How to understand the policy of Trump is easy: will it be a great show?
If the answer is yes, than Trump will do it. As it was for the Zelensky-Trump argument in the white house, as it was for the "liberation day" and the list goes on and on...
Tom, where did you get the idea that a significant portion of Ukraine is celebrating the U.S. strikes on Iran? Honestly, that mood is nowhere to be felt here.
Quite the opposite — considering how the U.S. supports Israel unconditionally while constantly delaying even pre-approved weapons shipments to Ukraine and lecturing us like schoolchildren, the dominant feeling here is irritation.
As for the strike on Fordow — hitting an empty facility after everything had been moved out? That’s not strategy. That’s theater for idiots.
And now Iran is moving to block the Strait of Hormuz. What now? Is this some brilliant 4D chess to raise oil prices while alienating the last remaining Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar?
This isn’t leadership. It’s geopolitical suicide disguised as foreign policy — run by amateurs playing with matches in a powder magazine.
Oh, it reminds me more about some 'clever' people searching for gas leaks inside their house with a burning candle. Darwin award is sometimes very popular.
From many reactions I'm receiving from Ukraine lately.
By side how often I've been called an 'anti-Semite' by Ukrainians for criticising Israel's genocide on Palestinians, but: I kind of 'better should not dare' pointing out that Iran is not supplying any ammo, missiles, nor UAVs to Russia since 2023 (since it's sold 6,000 Shaheds to Moscow for Gold).
Indeed, earlier today, have been lectured by several Ukrainians such things like:
- that Palestinians have invaded Israel (whether on 7 October 2023, or any time before; depends on personal preferences);
- that the persons thinking that way know this because they know where the Kuban region of Russia was the part of Ukraine in early 20th Century;
- that all the Palestinian organisations were created by KGB and in Moscow;
- that the existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran is a result of a KGB's plot to organise a terror base for operations against Israel and US interests;
- that Ron Arad was the reason for the Iran-Iraq War and/or the Iran-Israel War;
- that it was Iran that created a network of terrorists and drug smugglers for smuggling nuclear projects to whoever pays more;
I don’t think Iran can do much about this. They are severely weakened. Highly unlikely but US should give Iran some kind of a win so that everybody can get out of this mess with something to brag. Hope there aren’t unforeseen consequences.
Giving the opponent some way to save face is not really in the Dumpf playbook, I'm afraid... If someone in his entourage could read they might want to read up on how the Treaty of Versailles and humiliating your adversaries worked to pacify Europe after WW I ...
Clearly, the enriched uranium is still in Iranian hands. Maybe I'm wrong, but a partial success of this 'SMO' is that Iran now will not be able to enrich more uranium. Right?
Yes but they'll take years to rebuild all the facilities such as the centrifuges and others. And they will be more vulnerable to Israeli attacks.
Still, for sure the Iranian nuclear programm is not dead and if I were Khamenei I would try to build the bomb as soon as possible (which could be 2-3 months away for a demonstration test but probably years to make it usable on missiles)
Well I don't think something like Fardow could be rebuilt in little time. The point is, I repeat maybe I'm wrong, that Iran does not have a safe and secure place to enrich and build a bomb anymore. And given how much the Mossad has infiltrated Iran, a "secret place" wouldn't be secret for much time
Could Iran have built more underground facilities, deeper, than what the Israelis have been telling us?
Could they be installing evacuated centrifuges as I type this?
Could they be starting enrichment to the required purity for a bomb?
Could they have enough material for a few proper nukes areas already?
This all rests on what Khamenei orders, or his successor.
Given that there may be true believers in Iran who may not have a problem nuking Israel if they feel they're losing the grip on power I'm not optimistic. Khamenei is old, and will be replaced relatively soon whatever happens, what about the next guy? Moderate or hardline...
Yes there is some infiltration, but not in the way Israel wants to make the world believe (this is part of their PR strategy "resistance is futile"). But this will start a witch hunt anyway.
Check my earlier reports to find out I've announced an evacuation of nuclear facilities already back on 13 or 14 June - which in turn means: must've been started already days before.
The big step is always the beginning to enrich the material, afterwards it gets easier.
