Don's Weekly, 5 December 2023: Part 1

Hello everybody!

I’m a day late with uploading and releasing this one. The reasons are of personal/private/family nature. And since my standpoint is that my private affairs are my own, sorry: I’ll not go into any kind of details. Thanks for your understanding - and let us just continue with this week’s Don’s Weekly, without any further ado.

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Russia is trying to advance in several locations now that Ukraine has adopted a defensive posture, and in Avdiivka they managed to advance almost a kilometer on the northern flank. Kherson is the exception, but while Ukraine still has air superiority there, little territory has changed hands. In Russia itself, discontent grows and economic indicators show things will only become more difficult as time goes by, but no one is even close to advocating for a regime change.

Western Luhansk

A lot of combat with the associated casualties but little territorial change.

Russian tanks and infantry are attacked in the Kupiansk area…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730718804261347693

Another Russian EW system is destroyed by target-sensing artillery near Lyman…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730191712767599103

15 km west of Svatove, a Ukainian Leopard1 was shelling Russian positions until it was hit and abandoned…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729602628126994531

Bakhmut

Russian advances are small, and it’s not entirely clear where they’ve advanced, but it is clear that Ukraine is on the defense and Russia wants to generate an offense.

Attrition continues through the 92nd Assault Brigade’s airpower…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729948533153726643

The 30th Brigade detects and destroys small forward ammunition dumps near Soledar…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729586756331180287

Avdiivka

Past posts talked about the incessant artillery that pounded Ukrainian positions, made possible by Russian drones spotting their positions. Ukraine did their best to shoot down the drones. Now they’ve brought in electronic warfare systems and its having an effect. These EW systems use powerful electronic signals to overload the frequencies used by drones, blocking the signal from the drone operator and the drone, and blocking the video stream from drone to the operator. Both sides have tried to counter jamming by using different frequencies and even drones operated by AI, but while AI is an effective counter for Kamikaze drones, the return video feed is still needed for reconnaissance drones. Jamming is still effective but electronic warfare will continue to evolve over time.

Russia is still attacking with infantry, mostly on the northern flank. They’ve secured the railroad treeline and 700 and 900 meters down the treelines to the north and south of Stepove, and then pushed mercilessly further west. Indeed, since Friday, Stepove is a no-man’s land: neither Ukrainians nor Russians are exercising effective control over it.

The Russians were unable to advance elsewhere, though.

One of the distinguishing features in battlefields throughout Ukraine is trenches. Without trenches, the casualty rates on both sides would be significantly higher. When trenches have been fought over for a long time, like those in the railroad treeline next to Stepove, they become degraded by artillery until they no longer exist. This makes it difficult to hold onto the treeline once it’s taken because of all of the casualties that would be generated by the enemy’s artillery. And yet, the Russians not only dig trenches in newly conquered positions, given time, they are also able to dig tunnels. Ukraine has not dug trenches in newly gained ground, or built trenches behind the front line in case they have to retreat, or built trenches to access the front lines safely from the rear areas. It is an advantage Russia has that grows stronger as attrition takes its toll on the physical defenses around Avdiivka.

A Ukrainian describes what he sees…

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1729534328894271720

In the treeline east of Stepove, it’s cold enough so you can see the trajectory of the sniper’s bullets in a thermal camera as he hits 12 Russians in an hour. At the one minute mark you can see a Leopard tank that was immobilized and abandoned in no man’s land a month ago…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730525545274757172

6 km northeast of Avdiivka, a Russian artillery piece is detected…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730122096833884563

A pair of Russian tanks in the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka are attacked by drones. The video feed starts to break up as the drones approach the ground because terrain is interfering with the signal. Pilots have to learn to accurately fly to the target even if they cannot see it in the last few feet. …

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730332124476056059

Ammo on the back of an abandoned BTR-82A becomes the aiming point for a Ukrainian drone…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729574528282468817

90 km east of Avdiivka, Russia has 14 more BTR-82A’s waiting. This vehicle has a 30mm cannon, thermal imaging and a GLONASS navigation system. Russia had about 1100 of them before the war…

https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1728799433460957235

The lightly wounded are evacuated from the front lines. Mud still sucks…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1731303031705067688

A Russian soldier walks along a treeline with littered with the bodies of his comrades…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1730288646568173600

Russians shoots two Ukrainians that surrendered near Stepove…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730928387458289687

Kherson

Russia has recon drones and jets that conduct airstrikes, but those conducting the airstrikes do not communicate with those that conduct reconnaissance flights. The result is blind bombing coupled with their inaccurate glide bombing, making the airstrikes even less effective. But a near miss can still be catastrophic.

