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Томе guten Morgen.

Там 72 бригада почала вихід з Вугледару?

Я розумію що ви маєте багато особистої роботи і сім'я... Чи буде у вас час розповісти що на аренах відбувається.

Mit freundlichen Grüßen Mykhailo.

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author
Sep 25·edited Sep 25Author

Good morning Mihailo,

Yes, I will. It's going to be another very long and busy day, so please have some patience with me.

Also, please kindly pay attention at what I reported about 'Vuhledar' on the 17th and the 20th:

https://substack.com/@xxtomcooperxx/p-148997922

https://substack.com/@xxtomcooperxx/p-149148793

...what is about to 'follow' in regards of my related reporting is a 'logical consequence'.

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Sep 25·edited Sep 25

Sight, again TLDR: U.S.A wanted Osama bin Laden from Taliban for Al-Queda bombing U.S. consulates in Kenya and Tanzania in 1988. They were trying to negotiate with Taliban even until early 2001, but Taliban has refused, that U.S. "proofs of guild" were insufficient. After 9/11 attacks Taliban offered to hand OBL under condition if U.S provide "proofs of guild" (yes, again). Well, good PR from Taliban, but nothing more. Apparently, they fooled some fools to believe them.

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Sep 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Is there any source that displays the kind of evidence the US provided to the Taliban?

Just asking because of WMD in Iraq, the concentration camps in Kosovo, the killed babies in their incubators in Kuwait and so forth.

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Sep 25·edited Sep 25

The question how sound these U.S. proofs were is another topic. Let's stay focused: U.S. had not much sounder proofs in 2001 than in 1998. U.S. knew it, Taliban knew it. If Taliban made such offer if "proofs provided", then they knew U.S. has not much better proofs than half a year ago. So, they did it just for reasons 1. stop the bombing and pull the leg of U.S., 2. make PR for their supporters: "Oh we are so sincere and innocent."

Mind that Taliban must have some proofs itself, too., but never handed them to U.S. or public. (And OBL boasted himself that he did it later.)

P.S. I do not say that U.S. occupation of Afganistan was right and do not want to discuss that. I just say, that Taliban offer was fake, that's all.

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Yeah, but i am just questioning how serious the proof of the US was, which your entire case is resting on.

I don't know about what the US handed over exactly and "they knew" is always a proposition were I get doubtfull. Especially with the Taliban as they are now fighting international terrorism on their own turf as they did before the US invasion to get rid of the Mudjaheddin. They are basically a nationalist militia, yes an islamic one, but still bound to their nations territory. If the US would threat with invasion I give it quite a possibility that the Taliban would have handed him over.

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If they would like to hand him over, they could do it without conditions. If they needed some proofs just to "keep the face", they could negotiate is secretly.

They gained power from ideology and it they would do something against it, they could loose it easily. Also, many of Taliban top officials really believed to it. They were preaching classic Islamic propaganda that Islam is the only true religion and others are worthless or enemies (especially Christians). So, they could not just get rid of OBL for killing few thousands of worthless enemies without impact on their domestic support.

They were in civil war all the time. About 25% of Afganistan was controlled by Northern Alliance (which has some support from US even before 2001, so anti-US tensions there were always.) So, if Taliban would weaken itself domestically, they would be finished of by domestic opposition.

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Oh really, if it is that easy to hand him over, why was there a yearlong legal battle regarding Julian Assange?

And not only him but every person that is extradited to another country?

All for nothing, just hand them over you say?

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Taliban is not Britain - there were no legal battles, no facts, no proofs. In such regimes, it depends just what the main leader - Mullah Omar at that time - said.

During negotiations with such regimes, it's not about law, but just about deals and all important is secret. Moreover, Taliban had spies over whole Afganistan, even in Norther Territories. So, do you think they didn't know what is Al-Queda doing, they had no proof of OBL guilt themself? Especially when OBL has made fatwa against USA in 1996 already? These two groups were closely cooperating, they new pretty well what is other part doing.

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author
Sep 25·edited Sep 25Author

Gosh... still conspiracy theories, eh?

OK. Let me offer you one more.

Late summer or early autumn 2002... the Bush Admin was full steam into preparing the invasion of Iraq. So much so, the US Marine Corps had a cell preparing the usual 'handout for troops'. That's a sort of a 'booklet' always distributed to the US troops (no matter what branch), whenever they're about to bomb or invade another country...

