All this is true. But: 1. When analyzing some actions retroactively, having a lot of accompanying information, it is easy to look for mistakes. Now try to do it in real time. 2. The human factor is present in any business. And no one can ever know how this or that person will behave in an environment where it is necessary to make responsible decisions. 3. Where is the guarantee that replacing one manager with another will correct, and not worsen the situation? No one can answer this question.
That said: this continuous bolstering of failures is indicative of systemic incompetence. So much so that the charcters in question actually belong being fired at the spot, if not prosecuted for treachery.
On the other: it's only now, when everything else has failed, the Ukrainian political leadership began comprehending how is 'the West' actually functioning. Which is why, since a few days, they're 'winking' the 'flag of Ukrainian mineral wealth'. I.e. showing maps of what kind of ore and gas and whatever else is already exploited, or in can be exploited, and where in Ukraine. Only now are they pointing out: see there, the Europe's biggest lithium mine is west of Pokrovsk...
That's 32-33 years late.
All the Ukrainian leaders - all the top politicians plus much of parliament etc. - have catastrophically failed. So much so, I would collect and arrest all of them (whether for treachery, corruption or whatever), then put them into a big hall, and let them fight it out until they agree between themselves who is to blame. The characters in question would get 20 years prison, the rest 'just' 5-10.
And re. 'where is the guarantee': there is none. One is replacing them until finding the right one.
...anything is better than sticking to the 'loser team'.
"All the Ukrainian leaders - all the top politicians plus much of parliament etc. - have catastrophically failed. So much so, I would collect and arrest all of them (whether for treachery, corruption or whatever), then put them into a big hall, and let them fight it out until they agree between themselves who is to blame. The characters in question would get 20 years prison, the rest 'just' 5-10."
Substitute "American" in place of "Ukrainian" and the "Congress and Presidency" in place of "parliament" in your aforementioned comment, and you have just described the U. S. political system to a Tee!
Indeed - this applies to most all, if not all the ‘West’. I include my own country Canada in this. And it’s not just now, it has happened before. Complacency, petty bickering, wedge politics, trying to bribe people with their own tax money. Yet the ‘West’ has proven it can get its act together. But frankly, that was a long time ago? Can we face the music and get our act together? Trump is right on one point and one point only - Zelenskyy is a very good salesman.
Yes. Sickening that Biden presents us as Ukraine's 'saviors', when, by withholding weapons that could have ended this long ago, and restricting the use ofn those given that, in an objective international court, would find us complicit in genocide.
"The characters in question would get 20 years prison, the rest 'just' 5-10."
I would just like to point out that here in the Czech Republic we have a nice, centuries-old tradition in our politics (but neglected for the last 400 years): defenestrations.
Fortunately (or not), the famous Prague defenestration only led to a sore bum. Clearly, the Czech have never mastered the Russian "deadly ground floor window" method.
Some nasty things are discovered în retrospective. And theyare still present.
The Ukrainian generals and governors fought lonely battles în February-April 2022. There were Russian lines of communications between Chernihiv and Sumy and between Sumy and Harkov which went to Kiev. These Russian LOC were never seriously threatened by combine Ukrainian units. Each general sat în his city and boasted how he fights some Russian screening units.
Mariupol was not helped by Ukrainian units în Donbas.
The mayor of Kerson told the Ukrainian soldiers to fuck off somewhere else even though the town had ideal defenses.
This individual mentality continues today. Elite people don't go to the frontline. Bucha was renovated because it was a well-to-do place near Kiev. Still there is no construction program of social housing for the refugees. Recruiters beat up conscripts without any consequence. Doctors take huge bribe for military exemptions without being handled a rifle and sent to the frontline.
I think that some of your questions are relatively misleadinf. Of course it is more easy to analyse actions retrospectively when you have more information and better time to think. That is not much of a question. However, while we should acknowledge that, ignoring or avoiding such analysis is always Dead wrong. Because you should try to learn and improve your performance. Making errors is unavoidable. Refusing to learn from them is unnacceptable. Regarding your comment 2, again yes. But if we see a person who doesnt behave optimal, or Even close to optimal in the work he/she is responsible for should we not remove that person from the job? Even if we, as you point out we cannot know who will perform better. There is hope for the new, not for the old. Your point 3 inducates we should be careful in choosing, but of course we never know. But if somebody does not perform, and does not improve? Change that person.
Any large system cannot be controlled by one person. The president of a country cannot give orders to every soldier. That is why there is a hierarchy of control. In order for such a system to work well, it is necessary to have competent people in each link of this system. Sorry, but this is impossible. Therefore, there are no perfectly working systems.
Replacing one of the links in the chain will in any case cause temporary paralysis of the entire chain, since the new person needs to understand the situation. In wartime, this can easily end in disaster.
1. Do you have specific proposals? who to exchange for whom in Ukraine? And a mechanism for how this can be done. 2. I would advise my comrades from the West to start by changing their impotent idiots who have been supplying (and continue to supply) cannibalistic regimes with technology for many years.
Not changing anyone is cementing failure. You don't know who is growing to meet the challenge inthe first place. If you fire enough, lame people get hesitant, because they most likely lose their status if promoted, while competent people can strive.