The bad weather eliminated reconnaissance flights for the drones of both sides for a time. Ukraine took advantage of this by shipping over ammo and troops. There is now a reported 400 Ukrainian troops in the Krynky area. This is still a small number of troops for the amount of ground they occupy. It’s possible because Russian troops of different units aren’t coordinating attacks, Ukraine has heavy artillery and drone fire support, and the Russian troops have low morale and are reluctant to attack even when ordered to do so. Ukraine’s low troop density also reduces the chances of casualties, too. If you remember a few months ago, when Russia held Klishchiivka, near Bakhmut, they packed it full of troops. It was hard for Ukrainian artillery to miss so many troops in such a small place and Russian casualties were heavy.

Much like the previous weeks, the only news from the sector comes in the form of videos that make their way online as each side shows off their successes. From these videos, it does not appear that much territory has changed hands. The multiple shellings and drone attacks west of Krynky is on par with previous weeks but the heavy Ukrainian drone attacks in Korsunka is notable.

Ukraine has air superiority in this sector with estimates of three drone attacks for every Russian drone attack. But Russia has been able to damage and destroy Ukrainian artillery and radars on the right bank. This was one of Ukraine’s best radars. Three nights earlier, Russian drone attacks exposed many of Ukraine’s air defenses that had to expose themselves in order to defend the country…

https://twitter.com/HamWa07/status/1729558192508559632

This Ukrainian radar was also destroyed, possibly in the Kherson region…

https://twitter.com/WarVehicle/status/1730646029316350254

45 km from the river, another Russian air defense system is destroyed…

https://twitter.com/99Dominik_/status/1730217366213022029

A TOS-1A was detected a night after it attacked Ukrainian troops. If you can see it, you can kill it…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730131015820058877

A series of drone attacks in Korsunka, east of Krynky…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1730294888183288048

Krynky has been subjected to weeks of bombs, MLRS and thermobaric bombardments. Low Ukrainian troop density helps reduce casualties…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729957627000504811

A Russian drone team was tracked to a house 3.5 km from Krynky and hit by Magyar’s Birds…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729953259127706095

A Russian-occupied house and a supply truck is hit by drones…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729529706276331678

The airwar continues as a missile takes down a Russian reconnaissance drone…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729427211147432042

Across the former Kakhovka reservoir, Ukrainian drones destroy two 120mm mortars…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729177391883596099

An Ossetian unit came to Ukraine with 86 men. There’s only seven of them left now, so they drink…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1729862802259726356

A scene on the left bank…

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1729200133223727296

Elena was arrested when Kherson was occupied and she continues her blog now…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1731296238488691092

The grandmother and grandaughter were on their way to the market when the artillery shell landed. The grandmother’s body shielded her granddaughter from most of the shrapnel but one of three pieces landed in her heart. Both survived…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1731024604825550884

More shelling of Kherson for no reason but to cause suffering…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1731352202025791834

Crimea

Saky air base was hit again…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729949878392926303

Crimean TV was hacked again to show a Zelensky speech…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1729959559907729634

If you detect something, you can kill it. As noted above, a Ukrainian radar was detected and destroyed. One possible way to survive is to leave the location where you were detected. The Russian S-400 air defense system by the Kerch bridge was moved and they left decoys behind in the same location. It turns out it was only moved 800 meters northeast of its previous location. Now that it was once again detected, there is a possibility to destroy it…

https://twitter.com/HamWa07/status/1730800894772396393

The Russians added new defenses against sea drone attacks on the Kerch bridge…

https://twitter.com/BrianE6B/status/1729243206519574861

(…to be continued…)