Anyway, one of the authors of the same requested a bit of help. And so it happened I've 'had to' cross-check all the reports about Iraqi WMDs. Long story short: after weeks of that, conclusion was: there's no evidence for anything but that sole available material evidence was that since sometimes during the war with Iran (can't recall the exact date, but think it was 1987 or 1988), the Iraqis couldn't account for about 100kg (if it was as much) of locally-manufactured Sarin.

Essentially, 'they've lost a few shells'.

Report filled.

Reaction: crickets. Somebody who was a good friend for lots of years, simply ceased answering my e-mails and telephone calls. That's it.

Lesson?

When 'political decision was taken', facts simply do not matter.

Now please, go on: keep on telling me the Taliban offer to hand over OBL if the USA would provide evidence of his guilt - was 'fake'.

....whether because back in September-October 2001 nobody was listening to the Taliban 'Minister of Foreign Affairs' (so much so, his last few press conferences - all held in Pakistan, of course - saw presence of a single news team), or because all the US reasoning for invading Afghanistan, and 'fighting Taliban' was 'not' based on fabrications and intentional ignorance of complicity of multiple 'most-important-non-NATO-allies'...

Considering what happened from 2001 until 2021 in Afghanistan... well, one cannot but conclude this was a true masterpiece of Taliban PR, then. Right?

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Dude, do you really believe Taliban though OBL was innocent guy raising goats in Afganistan? And Al-Queda was making money from goat business? Ask some Afgan refugees how Taliban cared about "proofs of guilt" before massacring whole villages. I've talked to some 20 years ago, common men, farmers etc. They were happy that USA invaded Afganistan, but ware afraid Taliban cannot be defeated.

And Taliban leaders were not stupid, they knew they have better chance to survive U.S. bombing and occupation then handing over OBL. And they were right. Because if they would hand over OBL - that hero who hit the big Satan right into the heart - they would would loose support from their domestic followers and foreign supporters. And the domestic opponents would finish them off. 'political decision was taken' on Taliban part, too, before that PR offer. Taliban have never cared for facts.

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author

Yup. And you were the only one talking with Afghans - whether back then, or ever since.

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Sep 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

And ofc the consequences will be paid by us the idiots working salary ppl

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Sep 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

For sure, as you are profiting from the capital gains, aren't you?

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author

Be a good boy - and pay your taxes.

(And no: don't expect any thanks for doing that.)

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Where is the estimate of 60% of Hamas is intact come from?

From different pictures that would be far more than the buildings still standing in Gaza.

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author
Sep 25·edited Sep 25Author

One of IDF generals, about a month ago. (Actually, he has given a more precise figure; think it was 64 or 67% of Hamas - and its tunnel system - still intact. Don't recall all the details, though, so don't kill me if it was 'more than 60%').

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Thanks

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I guess they'll too resort to flooding at the end.

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Sep 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

That was reported some time ago to not be possible.

Or at least to be possible only in limited areas. And therefore not worth the effort.

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Sep 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Yes, fully agree... still seems that all enigbouring countries, Iran included are dowplaying both Gaza and Lebanon.... as well as Pokrovsk and Vuhledar. Long range air2air defenece is not even mentioned, glide bombs are there to stay. One cannot avoid the suspicion that it is "proceeding as planned and agreed" in some weird way.

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Sep 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Sad but true: zombie idiots run our governments here in “happy Western”, and also idiotic zombies run the media, just feeding zombie people to become zombie idiots as well. What a pity!

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Sep 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

"..is only excelling in presenting multiple highly-paid anchors as entirely clueless, and definitely ignorant, of what's going on."

If you have a clue in that job you end up as a drug addict or get fired the first time you speak up. That is a highly selective work place as anyone with a little bit of critical thinking or an opinion differing from the owner of the place is not suitable. To my mind any diplomat can speak his mind more freely.

No wonder they get paid that well as anyone in any regime is to keep the regime in power.

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Sep 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

The hystory Is a great teacher, but has no students, you know.

Funny that bibi is helping pudding in creating caos, while the 7th October was a gift for pudding (yes it's his birthday!).

But logic: bibi can continue living only if the war continues.

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Yes. It is very easy to see why Bibi starts a new war, it is because he needs it to stay in power. Actually that has been stated on tv here.

