Thanks for the report, but his statement "Biden [..] has, de-facto, ‘thrown the towel’" is premature. I'm not saying that it's wrong, but we simply don't have solid evidence to claim that (yet). Let's wait for two weeks and see. Next week, after Rammstein, we'll get additional clues.
However, Rammstein has been cancelled and postponed indefinitely. Consequently, all preliminary agreements remain unratified and there will be no assistance to Ukraine from this side.
"nobody is working on finding a solution for the Russian glide bombs". Isn't SM-6 an obvious solution to intercept a few su-34 launching the gliding bombs? after a couple of losses, VKS would feel unsafe and will tune down.
Sorry, but there's no way the US Air Force or the US Army would let the US Navy deploy SM-6s for the defence of Ukraine: it's more important to was... erm.. use them for the defence of Israel.
Besides, it would take a few earthquakes shaking Pentagon for the US Navy to let anybody get one of its SM-6s.
To be fair the SM6 and its air launched versions are pretty critical to US defense plans and any hope of maintaining credible deterrence vs China over Taiwan. If Raytheon had the capacity in place to produce them in volume (the standard version or the new land launched air launched versions) and the array of oops we need more long range strike missiles and air to air missiles (ground or air based) were all being produced now and in more than tiny batches. Then Ukraine might be getting some (SM6s). But honestly I can't see the US risking its tiny amount now. Before the Ukraine war blew up US plans for adding the SM6 was what 100 or so a year and that was before the army/marines and the air launched version all were a thing. This close to election do you really think Biden can risk now wall to wall FOX coverage of the his admiration stripping the US navy of its most important missle to give them to Ukraine?
Even the logical option of front loading a large contract with Raytheon to scale up production with the aim of providing some to Ukraine ASAP and of course concurrently doing what the US should be doing improving its production capacity past boutique status would likely be attacked. Since I dunno people seem to believe that does not involve spending in the US and creating more well paying jobs in the US defense sector.
I cannot see like point in belaboring Israel's special status in US policy. Like it or not it was a long time bi-partisan thing in the making and its not going to change on a dime no matter what Israel does in the short term.
True, but... FIrst as I said Israel is a special case that is not going to have its special status in US politics derailed easily. In addition it worth considering that the use in the red sea crosses over to the freedom of the seas mission due to the generalized nature Houthi attacks on shipping including actual US ships. Importantly the use is in a place where US enemies have low ability to observe the SM6 in action or any likelihood of recovering bits of them. That would different if Ukraine was say using the new air launched version to drive back the Russian air force with long range BVR shots into/over Russia.
Because the Su-30s can release glide bombs at very long range, Patriots batteries would have to brought very close to the frontline. These days that is far too risky; there's nowhere to hide anymore which means GBAD is out of the question. Ukraine does not have the air-launched missiles and airframes that could do the job, so it all depends upon attacking the VKS's logistics chain which Ukraine does appear to be doing. If they can't fly, they can't bomb.
Today, when ZSU can shoot down recon drones by other UAVs, may it be safer to move a Patriot battery in assault mode closer to front line when it would be secured by a few squads hunting recon drones nearby?
Right now we see compilation videos of drones being intercepted but we don't have specific dates and times of the event, just a geolocation. If you intercept one, are you sure that there are no others in the area? Currently, Russian reports say that when they lose a reconnaissance drone they just get a new one the next day. There are usually multiple drones flown by multiple units in an area.
The unwillingness to equip Ukraine with the GBAD it needs, plus Meteors (and aircraft that can carry them) to take out the Sukhois, must be the most obvious condemnation of the slow pace of support for Ukraine.
Btw, re SM-6s, the US NAvy's air-launched version (AIM 174) could do the job but they are new, scarce, and needed in the Pacific. Also, the last thing the US Navy wants is for one to be recovered by the Russians and sold to China. Since the intercepts would have to happen in Russian airspace that might be too high a risk to ignore.
Here in Europe, The Champions League is serious business. It's roughly 50% of the size of the EU defence industry (not sure the UK is still included). Since UEFA changed the system, nobody knows who plays who, where, why and how teams qualify to the next round! This is far more important than some war in Vkraina overo Paese de Cosacchi Tanaiti Soggetti al Moscovita. It will take us years to figure out and get used to the new Champions League (or is it the Holy League?) format. Years I say! Heads of State of every European nation have attended more football matches, than meetings on the topic of "Russian invasion of Ukraine" (btw, it's actually called War in Ukraine, because Ukraine fights itself you doughnut). How much does the Pope enjoy football, compared to his interest in the war? How dare you talk about the Champions League this way.
With regards to Israel, FOR GOD'S SAKE, what don't you understand? ISRAEL IS IN UEFA! Maccabi Tel-Aviv are in the Europa League (lost both games so far). Ergo, they are the same as us! Is Al Ahed FC in UEFA? No, it isn't! Start the jet engines.
