Thanks Tom, interesting that a single Su 35S attempted to shoot down the PSU fighter bombers, the VKS are now operating as single aircraft elements? No more 2 aircraft flight elements?
Thank you very much. Some say that the Ukrainians have surrounded and enclosed Russian paratroopers in the Russian town of Tetkino. Is it babbling or confirmed ? Best wishes.
It’s odd that the Russians persist in attacking civilian targets that have no military significance. I’m sure someone can point to that as yet another example of Putin’s “genius.”
I understand that, but there is efficient use of military resources and inefficient. Attacking civilian targets definitely falls into the latter category.
That's 'the Western' way of thinking: the Russian is that the 'results merit the tools'.
I.e. destroying civilians is one of tools of winning a war. What do we think about this, whether we like that or not, find it civilised or whatever - simply does not matter to/in 'Russia'
Just recently, the Russians destroyed a large grain elevator in the Chernihiv region with a missile and declared that it was a military target, since it supplied food to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
They hope to spread terror. Show that resistance is futile. They have done this for the whole war. They will not stop. They kill somebody at least, that’s what counts. But I do agree on the inefficiency. It just doesn’t matter.
Inefficient is one of the words that defines the VSRF. 'Corrupt', 'incompetent', 'war criminals', 'de-mechanisation' are a few of the others. Don't forget a lot of their guided weapons have very low accuracy.
There are no deliberate strikes on civilian targets by RU forces otherwise each night would have brought hundreds of dead. On the contrary, we see minimum number of civilian deathes. Sadly they are caused by collateral damage or wrong targeting.
Was the Kharkiv Children's Railway also a "military target"? A KAB dropped in the evening, dozens of wounded, many of them children.
You call that “wrong targeting”? Then your army isn't just criminal — it’s grotesquely incompetent. But we both know it was no accident. You aim where it hurts the most — then hide behind excuses.
Congratulations, russia — over two decades of gaslighting the world, rewriting history, poisoning dissidents, invading neighbors, and still somehow calling yourself the "victim."
Since 2002 you've mastered the art of pretending you're surrounded, while actively surrounding others.
Since 2022, you've made historic strides:
– Lost hundreds of thousands of lives in a war no one needed.
– Turned your economy into a black market bazaar.
– Watched the world laugh as you claim victory over bombed-out villages.
But hey — at least you’ve still got parades, propaganda, and plenty of graves.
So raise a toast to June 12th — a day to celebrate fear, decline, and denial — russian style.
Thanks Don, . . . for now, little information is available on the SU-35, as the days go by we hope to have more info, some accounts of "x" assure that the downing would have been with the assistance of the Awacs, the question is with what missile if it is true, Kinds Regards
Thanks for the update. A very high level summary would be that while Ukraine is trying to destroy Russias ability to fight Russia continues to very slowly advance on the ground. There can be no peace before Russia is stopped on the ground. They believe they are winning. Of course the strategic attacks help, but it takes time and requires the ground forces to hold enough.
As ever, thanks Don. Has that Su-35 shoot-down by the F-16 been confirmed? I see nothing as yet. There was initially a lot of excited talk (including by myself) about how maybe a Saab 340 vectored the ambush. Then it was walked back to being a SAM kill. Since then, crickets.
Much the same with the train ambushes. The initial posts read like over-excited unsourced accounts written by people on too much caffeine. Again, since then, crickets. If they did happen surely Ukraine would be scrambling to publish any kind of image that verifies the tale. I hope its true though. Really wild if it is.
Thanks. I watched the Bild report too but, so far, it adds no official confirmation or details. It just repeats the same rumours from yesterday (which may be true) and adds some experts' speculations.
It's an op with so many moving parts that a billion things could go wrong. Very high risk of failure. Also lacks credibility. FPV drones cannot carry explosives large enough to derail trains. Even if they did, a lot of the tanks and other armoured vehicles would likely be damaged but not destroyed. FPVs picking them off while the train is underway is possible but getting them in place to do so requires an incredibly fast response time to intel about the train's movement. In contrast, the Spiderweb raid took 18 months of planning. It all sounds way too much like 'Hollywood' BS. I hope I'm wrong as this would be a huge victory for Ukraine. Also, the results would be visible on satellite images or FIRMS yet... crickets.
Thanks Tom, thanks Don. Please clarify whether the Russians are really using S-300 anti-aircraft missiles in ballistic mode to shell Kharkov? Previously, I had seen information from the Russians that they do not engage in such a practice - the shelling was carried out from Smerch/Tornado MLRS, and the S-300 missiles that exploded within the city limits were fired by Ukrainian air defense.
They were doing it regularly until last summer when Ukraine took out the TELs in Kursk responsible (and a lot of conscripts manning them too). The wreckage of S-300s missiles were regularly photographed before then.
