"A Starlink terminal was found on a Shahed drone. This could allow it to navigate and be used as a reconnaissance asset, as well as hitting moving targets."
But, Musk has said he has ruled out using Starlink on drones moving at high speeds.
А високі швидкості це які? На машинах на високих швидкостях до 140 км/год старлінки працюють без проблем. Чи може шахед летіти з такою швидкістю? Думаю може...
It appears the implicit theory of victory for the West's decision makers is to make Ukraine endure until Russia's economy gives out from the unsustainable costs of the war. This could take 1-2.5 years more.
Then Russia will face economic (and social and possible political) collapse, and will need sanctions relief and bailouts from the West to prevent a coup and/or separatism and/or disintegration. Otherwise they really have no choice for a bailout but to sell Siberia to China.
The Russian elite will have to accept an West-aligned Ukraine (in EU and NATO, or at least with hard Western security guarantees) on most of the pre 2022 territory. This will be the price for an end of sanctions and bailouts. Russia's elite will accept the deal in order to safeguard their own power and to prevent economic collapse leading to social and political collapse/disintegration of Russia.
I'm not sure the 'West' is making Ukraine endure a war of attrition. It's a consequence of Ukraine defeating Russia's war of manoeuvre and they're fighting it as well as any nation could given the circumstances. Do you have any suggestion of what else Ukraine could do? Surrender? Not a chance Ukraine will ever do that, so they fight on. But I wish I was as optimistic as you that Russia will collapse completely. Putin keeps too tight a grip. Russia might collapse militarily but that brings immense risks too. What is obvious is that no one has a solution, least of all Putin.
Btw, it's a Russian disinfo talking point that Ukraine is the 'West's' puppet and has no say in how the war is fought. Let's not be useful idiots and repeat that. It's clearly untrue.
I was saying what I thought Biden-Sullivans plan really is. And yes, they are forcing Ukraine to endure a war of attrition by limiting weapons and capabilities. I don't endorse it because it is too callous and too cruel in Ukrainian lives. But Biden is underneath it all, not the kind man he pretends to be.
I don't think Russia will collapse completely. The hopeful scenario is that the danger of collapse (and threat to his own power and survival) is what will finally make Putin stop and negotiate a true peace that includes Western security guarantees to Ukraine..
Collapse or no collapse, the war will end when it threatens the stability of the regime - and yes we absolutely have a moral responsibility to try accelerate that. Also, collapse or no collapse, Russia will go through the hard times they need to start transforming
Luckily, neither you nor I are in the position of having to balance support for Ukraine against both Putin's paranoia and his wilful misinterpretation of NATO and the US's policies. We might think twice if we were.
Again, no one is forcing Ukraine to endure a war of attrition. It is what it is and that's because of Ukraine's heroic resistance. There is simply no other way to fight this war without the immense risk that Putin, an irrational actor, will go nuclear if he perceives he is under threat. I don't know about you, but I personally do not want Ukraine to become a nuclear proving ground. There is no easy solution to this problem. I do wish our governments had reacted more decisively in 2022/23 with expedited GBAD, IFVs deliveries, and munitions production. That would not have prevented a war of attrition but Ukraine would be in much better shape if we had.
I like most of what you say but I don't get your point that 'no one is forcing Ukraine to endure a war of attrition'.
We are not providing sufficient support to give Ukraine a decisive advantage. That puts Ukraine in the posiition of either capitulating to Russia and being genocided, or else fighting with the little they have. That forces war of attrition. Ukraine has tried to break out of a war of attrition with maneuver warfare (Kursk) and with long-range strikes but the US withholds critical support to stop Ukraine from fundamentally changing the nature of the conflict.
Biden-Sullivan force Ukraine to follow their own preferred slow attritional strategy. This strategy is enormously costly and cruel but preferable to capitulation.
Yeah, clearly not doing a good job here. What I am saying is that this war of attrition is a consequence of Russia's setbacks in 2022. Putin set out to grind Ukraine down. Ukraine set out to return the favor, simply because there is no other way to fight this war. Neither side can crush the other on the battlefield regardless of the amount of equipment provided. Mines, drones, fires, and trenches made sure of that. And the support of Ukraine's friends has made sure Ukraine is not losing.
Criticising the US, NATO, and everyone else for not supporting Ukraine more misses the point. There was no decision to impose this style of war. It was inevitable. I fail to understand how an understrength Ukrainian army could just burst through Russian lines and achieve victory. Geography is a huge factor. Ukraine is big, Russia is even bigger. Too many people wanted an impossible breakthrough last year. They then seemed to imagine this Kursk incursion was something greater than a clearly successful ploy to draw Russian forces from the Donbas. Instead, Ukraine is wisely trading land for casualties. It's working. There's no need to look for deeper conspiracy here.
The problem is, neither USA nor EU has any (long term) strategy for the war in Ukraine. Let's say they have just short time operational plans . (And that's why also many conspiration theories flourish.)
I would imagine that from the Russian perspective, their supposedly unsustainable economy in the longer term only has to endure in the shorter term until Trump gets elected (Putin's hope). Then "The Donald" will make things right for Putin, thus making things wrong for Ukraine and for the West.
