Destroying/denying a nuclear weapons storage facility might have the effect of having Pakistan simply making more dispersed storage and launch sites or causing them to panick next time and launch one...
Also, we still haven't seen concrete proof that the IAF shot down anything in the 2019 incident.... No Pakistani jets going "missing", no Pakistani pilots mysteriously dying in "training accidents" around that time, nothing. We're half a decade out and still nothing verifiable.
- do you have a list of all the Pakistani pilots fully qualified to fly F-16s as of February 2019?
- and then another one, as for, say, March 2019?
- Have you got a list of every single F-16 ever delivered to Pakistan and its final fate or current condition?
I do not.
...though, 'doubts' of this kind are prompting me into assembling at least the latter list.
Is likely to result in a similar experience like about a decade ago, when I've assembled a list of Israeli Mirage III/5s, and then it turned out that the final whereabouts of some 20 airframes are 'unknown'...
Just 'counting F-16s on sat photos' is not going to help: one needs a list of every single airframe, based on their serial numbers, and the date on which the photo was taken.
The last I did something of that kind with Iranian F-14As, some 7-8 years ago: counted over 60 (though 'available as of 2008-2015').
DG ISPR comments with timestamps (most important evidence) and presence of more than 1 explosion videos multiple parachutes, prove more than 1 jet went down. Also IAF still has higher credibility with respect to their press releases (-kirana hills now) so their radar data appears credible.
Regarding IAF losses this time being above 4 but without pilot loss, seems too lucky scenario.
Nature of targets imply use of aircrafts only for Muridke and Bahawalpur. So loss in Bhatinda seems possible, but then is BS001 image authentic, if not, then why would enemy share a fake image and potentially discredit an actual loss.
Ah I've read that linked article before. It still doesn't address a dead PAF pilot or a missing F-16. Also, the author is absolutely not a neutral source, sorry to say. The radar track data simply means the AWACS lost "sight" of an aircraft.
Furthermore, the PAF put on a glitzy show where they present that the Mig-21 came down with every single missile still on it's rail.
As I've written before, hiding dead pilots and crashed jets isn't easy and you'll usually see "Pilot X died in a training accident while piloting the same je" that the other side claims as shot down.
Meanwhile, here's an example of a press releases about a pilot that's MIA although in all likelihood KiA. His body wasn't recovered until 2009.
So, we have a 6+ year long game of "he said / she said" where the Pakistani claims are backed up be a captured pilot and plane wreckage and the Indian claims are backed up by a personal account, radar tracks and pixel peeping in videos.
If Mr. Cooper is similar comes out tomorrow with evidence of a downed F-16, I and many others will readjust our opinions in light of new evidence.
- not about author, about points he says, evidence does show videos more than 1 missiles fired and contacts. ispr briefings themselves actually happened as quoted. ispr as I said, is the biggest clue, that they captured more than 1 pilots, then retracted the story.
"PAF put on a glitzy show where they present that the Mig-21 came down with every single missile still on it's rail"
- look again one missile is completely intact out of 4, trust pakistani's to source from black market and put one completely intact in the show. for a country whose main weapon is propaganda how difficult it is to procure missiles and put in a show, days later, not same day.
As I've written before, hiding dead pilots and crashed jets isn't easy and you'll usually see "Pilot X died in a training accident while piloting the same je" that the other side claims as shot down.
- fair enough, but 100s of pakistan army soldiers died in Kargil, they refused to take bodies, there is not much news later who were they, nor their public cares, country is not exactly a democracy. its an army having a country.
Meanwhile, here's an example of a press releases about a pilot that's MIA although in all likelihood KiA. His body wasn't recovered until 2009.
So, we have a 6+ year long game of "he said / she said" where the Pakistani claims are backed up be a captured pilot and plane wreckage and the Indian claims are backed up by a personal account, radar tracks and pixel peeping in videos.
- how does a captured Mig pilot and mig's wreckage make any sense in a debate about whether a F-16 was lost or not. no one is claiming said f-16 didn't shoot mig.
- claims are backed, by enemy's own statements (ispr), radar tracks of a relatively trustworthy org., and yes many pixel peeping videos.