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Thanks, I fully agree.

A practical question: A good friend is celebrating attacks on Lebanon. This pisses me off. How to deal with him, any advise?

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After Poland came Norway and Denmark, afterwards Benelux and France.

No worries, Bibis Soviet Union will follow.

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author

Remind him that in 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon in operation 'code-named' (literally) 'Peace for Galilee'.

Ask him if the fact Israel is now invading Lebanon again (for only some 4th or 5th time, and always for exactly the same officially stated reason), is a confirmation that back in 1978, and in 1982.... and then all the time until withdrawal of 2000, and ever since, Israeli aggressions are 'right'?

If so, why are ever additional aggressions necessary?

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BBC is saying:

But this border war began the day after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October, when Hassan Nasrallah ordered his men to begin a limited, but almost daily barrage over the border to support Hamas. It tied up Israeli troops and forced around 60,000 people in border towns to leave their homes.

isn't current escalation more on Hezbollah, as Israel was pretty quiet about Lebanon pre 7.Oct.2023?

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author

It's all on Iran... nah... it's all on Hamas... or Hezbollah... or anybody else - but Israel.

....and yes, 'this war began on 7 October 2023': what happened before that date is entirely irrelevant. Because Israel is all milk and honey. And a happy end of Holocaust...

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This is not at all what I'm saying, please dont twist my words, I do not say Israel is all milk and honey etc.

but even you must probably agree, that no current Israel attack on Lebanon civilians, no pager attack etc would not be happening, if Hezbollah hasnt escalated Oct 2023.

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author

Hezbollah has escalated?

I see.

Well, then, permit me to recommend you the following read:

https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/lebanese-civil-war-volume-3-moving-to-war-4-7-june-1982.php

- to find out how Hezbollah came into being.

Once you do so, I'll be happy to discuss everything you (or anybody else) want to tell me about 'Hezbollah has escalated'.

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I am sure you know a lot more about Lebanon and Hezbollah than me. However besides scolding me you still have not explained, WHY did Hezbollah have to escalate after Gaza attack? They did have a choice, didn't they?

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author
Sep 25·edited Sep 25Author

Do you understand that it's nothing but completely ridiculous to insist on ideas like 'this war began on 7 October 2023' and/or 'Hamas fired the first shot' or 'Hezbollah fired the first shot'?

This is no 'hen or egg' issue but a very clear one: even such a staunch US- and Israel-ally like the Shah Reza Pahlavi of Iran, began supporting the Lebanese Shi'a because dozens of thousands of these were killed in massive, intentional Israeli air strikes and artillery barrages on the population of southern Lebanon (in addition to Palestinian refugees there) back in the 1970s. He was the first to organise charities and send them preachers from Qom. And he did so at the time Israel didn't even know there's something like 'Shi'a Muslims' existent.

....yet, that's what the Hezbollah evolved from.

But, you're trying to explain me that the Hezbollah should've grabbed some coke and popcorn and lean back in the sofa while watching Israel committing a genocide on Palestinians, live on TV?

....and I'm 'lecturing' you about this... 🙄

PLEASE, be so kind: read the book. Everything known about these affairs is explained there. Almost to the last important details And largely on basis of reporting by Israeli researchers (as far as not from first hand: co-author Efim is an IDF-veteran, and veteran of the Lebansese War). I'm not researching and writing my books in order to lecture anybody, but in order to inform. If I 'lecture' anybody, then only characters who are trying to comment about topics they simply do not have enough knowledge to comment about.

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FPV drone ?

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Sep 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

When in trouble, when in doubt, run in circles scream and shout.

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As not infrequently, this piece more or less represents my own opinion on the current global mess. With reference to Israel/Lebanon may I suggest that in order to understand how we got here (ignoring, for simplicity, Sykes/Picot etc etc) reading Robert Fisk's indispensable "Pity the Nation". This is centred on what's become known as the Lebanese "civil" war.

I tend toward the "plague on both their houses" position on this subject with the virulence of the plague varying from side to side.

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So what’s the solution then …?!

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author

The solution is, actually (and as so often), as obvious as plain simple: stop ignoring the truth and reality because of ethno-religious prejudice, and grant everybody exactly the same rights and privileges (which, in turn, also means: exactly the same responsibilities, too!).