For example if you have 5 tons with 5%, 95% of those 5 tons are useless, but if you have 1 ton with 60% only 40% are usleess and of of course you wouldn't try to get to 100%.
If the Iranians managed to save their enriched uranium, they have enough to make a good number of dirty bombs. Given the holes in Israel's Iron Dome, what's to stop them from poisoning Israeli territory? Even an intercepted missile would spread its poison with consequences for generations. It would be a suicidal act for Iran, but no more suicidal than using an atomic bomb.
But is the facility really damaged or not. Iranians might have taken equipment from fordow out of precaution. but I don't really know if that's a right decision since American and Israel's satellites might be tracking the movement of cargo. The place where it land up is less secure than Fordow.
Just a thought/image. Giving up on UN, on rules based order, on humanity itself, does show unipolarity disappearing, dissolving into fiery metal, like in Terminator movie.
Vladimir Putin could win the Nobel Peace Prize (it's him that's so constantly claiming that he deserves it, isn't it?) for ending the illegal war on Iran by giving Iran nuclear weapons: no need to worry about Iran getting nuclear weapons any more -- they have them!
Putin does not give Iran even his top modern conventional arms (like jets or ADs). Iran is just a useful pawn for Putin. He would sacrifice it anytime (e.g. for Ukraine, if Dumpf would place such a deal.)
> Russia “strongly condemns” U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and demands a UN Security Council response, calling the move a “gross violation of the UN Charter,” according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. Moscow claims the attack harms the nuclear non-proliferation regime.
IMO Trump thinks he does not need any deal with Putin yet. But if the stuff they stepped into would get bad, I would not to bet 2c he does not do it.
This is utterly, truly fantastic. Machiavelli would shed tears of joy. Now we have the rogue WMD scenario that gives us exactly the pretext we need for "shock and awe" followed by regime change!
Mossad allegedly have been pushing intel directly to Trump through Kurilla and Ratcliffe, just as they were pushing it to Bush and Rumsfeld through Wolfowitz in 2003. Just like the plan to install Ahmed Chalabi.
Now, his analogue, Reza Pahlavi clearly has enormous support. We know this because of the totally-not-fake engagement on "social media." Meanwhile Iranians I actually know are saying they will fight to the death to preserve the state. Hm! Who to trust?
Reza Pahlavi might be a candidate for some spin doctors, but the revolution was back in 1979, 46 years ago.
And 1979 his father wasn't too popular either, to express it mildly. So what or who is he for the Iranian population?
Yes with enough politicil will will and iron guts they can try to install him as a puppet. But for this it would need a lot of boots on the ground (more than the USA currently has) and the will to shed blood for at least a decade.
One has to think only about the historical examples Tom gave in the post before (Operation Endless Wisdom) and Iran is now a lot stronger in every dimension.
Insanity breeds insanity. Trump's dictatorial action, without consultation with Congress, is an impeachable offense...in normal times. Congress will do nothing and Trump will become dictator in fact.
But the situation is completely different and what meaning did the split up and dying Yugoslavia have for the world. By the way he didn't bomb whole Yugoslavia, but the Serbian parts of it.
It is unlikely that the Democrats will re-take the U.S. Senate in the 2026 mid-term election cycle. Every 2 years 1/3 of the U.S. Senate is up for re-election. Trump could get impeached for the 3rd time if/when the Democrats take the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections, but I don't think that they could get 2/3 of U.S. senators to throw Trump out of office in a Senate trial after an impeachment by the House of Representatives.
For the 2026 mid-terms and the Senate seats up for election, 13 seats are held by Democrats and 20 are held by Republicans--1/3 of the U.S. Senate. As of the last election, Democrats hold 45 seats to Republicans at 53. 2 Senate seats are held by Independents. The Democrats will have to win a lot of Senate seats even if they don't lose any of the 13 seats to oust Trump in a Senate trial. In a wild-ass miracle of sorts, if the Democrats win all 20 Republican seats up for re-election and if they vote as a political party bloc, then they will have 65 votes, short of just 2. Those 2 votes could come from the two Independents or from a couple of dissaffected Republicans. The likelihood of the Democrats winning ALL 20 Republican seats in 2026? Oh yeah, sure! ... if pigs fly. **LOL**
Okay that is interesting. But that leaves for me the question (as a non american) how much the members of the senate follow the party line. Wasn't there lately support fo tougher sanctions on the RF across both parties?