If Mr. Cooper is similar comes out tomorrow with evidence of a downed F-16, I and many others will readjust our opinions in light of new evidence.
Asim Munir was already more powerful than the PM (President is kind of a ceremonial post). Now that he is made field marshal, no doubt he is more powerful than others.
Thanks for another great post. Not sure if you’re already planning a post on this, but I’d love to see your analysis and conclusions regarding what the actual aircraft losses were on both sides, both in the air and on the ground. Clearly both sides have an incentive to lie about what their actual losses were, so we can’t trust the “official” loss figures.
Thanks for the heads-up on the Helion offer! Now if only there were no Brexit, damn custom duties :|
I am intrigued by your painting (in addition to the writing , do you ever sleep?), very impressive! Just wondering , do you do this by hand or on the computer?
The Pakistani nuclear arsenal storage basing seems easy to contain in a country with a limited landmass and self induced mil security problem of jihadism, an "all eggs in single basket" situation to maintain opn security and control.
The Indians have "check" control as in chess. Good update on the Pakistani-Indian War of 2025.
First and foremost, I'm extremely grateful to you for answering my questions. I appreciate it. I also thank you for this.
This latest post of yours was interesting to read and I was happy to see you having answered my questions in it too.
With regards to your point about China's military
attachés, all nations have military attachés in nations with whom they've relations with. Won't they and their respective external intelligence service also be doing what the Chinese military attachés and the People's Republic of China [PRC]'s Ministry of State Security [MSS] do in their host nations?
With regards to the Chinese People's Liberation Army [PLA] [the including part is mine - including the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy [PLAN] and the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force [PLAAF]] applying in practice, don't you think it's insufficient?
And I'd like to respectfully disagree with you here with regards to your reply about their war with Vietnam.
I don't mean any disrespect or offence to you in the below-mentioned.
Yes, the Chinese People's Liberation Army [PLA] have applied in practice what they've learnt, but that practice would be different, in my opinion, from real-life combat scenarios which I think China doesn't have like India, Israel, Russia and America to name some, who have fought and continue to see combat, be it in terms of war/proxy war or insurgency/militancy/terrorism. If I may say so, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy [PLAN] has overtaken the US Navy [USN] as the world's largest navy, yet, it would be like having, if I may say so, having everything including theoretical knowledge, yet not having the practical experience of it, in this case, in combat.
In your opinion which Indian missile can penetrate and obliterate the operations cell of the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s Strategic Plans Division [SPD] including the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s nuclear weapons arsenal facilities/installations?
I could have asked this question to Bharat Karnad, but, I didn't in view of my experience with him with regards to my comments on his blog posts, which he usually approves, but, almost never answers them completely and gives instead a half-baked reply to say, only 1 or 2 out of my several comments on his blog posts due to my interest in national security/strategic affairs and related things and his knowledge about these things."
First Rafales were numbered RB-01 to RB-08 then subsequent Rafales were numbered BS009 onwards. I think that BS001 Tailcode pic is Photoshopped.But then loving reading an unbiased Unbashed view of the conflict . Can I also know how to register to ACIG website?
As announced on my Facebook account, since yesterday, I'm charging €200 for every additional 'reader's post', 'private message', 'e-mail' or any other kind of addressing me with an explanation that IAF Rafales are only wearing serials in range RB001 upwards.
Thus, you owe me 200 now. 🤭
(Don't worry: you're not alone, but about 5742nd person to do so...)
As for ACIG: amid relentless assaults by hackers, that forum is meanwhile 'invitation only'. Contact me per private message function if interested in joining.
Your analysis of Operation Sindoor and the IAF’s strikes on Kirana Hills was compelling. Multiple reports, including Indian sources and social media discussions, strongly suggest that the Pakistan Air Force was misled into targeting decoy drones, such as Lakshya and Banshee, which mimicked the radar signatures of Rafale and MiG-29K jets, rather than engaging actual IAF aircraft on May 7, 2025. Given this and no strong evidence of circulating photographs being not doctored, could you share your perspective on the strategic effectiveness of these decoy drones in deceiving PAF air defenses and shaping the operation’s success? How do you assess their role in exposing Pakistan’s radar and command systems?