Thank you Tom. You wrote clearly about the prospects of "help" for Ukraine from the US and the EU, although, to the delight of optimists, such statements are also heard from there: https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1039550-vijna-v-ukrayini
As for the mood inside the EU - this is criminal carelessness, given the size of the Armed Forces, say, of Germany (62 thousand people) or France (114 thousand people). Restoring their combat capability to the level of the Cold War will take years. Thus, in a non-nuclear war with Russia on European territory, NATO has no chance - it will be swept away in a couple of weeks! But instead of putting all its efforts into strengthening the last outpost between itself and the brutalized Russia - Ukraine, the West hopes to appease Putin at its expense. The options of a mass exodus of Ukrainians, in case of defeat, to the West and the advancement of Russian troops there after them are not being considered.
Ok, maybe I dont love our oligarchs as much as you do Tom, but I think the EU will support. However most of that support will be in the form of money and various civilian equipment.
It’s dishonest to say Ukraine is on its own and without EU support, production has ramped up significantly, with artillery and ammunition being sent in ever increasing quantities
Do we have any recent numbers? I saw that the Czech initiative had delivered one third of the promised munitions, and EU is still struggling to reach the promised one million shells, when N. Korea is going to deliver three million shells per year to Russia alone
Here's a perfect confirmation of what Tom was talking about - two of the Trio Fantasticus found a reason to sabotage the trip to Germany! Without them, Rammstein is doomed to failure.
Thanks for the report, but his statement "Biden [..] has, de-facto, ‘thrown the towel’" is premature. I'm not saying that it's wrong, but we simply don't have solid evidence to claim that (yet). Let's wait for two weeks and see. Next week, after Rammstein, we'll get additional clues.
https://censor.net/ua/news/3513925/blinken_ne_poyide_na_nastupnyyi_ramshtayin
Here's the answer - two of the Trio Fantasticus found a reason to sabotage Rammstein! Without them, this Rammstein is doomed to failure.
again, it's a premature statement.
summits like these are just symbolic. everything is decided before the meeting.
However, Rammstein has been cancelled and postponed indefinitely. Consequently, all preliminary agreements remain unratified and there will be no assistance to Ukraine from this side.
"nobody is working on finding a solution for the Russian glide bombs". Isn't SM-6 an obvious solution to intercept a few su-34 launching the gliding bombs? after a couple of losses, VKS would feel unsafe and will tune down.
Sorry, but there's no way the US Air Force or the US Army would let the US Navy deploy SM-6s for the defence of Ukraine: it's more important to was... erm.. use them for the defence of Israel.
Besides, it would take a few earthquakes shaking Pentagon for the US Navy to let anybody get one of its SM-6s.
that's what I thought, too.
To be fair the SM6 and its air launched versions are pretty critical to US defense plans and any hope of maintaining credible deterrence vs China over Taiwan. If Raytheon had the capacity in place to produce them in volume (the standard version or the new land launched air launched versions) and the array of oops we need more long range strike missiles and air to air missiles (ground or air based) were all being produced now and in more than tiny batches. Then Ukraine might be getting some (SM6s). But honestly I can't see the US risking its tiny amount now. Before the Ukraine war blew up US plans for adding the SM6 was what 100 or so a year and that was before the army/marines and the air launched version all were a thing. This close to election do you really think Biden can risk now wall to wall FOX coverage of the his admiration stripping the US navy of its most important missle to give them to Ukraine?
Even the logical option of front loading a large contract with Raytheon to scale up production with the aim of providing some to Ukraine ASAP and of course concurrently doing what the US should be doing improving its production capacity past boutique status would likely be attacked. Since I dunno people seem to believe that does not involve spending in the US and creating more well paying jobs in the US defense sector.
I cannot see like point in belaboring Israel's special status in US policy. Like it or not it was a long time bi-partisan thing in the making and its not going to change on a dime no matter what Israel does in the short term.
They are being used in the red sea tho.
True, but... FIrst as I said Israel is a special case that is not going to have its special status in US politics derailed easily. In addition it worth considering that the use in the red sea crosses over to the freedom of the seas mission due to the generalized nature Houthi attacks on shipping including actual US ships. Importantly the use is in a place where US enemies have low ability to observe the SM6 in action or any likelihood of recovering bits of them. That would different if Ukraine was say using the new air launched version to drive back the Russian air force with long range BVR shots into/over Russia.
Not no matter. No matter short of nukes. But in general you are right on Israel.
I am afraid you are right, but it feels wrong to «like» that post.
Because the Su-30s can release glide bombs at very long range, Patriots batteries would have to brought very close to the frontline. These days that is far too risky; there's nowhere to hide anymore which means GBAD is out of the question. Ukraine does not have the air-launched missiles and airframes that could do the job, so it all depends upon attacking the VKS's logistics chain which Ukraine does appear to be doing. If they can't fly, they can't bomb.