Perhaps, but I perceive that Trump's "witchcraft" has the Republican Senators pretty much in line, that and the cowardice of those who fear being primaried if they step out off line. Nonetheless, as you stated previously, we just will have to wait and see. :)
For them it is now the only way out, unless they want to end as a puppet state. To make it clear I am NOT a friend of the Mullahs and their fanatism/fatalism, but IMHO I am realistic enough to see what chances they have.
Your pro Palestine and Anti MAGA feelings are clouding your writings fella. I am just surprised that your analysis of Op Sindoor was pro India, maybe the TV channel interview monies softened your views. We are seeing through you now Tom.
Calling it a genocide is just a pure bias propaganda line. USA nuked and firebombed Japan and nobody calls it a genocide because they stopped bombing after surrender.
They are starving, dehydrating, bombing hospitals and refugee camps, that is genocide, there is no other intention than killing a certain people, not only that but its colletive punishment.
Also does beliving it is just ethnic cleasing make it better?
Regarding being pro-Palestine and anti-MAGA, the authentic MAGA base, as patriots, quite rightly hate to see Trump being played like a fiddle by Netanyahu, do they not?
When it comes to the geopolitics of the Middle East, you couldn't put much clear water now between the views of Steve Bannon or Tucker Carlson and the late Osama Bin Laden, as expressed in his letter to America where he said, in essence: "Get the hell out of our region and liberate yourselves from AIPAC."
BTW, please mind: I'm meanwhile quite intollerant vis-a-vis intollerance, and thus tend to make wide detours around any kind of extremists, especially crazed chauvinists, religious fanatics, Flatearthers, Holocaust-deniers... and those denying Israel's genocide on Palestinians. In regards of my online-activity, I'm tending to consider any such characters for trolls.
Well, if they don't nuke each other soon, the lack of a nuclear winter will mean the entire area will be too hot for human habitation by the 2060's or so. Better to die by radiation than by heat exhaustion, no?
God, what a mess. Thanks for your time tom.
Why should have NPT protect Iran's nuclear program enriching uranium far beyond civilian usage?
Check the Article X of the NPT.
How to understand the policy of Trump is easy: will it be a great show?
If the answer is yes, than Trump will do it. As it was for the Zelensky-Trump argument in the white house, as it was for the "liberation day" and the list goes on and on...
I've read similar thing in the morning already from a few other "possible professional experts". You are not the only one in the universe.
Glad to hear that.
Tom, where did you get the idea that a significant portion of Ukraine is celebrating the U.S. strikes on Iran? Honestly, that mood is nowhere to be felt here.
Quite the opposite — considering how the U.S. supports Israel unconditionally while constantly delaying even pre-approved weapons shipments to Ukraine and lecturing us like schoolchildren, the dominant feeling here is irritation.
As for the strike on Fordow — hitting an empty facility after everything had been moved out? That’s not strategy. That’s theater for idiots.
And now Iran is moving to block the Strait of Hormuz. What now? Is this some brilliant 4D chess to raise oil prices while alienating the last remaining Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar?
This isn’t leadership. It’s geopolitical suicide disguised as foreign policy — run by amateurs playing with matches in a powder magazine.
Porque todavía hay mucha gente que cree el mito del "envío de armas iraníes para Rusia", cosa que no ocurre desde 2023.
Oh, it reminds me more about some 'clever' people searching for gas leaks inside their house with a burning candle. Darwin award is sometimes very popular.
From many reactions I'm receiving from Ukraine lately.
By side how often I've been called an 'anti-Semite' by Ukrainians for criticising Israel's genocide on Palestinians, but: I kind of 'better should not dare' pointing out that Iran is not supplying any ammo, missiles, nor UAVs to Russia since 2023 (since it's sold 6,000 Shaheds to Moscow for Gold).