This is an excellent (and highly important) topic. Would lie if saying I'm not already 'gathering related information' for related analysis. Just very busy this week, so not sure exactly when are results going to be 'released'... Please, have some patience with me.
Do you have any inside insights into PAF aircraft losses on the ground beyond the F-16 that was visible? Lots of satellite pictures of destroyed / severely damaged hangers, but it's hard to know just from satellite pictures what aircraft were present under a collapsed roof.
Sorry if this has been already discussed but, what about a picture of a Indian Rafale on a truck that looks from Pakistan? I can’t post it here, but it is on the social networks. Is it real or fake? Has it been taken in this present days’ conflict?
Hi Tom. I am confused. You have said that India effectively denuclearized the pakis. I also remember in one interview where you said the US is guarding paki nuclear weapons. And in another one of your interviews you had said that they can reopen kinara hill tunnels in a few days. If that is the case then the nuclear weapons should be back in play. What do you think?
Your whole conclusion that Pak was denuclarised is based on a single assumption that all of the nukes were in a same place, i highly doubt that its true since it would lead to a total collapse of Pakistani defences,in case kirana was carpet bombed.
Also, in my opinion and according to Indian CDS recent interview, india made tactical mistake ( his own words) and lost aircraft and then tbey were able to fly again after 2 days.
In my opinion, india is on backfoot as tbey had to use their expensive brahmos missiles to do some effective damage, while Pakistan only used GMLRS type guided rockets and didnt fire away their expensive stuff. IMO Pakistan still has more strategic depth remaining while India had to fire everything best it had in its Arsenal
Thank you so much Tom for these amazing posts. I want to dive more into the statement that “Pakistan has been disarmed in the nuclear domain”. To me there are two aspects to the nuclear question - Capability and Willingness. Capability is having the necessary tech and logistics to deploy a nuclear bomb. Are you saying that Pakistan has lost the capability to deploy a nuclear weapon or that India has called bluff on Pakistans willingness to exercise the nuclear option?
Destroying/denying a nuclear weapons storage facility might have the effect of having Pakistan simply making more dispersed storage and launch sites or causing them to panick next time and launch one...
Also, we still haven't seen concrete proof that the IAF shot down anything in the 2019 incident.... No Pakistani jets going "missing", no Pakistani pilots mysteriously dying in "training accidents" around that time, nothing. We're half a decade out and still nothing verifiable.
Oh, that's 'simple':
- do you have a list of all the Pakistani pilots fully qualified to fly F-16s as of February 2019?
- and then another one, as for, say, March 2019?
- Have you got a list of every single F-16 ever delivered to Pakistan and its final fate or current condition?
I do not.
...though, 'doubts' of this kind are prompting me into assembling at least the latter list.
Is likely to result in a similar experience like about a decade ago, when I've assembled a list of Israeli Mirage III/5s, and then it turned out that the final whereabouts of some 20 airframes are 'unknown'...
I look forward to your findings.
Sure. BTW, what's with your answers?
Have you got a list of PAF pilots before and after the 'Balakot Affairs'?
Nope. I have a feeling if I started asking those questions I'd get hit with a travel ban immediately...
The other option would be to purchase quite a lot of satellite images of PAF bases and slowly count the F-16s before and after Balakot.
Just 'counting F-16s on sat photos' is not going to help: one needs a list of every single airframe, based on their serial numbers, and the date on which the photo was taken.
The last I did something of that kind with Iranian F-14As, some 7-8 years ago: counted over 60 (though 'available as of 2008-2015').
But then first Rafales were numbered RB-01 to RB-08 then subsequent Rafales were numbered BS009 onwards.
DG ISPR comments with timestamps (most important evidence) and presence of more than 1 explosion videos multiple parachutes, prove more than 1 jet went down. Also IAF still has higher credibility with respect to their press releases (-kirana hills now) so their radar data appears credible.
https://theprint.in/defence/8-pieces-of-clinching-evidence-that-show-how-iafs-abhinandan-shot-down-a-pakistani-f-16/278752/?amp
Regarding IAF losses this time being above 4 but without pilot loss, seems too lucky scenario.