Once again: Zelensky’s irremovability is blamed for everything here. How and with whom do you propose to change it? For reference: Zelensky can only be changed through popular elections. Tell us how you see this procedure at a time when the very existence of the country is in question.
Actually I am talking about Zelensky should replace his generals, like Lincoln did. If he doesn't, then you need someone else and I am aware of the situation, that that won't happen during the war.
Take a look at the big picture. Not some analytical business model analogy. The reaction to Hitler and, 80 years later the reaction to Puke, while Li sucks up country after country with economic dependencies and doing what he can to keep this insane conflict going as long as possible. Humans are not evolving, they are imploding on a world wide scale.
Ben Hodges, in 2014, told Obama and his DOD that not stopping Putin then would green light him to do even more and they shut him down; and still are. Golding got it right a long time ago in the scariest reality based book I have ever read; Lord of the Flies. Do not want to be a downer but, basically, it is reasonable to say, regarding the future for humans, that 'we are fucked'.
The reason is that the majority of people are stupid. That is why in democratic countries they vote for populists. There is only one alternative to this - dictatorship with all its charms. There are no other options. There is only one way out - raising the educational and cultural level of the population. But neither democracy nor dictatorship is interested in this. A dead end.
As a person from within the country this is very painful to read, because not only all of this is true but there's even more problems then people of outside think or know. They probably still think of our prezident as of a hero when inside the country his rating is very low by now. There's also a problem of not letting any bad news from the front to the general populace so the TV is always in "We're winning" mode and telling how many this and that our "allies" pledged to us and how it's going to change the war, while spending ever so big amount of funds for that when those money could be very well spent on actually helping the ZSU, because there are still no meaningful production of anything army needs. And that "winning plan" of his is just ridiculous, the equivalent of saying - I don't have a plan. Yeah, moral isn't there as you can see. And I don't even want to start on corruption, high bills, and splitting the country with their idiotic laws in general, especially one that ban the specific churches when nearly half of the Ukrainians are members of those specific churches.
"They probably still think of our prezident as of a hero when inside the country his rating is very low by now."
I don't think that the Ukraine War is very much on the radar of American public opinion right now. This is foolish; I know! The election and Israel's current war are more visible on the Boob Tube (TV) and in the major on-line news sources. Americans seem to be more concerned about the economy and immigration mostly based upon misinformation and Trump's inveterate lying. The U.S. economy is better than most people think (yes, highly imperfect and problematical here and there). The immigration crisis is based mostly, but not totally upon Trump's inveterate lying and the refusal of the Republican Party, on Trump's orders, to develop a bi-partisan plan with the Democrats to address responsibly and effectively immigration to the United States.
Honestly I never expected much from the US, they are far away, there's no real threat to them yet so this war is not their concern, there is a possibility of that when Ru and China capture few more countries and get closer to them, but until than this is just the echo on the horizon. For now they can play in geopolitics. Sure, there is some treaty's, alliances, big hips of promises and concerns, strong words of "Democracy, support and unity", but all of that doesn't have real substance, just words and some ink on the parchment that doesn't lead to any obligations. If anything it's EU who has to be concerned, because for them the threat is much more real and no NATO will shield them from bombs falling on their heads, it will be too little to late by that time and it's better to stop them here and now. But oh well, we never see the threat until it's already at ours doorstep do we? My country and people know it all too well.
I think what you have described, unfortunately, is typical of human nature: refuse to recognize a growing problem (i.e., continue to live in denial) until it confronts you face-to-face.
I have some friends who are thoughtful, educated, and to the best of my knowledge not MAGA-crazies who ascribe essentially to the Sphere's of Interest model of international relations. So naturally they are not committed ideologically toward Ukraine's sovereignty and membership in what might loosely be called the Democratic Republics (and re: the U.K. Constitutional Monarchy) of the World. I think that the American version of Spheres of Interest ideology might be a form of traditional American isolationism, a very powerful narcotic heretofore (a nice way of saying prior to Trump) subsumed into the mass unconsciousness of the American polity/electorate.
Of course Trump has turned this into MAGA and therefore f*** you in the rest of the world unless you have something that benefits us! What a f***ing moron! I can handle being resented or even hated for being an American, but Trump makes me embarassed to be an American. **LOL**
This would suggest the point of view that Russia has a "natural" Sphere of Interest just as the U.S. has . . . European nations have . . . China has . . . . I no longer hold this POV and haven't for quite some time, but I have been no fan of U.S. unilateralism either. I too had succumbed to this POV when the Soviet Union fell (seemingly temporarily), but I no longer believe in it as an absolute criterion that should form a continuing basis of U.S. foreign policy.
Add to this is my notion that for the first time since WWII the U.S. has a client nation-state (Ukraine) who is worthy of our support, and that it is both the U.S.'s and NATO's vital (national) interests to support the sovereignty of Ukraine even in the face of the indomitable Russian Bear. All of the U.S.'s other clients post-WWII have been losers until Ukraine--even the So. Koreans, although they managed to reform their gov't polity and society successfully since the Korean War armistice.*** Perhaps I am wrong about Ukraine too. I hope to hell I am not!
