Have addressed this in a post on the Facebook, about three weeks ago...
In that case, the 'prompt' were complaints about 'sharing' a post by Ms Mariana Bezuhla. This prompted complaints that 'she's crazy' and similar stuff. Therefore, I wrote:
OK, boys and girls - especially from Ukraine (or, Ukrainians living abroad)... for '94th time':
frankly (as always), I do not care what do you think about Ms Mariana Bezuhla's political orientation, political demands, or whatever is she doing in this regards, nor about her mental abilities or anything else of that kind.
Sorry, I do not.
The reason is that whenever she reports specific critique (pay attention: CRITIQUE, no criticism) about the ZSU and the PSU, and I check it - sorry: it turns out she's right. Indeed, 'right on money'.
Now, perhaps sometimes Ms Bezuhla is (what could be described as) '85% right' and other times '100% right'. Nobody is perfect (I'm the first to emphasise this in regards of myself: I'm FAR from being perfect). But, as much as she is 'sometimes slightly more right' and 'other times slightly less right', and as much as I dislike her cheering of Zelensky, essential for me as a military historian and analyst is that, when it comes to what she writes about the ZSU & PSU - she's 'right'.
That's why I find her 'reporting' and 'complaints' about the condition of the ZSU, PSU etc. for 'OK', and, sometimes, 'share' it.
That said: I do not orientate on Ms. Bezuhla's 'reporting' for what I'm reporting. Just like I'm not orientating on Mr. Butusov for what I'm reporting, or on Mr. Perpetua for what I'm reporting.
I do 'merely happen' to hear plenty of similar- or exactly the same things they get to hear. That's why our reporting is sometimes similar or the same, too (indeed, in this regards, I cannot avoid the 'impression' that there is a remarkable number of very different people reporting remarkably same things about the situation within the ZSU and the PSU to all three-four of us... and to few others too.... so much so, I would call that a 'pattern in behaviour'.)
...and that's also the essence of why I do not always/all the time/continuously 'share' every of Ms. Bezuhla or Mr. Butusov's or Mr. Perpetua's social media posts: only those I (personally) find 'worth special attention'.
Indeed, it's often so that I get something to hear and do not even have the time to 'react', write about what I've got to hear - before they do so.
In such cases, can only say: great, has saved me a lots of (additional) work.
Actually, and if you're eager to complain about me, do so about the following: as indicated a few times already, in some cases I could go far further (I do 'know enough') than I'm doing. See: I could talk about people awarded the title 'Hero of Ukraine' for shooting down nothing at all, for merely claiming to have shot down something; or similar decorations being issued to people for claiming one thing, and then turning out to have (literally) killed a colleague from another unit...
With other words: I know about things that are really 'bad'. And still, I'm not reporting about them.
I'm 'self-censoring' myself.
So if you have to, or if you like: express your critique for me being that way. But, please, be so kind and don't complain to me about politics, ideology, or other traits, nor for the content other people are reporting and I 'share'. The only way in which I'm 'judging' anybody is his or her deeds, I know what I'm doing, and I know I've got good reasons to share it.
What I wrote above is not a criticism of you personally, and I am not going to write any complaints against you. I decided to inform people here about this information resource of Yuriy Butusov and his connections in Ukrainian politics. Why? To be more careful with the information he provides. However, I was misunderstood. The fact that you take some of the information you are interested in from Ukrainian information resources and work with it to form a picture of what is happening is quite understandable to me. I just thought that someone would be interested in Butusov's political motivation. However, you have made it clear to me that this information is not of interest to you. Therefore, I am deleting my comment.
I like this. It has the ring of truth about it. Tell me it is the unadorned truth: no biased twisting or omissions, editings ?
If you are so truthful then you'd know the true situation better than any of us who have nothing to go by except the biased, distorted actually lying stories of both sides.
So if you do know the situation please tell it. Just a few lines might do.
What are the important truths?
