Don's Weekly, 5 May 2025: Part 3 (Crimea & Russia)
by Donald Hill
(…continued from Part 2…)
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Crimea
Ukraine started a new (16th or 17th) campaign of targeting air defenses in Crimea a month ago. The attacks and other incursions by a small number of drones recorded radars that were activated and additional air defenses that responded to the incursions. Several air defense systems were unable to protect themselves or adjacent radars against the drones. You can see a missile flying into the ground immediately after launch. An S-400 air defense system was attacked near Saky on April 25th.
Aerial reconnaissance planes also recorded the reactions of Russia’s air defenses. One US naval reconnaissance plane flew close to Novorossiysk. This is unusual because they rarely fly that far and they reverted to unmanned drones before stopping their flights and letting their NATO partners assume the mission. Here’s a flight path of the same type of plane flying closer to Romania.
On 1 May, a Ukrainian unit used drones to destroy a logistics truck, 3 radars, and three components of air defense systems in Crimea.
Naval drones had been hunted by Russian helicopters and jets, but on 31 December, two Russian Mi-8 helicopters were shot down by naval drones deploying re-purposed R-73 air-to-air missiles, the first time that was done. Another Russian helicopter was shot down by a naval drone. On 2 May, multiple Ukrainian sea drones were operating near Novorossiysk, where many surviving Russian naval vessels relocated after withdrawing from Sevastopol. Three of the sea drones were Magura-7s, an air defense version of the Magura-5. Su-30 aircraft were sent to engage the drones and two of them were shot down with AIM-9M missiles fired from the boats. The AIM-9 is harder to lock on the target than the R-73 but it performs better against infrared countermeasures (in which the warhead is blinded by lasers), it is better at distinguishing the target from other background clutter and it discharges less smoke, so it’s harder to identify and evade.
On 2 and 3 May, there were widespread Ukrainian air strikes throughout Crimea. The Russians claimed they shot down 170 drones, 8 Storm Shadow missiles, three Neptunes and sank 14 drone boats. Several drones flew over Novorossiysk and the Russians say one hit a residential building, and a second building was hit by something. Ukrainian naval drones were intercepted near the city. Explosions at Saky airfield. There were multiple explosions at Kacha airbase but this is a fire at Uhlove 7 km away. Explosions and anti-aircraft activity was present at Kerch at night and during the day.
On 3 May, a drone crashed in Taman. 120 km southeast of Rostov-on-Don a drone crashed into a house.
Ukrainian naval drones attack a Russian oil rig with a missile and drones.
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A Ukrainian MiG-29 launches a pair of AASM bombs.
After being tracked-down by a Shark reconnaissance UAV, a Russian Buk M3 air defense system was destroyed by a GMLRS strike.
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Russia
Russia’s economic ministry supplemented its original optimistic forecast with a high-risk scenario. This scenario said that Brent crude oil would drop to $58.10 (it’s currently at $61.29), and then drop to $50 per barrel in 2026. The Russian benchmark of Urals blend was projected to be $56 per barrel originally but the high-risk scenario places it at $48.80. The ministry also revised the Russian 2025 inflation rate from 7.6% to 8.2%, although some food prices have risen by 20%. And while the ruble gained 38% against the dollar since the beginning of 2025 (at 81.7 rubles to the dollar at the time of the report) it is expected to weaken to 96.6 rubles to the dollar this year. "The volume of goods exports will decrease more than the volume of imports, which will lead to a reduction of the trade balance and, as a result, to a stronger depreciation of the ruble," the ministry said.
There is a lot of moving parts in the world energy markets. OPEC production is increasing and Trump’s trade wars are slowing the economies and demand for oil, both of which will reduce the price of oil. A bill in the US Senate proposes 500% tariffs on any country that purchases oil from Russia, but that has yet to pass. If it does, Russia produces about 12% of the world’s oil so even with the smaller demand and higher OPEC production, additional production would be needed and non-Russian oil prices would rise. To complicate matters, Trump just announced that anyone buying oil from Iran will not be allowed to do business in the US, and China buys 81% of Iran’s oil. It’s unclear if the business ban is what Trump meant or just what he said, but Trump’s 145% tariffs have already gone a long way to reducing trade between China and the US. Iran produces about 4% of the world’s oil exports.
Russia’s two largest banks reported an increase in unpaid mortgage and consumer loans in the first quarter of 2025. At Sberbank, the number of mortgages with missed payments increased by 90%. Overdue consumer loans increased from 12.4% to 16.1%. Many of those defaulting have a long history of paying on time. High interest rates were the primary cause of defaults, and defaulting led some to join the army for the bonus.
Russia believes that a man born in Ukraine killed the Russian general with a car bomb. He had been living as a resident in Russia since 2015. He rented an apartment in the same building as the general, parked a car with explosives and a surveillance camera near the entrance on April 16th, left Russia for Turkey on April 19th. The car bomb exploded on April 25th. The Russians called the attack barbaric and treacherous.
A month ago, the head of US and NATO forces said Russia was recruiting 30,000 people a month. Since most of the lightly wounded returned to duty, the Russian army in Ukraine grew to 600,000 people, about twice the size of the original invasion force.
In the Vietnam war, the US kept accurate records of the individuals and their missions and still had 2,633 missing service personnel as of 1973. They’ve since recovered the bodies of 1,061 men, but over 1,572 are still ‘missing in action’.
Russian record keeping isn’t as detailed and they are unsure of how many soldiers are actually missing. In Rostov, a military morgue has the bodies, but 15,000 soldiers remain unidentified. An unknown number of bodies have yet to be recovered. At some locations on the front, hundreds of bodies are lying where they fell. Russian recovery teams recommend that soldiers write their identities down and place them in a plastic bag so they will be easier to identify. A new law allows commanding officers to go to court six months after they lost contact with a soldier and declare him missing. This halts the soldier’s combat pay, but some officers don’t report missing soldiers and keep his pay for themselves. As of last November, 48,000 relatives submitted DNA (some of which were different relatives looking for the same soldier). A Ukrainian government program that locates captured or killed Russian servicemen received 88,000 requests for information, although it is unknown how many requests were for the same individual.
Rostov was attacked by a missile. 300 km southeast of Rostov, a Russian space signals intelligence unit was hit.
Evacuation of Russia’s wounded from the front line is becoming increasingly difficulty because of drones and artillery. If they are not removed with quad bikes or other motorized vehicles, they are frequently abandoned to look after themselves.
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(…to be concluded in the Part 4…)
Regarding the mutual airstrikes. Russia is obviously hitting targets, it’s easier to do when you simply target civilians. However that seems both morally and strategically totally wrong. We don’t need to discuss morality, but strategically hitting the enemies defense systems must be more valuable than hitting civilians. But of course Ukraine needs to protect both its citizens and its soldiers. Which currently is impossible. Still I think Ukraine is smarter here.
If their worst case scenario says 48 USD then they have another one unpublished which is worse. Be that as it may, they are obviously concerned. But they cannot really do much. On the other hand the energy market is complex and volatile so it can go up again for some reason.