***So. Korea & the U.S./UN forces complex vs. No. Korea [and China?] technically remain in a state of war!
Tom, what you do here is incredibly important because none of this ever gets into the mainstream news in the EU or USA. This is a very sad situation, considering the brutal invasion and war crimes committed by Russia. The only upside is that Russia's military will not be competitive to the west for some time, even if they can rebuild the lost masses of materiel already expended. But Ukraine is not going to be able to contribute as much as it should to that end with the current leadership.....
Are the NATO land forces actually efective or at least superior to the current Russian ones? NATO (actually US) air force can stop a Russian attack but it can not guarantee a succesfull NATO offensive.
NATO defense industry can barely support a Ukrainian force which is starving for ammunition.
Actually Europe and US are major weapons manufactureres, and a very small fraction of what they're creating goes to Ukraine. Artillery shells are one of the notable exceptions where there's well-known shortage.
"Moreover, and tragically, feeling himself ‘confirmed’ that his ‘no step back’-orders are ‘working’, Zelensky continued issuing ever more of the same."
Adolf Hitler routinely issued no retreat/no surrender orders that, for example, wrecked the German 6th Army in Russia. The 6th Army was perhaps one of the greatest armies ever in Western Civilization! So much for a modern nation's civilian leader learning from history. Then again, I conclude from your post that Ukrainian general officer leadership is not so good either.
I also was wondering . . . is it even possible to impose a wholesale reform of a nation's military in the midst of a war of attrition such as the Ukraine war? Reformation is an onerous and difficult process. One has to rid his nation's armed forces of a generation or two of leaders who are "stuck in the old ways." Also, with respect to Ukraine's armed forces, how far down the pecking order is reformation necessary? All the way to the NCO level????? On the other hand, I get the impression that Ukraine's small unit leadership is pretty good. Again, can this be accomplished during a war? I am not referring to having to adjust to circumstances that arise in combat. All competent armies must do this as a routine. I perceive that you are calling for a wholesale reformation of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Good luck with that! I find myself in a particular pessimisitic mood this morning. It's that damned U.S. Presidential election that is affecting me so negatively--sorry.
'Imposing' such a plan - from abroad - is de-facto impossible. Which is why Ukraine must initiate such reforms from within.
The current admin, and the current command of the ZSU have done their best to prove: they can't do so.
Re. how far down under: to brigade- and, where necessary, battalion-level. Yes, the small unit leadership is meanwhile, largely, excellent (at least in some 15-20 brigades coming to my mind, right away).
And it's no question of if this can be accomplished at war. It simply must. Because (and contrary to Israel, just for example), Ukraine is facing a war of extermination. So, the alternatives are: quick and complete reform, or losing war and thus the country and nation.
>> flooding by mining a dam on the Dnipro Reservoir – which, actually, could’ve been done right at the start of the war, on a timely order from the top of the ZSU and thus avoiding losses of the 72nd
- This was an extremely counterintuitive solution - blasting a downstream dam to raise water level upstream of it. It kind of used the fact that the dam was there to drive the river around the water reservoir which had higher level of water than the river. It's very likely that neither side considered such a step beforehand - till someone who knew the place in detail invented the trick, which probably happened when the fight was already desperate.
They did try to blow up the dam on 25 February, but failed. Just like they've screwed up with blowing up the bridge at Ivankyiv - thus letting the entire 35th CAA approach Kyiv without major problems (except that it had just one, four-lanes highway to do so).
The dam at the mouth of the Irpen River, where the river flows into the Kiev Reservoir, was blown up. The water level in the Kiev Reservoir is 6 meters higher than the level in the Irpen.
Do not forget, then many people, including many Russians and even Putin, though that Russians would revolt against mobilization. There was a Russian military analyst in their TV who said the war would win those who would be willing to strain more blood - and that Russians are not ready for that. (Later, he apologized.) They were all wrong. Even non-russians like Tatars, Burjats, etc. goes to die for the Tsar and money. They do not care about Ukraine, they just listen orders. What a nation, nobody expected that.
But the fist rule of war - hope for the best, prepare for the worst, was not listened in UA and the West, too.
That’s the problem if you go soft on criticism pertaining to military issues and officers. In this war there is NO space for hurt feelings or hurt pride because bumbling and stupidity equals death and dismemberment for the poor soldiers under their command. You learn your lesson and get better from that sharp lesson.
>> at least by that point in time, the ZSU – i.e. Zaluzhny (CinC ZSU at the time), Syrsky, and the GenStab-U – should have learned that ‘no step back’ is the worst idea, alone because the Russians could always continue *wasting dozens of thousands of troops* to get this or that place, or around it,
- As far as I remember, the Russian combat force was smaller than the Ukrainian at the time (June 2022) to the extent that Putin had to start mobilization of civilians in the autumn of 2022.
>> what idiot must anybody there in Kyiv be to come up with precisely the set of ideas that have already been turned down, and then expect NATO to change its mind? Where is such a decisionmaker coming from? The Dreamland? This is would be ridiculous even if anybody would try to use it as a script for some TV-comedy…
- This can be the act of preparing the Ukrainian society to surrender by showing them that the West they relied on has forsaken them.
And that will be used by Russian propaganda to brainwash Ukrainians against the West "See? The West left you helpless, you don't owe anything to these degenerates, come with us and avenge against their treasonous handling of your country etc".