Indeed, earlier today, have been lectured by several Ukrainians such things like:
- that Palestinians have invaded Israel (whether on 7 October 2023, or any time before; depends on personal preferences);
- that the persons thinking that way know this because they know where the Kuban region of Russia was the part of Ukraine in early 20th Century;
- that all the Palestinian organisations were created by KGB and in Moscow;
- that the existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran is a result of a KGB's plot to organise a terror base for operations against Israel and US interests;
- that Ron Arad was the reason for the Iran-Iraq War and/or the Iran-Israel War;
- that it was Iran that created a network of terrorists and drug smugglers for smuggling nuclear projects to whoever pays more;
....and lots of other 'well-known truths'... 🙄
https://www.unian.ua/politics/ssha-i-iran-viyna-poziciya-ukrajini-po-viyni-na-blizkomu-shodi-13046034.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news
https://bukvy.org/golovnyj-rabyn-ukrayiny-pidtrymav-udary-ssha-po-iranu-czej-den-uvijde-v-istoriyu/
How many MOP does the USA had before this strike?
20
They said it was less. I think 12, if remember it correctly.
A significant portion of the stockpile anyway.
I don’t think Iran can do much about this. They are severely weakened. Highly unlikely but US should give Iran some kind of a win so that everybody can get out of this mess with something to brag. Hope there aren’t unforeseen consequences.
Giving the opponent some way to save face is not really in the Dumpf playbook, I'm afraid... If someone in his entourage could read they might want to read up on how the Treaty of Versailles and humiliating your adversaries worked to pacify Europe after WW I ...
Clearly, the enriched uranium is still in Iranian hands. Maybe I'm wrong, but a partial success of this 'SMO' is that Iran now will not be able to enrich more uranium. Right?
Why not? They have all the necessary materials and equipment. And all the stocks of the uranium they've enriched so far.
...just not under any kind of IAEA's inspections any more, but in some secret place.
Yes but they'll take years to rebuild all the facilities such as the centrifuges and others. And they will be more vulnerable to Israeli attacks.
Still, for sure the Iranian nuclear programm is not dead and if I were Khamenei I would try to build the bomb as soon as possible (which could be 2-3 months away for a demonstration test but probably years to make it usable on missiles)
Why 'years'?
All the facilities hit by Israel in October 2024, were rebuilt by February this year.
Well I don't think something like Fardow could be rebuilt in little time. The point is, I repeat maybe I'm wrong, that Iran does not have a safe and secure place to enrich and build a bomb anymore. And given how much the Mossad has infiltrated Iran, a "secret place" wouldn't be secret for much time
Could Iran have built more underground facilities, deeper, than what the Israelis have been telling us?
Could they be installing evacuated centrifuges as I type this?
Could they be starting enrichment to the required purity for a bomb?
Could they have enough material for a few proper nukes areas already?
This all rests on what Khamenei orders, or his successor.
Given that there may be true believers in Iran who may not have a problem nuking Israel if they feel they're losing the grip on power I'm not optimistic. Khamenei is old, and will be replaced relatively soon whatever happens, what about the next guy? Moderate or hardline...
Could be. If they are clever they will make an 'official' test when there are~ 25 nukes are ready as a minimum.
Yes there is some infiltration, but not in the way Israel wants to make the world believe (this is part of their PR strategy "resistance is futile"). But this will start a witch hunt anyway.
I would advise the mullahs to talk to the Taliban about setting up shop in deep A Stan.
I wonder if the Koreans would sell them a couple?
Are you sure they have the equipment? Those centrifuges are huge; even on public photos like https://www.jns.org/iran-enriches-uranium-at-natanz-with-additional-centrifuges-iaea/ this doesn't look like something which could be disassembled and taken away in a day on so few trucks.
Check my earlier reports to find out I've announced an evacuation of nuclear facilities already back on 13 or 14 June - which in turn means: must've been started already days before.
The big step is always the beginning to enrich the material, afterwards it gets easier.
For example if you have 5 tons with 5%, 95% of those 5 tons are useless, but if you have 1 ton with 60% only 40% are usleess and of of course you wouldn't try to get to 100%.
If the Iranians managed to save their enriched uranium, they have enough to make a good number of dirty bombs. Given the holes in Israel's Iron Dome, what's to stop them from poisoning Israeli territory? Even an intercepted missile would spread its poison with consequences for generations. It would be a suicidal act for Iran, but no more suicidal than using an atomic bomb.