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Apply international law and UN resolutions equally to all . How simple is that (yes, - it seems to be very hard).

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Sep 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Here in the UK it is very hard to criticise Israel without being accused of somehow giving tacit support to tragedy that the Jewish community experienced in WWII.

It's not helped either by the public protests having people hiding their faces behind a keffiyeh, which is catnip for people in the media who want to say that anyone in the protest march is Hamas apologist. Then we have a government (the new one) who is paranoid about not being in 'lock step' with the US.

Jewish friends of mine in the UK say that the October 7th atrocities has meant that Israelis making the argument for a 2 state solution in Israel sound like nutters. Where to go?

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author

To make one thing clear: I do not like idiots that are something like 'Hamas-supporters' and then 'hide/swim' in mass protests of well-meant people (just I do not like Hamas either: they're religious extremists and after imposing a dictatorship). Their presence in any of public protests is promptly misused by all the zombie idiots, and thus counterproductive. It's tarnishing the reputation of those who know why are they protesting - and helping those who remain insistent on all sorts of racism-motivated lies and fantasies.

That said, here in Austria, and/or in Germany, if expressing critique of Israel and Zionism in the public, you're not only promptly stamped as 'anti-Semitic', but can end being declared a 'Gefährder'. I.e. somebody endangering the public safety.

...especially if you find yourself being a target of one of local journos declaring him/herself a 'Jew', while being nothing of that - but, thus feeling free to block, ban etc. even Jewish artists and journalists criticising and opposing the Zionist terror, Appartheid and aggression (over 400 Jewish artists and journalists critical of Zionism were banned from public appearances in Germany the last year alone.)

While the solution is, actually (and as so often), as obvious as plain simple: stop ignoring the truth and reality because of ethno-religious prejudice and grant everybody exactly the same rights and privileges (which, in turn, also means: exactly the same responsibilities, too!).

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The same rights, priviliges and dutys… that would be a one state Solution actually.

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author

Yup. From that point of view: when everybody has exactly the same rights, the 'two-state solution' (which is obviously none) is entirely pointless.

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Yes, thus a one state solution, also because there cannot be a two state solution. So, give Israel it all and let them have the responsibility. Forever.

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Nope. As clearly demonstrated over the last 80 years, 'Israel' cannot be trusted to run such a state entirely on its own.

SAME RIGHTS FOR EVERYBODY does not stipulate 'let the state and business being run by religious fanatics and racists': in such a state, there are no equal rights even for Jews (should there be doubts, go and check with Israelis who are opposing Netanyahu).

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Our psychiatric president (justo look for the pictures in Wall Street that journos take) said in the UN General Assembly that Argentina is going to cut their decades long neuttal instance to going to "defend Freedom"...

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Sep 25Liked by Sarcastosaurus

First, I'd like to compliment the quality and civility of the commenters here on Tom's Substack. It is a rare pleasure to regularly read thoughtful, inquisitive and constructive commentary in a modern internet forum. Whether that is because Tom's writing style attracts mainly high-quality folk or is a result of merciless purging of dissident rabble-rousers is unclear to me, but it brings me to today's thought.

Are any/all of you even real? I've no expertise in geopolitics or military history other than information obtained through reading newspapers (up to about 10 years ago) and whatever books and movies piqued my interest. However, most of Tom's and your commentary fall closely in line with what I believe to be truth, against the majority opinion publicly available. This causes me to suspect that I may be insane and simply conjuring all of it up to support my own world view as an innoculation against the insanity of the direction the establishment would like us to plunge our civilization down.

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What I think is funny is that Dick Cheney, who should be a convicted war criminal by now for the Putinesque invasion of Iraq, is a new hero of the liberals in the US because he came out against Trump and said he would be voting for Harris in the presidental election. As bad as Trump is, it was Bush/Cheney who led the country into one of the two most consequential and disasterous foreign policy debacles in US history, not Trump who mostly just wanted to sit in the White House and preen during his time in office. But now Cheney has god on his side according to US liberals.

It's a good thing Der Fuehrer is dead and can't vote.

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This just goes to show that politics, as in so much of modern life, is fully of irony.

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Nonsense. Liberals still despise Cheney.

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That's so, but the father - Daughter Cheney endorsement illustrates in living color how far out the Orange One has gone.

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