I wouldn't want to see NATO facing enraged Ukrainian troops with plenty of heavy equipment and munitions...
In command-and-control societies it's impossible for the leadership to encourage a broad range of critical thinking amongst those it 'leads' because of the threat that would pose to its own position. Ukraine has not had the advantage of generations taking responsibility for decision-making, because for most of the last century it was part of an empire which actively discriminated against those who might do so.
Thus it's a country wishing it might be 'western' without the facility. Its leadership confuses salesmanship with statesmanship. So long as it can sell a heroic narrative to the West, it's done its job. And Western leaders are happily complicit in the scam, for the reasons you mention. Their people couldn't care less - for the most part - as happy narratives fill their media, and it's all a long way away (except for those much closer to the frontline who know and understand the full danger that Putin & allies represent).
Your analyses make often quite depressing reading as antidotes to the general euphoria; but please never change your critical style, as it's only by constant questioning that the Open Society can healthily develop.
I will continue to offer my tiny bit of support to various of the causes trying to provide succour to the brave souls actually battling on the ground - on behalf of all of us, if only we had the sense to realise.
Chris, all true, they had me with all the cute cat with soldier pics. The Russians knew what they would be fighting, hence the belief in a 3 day op. I'm afraid NATO also knew what was Ukraine's command & control capability, and didn't give them a chance. The story of the war is how the Russians mismanaged the whole thing, which only a few who really knew Russia expected. Lincoln went through the same frustrations until he found the generals who could win, but it took 4 years.
Indeed, if we were at the 'level 21 out of 100', back in September 2022, now we're back down to 'level 15', and can't find the way up even to the level 16....
By judging based on what is in Don's weeklies, it could be a matter of time.
Time not to win the war "on the battlefield" (that is basically impossible considered issues you just depicted), but to resist for a longer time than russian economy can without breaking up and crashing to pieces.
Point is: would the ZSU be able to continue trading (acceptable portions of) terrain for russian losses for approximately another 18 months (12 in optimum case)?
This only if and only if (and this is, sadly, everything but guaranteed) the "West" does not manage to screw up even sanctions and permits russian economy to breathe again.
1) Profits made on $300 billion of confiscated russian assets and potentially the assets themselves. 2) All the equipment 'pledged' but not yet delivered. 3) Any new 'pledged' equipment (probably at a lower rate than before).
On the russian side you have sanctions and soviet stocks of equipment running out.
the pipeline of western equipment and munitions is still full, and it will take time to dry, even if Trump gets elected and stops the US help to Ukraine.
Tom, watched your Youtube interview with Ukrainian journalist UKRLIFE with Lyudmila Nemirei. Do you have any contacts or possibility to go on air for example Telemarovofon or some leading Ukrainian channel. Where they would be able to voice everything that was in this article. If your statements gain a big resonance, perhaps there will be a shift in the command of the troops and the country. For example, Sodol was removed after being criticised by the military, but the court case was never opened.
have tried, for decades, to work with the mainstream media... have tried that often enough that I can only describe the experience as 'hairrising'.
One of last examples was actually with a Ukrainian TV channel, sometimes in April or May the last year. They didn't tell me we're live on TV until the program actually started. And then, when I've explained not to expect too much from the 'coming biiiiiiiiiig offensive', the anchor laughed and explained that I'm not particularly optimistic, but the Ukrainians are going to teach me better....
Thanks, but no thanks.
Ljudmila is an exception: an excellent researcher and presenter, curious about backgrounds and context. Not only asking fantastic, qualified questions, but also offering enough space for people like me to explain their standpoints.
Thus, she's an exception.
But, for me, that's where it ends: theoretically, I could post a video here on this blog. There are such functions. But, I'm not interested in doing that - and not curious in any 'fame'.
I have a field in which I find I'm good: written analysis. That's it.
Ouch! This hurts but your analysis is definitely being "cruel to be kind." Your conclusions explain much of the war situation "progress", of lack there of, thus far. Accordingly, let's hope for some nice light at the end of this very dark tunnel, eh? Fingers crossed.....
From your keyboard to Zelenskyy's and Syrskyi's ears.
And so, so many others. In particular the extraordinary idiocy in the brains of so, so many so called humans, that believe their bullshit.
All this is true. But: 1. When analyzing some actions retroactively, having a lot of accompanying information, it is easy to look for mistakes. Now try to do it in real time. 2. The human factor is present in any business. And no one can ever know how this or that person will behave in an environment where it is necessary to make responsible decisions. 3. Where is the guarantee that replacing one manager with another will correct, and not worsen the situation? No one can answer this question.
On one hand: yes, absolutely.
That said: this continuous bolstering of failures is indicative of systemic incompetence. So much so that the charcters in question actually belong being fired at the spot, if not prosecuted for treachery.
On the other: it's only now, when everything else has failed, the Ukrainian political leadership began comprehending how is 'the West' actually functioning. Which is why, since a few days, they're 'winking' the 'flag of Ukrainian mineral wealth'. I.e. showing maps of what kind of ore and gas and whatever else is already exploited, or in can be exploited, and where in Ukraine. Only now are they pointing out: see there, the Europe's biggest lithium mine is west of Pokrovsk...