Nature of targets imply use of aircrafts only for Muridke and Bahawalpur. So loss in Bhatinda seems possible, but then is BS001 image authentic, if not, then why would enemy share a fake image and potentially discredit an actual loss.
Ah I've read that linked article before. It still doesn't address a dead PAF pilot or a missing F-16. Also, the author is absolutely not a neutral source, sorry to say. The radar track data simply means the AWACS lost "sight" of an aircraft.
Furthermore, the PAF put on a glitzy show where they present that the Mig-21 came down with every single missile still on it's rail.
https://youtu.be/RYLcCzE4WIM?si=sUZS9WE0e0DK7NV0
And a foreign academic concurs the Mig-21 didn't shoot down anything that day.
https://m.thewire.in/article/security/christine-fair-iaf-balakot-pakistan-f16
As does this man (hardly a screaming anti national)
https://caravanmagazine.in/security/balakot-failure-modi-victory
As I've written before, hiding dead pilots and crashed jets isn't easy and you'll usually see "Pilot X died in a training accident while piloting the same je" that the other side claims as shot down.
Meanwhile, here's an example of a press releases about a pilot that's MIA although in all likelihood KiA. His body wasn't recovered until 2009.
https://web.archive.org/web/20071014022257/http://www.defenselink.mil/releases/release.aspx?releaseid=2804
So, we have a 6+ year long game of "he said / she said" where the Pakistani claims are backed up be a captured pilot and plane wreckage and the Indian claims are backed up by a personal account, radar tracks and pixel peeping in videos.
If Mr. Cooper is similar comes out tomorrow with evidence of a downed F-16, I and many others will readjust our opinions in light of new evidence.
"the author is absolutely not a neutral source"
- not about author, about points he says, evidence does show videos more than 1 missiles fired and contacts. ispr briefings themselves actually happened as quoted. ispr as I said, is the biggest clue, that they captured more than 1 pilots, then retracted the story.
"PAF put on a glitzy show where they present that the Mig-21 came down with every single missile still on it's rail"
- look again one missile is completely intact out of 4, trust pakistani's to source from black market and put one completely intact in the show. for a country whose main weapon is propaganda how difficult it is to procure missiles and put in a show, days later, not same day.
https://youtu.be/RYLcCzE4WIM?si=sUZS9WE0e0DK7NV0
And a foreign academic concurs the Mig-21 didn't shoot down anything that day.
- does not mean much for obvious reasons as mentioned below. not all foreign academics do not take money from vested sources.
https://m.thewire.in/article/security/christine-fair-iaf-balakot-pakistan-f16
- https://www.opindia.com/2022/10/the-wire-retracts-meta-story-which-was-based-on-fake-evidence/
- wire is top leftist propaganda website
As does this man (hardly a screaming anti national)
https://caravanmagazine.in/security/balakot-failure-modi-victory
- https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/how-five-news-outlets-joined-forces-broadcast-indian-elections-result-help-audience-funding
- belongs to exactly same tribe, same goals.
As I've written before, hiding dead pilots and crashed jets isn't easy and you'll usually see "Pilot X died in a training accident while piloting the same je" that the other side claims as shot down.
- fair enough, but 100s of pakistan army soldiers died in Kargil, they refused to take bodies, there is not much news later who were they, nor their public cares, country is not exactly a democracy. its an army having a country.
Meanwhile, here's an example of a press releases about a pilot that's MIA although in all likelihood KiA. His body wasn't recovered until 2009.
https://web.archive.org/web/20071014022257/http://www.defenselink.mil/releases/release.aspx?releaseid=2804
So, we have a 6+ year long game of "he said / she said" where the Pakistani claims are backed up be a captured pilot and plane wreckage and the Indian claims are backed up by a personal account, radar tracks and pixel peeping in videos.
- how does a captured Mig pilot and mig's wreckage make any sense in a debate about whether a F-16 was lost or not. no one is claiming said f-16 didn't shoot mig.