Is the Kiev side worn down to paper thin?
Is the russian side strong and capable?
I strongly suspect much incompetence in the Russian army that stops it being strong and capable.
I strongly suspect the Kiev side is much stronger in every way than is publicly estimated.
Не переймайся, це був сарказм по відношенню до другої армії світу, де Том +- пів року тому дуже влучно сказав:- що бункерний дід зробив все можливе щоб професійну армію знищити, а натомість зібрати збіговисько, звичайно я можу помилятися в точності трактування його слів, але наскільки я пам'ятаю і розумію.
Scott Ritter is your guy ;) Seriously, the fog of war and all that! Compared to the mainstream media, this blog will give a more timely and accurate assessment. Tom and Don explain important issues that aren't discussed in that same media. I'd suggest reading Stefan Korshak for wider reporting and Andrew Tanner for deeper war-gaming analysis. There's also Reporting From Ukraine.
I've been following this deeply for 3 years. In general, I'd say the stronger the predictions the weaker the analysis ;)
Me too. I love Dylan's stuff but I disagree with him about Israel. Strongly disagree ;) Wes it great too. Many writers on Medium who write interesting stuff.
Well regarding Israel I am much more into Tom’s camp. Dylan is blind there. I can live with that. I know his faults there. But the point for me is to read several persons perspective and learn from it.
Regardless if me - or 'us' (there are meanwhile three-four of us contributing to this blog) - is truthful or not, the only thing I can offer is my assessment:
- Kyiv worn down? The government and top command of the armed forces are corrupt and incompetent (with exception of Drapaty). Means: the country could to MUCH better than it does. Shouldn't mean it's worn down or paper thin. Foremost: regardless what that government does - even if it folds - the people of Ukraine are going to continue fighting. And that until all of Ukraine is free, and you like that or not.
Which is bringing me to your last question: Is Ukraine stronger than publicly estimated? That's the problem: it is. Potentially/theoretically. It is not, because of its incompetent government and top generals. If these would let the 'others' do what they could, that would change in a matter of months.
- 'Russia' strong? Nope. Even more incompetent and corrupt than Ukrainian government - and that at every level (indeed: utterly incompetent and corrupt, which is about the only achievement of Pudding's regime). It can't win this war, which is why Pudding is as obsessed with continuing it: the country is in tatters, neither the armed forces nor the economy have any solutions for the situation, so they've got no other options but to find ever additional ideas for how to continue assaulting - even if it's the most stupid and absurd ideas imaginable, resulting in incredible losses. Is going to work well for a while longer, because the economy is still running thanks to its primary exports (natural resources). The question is: how long might that while longer last.
well thanks for that assessment. it plays right into my deepest fears. and right into my basic instinct about the whole situation over there generally which is that it's just that way, that's the way folks, business, life, is conducted thereabouts and always has been.
Need to make a correction here. KAB is a guided bomb, initially designed to be guided. While UMPK is a dumb bomb made gliding and somewhat guided, more cheap and, thus, more numerous.
KAB is for high-value target, while UMPK is for "mass-market".
Thanks for the update. Interesting air war developments. The F-16 gets some use, that’s good. Not saying it is cost efficient (not denying it either) the good news is that it is used. But the more things change, the more they remain the same.
Have addressed this in a post on the Facebook, about three weeks ago...
In that case, the 'prompt' were complaints about 'sharing' a post by Ms Mariana Bezuhla. This prompted complaints that 'she's crazy' and similar stuff. Therefore, I wrote:
OK, boys and girls - especially from Ukraine (or, Ukrainians living abroad)... for '94th time':
frankly (as always), I do not care what do you think about Ms Mariana Bezuhla's political orientation, political demands, or whatever is she doing in this regards, nor about her mental abilities or anything else of that kind.
Sorry, I do not.
The reason is that whenever she reports specific critique (pay attention: CRITIQUE, no criticism) about the ZSU and the PSU, and I check it - sorry: it turns out she's right. Indeed, 'right on money'.