That's 32-33 years late.
All the Ukrainian leaders - all the top politicians plus much of parliament etc. - have catastrophically failed. So much so, I would collect and arrest all of them (whether for treachery, corruption or whatever), then put them into a big hall, and let them fight it out until they agree between themselves who is to blame. The characters in question would get 20 years prison, the rest 'just' 5-10.
And re. 'where is the guarantee': there is none. One is replacing them until finding the right one.
...anything is better than sticking to the 'loser team'.
"All the Ukrainian leaders - all the top politicians plus much of parliament etc. - have catastrophically failed. So much so, I would collect and arrest all of them (whether for treachery, corruption or whatever), then put them into a big hall, and let them fight it out until they agree between themselves who is to blame. The characters in question would get 20 years prison, the rest 'just' 5-10."
Substitute "American" in place of "Ukrainian" and the "Congress and Presidency" in place of "parliament" in your aforementioned comment, and you have just described the U. S. political system to a Tee!
Indeed - this applies to most all, if not all the ‘West’. I include my own country Canada in this. And it’s not just now, it has happened before. Complacency, petty bickering, wedge politics, trying to bribe people with their own tax money. Yet the ‘West’ has proven it can get its act together. But frankly, that was a long time ago? Can we face the music and get our act together? Trump is right on one point and one point only - Zelenskyy is a very good salesman.
Yes. Sickening that Biden presents us as Ukraine's 'saviors', when, by withholding weapons that could have ended this long ago, and restricting the use ofn those given that, in an objective international court, would find us complicit in genocide.
"The characters in question would get 20 years prison, the rest 'just' 5-10."
I would just like to point out that here in the Czech Republic we have a nice, centuries-old tradition in our politics (but neglected for the last 400 years): defenestrations.
Like in Russia? ;-)
I'm against capital punishment.
Fortunately (or not), the famous Prague defenestration only led to a sore bum. Clearly, the Czech have never mastered the Russian "deadly ground floor window" method.
Let me guess: contrary to Russia, you do not install your windows at the bottom of some longer stairs...? :P
Or make them drink tea first :)
If you were the trial judge what consequence would you rule for in cases like Putin, Netanyahu and Biden and their like?
Started wars that one didnt it? And they Even survived….
Compared to the cowardly and impotent Western so-called “leaders,” the Ukrainians don’t look so bad.
....just that the Westerners are not facing a war of extermination.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland (the list goes on) are the next candidates for destruction. Is it the West or not the West?
No, that's *Eastern* Europe
West will be "extremely disturbed" if ru jets will bomb Warsaw or Tallinn
May be more so than most realize.
Some nasty things are discovered în retrospective. And theyare still present.
The Ukrainian generals and governors fought lonely battles în February-April 2022. There were Russian lines of communications between Chernihiv and Sumy and between Sumy and Harkov which went to Kiev. These Russian LOC were never seriously threatened by combine Ukrainian units. Each general sat în his city and boasted how he fights some Russian screening units.
Mariupol was not helped by Ukrainian units în Donbas.
The mayor of Kerson told the Ukrainian soldiers to fuck off somewhere else even though the town had ideal defenses.
This individual mentality continues today. Elite people don't go to the frontline. Bucha was renovated because it was a well-to-do place near Kiev. Still there is no construction program of social housing for the refugees. Recruiters beat up conscripts without any consequence. Doctors take huge bribe for military exemptions without being handled a rifle and sent to the frontline.
I think that some of your questions are relatively misleadinf. Of course it is more easy to analyse actions retrospectively when you have more information and better time to think. That is not much of a question. However, while we should acknowledge that, ignoring or avoiding such analysis is always Dead wrong. Because you should try to learn and improve your performance. Making errors is unavoidable. Refusing to learn from them is unnacceptable. Regarding your comment 2, again yes. But if we see a person who doesnt behave optimal, or Even close to optimal in the work he/she is responsible for should we not remove that person from the job? Even if we, as you point out we cannot know who will perform better. There is hope for the new, not for the old. Your point 3 inducates we should be careful in choosing, but of course we never know. But if somebody does not perform, and does not improve? Change that person.
Any large system cannot be controlled by one person. The president of a country cannot give orders to every soldier. That is why there is a hierarchy of control. In order for such a system to work well, it is necessary to have competent people in each link of this system. Sorry, but this is impossible. Therefore, there are no perfectly working systems.
Replacing one of the links in the chain will in any case cause temporary paralysis of the entire chain, since the new person needs to understand the situation. In wartime, this can easily end in disaster.
You are guaranteed to fail again, if you don't try changing the person in charge.
1. Do you have specific proposals? who to exchange for whom in Ukraine? And a mechanism for how this can be done. 2. I would advise my comrades from the West to start by changing their impotent idiots who have been supplying (and continue to supply) cannibalistic regimes with technology for many years.
Not changing anyone is cementing failure. You don't know who is growing to meet the challenge inthe first place. If you fire enough, lame people get hesitant, because they most likely lose their status if promoted, while competent people can strive.
Once again: Zelensky’s irremovability is blamed for everything here. How and with whom do you propose to change it? For reference: Zelensky can only be changed through popular elections. Tell us how you see this procedure at a time when the very existence of the country is in question.