I think Putin may be dissapointed by the Donald should he be re-elected. He will have quite a long list to do, he will change his mind, he will demand something from Russia suddenly, he will have a fit of rage or whatever. This is not meant as any endorsement of Trump, rather pointing out the obvious, Trump cannot be trusted. Even if you bribe him. (But it probably increases your odds.) But putting their bets on that? I think it is naive, but then again you never know.
As I replied to your comment on my other post of today, I recognize that Trump has a rather short attention span. In my perception he is not so much focused on a particular issue of importance as it is on how that issue of importance makes him look good or bad in his own self's perception, and not so much about his rabid supporters about whom I have read that Trump denigrates in private. IOW, It's all about him. We are dealing with a narcissist and sociopath, a dangerous one at that.
. . . and a significant segment of the U.S. electorate. Our political system is dysfunctional. It has been working up to its current state prior to Trump's first foray in the White House. There used to be some desire between the two major parties to compromise on issues of mutual interest. Few would be totally happy with the outcome, but at least the parties could come to the negotiating table with everybody or nearly everybody leaving with something positive to take home to his/her constitutents. No longer. Gridlock is the usual modus operandi for at least the past 20+ years. This has to change, but will it?
Jompy's Thread on bridging equipment is fascinating (at least, I found it so). Some world class OSINT going there, especially as he acknowledges he doesn't have the full picture.
"Just one more person whose life is forever changed by a zombie nation mindlessly destroying at the direction of a madman."
The population of Gaza would agree with that sentiment wholeheartedly.
And we see that Russia is following Israel's example and targeting hospitals.
Some weeks ago they even copied the IDF line in claiming that the strike on a maternity hospital was because the Ukrainian command was holding a secret meeting there...
But then the Soviets and now Russia have never needed to have foreign inspiration for their excesses...
Problem with cannibalization is that it is generally the same parts that fail or wear out and most guns will only have one of each part (except for axles and wheels)
"A Starlink terminal was found on a Shahed drone. This could allow it to navigate and be used as a reconnaissance asset, as well as hitting moving targets."
But, Musk has said he has ruled out using Starlink on drones moving at high speeds.
I guess the Russians didn't get the memo.
They use Telegram, not X!
А високі швидкості це які? На машинах на високих швидкостях до 140 км/год старлінки працюють без проблем. Чи може шахед летіти з такою швидкістю? Думаю може...
На скільки я пам'ятаю, тоді йшлося про морські українські дрони. І Маск якось обмежив використання Старлінка за швидкістю.
As far as I remember, apart from the speed - also the trajectory and geo-location were a factor here.
E.g. a long straight movement trajectory of a sea drone traversing the Black Sea would inform Starlink of a prohibited behaviour.
Also, about Russian economy is worth to mention, that Saudi Arabia has announced increase of oil production (since Dec 1) i.e. supporting lower oil prices in the long term, see https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-arabia-abandon-100-crude-target-take-back-market-share-ft-reports-2024-09-26/
Nice!
Thank you. The Nielsen video is excellent.
It appears the implicit theory of victory for the West's decision makers is to make Ukraine endure until Russia's economy gives out from the unsustainable costs of the war. This could take 1-2.5 years more.
Then Russia will face economic (and social and possible political) collapse, and will need sanctions relief and bailouts from the West to prevent a coup and/or separatism and/or disintegration. Otherwise they really have no choice for a bailout but to sell Siberia to China.
The Russian elite will have to accept an West-aligned Ukraine (in EU and NATO, or at least with hard Western security guarantees) on most of the pre 2022 territory. This will be the price for an end of sanctions and bailouts. Russia's elite will accept the deal in order to safeguard their own power and to prevent economic collapse leading to social and political collapse/disintegration of Russia.
What do you think?
I'm not sure the 'West' is making Ukraine endure a war of attrition. It's a consequence of Ukraine defeating Russia's war of manoeuvre and they're fighting it as well as any nation could given the circumstances. Do you have any suggestion of what else Ukraine could do? Surrender? Not a chance Ukraine will ever do that, so they fight on. But I wish I was as optimistic as you that Russia will collapse completely. Putin keeps too tight a grip. Russia might collapse militarily but that brings immense risks too. What is obvious is that no one has a solution, least of all Putin.
Btw, it's a Russian disinfo talking point that Ukraine is the 'West's' puppet and has no say in how the war is fought. Let's not be useful idiots and repeat that. It's clearly untrue.
I was saying what I thought Biden-Sullivans plan really is. And yes, they are forcing Ukraine to endure a war of attrition by limiting weapons and capabilities. I don't endorse it because it is too callous and too cruel in Ukrainian lives. But Biden is underneath it all, not the kind man he pretends to be.
I don't think Russia will collapse completely. The hopeful scenario is that the danger of collapse (and threat to his own power and survival) is what will finally make Putin stop and negotiate a true peace that includes Western security guarantees to Ukraine..
