Don's Weekly, 8 January 2024: Part 1

Hello everybody!

Yes, I…. no… _Don and me_ do know you’ve got even more questions, and yes, I’m going to address these in the coming days - in between of preparing book-projects on aerial warfare and electronic warfare over Ukraine. In this regards, here a little bit of a ‘teaser’: a ‘screen grab’ from the cover of one of projects in question - to make sure we’re not sitting idly, and that we do care, and that ‘just because there’s no another update, report or Q&A released today’, means not ‘we’ve forgotten’ about Ukraine…

Avdiivka

After two big failures while trying to secure Stepove, the Russians have tried something new. This time, they pushed north of Stepove, and were able to advance 500 meters and hold their positions when the Ukrainians counterattacked. East of the coke factory, the same Russian drone unit that systematically destroyed Ukrainian defensive positions in Marinka is now working on Ukrainian defenses built into the houses. This allowed Russian advances of 200 meters in one small housing block.

Three Russian air defense systems were attacked…

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1743188086178381947

A rare Ukrainian airstrike caught on video. The target was not reported…https://t.me/supernova_plus/26987

North of the coke factory, Bradleys fire on Russian assault groups…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1742647084518416516

Marinka

The battle for Marinka impacts Russian logistics because the only overland railroad connecting Donetsk to the occupied lands to the west is less than 10 km from the front lines. This is within range of Ukrainian conventional artillery, so Russia is unable to use it.

In July, 2022, Russia started to attack west of Donetsk, focusing on the towns of Marinka and Novomikhaylivka, and also north towards Vuhledar. If they pushed the Ukrainians back far enough, they’d be able to use the railroad from Donetsk to the west. The strongest push was towards Marinka, which varied in intensity over time but never stopped. The attacks towards Novomikhaylivka and Vuhledar were not as intense until January, 2023, when Russia conducted waves of attacks against Vuhledar, suffering heavy casualties in men and equipment while making virtrually no progress. Key to Vuhledar’s defense was the town’s apartment buildings, many of which were six or seven stories high. Russian airstrikes and artillery made them uninhabitable but they still stood and provided observation posts that could see the Russian attacks forming and advancing over two kilometers of open ground. Mines, artillery and direct fire beat back every assault.

Caption: Vuhledar is a small industrial town of strong high rise buildings that acts as a castle surrounded by a moat of open fields filled with mines. In this image, the Russians would be advancing from the right for two kilometers across the open ground while coming under fire from artillery, tanks and ATGMs.

Despite their heavy losses, the Russians continued to attack Vuhledar until June of 2023, when Ukraine’s offensive began towards Robotyne and in the Mokri Yaly valley just 30 km west of Vuhledar. If they had intended to encircle Ukrainian forces it didn’t work. They didn’t make any progress at Vuhledar and made very little at Marinka.

The attacks in Marinka never did stop. In mid-October, Russia started making a strong push towards Novomikhaylivka. In mid-December, Russia was able to push Ukraine out of the last few streets they held in Marinka. There haven’t been any significant attacks near Vuhledar. For now, Russia is trying to push west and create a single bulge.

One of the reasons why Ukraine held onto the last 10% of Marinka for so long is that they dug fortifications in the basements of the ruined houses and connected those basements with tunnels, trenches and holes between walls. Andrew Perpetua noticed that a group of Russian drone operators that were publishing the videos were using kamikaze drones to attack the fortifications. Any casualties caused were a bonus but the purpose of the drone attacks were to degrade and destroy the fortifications. They used multiple drones to destroy the fortifications of one house, and then they moved to the next house and pounded it until the defensive positions ceased to exist. The Russians conducted at least 18 airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Marinka during the month of November, and artillery took its toll, as well. But the FPV drones were methodical. Drones even eliminated mines by dropping munitions on them. On November 30, the Russians started to advance and by December 1st they placed a flag on the edge of the southern part of the town. They’ve since advanced 1300 meters up the right side of the Osykova river…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1743294748864225534

The lines in front of Novomikhaylivka haven’t changed this week. The Russians filled a vehicle full of explosives. Russians say they are being used to clear minefields…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1742851132118999227

A Russian passenger in the back of a truck tries to shoot down a drone that is stalking him…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1744057155601256887

(….to be continued…)