Actually I am talking about Zelensky should replace his generals, like Lincoln did. If he doesn't, then you need someone else and I am aware of the situation, that that won't happen during the war.
And where will Zelensky find these generals? Will he get it from the table? Everyone who can fight has been in the army for a long time!
Take a look at the big picture. Not some analytical business model analogy. The reaction to Hitler and, 80 years later the reaction to Puke, while Li sucks up country after country with economic dependencies and doing what he can to keep this insane conflict going as long as possible. Humans are not evolving, they are imploding on a world wide scale.
Ben Hodges, in 2014, told Obama and his DOD that not stopping Putin then would green light him to do even more and they shut him down; and still are. Golding got it right a long time ago in the scariest reality based book I have ever read; Lord of the Flies. Do not want to be a downer but, basically, it is reasonable to say, regarding the future for humans, that 'we are fucked'.
The reason is that the majority of people are stupid. That is why in democratic countries they vote for populists. There is only one alternative to this - dictatorship with all its charms. There are no other options. There is only one way out - raising the educational and cultural level of the population. But neither democracy nor dictatorship is interested in this. A dead end.
concur
Tough words, but needed. One can only hope that somebody in UA will listen
not a chance...
brilliant
As a person from within the country this is very painful to read, because not only all of this is true but there's even more problems then people of outside think or know. They probably still think of our prezident as of a hero when inside the country his rating is very low by now. There's also a problem of not letting any bad news from the front to the general populace so the TV is always in "We're winning" mode and telling how many this and that our "allies" pledged to us and how it's going to change the war, while spending ever so big amount of funds for that when those money could be very well spent on actually helping the ZSU, because there are still no meaningful production of anything army needs. And that "winning plan" of his is just ridiculous, the equivalent of saying - I don't have a plan. Yeah, moral isn't there as you can see. And I don't even want to start on corruption, high bills, and splitting the country with their idiotic laws in general, especially one that ban the specific churches when nearly half of the Ukrainians are members of those specific churches.
"They probably still think of our prezident as of a hero when inside the country his rating is very low by now."
I don't think that the Ukraine War is very much on the radar of American public opinion right now. This is foolish; I know! The election and Israel's current war are more visible on the Boob Tube (TV) and in the major on-line news sources. Americans seem to be more concerned about the economy and immigration mostly based upon misinformation and Trump's inveterate lying. The U.S. economy is better than most people think (yes, highly imperfect and problematical here and there). The immigration crisis is based mostly, but not totally upon Trump's inveterate lying and the refusal of the Republican Party, on Trump's orders, to develop a bi-partisan plan with the Democrats to address responsibly and effectively immigration to the United States.
Honestly I never expected much from the US, they are far away, there's no real threat to them yet so this war is not their concern, there is a possibility of that when Ru and China capture few more countries and get closer to them, but until than this is just the echo on the horizon. For now they can play in geopolitics. Sure, there is some treaty's, alliances, big hips of promises and concerns, strong words of "Democracy, support and unity", but all of that doesn't have real substance, just words and some ink on the parchment that doesn't lead to any obligations. If anything it's EU who has to be concerned, because for them the threat is much more real and no NATO will shield them from bombs falling on their heads, it will be too little to late by that time and it's better to stop them here and now. But oh well, we never see the threat until it's already at ours doorstep do we? My country and people know it all too well.
I think what you have described, unfortunately, is typical of human nature: refuse to recognize a growing problem (i.e., continue to live in denial) until it confronts you face-to-face.
I have some friends who are thoughtful, educated, and to the best of my knowledge not MAGA-crazies who ascribe essentially to the Sphere's of Interest model of international relations. So naturally they are not committed ideologically toward Ukraine's sovereignty and membership in what might loosely be called the Democratic Republics (and re: the U.K. Constitutional Monarchy) of the World. I think that the American version of Spheres of Interest ideology might be a form of traditional American isolationism, a very powerful narcotic heretofore (a nice way of saying prior to Trump) subsumed into the mass unconsciousness of the American polity/electorate.
Of course Trump has turned this into MAGA and therefore f*** you in the rest of the world unless you have something that benefits us! What a f***ing moron! I can handle being resented or even hated for being an American, but Trump makes me embarassed to be an American. **LOL**
This would suggest the point of view that Russia has a "natural" Sphere of Interest just as the U.S. has . . . European nations have . . . China has . . . . I no longer hold this POV and haven't for quite some time, but I have been no fan of U.S. unilateralism either. I too had succumbed to this POV when the Soviet Union fell (seemingly temporarily), but I no longer believe in it as an absolute criterion that should form a continuing basis of U.S. foreign policy.
Add to this is my notion that for the first time since WWII the U.S. has a client nation-state (Ukraine) who is worthy of our support, and that it is both the U.S.'s and NATO's vital (national) interests to support the sovereignty of Ukraine even in the face of the indomitable Russian Bear. All of the U.S.'s other clients post-WWII have been losers until Ukraine--even the So. Koreans, although they managed to reform their gov't polity and society successfully since the Korean War armistice.*** Perhaps I am wrong about Ukraine too. I hope to hell I am not!
