to drag him to their side. Pathetic, and typical.

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James Touza's avatar

How many days ago did JD say the US will stay out of this? The more confused, the better.

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TheCh0sen1's avatar

sorry for my ignorance, what/who is dumpf?

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Dumpf = Trump

Pudding = Putin

Keystone Cops in Moscow = Russian General Staff

Buddies = Ukrainian General Staff

People in Need of Fresh Air = Pentagon... and so on, and on, and on... ;-)

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Slashtab's avatar

IAF was porentially looking to acquire F35. How do you see this now playing out?

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Nisarg Avashia's avatar

Since its clear how closely tied the jihadi syndicate is to the Pakistani government, is it possible that ISI and co were doing some shady ready to attach nuclear bomb? Their ministers had rhetorically implied they'll make 100g bombs to attack their enemies?

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Siddhant's avatar

anything is possible but there's no clear evidence that the Pakistanis were exploring the nuclear option.

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Nisarg Avashia's avatar

Yeah but maybe just researching there was an alleged assassination at the Nur Yar Khan Air base where their nuclear facility lies. Deep state activities.

The prime minister also thanked the 'khufiya' secret services.

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August F Siemon's avatar

Thanks for this. I've come to rely on you for information on conflicts like Syria and this one because all the tradmedia gives us are the official releases that say nothing worth hearing.

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Oskar Krempl's avatar

The second part is also excellent. IMHO the IAF proofed superior. The PAF can hit hard, but only for a very limited time, as they don't have enogh stock available, which doesn't surprise, as the country is de facto bankrupt.

There should be a lesson for the USA also. Chinese technology is able to give nasty surprises to the unprepared ones.

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Siddhant's avatar

For sure, there is lessons for the West here - Europe as well, considering Russia would likely get even higher tech from the Chinese.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

I do not think the Chinese might ever deliver anything as advanced to Russia - asthey are doing with Pakistan and Iran.

There is a system in what Beijing is doing. Either there are 'special relations', 'strategioc cooperation', and one thus becomes a part of the Chinese system of research, development and production (this is something nobody can arrange with the Russians: not even India or Iran), and is getting 'special stuff' - though in exchange for 'special info and experiences' - or outside that loop and then 'just getting whatever other stuff'.

Then, there is the fact that even 'indigenous variants of what was originally the Russian stuff' - like, for example; the J-16 (based on the Su-30MKK) are so completely different to what the Russians once delivered, that the Russians simply can't use it. The VKS would experience major problems just if trying to adapt itself to the JF-17, regardless if this is powered by a Russian engine, just for example: the avionics, weaponry and other systems are fundamentaly different.

Finally, there is threat of 'the Western' sanctions should Beijing start delivering 'obvious' stuff to Moscow. Beijing does not find Moscow worth that risk.

Thus, they're keeping it a 'low-profile affair' with Russia: UAV-parts, Desertcross carts and similar.

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Siddhant's avatar

Regarding the sanctions... tbf China already faces like a 200% tariff from USA (which is their biggest market). How much would it really be a factor in Beijing's thinking.

I get the point about the weapons being different to what the Russians are used to, but they can modify it if they had time, which they could possibly buy with a "deal" with US.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Mate, that's like when - when starting to lose this round - Pakistan began bragging how it's going to buy that new Turkish ISR aircraft, and J-35 and whatever else...

'That's in the future': nobody can say if it's really going to happen or not, and it's not relevant to what's going on right now.

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arthur brogard's avatar

so that's interesting. so what's your analysis of the worth of the overt great camaraderie of china and russia? if they in fact are not closer together than say china and pakistan?

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mehudi's avatar

Thank you!

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Mike's avatar

Great roll up. Finally cleared a lot of stuff up for me, the media was all over the board on this and I couldn't make heads or tails out of anything, or kept getting a bunch of crap about how Pakistan was really doing great. I swear, no one in the US seems to have ever read anything about the other Wars these guys have fought or how they turned out. I had to remind one guy that Bin Laden hid in Pakistan when he started ranting about how India is not to be trusted. Thanks again.

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Akshay's avatar

This. I am an Indian working in US and was surprised to see some consider India and pak as equals.

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Mike's avatar

I know. I put it down as Cold War leftovers, but the Paks have run a long propaganda game here and have had some useful idiots who backed them up (Yeager sadly was one, one of his very few mistakes in his otherwise awesome life). But I've read the history and about the wars and well, Paks are not anywhere near as good as India. India isn't exactly perfect certainly, but they are a damn site better than Pakistan.

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Akshay's avatar

I tell every American that listens about how Chucks plane was destroyed by a young Indian pilot who later went on to head the Indian Navy. 😀

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Kiran's avatar

Somehow they are good st propaganda . Perhaps if you are not doing anything constructive, you end up being good at propaganda, takes lesser efforts. Pakistan authorities feed to masses that they won 1965, 1971, e ven Kargil wars. So I'm Not surprised if they claim Victory even now.