Collapse or no collapse, the war will end when it threatens the stability of the regime - and yes we absolutely have a moral responsibility to try accelerate that. Also, collapse or no collapse, Russia will go through the hard times they need to start transforming
Luckily, neither you nor I are in the position of having to balance support for Ukraine against both Putin's paranoia and his wilful misinterpretation of NATO and the US's policies. We might think twice if we were.
Again, no one is forcing Ukraine to endure a war of attrition. It is what it is and that's because of Ukraine's heroic resistance. There is simply no other way to fight this war without the immense risk that Putin, an irrational actor, will go nuclear if he perceives he is under threat. I don't know about you, but I personally do not want Ukraine to become a nuclear proving ground. There is no easy solution to this problem. I do wish our governments had reacted more decisively in 2022/23 with expedited GBAD, IFVs deliveries, and munitions production. That would not have prevented a war of attrition but Ukraine would be in much better shape if we had.
I like most of what you say but I don't get your point that 'no one is forcing Ukraine to endure a war of attrition'.
We are not providing sufficient support to give Ukraine a decisive advantage. That puts Ukraine in the posiition of either capitulating to Russia and being genocided, or else fighting with the little they have. That forces war of attrition. Ukraine has tried to break out of a war of attrition with maneuver warfare (Kursk) and with long-range strikes but the US withholds critical support to stop Ukraine from fundamentally changing the nature of the conflict.
Biden-Sullivan force Ukraine to follow their own preferred slow attritional strategy. This strategy is enormously costly and cruel but preferable to capitulation.
Yeah, clearly not doing a good job here. What I am saying is that this war of attrition is a consequence of Russia's setbacks in 2022. Putin set out to grind Ukraine down. Ukraine set out to return the favor, simply because there is no other way to fight this war. Neither side can crush the other on the battlefield regardless of the amount of equipment provided. Mines, drones, fires, and trenches made sure of that. And the support of Ukraine's friends has made sure Ukraine is not losing.
Criticising the US, NATO, and everyone else for not supporting Ukraine more misses the point. There was no decision to impose this style of war. It was inevitable. I fail to understand how an understrength Ukrainian army could just burst through Russian lines and achieve victory. Geography is a huge factor. Ukraine is big, Russia is even bigger. Too many people wanted an impossible breakthrough last year. They then seemed to imagine this Kursk incursion was something greater than a clearly successful ploy to draw Russian forces from the Donbas. Instead, Ukraine is wisely trading land for casualties. It's working. There's no need to look for deeper conspiracy here.
The problem is, neither USA nor EU has any (long term) strategy for the war in Ukraine. Let's say they have just short time operational plans . (And that's why also many conspiration theories flourish.)
I would imagine that from the Russian perspective, their supposedly unsustainable economy in the longer term only has to endure in the shorter term until Trump gets elected (Putin's hope). Then "The Donald" will make things right for Putin, thus making things wrong for Ukraine and for the West.
I think Putin may be dissapointed by the Donald should he be re-elected. He will have quite a long list to do, he will change his mind, he will demand something from Russia suddenly, he will have a fit of rage or whatever. This is not meant as any endorsement of Trump, rather pointing out the obvious, Trump cannot be trusted. Even if you bribe him. (But it probably increases your odds.) But putting their bets on that? I think it is naive, but then again you never know.
As I replied to your comment on my other post of today, I recognize that Trump has a rather short attention span. In my perception he is not so much focused on a particular issue of importance as it is on how that issue of importance makes him look good or bad in his own self's perception, and not so much about his rabid supporters about whom I have read that Trump denigrates in private. IOW, It's all about him. We are dealing with a narcissist and sociopath, a dangerous one at that.
Only Russia and Israel want the guy to be US President again; ok, Hungary and North Korea too.
. . . and a significant segment of the U.S. electorate. Our political system is dysfunctional. It has been working up to its current state prior to Trump's first foray in the White House. There used to be some desire between the two major parties to compromise on issues of mutual interest. Few would be totally happy with the outcome, but at least the parties could come to the negotiating table with everybody or nearly everybody leaving with something positive to take home to his/her constitutents. No longer. Gridlock is the usual modus operandi for at least the past 20+ years. This has to change, but will it?
Jompy's Thread on bridging equipment is fascinating (at least, I found it so). Some world class OSINT going there, especially as he acknowledges he doesn't have the full picture.
https://threadreaderapp.com/user/Jonpy99
"Just one more person whose life is forever changed by a zombie nation mindlessly destroying at the direction of a madman."
The population of Gaza would agree with that sentiment wholeheartedly.
And we see that Russia is following Israel's example and targeting hospitals.
Some weeks ago they even copied the IDF line in claiming that the strike on a maternity hospital was because the Ukrainian command was holding a secret meeting there...
But then the Soviets and now Russia have never needed to have foreign inspiration for their excesses...
Thanks for another update Don I appreciate your hard work
Thanks again for the updates Don!
Thanks Don and Tom. All this targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure just has a strategic feel to it.
Problem with cannibalization is that it is generally the same parts that fail or wear out and most guns will only have one of each part (except for axles and wheels)