Now, perhaps sometimes Ms Bezuhla is (what could be described as) '85% right' and other times '100% right'. Nobody is perfect (I'm the first to emphasise this in regards of myself: I'm FAR from being perfect). But, as much as she is 'sometimes slightly more right' and 'other times slightly less right', and as much as I dislike her cheering of Zelensky, essential for me as a military historian and analyst is that, when it comes to what she writes about the ZSU & PSU - she's 'right'.
That's why I find her 'reporting' and 'complaints' about the condition of the ZSU, PSU etc. for 'OK', and, sometimes, 'share' it.
That said: I do not orientate on Ms. Bezuhla's 'reporting' for what I'm reporting. Just like I'm not orientating on Mr. Butusov for what I'm reporting, or on Mr. Perpetua for what I'm reporting.
I do 'merely happen' to hear plenty of similar- or exactly the same things they get to hear. That's why our reporting is sometimes similar or the same, too (indeed, in this regards, I cannot avoid the 'impression' that there is a remarkable number of very different people reporting remarkably same things about the situation within the ZSU and the PSU to all three-four of us... and to few others too.... so much so, I would call that a 'pattern in behaviour'.)
...and that's also the essence of why I do not always/all the time/continuously 'share' every of Ms. Bezuhla or Mr. Butusov's or Mr. Perpetua's social media posts: only those I (personally) find 'worth special attention'.
Indeed, it's often so that I get something to hear and do not even have the time to 'react', write about what I've got to hear - before they do so.
In such cases, can only say: great, has saved me a lots of (additional) work.
Actually, and if you're eager to complain about me, do so about the following: as indicated a few times already, in some cases I could go far further (I do 'know enough') than I'm doing. See: I could talk about people awarded the title 'Hero of Ukraine' for shooting down nothing at all, for merely claiming to have shot down something; or similar decorations being issued to people for claiming one thing, and then turning out to have (literally) killed a colleague from another unit...
With other words: I know about things that are really 'bad'. And still, I'm not reporting about them.
I'm 'self-censoring' myself.
So if you have to, or if you like: express your critique for me being that way. But, please, be so kind and don't complain to me about politics, ideology, or other traits, nor for the content other people are reporting and I 'share'. The only way in which I'm 'judging' anybody is his or her deeds, I know what I'm doing, and I know I've got good reasons to share it.
What I wrote above is not a criticism of you personally, and I am not going to write any complaints against you. I decided to inform people here about this information resource of Yuriy Butusov and his connections in Ukrainian politics. Why? To be more careful with the information he provides. However, I was misunderstood. The fact that you take some of the information you are interested in from Ukrainian information resources and work with it to form a picture of what is happening is quite understandable to me. I just thought that someone would be interested in Butusov's political motivation. However, you have made it clear to me that this information is not of interest to you. Therefore, I am deleting my comment.
Buck. I would be interested what about Butusov...
I checked the link re the Ukrainian HIMARS attack on the Russian choppers - IT was a Mi-28 Havoc VS the claimed KA52...
I was not familiar with the MT-LB, and reading about its history and all its many variants has been fascinating.
Thank you so much. Greetings from the metro while going to work. We are in this together. Waiting for part 2.
I like this. It has the ring of truth about it. Tell me it is the unadorned truth: no biased twisting or omissions, editings ?
If you are so truthful then you'd know the true situation better than any of us who have nothing to go by except the biased, distorted actually lying stories of both sides.
So if you do know the situation please tell it. Just a few lines might do.
What are the important truths?
Is the Kiev side worn down to paper thin?
Is the russian side strong and capable?
I strongly suspect much incompetence in the Russian army that stops it being strong and capable.
I strongly suspect the Kiev side is much stronger in every way than is publicly estimated.
?
Я розумію що питання адресовані не мені, але 2 армія світу, нагадайте який рік? Воює? Який? Успіх?
sorry mate, google translate gives me something I don't understand..