The mass of what the Ukrainians report as 'S-300 used as ballistic missiles' are BM-27s and BM-30s.
But, yes, they are using S-300s as ballistic missiles. And they are far less precise than either BM-27s or BM-30s (which can be - and regularly are - aimed with help of the same aiming system used for Iskanders).
"Russia’s Rubicon drone team hits a Ukrainian tank in Mykolaivka."
I found it quite curious that the tank was seemingly abandoned, with open hatches etc. If there was manned personnel, wouldn't they be able to destroy the drone before it reached the tank? Eg using shotguns?
If the tank is abandoned temporarily, why then does the crew not close the hatches? There are many videos on the Internet where drones destroy a tank by attacking precisely through open hatches!
Many tank crews have commented on this. It's a brave and foolish person who takes the time to secure hatches when they're being hunted by FPVs. According to Louis Sallians' study of FPV videos, in this war you have a 92% chance of dying if you are detected on foot in the open by a drone.
Shooting a little buzzing bastard flying straight towards you is not my idea of fun. Is it because of lacking non-directional detectors, or they simply don't have time or correct arms to acquire target and fire?
The Russians in particular have made extensive use of detectors. Even deploying traffic lights on supply roads to warn when they are too dangerous drive on. FPV drones are also highly manoeuvrable. They are very hard to hit. Shotguns do take some down, but there are plentiful videos of Russians using their weapons as clubs when they've missed. That rarely works too. Millions of these drones are being deployed this years. Oh, and both fiber optic and the new autonomous drones make detectors useless. The analysis I mentioned goes into more detail. For example, if soldiers can get into trees or undergrowth, their mortality rate falls by two-thirds and, if an FPV cannot find you, it moves on to easier prey.
Ukraine is very strict about recording kills which is why their tallies of Russian losses have become more accurate. If there is no video, it is not counted. And drone pilot units are keen to get this right because accuracy is rewarded with more drones, supplies etc. In recent interviews Don has featured, commanders of these units have talked about how their strike rate has shot up because tactics and experience both count. These days, if they attack they rarely miss.
It really is a hellscape for soldiers on both sides.
If in the first case there is still hope for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to receive these missiles, then in the second case, no matter what missiles are being discussed, there is none. Thus, the more the Russians intensify their attacks, the less necessary aid comes to Ukraine from the West. One can also recall Ukraine's request, which is hanging in the air, about the possibility of purchasing air defense systems from the USA.
1) Re: "Spider Web 2.0" aka Train strike #2 (killing 13 MBT + 100 AFV/other).... Is there any confirmation??? I figure that the SBU would have put out a video or 8 by now.
2) WTF blew-up or disintegrated in the atmosphere above....what was it....Omsk or something several days ago??? Was it another failed IRBM or just a mundane satellite???
3) REPEAT: KAB Glide Bombs. Recently I have noticed an uptick in the Ruskies use of KAB Glide Bombs; especially in the Vovchansk area. I think I recall a video with about a dozen strike within a short order of time. As you have repeatedly said, electronic warfare is a fluid situation and that just because Ukraine had the advantage, say on Tuesday, that they might not have that advantage on Thursday.
Oh yeah..... Anything on Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi 'early retirement'
Thanks Tom, interesting that a single Su 35S attempted to shoot down the PSU fighter bombers, the VKS are now operating as single aircraft elements? No more 2 aircraft flight elements?
I get the feeling the wingman was probably nearby and yelling over the radio regards what a stupid plan his colleague was engaged in...
Thank you very much. Some say that the Ukrainians have surrounded and enclosed Russian paratroopers in the Russian town of Tetkino. Is it babbling or confirmed ? Best wishes.
Haven't heard anything of that kind. Rather 'Ukrainians holding the centre and the western side, Russians the north-eastern side'.
It’s odd that the Russians persist in attacking civilian targets that have no military significance. I’m sure someone can point to that as yet another example of Putin’s “genius.”
For the 'Russians at war' there are no 'civilian' targets, disctinct from 'military targets'. All targets are 'military'.
I understand that, but there is efficient use of military resources and inefficient. Attacking civilian targets definitely falls into the latter category.
That's 'the Western' way of thinking: the Russian is that the 'results merit the tools'.
I.e. destroying civilians is one of tools of winning a war. What do we think about this, whether we like that or not, find it civilised or whatever - simply does not matter to/in 'Russia'
The Combined Bomber Offensive showed that "destroying civilians" can't even be called a tool of winning a war.
Just recently, the Russians destroyed a large grain elevator in the Chernihiv region with a missile and declared that it was a military target, since it supplied food to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Is that why all those glide bombs hit open fields? Because a soldier might use it to walk across?
In reality, the Russians regularly strike agricultural enterprises in all frontline regions with CABs and drones.