For a reason systematically ridiculed and ignored both in Israel and 'the West':
Because Khamenei's 'Nuclear Fatwa' is prohibiting them from doing anything even roughly similar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei%27s_fatwa_against_nuclear_weapons
If a man can issue a fatwa, a man can revoke it.
If a man can issue a fatwa, a man can revoke it.
But is the facility really damaged or not. Iranians might have taken equipment from fordow out of precaution. but I don't really know if that's a right decision since American and Israel's satellites might be tracking the movement of cargo. The place where it land up is less secure than Fordow.
Greatly appreciate your work, Tom.
Just a thought/image. Giving up on UN, on rules based order, on humanity itself, does show unipolarity disappearing, dissolving into fiery metal, like in Terminator movie.
Vladimir Putin could win the Nobel Peace Prize (it's him that's so constantly claiming that he deserves it, isn't it?) for ending the illegal war on Iran by giving Iran nuclear weapons: no need to worry about Iran getting nuclear weapons any more -- they have them!
Seems like the most direct path to peace.
Then Iran and Israel could nuke each other.
(best ending)?
Yes and this is how it will probably end if not sanity comes back on all sides in the very last minute.
Putin does not give Iran even his top modern conventional arms (like jets or ADs). Iran is just a useful pawn for Putin. He would sacrifice it anytime (e.g. for Ukraine, if Dumpf would place such a deal.)
He probably has.
No, not yet. Because:
> Russia “strongly condemns” U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and demands a UN Security Council response, calling the move a “gross violation of the UN Charter,” according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. Moscow claims the attack harms the nuclear non-proliferation regime.
IMO Trump thinks he does not need any deal with Putin yet. But if the stuff they stepped into would get bad, I would not to bet 2c he does not do it.
This is utterly, truly fantastic. Machiavelli would shed tears of joy. Now we have the rogue WMD scenario that gives us exactly the pretext we need for "shock and awe" followed by regime change!
Mossad allegedly have been pushing intel directly to Trump through Kurilla and Ratcliffe, just as they were pushing it to Bush and Rumsfeld through Wolfowitz in 2003. Just like the plan to install Ahmed Chalabi.
Now, his analogue, Reza Pahlavi clearly has enormous support. We know this because of the totally-not-fake engagement on "social media." Meanwhile Iranians I actually know are saying they will fight to the death to preserve the state. Hm! Who to trust?
Reza Pahlavi might be a candidate for some spin doctors, but the revolution was back in 1979, 46 years ago.
And 1979 his father wasn't too popular either, to express it mildly. So what or who is he for the Iranian population?
Yes with enough politicil will will and iron guts they can try to install him as a puppet. But for this it would need a lot of boots on the ground (more than the USA currently has) and the will to shed blood for at least a decade.
One has to think only about the historical examples Tom gave in the post before (Operation Endless Wisdom) and Iran is now a lot stronger in every dimension.
Insanity breeds insanity. Trump's dictatorial action, without consultation with Congress, is an impeachable offense...in normal times. Congress will do nothing and Trump will become dictator in fact.
Could well be, but maybe he dies from some natural cause. But I expect the mid term elections to completely change the political landscape in the USA.
No. Clinton Bombed the hello out of Yugoslavia and they impeach him by the Affaire with Lewinsky. The US good neighbour dead in 1999.
But the situation is completely different and what meaning did the split up and dying Yugoslavia have for the world. By the way he didn't bomb whole Yugoslavia, but the Serbian parts of it.
It is unlikely that the Democrats will re-take the U.S. Senate in the 2026 mid-term election cycle. Every 2 years 1/3 of the U.S. Senate is up for re-election. Trump could get impeached for the 3rd time if/when the Democrats take the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections, but I don't think that they could get 2/3 of U.S. senators to throw Trump out of office in a Senate trial after an impeachment by the House of Representatives.
We will see, in 1.5 years we will know more.