Не переймайся, це був сарказм по відношенню до другої армії світу, де Том +- пів року тому дуже влучно сказав:- що бункерний дід зробив все можливе щоб професійну армію знищити, а натомість зібрати збіговисько, звичайно я можу помилятися в точності трактування його слів, але наскільки я пам'ятаю і розумію.
all a bit over my head I think, Mikhail. :)
Scott Ritter is your guy ;) Seriously, the fog of war and all that! Compared to the mainstream media, this blog will give a more timely and accurate assessment. Tom and Don explain important issues that aren't discussed in that same media. I'd suggest reading Stefan Korshak for wider reporting and Andrew Tanner for deeper war-gaming analysis. There's also Reporting From Ukraine.
I've been following this deeply for 3 years. In general, I'd say the stronger the predictions the weaker the analysis ;)
Hey, I think we are reading the same blogs…. Hmm I have had my suspicions for some time :-)
HAHA You have any other additions?
I read Dylan Combelicks and Wes Donald in addition.
Me too. I love Dylan's stuff but I disagree with him about Israel. Strongly disagree ;) Wes it great too. Many writers on Medium who write interesting stuff.
Well regarding Israel I am much more into Tom’s camp. Dylan is blind there. I can live with that. I know his faults there. But the point for me is to read several persons perspective and learn from it.
where do you read them?
thanks very much for those references. some sobering information there.
Good attempt with the updated capitalization, bitch. But write "Kyiv" next time.
It's Kiev you NAZI cunt.
Regardless if me - or 'us' (there are meanwhile three-four of us contributing to this blog) - is truthful or not, the only thing I can offer is my assessment:
- Kyiv worn down? The government and top command of the armed forces are corrupt and incompetent (with exception of Drapaty). Means: the country could to MUCH better than it does. Shouldn't mean it's worn down or paper thin. Foremost: regardless what that government does - even if it folds - the people of Ukraine are going to continue fighting. And that until all of Ukraine is free, and you like that or not.
Which is bringing me to your last question: Is Ukraine stronger than publicly estimated? That's the problem: it is. Potentially/theoretically. It is not, because of its incompetent government and top generals. If these would let the 'others' do what they could, that would change in a matter of months.
- 'Russia' strong? Nope. Even more incompetent and corrupt than Ukrainian government - and that at every level (indeed: utterly incompetent and corrupt, which is about the only achievement of Pudding's regime). It can't win this war, which is why Pudding is as obsessed with continuing it: the country is in tatters, neither the armed forces nor the economy have any solutions for the situation, so they've got no other options but to find ever additional ideas for how to continue assaulting - even if it's the most stupid and absurd ideas imaginable, resulting in incredible losses. Is going to work well for a while longer, because the economy is still running thanks to its primary exports (natural resources). The question is: how long might that while longer last.
well thanks for that assessment. it plays right into my deepest fears. and right into my basic instinct about the whole situation over there generally which is that it's just that way, that's the way folks, business, life, is conducted thereabouts and always has been.
"Russian UMPK glide bombs (aka ‘KABs’)"
Need to make a correction here. KAB is a guided bomb, initially designed to be guided. While UMPK is a dumb bomb made gliding and somewhat guided, more cheap and, thus, more numerous.
KAB is for high-value target, while UMPK is for "mass-market".
...which is why I'm naming UMPKs - UMPKs... .but, everybody else is talking about KABs, so I have to explain why am I using UMPK.
https://elienammour.substack.com/p/reckoning
Thanks for the update. Interesting air war developments. The F-16 gets some use, that’s good. Not saying it is cost efficient (not denying it either) the good news is that it is used. But the more things change, the more they remain the same.
Former Ukrainian commander criticizes Syrsky in the Guardian, says his actions are “borderline criminal”: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/09/ukraine-military-chief-oleksandr-syrskyi-must-go-bohdan-krotevych