Don's Weekly, 8 July 2024: Part 4

(….continued from Part 3…)

Ukraine

Ukraine says that an Su-24 decoy and two Patriot launchers were destroyed at an airbase in Kriyvyi Rih. An Mi-24 helicopter was at least damaged at Poltava.

60 km northwest of the Poltava air base, an S-300 system was hit. The cook off confirms at least one launcher was destroyed. Also at risk was another launcher, a radar, and a control unit…https://x.com/WarVehicle/status/1809276464480592330

***

Diplomacy

South Korea reports that 3-4 of North Korea’s 10 engineering brigades will be sent to Ukraine. North Korea will reportedly be paid $115 a year for these 5,000-man brigades…https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/27/7462810/

LaPen said she will rescind permission to use French long-ranged weapons in Russia. Concerns about Italy’s far-right prime minister did not become reality, but in the past LaPen has praised Putin, refused to condemn the annexation of Crimea and took a large loan from a Russian bank…https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/europe/france-le-pen-ukraine-mbappe-intl-cmd

The UK’s new prime minister has supported Ukraine since at least 2022…https://x.com/KyivPost/status/1809208518324453872

Zelensky: “If Trump knows how to end this war he should tell us today. Because if there are risks to Ukraine’s independence, if there are risks that we would lose statehood, we want to be prepared for this. We want to understand whether in November we will have the powerful support of the US or we will be all alone”.

Orban admits that he is a tool: “We will serve as an important tool in making the first step towards peace”.

Netherland’s new prime minister led the investigation of the Russian shootdown of the Malaysian Airlines flight when he was the head of intelligence in 2014. He reaffirms the Netherland’s commitment to Europe, NATO and Ukraine…https://x.com/yasminalombaert/status/1808493253269839988

***

Equipment

There was an explosion at a US factory that makes Hellfire and Javelin rockets. Initial reports say two are injured and one is missing…https://apnews.com/article/general-dynamics-camden-defense-facility-16b98c88d1670709fcc7869c0563dad3

There have plenty of reports of North Korean ammo blowing up in Russian guns…https://x.com/JackfellaCZ/status/1808710272166564216

Of the 105 S300/400 air defense systems removed from eastern Russia, 60 were likely sent to Ukraine or its border…https://x.com/AS_22im/status/1809217169978503304

Germany is sending 40 tanks, 3 HIMARS and 2 Iris-T’s…https://x.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1808744516616130927

The Vampire drone carries cargo in an area shaped like a cube. Because they value maximum explosive power over aerodynamic contours, the 47th Brigade (and maybe other brigades) are using square bombs when deploying the Vampire drone.

Andrew Perpetua discusses drone tactics: A recent trend among Ukrainian operators is to carry two small bombs and one big bomb. The small ones are dropped for aiming purposes and then the big one is released. Russians drop all their bombs at once.

Russian operators, of both FPV’s and bombers, commit to their targets from a much greater distance and continue with the attack even if the approach isn’t working. They have a greater chance to achieve surprise but are a lot less accurate. Ukrainian operators are more likely to break off a faulty approach and try again, resulting in a higher chance to hit.

Also, more drone vs. drone…https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1808642278015258807

Drone combat in this war is developing in similar ways to aerial combat in WW1. The first planes on both sides during the Great War were used for reconnaissance. Then the pilots or their passengers carried weapons to engage each other. Finally, fighter planes were developed for the specific purpose of shooting down enemy planes.

Drones are now fighting each other with ad hoc weapons, such as nets, or kinetically through collision. Both sides are improving their capabilities. Ukraine are working on several solutions at once that will receive location and speed from radars and then pursue and intercept the drones with speeds of up to 250 kph using AI for guidance. The interceptor drones will be inexpensive and supplement air defense systems, saving the missiles more dangerous threats. Interceptor drones would be effective against Orlan, Zala, Lancet and Shahed drones and could potentially be a threat to helicopters…https://x.com/joni_askola/status/1808440180841283795