Today, when ZSU can shoot down recon drones by other UAVs, may it be safer to move a Patriot battery in assault mode closer to front line when it would be secured by a few squads hunting recon drones nearby?
Right now we see compilation videos of drones being intercepted but we don't have specific dates and times of the event, just a geolocation. If you intercept one, are you sure that there are no others in the area? Currently, Russian reports say that when they lose a reconnaissance drone they just get a new one the next day. There are usually multiple drones flown by multiple units in an area.
Dear Tom , Don. I found next article about rocket AIM-174B for US army. https://www.twz.com/air/disclosure-of-new-aim-174b-missile-brings-navys-future-air-to-air-strategy-into-focus
What Do You think about this rocket and integration it to Ukrainian F-16?
I guess that this would require new radar and electronics. Not a simple or cheap upgrade
As ever, thank you, Don.
The unwillingness to equip Ukraine with the GBAD it needs, plus Meteors (and aircraft that can carry them) to take out the Sukhois, must be the most obvious condemnation of the slow pace of support for Ukraine.
Btw, re SM-6s, the US NAvy's air-launched version (AIM 174) could do the job but they are new, scarce, and needed in the Pacific. Also, the last thing the US Navy wants is for one to be recovered by the Russians and sold to China. Since the intercepts would have to happen in Russian airspace that might be too high a risk to ignore.
https://www.twz.com/air/how-the-aim-174-could-pop-chinas-anti-access-bubble-in-the-pacific
I think that the cost of these missiles is 4+ million EUR apiece, too...
Here in Europe, The Champions League is serious business. It's roughly 50% of the size of the EU defence industry (not sure the UK is still included). Since UEFA changed the system, nobody knows who plays who, where, why and how teams qualify to the next round! This is far more important than some war in Vkraina overo Paese de Cosacchi Tanaiti Soggetti al Moscovita. It will take us years to figure out and get used to the new Champions League (or is it the Holy League?) format. Years I say! Heads of State of every European nation have attended more football matches, than meetings on the topic of "Russian invasion of Ukraine" (btw, it's actually called War in Ukraine, because Ukraine fights itself you doughnut). How much does the Pope enjoy football, compared to his interest in the war? How dare you talk about the Champions League this way.
With regards to Israel, FOR GOD'S SAKE, what don't you understand? ISRAEL IS IN UEFA! Maccabi Tel-Aviv are in the Europa League (lost both games so far). Ergo, they are the same as us! Is Al Ahed FC in UEFA? No, it isn't! Start the jet engines.
Have you taken lessons in sarcasm from Tom? Well, it is of course possible to learn. You are then obviously not a me,ber of GenStab U.
Thank you Tom and Don,
I share your frustrations Tom. History repeating far too soon 🤷🏼♂️🤦🏼♂️.
4 months. If anyone can do it, it's Ukraine but they shouldn't need to. They have enough to deal with, without their allies failing them.
Thank you Tom. You wrote clearly about the prospects of "help" for Ukraine from the US and the EU, although, to the delight of optimists, such statements are also heard from there: https://ukranews.com/ua/news/1039550-vijna-v-ukrayini
As for the mood inside the EU - this is criminal carelessness, given the size of the Armed Forces, say, of Germany (62 thousand people) or France (114 thousand people). Restoring their combat capability to the level of the Cold War will take years. Thus, in a non-nuclear war with Russia on European territory, NATO has no chance - it will be swept away in a couple of weeks! But instead of putting all its efforts into strengthening the last outpost between itself and the brutalized Russia - Ukraine, the West hopes to appease Putin at its expense. The options of a mass exodus of Ukrainians, in case of defeat, to the West and the advancement of Russian troops there after them are not being considered.
What happened to the giant German rearmament program of 100+ billions EUR announced by a German chancellor in March 2022?
Good question. I have a feeling they, and the EU in general want to still believe they can pacify the Kremlin with money while making more themselves.
More depression coming my way. I suppose now that I should learn to love watching train wrecks as the old joke goes. Geeez.
Ok, maybe I dont love our oligarchs as much as you do Tom, but I think the EU will support. However most of that support will be in the form of money and various civilian equipment.
It’s dishonest to say Ukraine is on its own and without EU support, production has ramped up significantly, with artillery and ammunition being sent in ever increasing quantities
Do we have any recent numbers? I saw that the Czech initiative had delivered one third of the promised munitions, and EU is still struggling to reach the promised one million shells, when N. Korea is going to deliver three million shells per year to Russia alone
Thanks Don
Here's a perfect confirmation of what Tom was talking about - two of the Trio Fantasticus found a reason to sabotage the trip to Germany! Without them, Rammstein is doomed to failure.
https://censor.net/ua/news/3513925/blinken_ne_poyide_na_nastupnyyi_ramshtayin