For the 2026 mid-terms and the Senate seats up for election, 13 seats are held by Democrats and 20 are held by Republicans--1/3 of the U.S. Senate. As of the last election, Democrats hold 45 seats to Republicans at 53. 2 Senate seats are held by Independents. The Democrats will have to win a lot of Senate seats even if they don't lose any of the 13 seats to oust Trump in a Senate trial. In a wild-ass miracle of sorts, if the Democrats win all 20 Republican seats up for re-election and if they vote as a political party bloc, then they will have 65 votes, short of just 2. Those 2 votes could come from the two Independents or from a couple of dissaffected Republicans. The likelihood of the Democrats winning ALL 20 Republican seats in 2026? Oh yeah, sure! ... if pigs fly. **LOL**
Okay that is interesting. But that leaves for me the question (as a non american) how much the members of the senate follow the party line. Wasn't there lately support fo tougher sanctions on the RF across both parties?
Perhaps, but I perceive that Trump's "witchcraft" has the Republican Senators pretty much in line, that and the cowardice of those who fear being primaried if they step out off line. Nonetheless, as you stated previously, we just will have to wait and see. :)
Something tells me that Iran will only be safe when they get nukes
For them it is now the only way out, unless they want to end as a puppet state. To make it clear I am NOT a friend of the Mullahs and their fanatism/fatalism, but IMHO I am realistic enough to see what chances they have.
Your pro Palestine and Anti MAGA feelings are clouding your writings fella. I am just surprised that your analysis of Op Sindoor was pro India, maybe the TV channel interview monies softened your views. We are seeing through you now Tom.
Its not about being pro Palestine and Anti MAGA its more like being pro human rights and against genocide and civilian sufrering.
Also it seems you didnt actually read all the Pakistani-Indian conflict posts
Calling it a genocide is just a pure bias propaganda line. USA nuked and firebombed Japan and nobody calls it a genocide because they stopped bombing after surrender.
The US werent trying to kick the japanese from japan, unlike Israel
Even if thats true thats ethnic cleansing not genocide. Pro palestine people say genocide 100% of the time
They are starving, dehydrating, bombing hospitals and refugee camps, that is genocide, there is no other intention than killing a certain people, not only that but its colletive punishment.
Also does beliving it is just ethnic cleasing make it better?
Pure, distilled propaganda, nothing else:
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/12/amnesty-international-concludes-israel-is-committing-genocide-against-palestinians-in-gaza/
https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/12/19/extermination-and-acts-genocide/israel-deliberately-depriving-palestinians-gaza
https://web.archive.org/web/20240719222458/https://www.btselem.org/publications/202404_manufacturing_famine
https://verfassungsblog.de/genocide-in-gaza/
https://www.un.org/unispal/document/letter-from-the-state-of-palestine-23apr25/
https://www.bu.edu/articles/2024/is-israel-committing-genocide-in-gaza/
Shall I go on...?
Go read CNN.com
Regarding being pro-Palestine and anti-MAGA, the authentic MAGA base, as patriots, quite rightly hate to see Trump being played like a fiddle by Netanyahu, do they not?
When it comes to the geopolitics of the Middle East, you couldn't put much clear water now between the views of Steve Bannon or Tucker Carlson and the late Osama Bin Laden, as expressed in his letter to America where he said, in essence: "Get the hell out of our region and liberate yourselves from AIPAC."
Yeah. I've got it certified by numerous characters that I'm absolutely unable of soberly analyisng the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Strangely enough, none of them has ever read anything of this kind:
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/annual-post-on-why-do-i-think-about
BTW, please mind: I'm meanwhile quite intollerant vis-a-vis intollerance, and thus tend to make wide detours around any kind of extremists, especially crazed chauvinists, religious fanatics, Flatearthers, Holocaust-deniers... and those denying Israel's genocide on Palestinians. In regards of my online-activity, I'm tending to consider any such characters for trolls.
Well, if they don't nuke each other soon, the lack of a nuclear winter will mean the entire area will be too hot for human habitation by the 2060's or so. Better to die by radiation than by heat exhaustion, no?
That is just another hysteria.
Hi Tom,
many thanks, without you, I would be fairly clueless and equally lost.
Hope you kindly accept my “payback” in the form of Rickshaws donations :-).
Sure! Thanks a lot!
Terrific analysis, as ever.