Hello everybody! Originally, this came into being as a sort of a ‘supplement’ to my ‘update’ published earlier today. Then it grew, and grew … until I decided to post it as a separate feature…. The last few weeks, reports and assessments began appearing in the social media according to which the Russian Armed Forces (VSRF) have significantly improved their so-called ‘reconnaissance-strike chain’ - at least on the tactical level.
Thanks for maybe the most useful report about the topic. Actually you also answered the question that captured my mind for weeks, namely a reason of suspended Patriot shots combo. Honestly if they simply short of missles it is not the worst option, because they can be bought or supplied in perspective. But if Russians created much more effective electronic contr measures, it would be much, much worse. Only SAM that could halt fully VKS Kab offensive would be Typhon with SM 6, but there is enormously small chance of supply in perspective of year or 2.
Thanks again Tom an interesting report and for me it cleared so things up., if I'm understanding this its not the Russians improved its system as much as they are just trying to target more and got it right a few times and I have to say if the 138th guys were sitting one spot of 3 hrs what the hell do they expect , that would be dumb not good training or following training but what do I know
US is not reliable with the election comming up. Maybe one of the big Europeean countrys needs too step up...... before they need help from outside like always :-)
Solid write up. You should have worked for us in 1-5th FA in the targeting cell, you definitely have the mindset for it. Excellent points on the location situation and how that really effects things. Nothing is ever simple, and it's never as simple as you think it should or would be.
See Tom's post from 20 March, he speculates this is the southern prong of a wide envelopment of the Toretsk area. The northern prong being out of Bahmut to Chasiv Yar.
Tom, you several times mention Myrhorod (Poltava region) but mean Myrnohrad (Donetsk region)
Thx. I'll see to correct.
We who read this channel are the privileged. Nobody writing in the newspapers has anything like Tom's ability to analyse this conflict.
Thanks for maybe the most useful report about the topic. Actually you also answered the question that captured my mind for weeks, namely a reason of suspended Patriot shots combo. Honestly if they simply short of missles it is not the worst option, because they can be bought or supplied in perspective. But if Russians created much more effective electronic contr measures, it would be much, much worse. Only SAM that could halt fully VKS Kab offensive would be Typhon with SM 6, but there is enormously small chance of supply in perspective of year or 2.
In this case they will bomb frontline with kabs and kill so many people that no way to hold the line
Thanks again Tom an interesting report and for me it cleared so things up., if I'm understanding this its not the Russians improved its system as much as they are just trying to target more and got it right a few times and I have to say if the 138th guys were sitting one spot of 3 hrs what the hell do they expect , that would be dumb not good training or following training but what do I know
Mind: shit happens at war. Sometimes things simply go wrong, no matter how careful is one.
That was the case with that one convoy sitting there for 3+ hours.
....and is also the reason why it's not happening more often.
If Ukraine does not get a help from US it will be very hard to hold a line
EU has enough power to help Ukraine not to held the line only, but to win the war, too. EU has enough power, but has not found enough will, yet.
Delivery of Taurus + allow use them on Russia area will help a lot.
Cluster warhead ATACMS missiles are great for attacking airfields with parked aircraft if the US supplies them in huge quantities.
US is not reliable with the election comming up. Maybe one of the big Europeean countrys needs too step up...... before they need help from outside like always :-)
Solid write up. You should have worked for us in 1-5th FA in the targeting cell, you definitely have the mindset for it. Excellent points on the location situation and how that really effects things. Nothing is ever simple, and it's never as simple as you think it should or would be.
Apologies for my non-native English, but could you please explain what does "FA" abbreviation stand for?
Field Artillery
Excellent article. The informants angle makes the most sense
It`s about time ZSU do the thing, where it force all civilians out of front line regions.
There are to many pro-Russian people or people easily to bribe.
Good analyze, that confirms oppinion of some Ukraine channels, that it`s intelligence leak.
Excellent analysis.
One question..Why is RUS making this effort, here, in this direcuand not others?
See Tom's post from 20 March, he speculates this is the southern prong of a wide envelopment of the Toretsk area. The northern prong being out of Bahmut to Chasiv Yar.
Thank you! Kinda what I was thinking.
Spurred a bit by this brief discussion of Russia (hopes) of deep battle in the ISW piece fein13 FEB.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2024
Ug. Direction.
informants in Ukraine about what? Which frontline villages to hit?