14 Comments

Thanks Don!

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According to an article, Russia has amassed a large quantity of troops and tanks/IFVs for an attack to Kupyansk:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/03/russia-has-massed-500-tanks-for-an-attack-on-kupyansk-thousands-of-ukrainian-drones-await-them/

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That's over a third of their tanks.

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If Ukraine manages to smash such an attack and not give away ground, it might be a major development for the whole war?

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If Russia engages with that entire force it will be a major development similar to Vuhledar, Bakhmut and Avdiivka, whichever way it turns out.

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Any evidence for that (other than an article in Forbes)?

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None, as far as I know (I saw that item on my browser)

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Thanks Don & Tom. What alternatives to SU24s are there for launching Storm Shadow / SCALP / Taurus, and is there likely a gap between SU24 end of life and getting these alternatives going?

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None.

Even F-16s are not compatible with Storm Shadow/SCALP. They are compatible with the JASSM, though.

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Hello Tom and Don. Thank you for your work. I would like to ask you how fresh are your news from Avdiivka? Because I red yesterday a lot of information about Russians managed to take control over all area's north/northwest of the lake which means big troubles and danger for AFU defenders. I am worried now about next days....

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The version I've heard goes something like this: early in the morning, a squad of Russians has managed to infiltrate the Ukrainian position. It's unclear (as of yet) how and from where. They were discovered when it was almost too late, and a fire-fight ensued at ranges 5-10 metres. Everything was happening within ruined houses, and thus the UAVs were useless.

Only one Ukrainian soldier has survived the battle: he called for artillery fire on his position.

Although several M777s were available, none fired because there were no shells for them.

It's unclear what happened after: one version is that Ukrainians were forced to withdraw, the other that they've recovered the position.

Certain is only that the last soldier in question was found: he was wounded but evacuated.

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Thank you so much.

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Guys, you forgot to include the link for this:

"There are still civilians in Avdiivka, including where the Russians briefly had control. This video, without English subtitles, is providing some of their experiences"

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You describe the situation in Avdiivka as stable with all Russian attacks wiped out and yet Avdiivka is about to fall to the Russians.

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