Don's Weekly, 7 April 2025: Part 1
by Donald Hill (intro by Tom Cooper)
Hello everybody!
…and here we are: the next Monday is here… the first in April, a month in which the thaw in Ukraine should be over, and for which some are already announcing a resumption of the Russian offensive (or a new, ‘Russian spring offensive’), or an Ukrainian counteroffensive… as always depending on personal preferences, I guess.
In reality, though exactly as expected, the Russians are experiencing ever more serious shortfalls with mobilisation, while the introduction of the corps-command structure in the ZSU is coming forward, but slowly. As must have been expected considering it’s undertaken amid ongoing combat operations.
So, for example, there is the III Army Corps, centred on the 3rd Assault and the 66th Mechanised Brigades, but where the rest is anything else than ‘fix’. Then, there’s the IX Army Corps, centred on the 4th Tank-, 47th Mechanised and 47th Artillery Brigades. The X Cops (mostly units from the 110-series) and XI Corps (60-series) should be - more or less - ‘there’. The progress of eight other corpses is much less obvious: the nominal composition of the XXX Corps (Naval Infantry/Marines), for example, is ‘crystal clear’, but disentangling units dismembered by Syrsky’s chess-games, expanding and re-training the command staff, and similar, simply can’t be done ‘at once’: that’s going to go on for a few months longer. Probably the rest of this year.
In the air, and following related US demands, the missile- and UAV-offensives on the ‘critical’ (energy) infra-structure of either side have ebbed to a degree. That aspect of the war is continued by targeting other objects, though: so much so, the number of Russian attack UAVs managing to overpower selected sectors of the Ukrainian integrated air defence system (IADS) is on the increase. Recently, there was a night where over 30 have reached their targets. A bit comforting is that we can nowadays regularly see Ukrainian F-16s (where, and just for example, 19 F-16s from The Netherlands have been delivered) flying air strikes on selected command nodes and troop concentrations on the Russian side, but the Russian Su-25s and Su-34s are doing the same with selected targets on the Ukrainian side - and both air forces remain severely troubled by enemy IADS’. The electronic war is raging at higher intensity than ever before - to a degree where, on one side, it’s almost surprising any of Ukrainian-deployed, GPS-guided ammunition is still working, though, on the other, it’s comforting to hear many of ZSU troops ‘can’t care less’ about the Russian UMPK glide bombs (aka ‘KABs’), simply because the mass of these is missing by wide margins.
With other words: the fighting is going on, nothing changed in this regards: it’s just its forms that are continuously transforming…
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Kursk
Russians were attacked in southern Basivka with multiple drone attacks after they secured the village. A Russian drone drops a bomb on the border control building. A pair of MT-LBs were destroyed 500 meters inside Ukraine by Russian drones. Ukraine’s air force drops a pair of bombs in Russian-occupied Guyevo.
Andrew Perpetua’s team records vehicle losses when they receive the videos. They recorded these losses from 25 February to 31 March. Russia brought in one of their best drone units a couple weeks before the collapse of the bulge and at least 147 Ukrainian vehicles were lost on the three roads leading from Ukraine to Sudzha. The interdiction of the roads made it difficult to supply Ukrainian forces or transport casualties out of Kursk. It also made retreating dangerous.
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Belgorod
The atmospheric conditions in this area were ‘right’ to see the pressure wave of a Russian bomb exploding in a treeline by a small lake.
After a Russian drone exposed Ukrainian infantry in one position, another pursued them to a nearby house in Demidovka. Russian artillery also targeted houses in the village.
A Russian Lancet and several reconnaissance drones were intercepted in the area.
Video of an unknown date shows the Ukrainian vehicles that were knocked out at the border. The M113 and T72 were likely recovered since Perpetua’s team didn’t record them based on previous videos. Also, a Russian helicopter 4 km northeast of Demidovka launches rockets in the direction of Ukraine.
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Kupiansk
The Russians pushed into Kamianka while under attack from drones, and a Ukrainian Maxxpro was damaged and then destroyed at the limit of the Russian advance south of Zapadne.
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Terny
Russian forces were able to make a 2 km advance west of Novoliubivka.
Russian forces have been trying to reach Borova by trying to wear down Ukrainian troops with constant attacks. The 3rd Corps, formerly the 3rd Assault Brigade, not only held its ground but occasionally made gains with small local counterattacks.
Russia conducted three offensives in 2024 with the 20th Combined Arms Army, mainly with infantry, and suffered heavy losses. The commander and chief of staff was removed from the 20th CAA, as was the commander of the 3rd Mechanized Division, which was part of the 20th CAA. The 1st Tank Army took their place and their many attacks with vehicles are also suffering heavy losses of both vehicles. The commander of the 3rd Corps, Biletsky, says the losses are heavy due to poor planning and the 1st Tank Army is running out of vehicles.
The Russians shifted their attacks further south and advanced up to 10 km past Novobiulivka and Ivanivka since September, but Biletsky says the advances there will come to a complete halt in the coming weeks.
The 3rd Corps’s drone unit expanded into a battalion just in February, 2024. In June 2024, a battalion of the (then) brigade was sent to stop the Russian attack towards Borova and a point system was established in the army for each drone attack: 4 points for each wounded soldier, six for each soldier killed, 20 points for a damaged 152 mm gun and 40 if it is destroyed, and so on. These points could then be redeemed for more drones. From October 2024 to January 2025, the (then) brigade led the army in points. Biletsky credits the Russians for much of their success.
After deploying part of their unit to this sector, the 3rd Assault Brigade conducted operations in Novodiane (August 2024), Nevske (October 2024), and Nadiia (March 2025). The distance between Nadiia and Nevske is 24 km.
This video shows the assault on Nadiia a month ago. It starts with a Russian rocket attack on Ukrainian positions 4.5 km south of Nadiia. The Ukrainian squad that dismounts appears to be inexperienced as they are constantly reminded to disperse so one drone or shell won’t be able to injure or kill all of them at once.
Five companies were involved in the attack with tank and drone support and the battalion command post was able to direct operations in response to enemy movement and manage the ammo reserved for the operation. They also provided EW support and intercepted enemy radio transmissions. The infantry on the ground was still needed to spot targets that the drones couldn’t see and they were needed to secure the ground and defend against Russian counterattacks. The Russians spent two months and expended two regiments to take the village and the 3rd Brigade took it back in 30 hours.
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Siversk
The fight for Siversk never stops but the Russians made very little progress in over two years. One Russian general was fired for lying about his progress.
Russia normally attacks to the west but in their latest effort they attacked north from Zolotarivka to try and take Bilohorivka from behind but were eliminated. The Russians have suffered over 3,000 casualties in eleven months of fighting for the rubble.
A Russian BMP is immobilized and its passengers are attacked.
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(…to be continued…)
Thank you so much. Greetings from the metro while going to work. We are in this together. Waiting for part 2.
I was not familiar with the MT-LB, and reading about its history and all its many variants has been fascinating.