***So. Korea & the U.S./UN forces complex vs. No. Korea [and China?] technically remain in a state of war!
Resembles The Snail on the Slope by Strugatsky brothers.
yes
Tom, what you do here is incredibly important because none of this ever gets into the mainstream news in the EU or USA. This is a very sad situation, considering the brutal invasion and war crimes committed by Russia. The only upside is that Russia's military will not be competitive to the west for some time, even if they can rebuild the lost masses of materiel already expended. But Ukraine is not going to be able to contribute as much as it should to that end with the current leadership.....
Are the NATO land forces actually efective or at least superior to the current Russian ones? NATO (actually US) air force can stop a Russian attack but it can not guarantee a succesfull NATO offensive.
NATO defense industry can barely support a Ukrainian force which is starving for ammunition.
That's the question, isn't it..... Not looking really encouraging so far.
Actually Europe and US are major weapons manufactureres, and a very small fraction of what they're creating goes to Ukraine. Artillery shells are one of the notable exceptions where there's well-known shortage.
Heaven save us from politicians who fancy themselves to be field marshals.....
"Moreover, and tragically, feeling himself ‘confirmed’ that his ‘no step back’-orders are ‘working’, Zelensky continued issuing ever more of the same."
Adolf Hitler routinely issued no retreat/no surrender orders that, for example, wrecked the German 6th Army in Russia. The 6th Army was perhaps one of the greatest armies ever in Western Civilization! So much for a modern nation's civilian leader learning from history. Then again, I conclude from your post that Ukrainian general officer leadership is not so good either.
I also was wondering . . . is it even possible to impose a wholesale reform of a nation's military in the midst of a war of attrition such as the Ukraine war? Reformation is an onerous and difficult process. One has to rid his nation's armed forces of a generation or two of leaders who are "stuck in the old ways." Also, with respect to Ukraine's armed forces, how far down the pecking order is reformation necessary? All the way to the NCO level????? On the other hand, I get the impression that Ukraine's small unit leadership is pretty good. Again, can this be accomplished during a war? I am not referring to having to adjust to circumstances that arise in combat. All competent armies must do this as a routine. I perceive that you are calling for a wholesale reformation of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Good luck with that! I find myself in a particular pessimisitic mood this morning. It's that damned U.S. Presidential election that is affecting me so negatively--sorry.
'Imposing' such a plan - from abroad - is de-facto impossible. Which is why Ukraine must initiate such reforms from within.
The current admin, and the current command of the ZSU have done their best to prove: they can't do so.
Re. how far down under: to brigade- and, where necessary, battalion-level. Yes, the small unit leadership is meanwhile, largely, excellent (at least in some 15-20 brigades coming to my mind, right away).
And it's no question of if this can be accomplished at war. It simply must. Because (and contrary to Israel, just for example), Ukraine is facing a war of extermination. So, the alternatives are: quick and complete reform, or losing war and thus the country and nation.
>> flooding by mining a dam on the Dnipro Reservoir – which, actually, could’ve been done right at the start of the war, on a timely order from the top of the ZSU and thus avoiding losses of the 72nd
- This was an extremely counterintuitive solution - blasting a downstream dam to raise water level upstream of it. It kind of used the fact that the dam was there to drive the river around the water reservoir which had higher level of water than the river. It's very likely that neither side considered such a step beforehand - till someone who knew the place in detail invented the trick, which probably happened when the fight was already desperate.
They did try to blow up the dam on 25 February, but failed. Just like they've screwed up with blowing up the bridge at Ivankyiv - thus letting the entire 35th CAA approach Kyiv without major problems (except that it had just one, four-lanes highway to do so).
....all because the ZSU was mobilised too late.
The dam at the mouth of the Irpen River, where the river flows into the Kiev Reservoir, was blown up. The water level in the Kiev Reservoir is 6 meters higher than the level in the Irpen.
Do not forget, then many people, including many Russians and even Putin, though that Russians would revolt against mobilization. There was a Russian military analyst in their TV who said the war would win those who would be willing to strain more blood - and that Russians are not ready for that. (Later, he apologized.) They were all wrong. Even non-russians like Tatars, Burjats, etc. goes to die for the Tsar and money. They do not care about Ukraine, they just listen orders. What a nation, nobody expected that.
But the fist rule of war - hope for the best, prepare for the worst, was not listened in UA and the West, too.
Thanks Tom!
That’s the problem if you go soft on criticism pertaining to military issues and officers. In this war there is NO space for hurt feelings or hurt pride because bumbling and stupidity equals death and dismemberment for the poor soldiers under their command. You learn your lesson and get better from that sharp lesson.
>> at least by that point in time, the ZSU – i.e. Zaluzhny (CinC ZSU at the time), Syrsky, and the GenStab-U – should have learned that ‘no step back’ is the worst idea, alone because the Russians could always continue *wasting dozens of thousands of troops* to get this or that place, or around it,
- As far as I remember, the Russian combat force was smaller than the Ukrainian at the time (June 2022) to the extent that Putin had to start mobilization of civilians in the autumn of 2022.