- claims are backed, by enemy's own statements (ispr), radar tracks of a relatively trustworthy org., and yes many pixel peeping videos.
If Mr. Cooper is similar comes out tomorrow with evidence of a downed F-16, I and many others will readjust our opinions in light of new evidence.
Asim Munir was already more powerful than the PM (President is kind of a ceremonial post). Now that he is made field marshal, no doubt he is more powerful than others.
Thanks for another great post. Not sure if you’re already planning a post on this, but I’d love to see your analysis and conclusions regarding what the actual aircraft losses were on both sides, both in the air and on the ground. Clearly both sides have an incentive to lie about what their actual losses were, so we can’t trust the “official” loss figures.
I'm sure Mr. Cooper is already gathering the data for this.
Thanks for the heads-up on the Helion offer! Now if only there were no Brexit, damn custom duties :|
I am intrigued by your painting (in addition to the writing , do you ever sleep?), very impressive! Just wondering , do you do this by hand or on the computer?
By hand on computer. Start with linedrawings, then add a layer after layer...
The Pakistani nuclear arsenal storage basing seems easy to contain in a country with a limited landmass and self induced mil security problem of jihadism, an "all eggs in single basket" situation to maintain opn security and control.
The Indians have "check" control as in chess. Good update on the Pakistani-Indian War of 2025.
Greetings and Good Morning from India, Tom!
First and foremost, I'm extremely grateful to you for answering my questions. I appreciate it. I also thank you for this.
This latest post of yours was interesting to read and I was happy to see you having answered my questions in it too.
With regards to your point about China's military
attachés, all nations have military attachés in nations with whom they've relations with. Won't they and their respective external intelligence service also be doing what the Chinese military attachés and the People's Republic of China [PRC]'s Ministry of State Security [MSS] do in their host nations?
With regards to the Chinese People's Liberation Army [PLA] [the including part is mine - including the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy [PLAN] and the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force [PLAAF]] applying in practice, don't you think it's insufficient?
And I'd like to respectfully disagree with you here with regards to your reply about their war with Vietnam.
I don't mean any disrespect or offence to you in the below-mentioned.
Yes, the Chinese People's Liberation Army [PLA] have applied in practice what they've learnt, but that practice would be different, in my opinion, from real-life combat scenarios which I think China doesn't have like India, Israel, Russia and America to name some, who have fought and continue to see combat, be it in terms of war/proxy war or insurgency/militancy/terrorism. If I may say so, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy [PLAN] has overtaken the US Navy [USN] as the world's largest navy, yet, it would be like having, if I may say so, having everything including theoretical knowledge, yet not having the practical experience of it, in this case, in combat.
I'm repeating a question of mine from Saturday, May 17, 2025 which I asked you on your post "India-Pakistan, Additional Details, Part 2 & Q&A" at https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/india-pakistan-additional-details-d94/comment/117899786 in inverted commas below. I'd appreciate it if you could please answer it when you've the time for it.
"The Indian analyst Bharat Karnad [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharat_Karnad] in his recent blog post "Nuclear aspects of Sindoor, Trump re-hyphenates India, Pakistan, etc: Interview with Rediff" [https://bharatkarnad.com/2025/05/14/nuclear-aspects-of-sindoor-trump-re-hyphenates-india-pakistan-etc-interview-with-rediff] says "Indian missile attack on Chaklala - HQ Strategic Plans Division - Pakistan's nuclear secretariat, may have been a wake up call. But the ops cell of SPD is situated underground which the Indian missile could not have, and was not, designed to penetrate."
In your opinion which Indian missile can penetrate and obliterate the operations cell of the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s Strategic Plans Division [SPD] including the Armed Forces of Pakistan [AFP]'s nuclear weapons arsenal facilities/installations?
I could have asked this question to Bharat Karnad, but, I didn't in view of my experience with him with regards to my comments on his blog posts, which he usually approves, but, almost never answers them completely and gives instead a half-baked reply to say, only 1 or 2 out of my several comments on his blog posts due to my interest in national security/strategic affairs and related things and his knowledge about these things."
I wish you a happy weekend.