They hope to spread terror. Show that resistance is futile. They have done this for the whole war. They will not stop. They kill somebody at least, that’s what counts. But I do agree on the inefficiency. It just doesn’t matter.
Inefficient is one of the words that defines the VSRF. 'Corrupt', 'incompetent', 'war criminals', 'de-mechanisation' are a few of the others. Don't forget a lot of their guided weapons have very low accuracy.
There are no deliberate strikes on civilian targets by RU forces otherwise each night would have brought hundreds of dead. On the contrary, we see minimum number of civilian deathes. Sadly they are caused by collateral damage or wrong targeting.
Was the Kharkiv Children's Railway also a "military target"? A KAB dropped in the evening, dozens of wounded, many of them children.
You call that “wrong targeting”? Then your army isn't just criminal — it’s grotesquely incompetent. But we both know it was no accident. You aim where it hurts the most — then hide behind excuses.
Congratulations, russia — over two decades of gaslighting the world, rewriting history, poisoning dissidents, invading neighbors, and still somehow calling yourself the "victim."
Since 2002 you've mastered the art of pretending you're surrounded, while actively surrounding others.
Since 2022, you've made historic strides:
– Lost hundreds of thousands of lives in a war no one needed.
– Turned your economy into a black market bazaar.
– Watched the world laugh as you claim victory over bombed-out villages.
But hey — at least you’ve still got parades, propaganda, and plenty of graves.
So raise a toast to June 12th — a day to celebrate fear, decline, and denial — russian style.
It's not misfortune, it's sloppy planning and targeting, based on trusting dodgy intel too much
It's the Russian modus operandi, like in Syria, Chechnya and elsewhere
With the deployment of the 156th Mechanized, that leaves the 158th, 159th, and 161st mech brigades still in training?
Thanks Don, . . . for now, little information is available on the SU-35, as the days go by we hope to have more info, some accounts of "x" assure that the downing would have been with the assistance of the Awacs, the question is with what missile if it is true, Kinds Regards
https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1086839-ukrayinkyj-f-16-vpershe-v-istoriyi-zbyv-rosijskyj-su-35-za-dopomogoyu-litaka-rozvidnyka-saab-bild
Thanks for the update. A very high level summary would be that while Ukraine is trying to destroy Russias ability to fight Russia continues to very slowly advance on the ground. There can be no peace before Russia is stopped on the ground. They believe they are winning. Of course the strategic attacks help, but it takes time and requires the ground forces to hold enough.
As ever, thanks Don. Has that Su-35 shoot-down by the F-16 been confirmed? I see nothing as yet. There was initially a lot of excited talk (including by myself) about how maybe a Saab 340 vectored the ambush. Then it was walked back to being a SAM kill. Since then, crickets.
Much the same with the train ambushes. The initial posts read like over-excited unsourced accounts written by people on too much caffeine. Again, since then, crickets. If they did happen surely Ukraine would be scrambling to publish any kind of image that verifies the tale. I hope its true though. Really wild if it is.
https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1086839-ukrayinkyj-f-16-vpershe-v-istoriyi-zbyv-rosijskyj-su-35-za-dopomogoyu-litaka-rozvidnyka-saab-bild
Thanks. I watched the Bild report too but, so far, it adds no official confirmation or details. It just repeats the same rumours from yesterday (which may be true) and adds some experts' speculations.
quite skeptical about the supposed drone attack via a hidden container on the trains - I'll believe it when we get pictures/videos
It's an op with so many moving parts that a billion things could go wrong. Very high risk of failure. Also lacks credibility. FPV drones cannot carry explosives large enough to derail trains. Even if they did, a lot of the tanks and other armoured vehicles would likely be damaged but not destroyed. FPVs picking them off while the train is underway is possible but getting them in place to do so requires an incredibly fast response time to intel about the train's movement. In contrast, the Spiderweb raid took 18 months of planning. It all sounds way too much like 'Hollywood' BS. I hope I'm wrong as this would be a huge victory for Ukraine. Also, the results would be visible on satellite images or FIRMS yet... crickets.
Thanks Tom, thanks Don. Please clarify whether the Russians are really using S-300 anti-aircraft missiles in ballistic mode to shell Kharkov? Previously, I had seen information from the Russians that they do not engage in such a practice - the shelling was carried out from Smerch/Tornado MLRS, and the S-300 missiles that exploded within the city limits were fired by Ukrainian air defense.
They were doing it regularly until last summer when Ukraine took out the TELs in Kursk responsible (and a lot of conscripts manning them too). The wreckage of S-300s missiles were regularly photographed before then.
The mass of what the Ukrainians report as 'S-300 used as ballistic missiles' are BM-27s and BM-30s.
But, yes, they are using S-300s as ballistic missiles. And they are far less precise than either BM-27s or BM-30s (which can be - and regularly are - aimed with help of the same aiming system used for Iskanders).