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Mike's avatar

That seems to be something certain cultures are good at. I remember when I was in Iraq our base had this weird statue by one of the palaces. I asked about it and was told it was the "Victory Memorial" for the 1991 Gulf War. You see, according to Saddam, the coalition was really trying to reach Baghdad and the Iraqis were able to "Stop them" in Kuwait.

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Smn's avatar

Hey.

Please google chahet ali and qaim shah. The "pilots" arrested my india....

Homestly amazed how people will take up every shit and meme and turn it into news.

It was a meme generated by pakistani memers which somehow reached indian main stream media and they actually played it as a real news.

Chatat ali...a viral fake singer

Qaim ali shah.... a very old politician used as a meme material by youngsters.

So i dont know how credible this article or its sources are.

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WS68's avatar

Hopefully, both sides go back to twiddling their moustaches and leave things at that.

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WS68's avatar

It seems that being in the ISI or a member of one of the ISI proxy terrorist groups is a very grey area.

If that is the case, you have to wonder what the chances are of the Islamist terrorist groups reverse infiltrating the ISI either literally or by ideology, and by definition, becoming the de facto rulers of Pakistan or has it already happened? Scary thought!

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Shaunak Agarkhedkar's avatar

It has already happened. Not for nothing is Asim Munir known as the Jihadi General.

Zia-ul-Haq would be proud.

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Vici81's avatar

That F-16 imagery tracking a Harop drone is from the Sniper targeting pod, not from HUD

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Thx. Now that's making sense.

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Stephan's avatar

Thank You for the effort, this was really helpful to get an idea of what actually happened… I wonder if Dassault will implement something new based on this - I think the actually very first ? - combat experience of the Rafale. In any case, the Chinese are the big winners regarding the testing of their technology.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Dassault has its own 'men in black', just like all the similar US and few other corporations from the defence sector. Thus, the answer is 'definitely positive'.

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May 14
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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

OK. And?

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Lukas's avatar

than you very much!

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Akshay's avatar

Thanks for this Tom. I have been following you on Facebook for a while now and wondered why I could not comment on any of your posts. Found this today and subscribed!

What is your opinion on how this is viewed in the western media? I found a lot of my US friends had opinions that Indian and pak were somehow equal militarily. Do you think Indian govt fails in setting worldwide narratives?

Mike makes an excellent point in one of the comments.

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Raj's avatar

India is terrible at narrative wars because they’re really insular. Everything is designed for domestic political rhetoric and it seems silly and jingoistic from a western lens. And of course, journalists with the nytimes and others share a particular religious affiliation which basically supports the islamic republics all over. One suggestion, maybe don’t collectively lose your shit on social media over the smallest criticism of india and be civil. Also, how come the fourth largest economy in the world cant create a global news platform, but qatar can? Just food for thought. Well done india.

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Martin Whitener's avatar

Tom: absolutely marvelous pair of articles. Much impressed (though, considering your sizeable 'network' I am not surprised. Relayed much of this to my wife and she is quite relieved that it might be over soon.

Namaste

:o)

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Mikal Cyan's avatar

Good piece, but I just have to comment that there is no evidence (or logical reason) for Pakistan targeting Sikh holy sites in Amritsar.

It also doesnt seem likely that IAF bombs penetrated the underground sections of Mushaf AF:

https://x.com/vcdgf555/status/1921323703419252736

Sorry to seem further pedantic, but groups such as LeT & JeM are too inactive / non-functional since the 2000s to merit Army officers attending their supposed public funeral

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

NP.

So, why were Army officers there on funerals?

I mean: I've saved only one of related video-stills from several differenf funerals. All were 'well-attended' by PA officers. How comes?

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Mikal Cyan's avatar

Just doesn't seem likely, unless one believes there to be 0 civilian casualties. An argument can be made for JeM casualties, but it is unfeasible for the Army to create the death of a seven-year old (Irtaza Abbas Turi) who is also the son of a Lt. Col.

There are no militant groups (actively or formerly) supported by the ISI/Army that are either influential enough or active enough to merit pubic funeral attendance.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Yup. And there are no terror camps in Pakistan either. No cooperation between the ISI and half a dozen of jihadist groups. Pakistan is a peaceful, and peace-loving nation and its armed forces would be better named the disarmed forces. Their members are wearing military uniforms and insignia just for fun and because it's so fashionable, nowadays... :rolleyes:

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Mikal Cyan's avatar

No need for hyperboles, it's not the 80s with Ojhri camp & the Afghan Jihad, most ISI-linked groups are inoperative, it's really just the LeT/TRF. Four terrorists with AK-47s don't need C2 from army agencies like in Pehalgam.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Do you really expect me to continue discussing this?

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Mikal Cyan's avatar

I guess lets leave it then

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Md. Al-Imran Abir's avatar

The name "Chahat" Fateh Ali Khan is a parody of the famous (in Indian sub-continent) singer Rahat Fateh Ali Khan. The real name of the Chahat guy is something else and this guy became popular for his nonsensical songs during covid 19 pandemic. He and his songs are meme content. It's very unlikely to be a given name that too more than 20 years ago.

Also, I have never heard of Chahat as a first name and the "Fateh Ali Khan" is a famous family with at least two very very popular singers.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

Thx for explaining that.

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