Interesting 🧐
First Rafales were numbered RB-01 to RB-08 then subsequent Rafales were numbered BS009 onwards. I think that BS001 Tailcode pic is Photoshopped.But then loving reading an unbiased Unbashed view of the conflict . Can I also know how to register to ACIG website?
As announced on my Facebook account, since yesterday, I'm charging €200 for every additional 'reader's post', 'private message', 'e-mail' or any other kind of addressing me with an explanation that IAF Rafales are only wearing serials in range RB001 upwards.
Thus, you owe me 200 now. 🤭
(Don't worry: you're not alone, but about 5742nd person to do so...)
As for ACIG: amid relentless assaults by hackers, that forum is meanwhile 'invitation only'. Contact me per private message function if interested in joining.
Dear Mr. Cooper,
Your analysis of Operation Sindoor and the IAF’s strikes on Kirana Hills was compelling. Multiple reports, including Indian sources and social media discussions, strongly suggest that the Pakistan Air Force was misled into targeting decoy drones, such as Lakshya and Banshee, which mimicked the radar signatures of Rafale and MiG-29K jets, rather than engaging actual IAF aircraft on May 7, 2025. Given this and no strong evidence of circulating photographs being not doctored, could you share your perspective on the strategic effectiveness of these decoy drones in deceiving PAF air defenses and shaping the operation’s success? How do you assess their role in exposing Pakistan’s radar and command systems?
This is an excellent (and highly important) topic. Would lie if saying I'm not already 'gathering related information' for related analysis. Just very busy this week, so not sure exactly when are results going to be 'released'... Please, have some patience with me.
Do you have any inside insights into PAF aircraft losses on the ground beyond the F-16 that was visible? Lots of satellite pictures of destroyed / severely damaged hangers, but it's hard to know just from satellite pictures what aircraft were present under a collapsed roof.
Sorry if this has been already discussed but, what about a picture of a Indian Rafale on a truck that looks from Pakistan? I can’t post it here, but it is on the social networks. Is it real or fake? Has it been taken in this present days’ conflict?
I will replay myself, looking at the dimensions of the plane and the truck,and other details, it seems to be another fake
A Chinese hoax.
Hi Tom. I am confused. You have said that India effectively denuclearized the pakis. I also remember in one interview where you said the US is guarding paki nuclear weapons. And in another one of your interviews you had said that they can reopen kinara hill tunnels in a few days. If that is the case then the nuclear weapons should be back in play. What do you think?
Not sure if you are looking at a rather large "drone" wreckage on Pakistani media from 7th/8th of May in a town called Dinga, Gujrat Pakistan.
Read your facebook post . You talked about PAF losses there.
1 Mirage (sub-variant unclear, shot down on 9 May);
1 Mirage 5 (probably shot down on 9 May);
1 JF-17C (shot down on 7 May);
Where are the wreckage sites of each of the above incidents.
Doubling down on one more question . Can a SAAB erieye evade a 40N6 missile fired by a S400 system.
At the absolute edge of its engagement envelope and with warning a few seconds after launch, maybe.
Fwiw the PAF only operates, to my knowledge, the Mirage 5 at this time.
Your whole conclusion that Pak was denuclarised is based on a single assumption that all of the nukes were in a same place, i highly doubt that its true since it would lead to a total collapse of Pakistani defences,in case kirana was carpet bombed.
Also, in my opinion and according to Indian CDS recent interview, india made tactical mistake ( his own words) and lost aircraft and then tbey were able to fly again after 2 days.
In my opinion, india is on backfoot as tbey had to use their expensive brahmos missiles to do some effective damage, while Pakistan only used GMLRS type guided rockets and didnt fire away their expensive stuff. IMO Pakistan still has more strategic depth remaining while India had to fire everything best it had in its Arsenal
Thank you so much Tom for these amazing posts. I want to dive more into the statement that “Pakistan has been disarmed in the nuclear domain”. To me there are two aspects to the nuclear question - Capability and Willingness. Capability is having the necessary tech and logistics to deploy a nuclear bomb. Are you saying that Pakistan has lost the capability to deploy a nuclear weapon or that India has called bluff on Pakistans willingness to exercise the nuclear option?