>> what idiot must anybody there in Kyiv be to come up with precisely the set of ideas that have already been turned down, and then expect NATO to change its mind? Where is such a decisionmaker coming from? The Dreamland? This is would be ridiculous even if anybody would try to use it as a script for some TV-comedy…
- This can be the act of preparing the Ukrainian society to surrender by showing them that the West they relied on has forsaken them.
And that will be used by Russian propaganda to brainwash Ukrainians against the West "See? The West left you helpless, you don't owe anything to these degenerates, come with us and avenge against their treasonous handling of your country etc".
I wouldn't want to see NATO facing enraged Ukrainian troops with plenty of heavy equipment and munitions...
I don't think there are any Ukrainian troops with the desire to fight by now.
Moreover, I don't think it would be wise for Russians to arm Ukrainians.
In command-and-control societies it's impossible for the leadership to encourage a broad range of critical thinking amongst those it 'leads' because of the threat that would pose to its own position. Ukraine has not had the advantage of generations taking responsibility for decision-making, because for most of the last century it was part of an empire which actively discriminated against those who might do so.
Thus it's a country wishing it might be 'western' without the facility. Its leadership confuses salesmanship with statesmanship. So long as it can sell a heroic narrative to the West, it's done its job. And Western leaders are happily complicit in the scam, for the reasons you mention. Their people couldn't care less - for the most part - as happy narratives fill their media, and it's all a long way away (except for those much closer to the frontline who know and understand the full danger that Putin & allies represent).
Your analyses make often quite depressing reading as antidotes to the general euphoria; but please never change your critical style, as it's only by constant questioning that the Open Society can healthily develop.
I will continue to offer my tiny bit of support to various of the causes trying to provide succour to the brave souls actually battling on the ground - on behalf of all of us, if only we had the sense to realise.
Chris, all true, they had me with all the cute cat with soldier pics. The Russians knew what they would be fighting, hence the belief in a 3 day op. I'm afraid NATO also knew what was Ukraine's command & control capability, and didn't give them a chance. The story of the war is how the Russians mismanaged the whole thing, which only a few who really knew Russia expected. Lincoln went through the same frustrations until he found the generals who could win, but it took 4 years.
Tom, how do you see the end of the war?
There's no end of this war in sight.
Indeed, if we were at the 'level 21 out of 100', back in September 2022, now we're back down to 'level 15', and can't find the way up even to the level 16....
By judging based on what is in Don's weeklies, it could be a matter of time.
Time not to win the war "on the battlefield" (that is basically impossible considered issues you just depicted), but to resist for a longer time than russian economy can without breaking up and crashing to pieces.
Point is: would the ZSU be able to continue trading (acceptable portions of) terrain for russian losses for approximately another 18 months (12 in optimum case)?
This only if and only if (and this is, sadly, everything but guaranteed) the "West" does not manage to screw up even sanctions and permits russian economy to breathe again.
Am I correct?
The sanctions are not their main trouble. They only add a topping over the:
* deficiency of workforce while persecuting immigrants and after the brain drain.
* high inflation because of the government's spending on the war.
* extreme insecurity for business after many companies have been nationalized and some raided.
Why should ukrainian economy last longer than russian? No point in trading time which work against you.
1) Profits made on $300 billion of confiscated russian assets and potentially the assets themselves. 2) All the equipment 'pledged' but not yet delivered. 3) Any new 'pledged' equipment (probably at a lower rate than before).
On the russian side you have sanctions and soviet stocks of equipment running out.
Note that North Korea and Iran and China are actively helping Russia, so they aren't in danger to be out of equipment and munitions soon
the pipeline of western equipment and munitions is still full, and it will take time to dry, even if Trump gets elected and stops the US help to Ukraine.
It's a race against time
As I wrote, it could IF AND ONLY IF "the west" at least manages to not screw up also financial aid, after deliberately screwing up military aid
Tom, watched your Youtube interview with Ukrainian journalist UKRLIFE with Lyudmila Nemirei. Do you have any contacts or possibility to go on air for example Telemarovofon or some leading Ukrainian channel. Where they would be able to voice everything that was in this article. If your statements gain a big resonance, perhaps there will be a shift in the command of the troops and the country. For example, Sodol was removed after being criticised by the military, but the court case was never opened.
Iuriy,
have tried, for decades, to work with the mainstream media... have tried that often enough that I can only describe the experience as 'hairrising'.
One of last examples was actually with a Ukrainian TV channel, sometimes in April or May the last year. They didn't tell me we're live on TV until the program actually started. And then, when I've explained not to expect too much from the 'coming biiiiiiiiiig offensive', the anchor laughed and explained that I'm not particularly optimistic, but the Ukrainians are going to teach me better....
Thanks, but no thanks.
Ljudmila is an exception: an excellent researcher and presenter, curious about backgrounds and context. Not only asking fantastic, qualified questions, but also offering enough space for people like me to explain their standpoints.
Thus, she's an exception.
But, for me, that's where it ends: theoretically, I could post a video here on this blog. There are such functions. But, I'm not interested in doing that - and not curious in any 'fame'.
I have a field in which I find I'm good: written analysis. That's it.
Ouch! This hurts but your analysis is definitely being "cruel to be kind." Your conclusions explain much of the war situation "progress", of lack there of, thus far. Accordingly, let's hope for some nice light at the end of this very dark tunnel, eh? Fingers crossed.....