"Russia’s Rubicon drone team hits a Ukrainian tank in Mykolaivka."
I found it quite curious that the tank was seemingly abandoned, with open hatches etc. If there was manned personnel, wouldn't they be able to destroy the drone before it reached the tank? Eg using shotguns?
FPV drone detectors warn of their presence and crews wisely bail out.
If the tank is abandoned temporarily, why then does the crew not close the hatches? There are many videos on the Internet where drones destroy a tank by attacking precisely through open hatches!
Many tank crews have commented on this. It's a brave and foolish person who takes the time to secure hatches when they're being hunted by FPVs. According to Louis Sallians' study of FPV videos, in this war you have a 92% chance of dying if you are detected on foot in the open by a drone.
https://x.com/LSaillans/status/1930956957042565552/
It's not a study but an absolute joke.
Still haven't read it I see.
Shooting a little buzzing bastard flying straight towards you is not my idea of fun. Is it because of lacking non-directional detectors, or they simply don't have time or correct arms to acquire target and fire?
The Russians in particular have made extensive use of detectors. Even deploying traffic lights on supply roads to warn when they are too dangerous drive on. FPV drones are also highly manoeuvrable. They are very hard to hit. Shotguns do take some down, but there are plentiful videos of Russians using their weapons as clubs when they've missed. That rarely works too. Millions of these drones are being deployed this years. Oh, and both fiber optic and the new autonomous drones make detectors useless. The analysis I mentioned goes into more detail. For example, if soldiers can get into trees or undergrowth, their mortality rate falls by two-thirds and, if an FPV cannot find you, it moves on to easier prey.
Ukraine is very strict about recording kills which is why their tallies of Russian losses have become more accurate. If there is no video, it is not counted. And drone pilot units are keen to get this right because accuracy is rewarded with more drones, supplies etc. In recent interviews Don has featured, commanders of these units have talked about how their strike rate has shot up because tactics and experience both count. These days, if they attack they rarely miss.
It really is a hellscape for soldiers on both sides.
How widespread is the deployment of shotguns? It seems their chances of taking down a drone vs an AK74 or such are "reasonable" vs "unlikely".
Regarding "support" for Ukrainian air defense, there have been 2 reports recently:
https://www.obozrevatel.com/novosti-mir/v-polshe-vozle-granitsyi-obnaruzhili-spryatannyie-zenitnyie-ustanovki-kotoryie-dolzhnyi-byili-peredat-ukraine-smi.htm
https://www.obozrevatel.com/politics-news/ssha-peredali-na-blizhnij-vostok-20-tyis-raket-pvo-kotoryie-prednaznachalis-dlya-ukrainyi-zelenskij.htm
If in the first case there is still hope for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to receive these missiles, then in the second case, no matter what missiles are being discussed, there is none. Thus, the more the Russians intensify their attacks, the less necessary aid comes to Ukraine from the West. One can also recall Ukraine's request, which is hanging in the air, about the possibility of purchasing air defense systems from the USA.
https://fbc.biz.ua/ru/news/politika/zelenskij-ukraina-do-sih-por-zhdet-otveta-ssha-o-zakupke-sistem-pvo/
Trump now has more important problems in America itself - suppressing the discontent of illegal immigrants in California!
Just read a report that Israel confirmed delivery of a Patriot system to Ukraine (at least)
probably done a long time ago, and replaced with a new one. they just need the good publicity since they are operating as they are in Gaza.
Israel is in urgent need of good PR. Doesn't make that statement truth, though.
Gauging by their 'reliability' in regards of reporting on what are they doing in Gaza, I tend not to pay attention.
https://tsn.ua/svit/izrayil-zaperechyv-peredavannia-ukrayini-zrk-patriot-zmi-2846759.html
3 Questions:
1) Re: "Spider Web 2.0" aka Train strike #2 (killing 13 MBT + 100 AFV/other).... Is there any confirmation??? I figure that the SBU would have put out a video or 8 by now.
2) WTF blew-up or disintegrated in the atmosphere above....what was it....Omsk or something several days ago??? Was it another failed IRBM or just a mundane satellite???
3) REPEAT: KAB Glide Bombs. Recently I have noticed an uptick in the Ruskies use of KAB Glide Bombs; especially in the Vovchansk area. I think I recall a video with about a dozen strike within a short order of time. As you have repeatedly said, electronic warfare is a fluid situation and that just because Ukraine had the advantage, say on Tuesday, that they might not have that advantage on Thursday.
Oh yeah..... Anything on Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi 'early retirement'
I knew I forgot something..... What the hell happened with those "20,000 anti-Shaheed missiles"???
Were sent to Israel instead.
a little more data 'might' be nice......
Sorry, I simply don't have anything else but, 'were sent to Israel'.
"scruffy looking NERF-HERDER!"
"Who's 'scruffy looking'?"