Don's Weekly, 30 October 2023: Part 3
(….continued from Part 2…)
ATACMS
Ukrainians are claiming that three S-400 launchers were destroyed by ATACMS. Instead of a predictable ballistic arc, they can change direction several times in mid-flight…
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1717647307829620990
Ukraine expects to receive ATACMS with a 300 km range by January. The variants could have either 300 bomblets or a unitary warhead…https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/26/media-ukraine-to-receive-new-missiles-with-300-km-range-early-next-year-possibly-newer-atacms-variants/#:~:text=The%20range%20suggests%20possible%20newer%20ATACMS%20variants.&text=Ukraine%20will%20receive%20new%20missiles,the%20Armed%20Forces%20of%20Ukraine.
Equipment
There has been a reduction in Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian cities and it is widely believed that the Russians are stockpiling missiles in order to fire them at higher rates at power plants during the winter months. While the Ukrainian power grid is functioning, there is still damage from last year’s attacks. 300 missiles hit energy facilities. According to this report from early September, 62-68% of the power plants and 80% of the transmission lines were repaired. Ukraine conducted a world-wide search for cables and transformers to keep their system operating, an issue complicated by the fact that it takes a year to build a transformer. Ukraine’s supply of spare transformers and other parts is unknown. Ukraine owes $1.38 billion to other energy companies and is owed $1.62 billion from services it provided its citizens. Non-military financial aid has been just as important as military aid. Ukraine has significantly increased its air defenses, but it does not have enough, and may never have enough, to protect its civilian and military assets…https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/how-will-ukraines-energy-sector-fare-upcoming-winter
The HAWK missile defense system was used for the first time against a drone, a year after there were plans to ship them to Ukraine. While an old system, it is still useful against drones, glide bombs and Soviet-era missiles. It has a maximum range of 25 km and there are a lot of HAWK missiles in storage. There are not enough launchers to defend all of Ukraine, but, like the Gepard with its 6 km range, it will be able to engage drones and cruise missiles and save some of the Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T ammo for the more advanced Russian missiles. It is also fairly mobile, making it more difficult for the Russians to track and take into account when planning their missile and glide bomb attacks…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1716344189380628703
Last August, it was confirmed that HARM anti-radar missiles were engineered to be launched from a MiG-29. Now, Sea Sparrow missiles can be launched from Buk air defense systems, which was running short of its own missiles. The Sea Sparrow can engage drones, cruise missiles, helicopters, low-flying aircraft. It has a range of 19 km, and the BUK systems, like the HAWK system, is mobile…
The EU promised a million artillery shells in a year. After six months, they’ve delivered 30% of the shells…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1717422256484188524
The US estimates that Ukraine has suffered 130k wounded and 70k dead while Russia lost 120k wounded and 280k dead. One issue for Ukraine is that they have insufficient first aid training. An example is placing a tourniquet on a wound that doesn’t need it and if it is on for 6-8 hours the limb might need to be amputated. The other is cheap tourniquets that don’t work and the soldiers bleed to death…https://www.ft.com/content/0f168ef9-d8a8-47c4-8883-017936cd0f2f
122mm artillery arrives at a way station in Siberia. The post claims they are from North Korea. In previous weeks there were posts about Russia withdrawing them from storage…
https://twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1718227195795997109
Diplomacy
Hungary is in no rush to ratify Sweden’s membership in NATO…https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-foreign-minister-no-change-to-hungarys-position-on-swedens-nato-accession/
A NATO liaison office was established in Kazakhstan, the second largest supplier of troops to the Russian counter-part to NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Recently, Kazakhstan agreed to support sanctions against Russia…
https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1716941085832847386
Armenia wants new partners and Russian troops out of their country…
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1717215933360451639
Orban says Hungary’s membership in the EU is comparable to the Soviet occupation…
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1717209749907751254
He also says Ukraine needs to beg him personally to remove his veto of EU military aid to Ukraine…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1717556768463561081
Slovakia’s new Prime Minister reiterates his promise to stop aid to Ukraine…
https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1717193604546916575
If Trump supported aid to Ukraine, there would be no discussion regarding the US commitment. Almost all Republicans have opposed Soviet/Russian aggression over the decades. Most feel the same way now, but if they are in a conservative district and oppose Trump’s wishes, they would likely lose their next party primary election. The Republicans that oppose Trump openly either lose their elections or choose not to run for re-election.
As a congressman, Mike Johnson voted against aid to Russia. That didn’t matter because there were plenty of Republicans that voted for it and Johnson could shore up his base in his conservative district. Since most Republicans and all Democrats want to provide aid to Ukraine, he will have to move the bill forward while placating the far right. It helps that Trump endorsed him for the job of Speaker. It also helps that Republican support in the Senate is even more vocal and less effected by Trump. Johnson may try to leverage aid to Ukraine for political gains elsewhere…https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4279587-speaker-johnson-us-cant-allow-vladimir-putin-to-prevail-in-ukraine/
Russian Morale
There’s a report than when a unit was sent into an assault near Kupiansk a couple weeks ago without support. 300 Russians were killed by artillery. 42 survivors refused to take part in future assaults without artillery and vehicular support and were taken to a “Concentration Rehabilitation Centre '' in Zaitseve, where they were tortured and starved. Back in June, a video was made when there were 230 men detained in a basement lit by one light bulb and one corner of the room was used as a toilet…
https://twitter.com/i/status/1671253659668344832
The Russian newspaper, Astra, said it receives almost daily reports from relatives of men that refuse to assault due to lack of ammunition, artillery, food and water. Most of the refusals have been in the Kupiansk and Avdiivka area, but prisoners with six month contracts are also being taken to these rehabilitation centers and forced into extending their contracts. There are 16 rehabilitation centers with Zaitseve being the largest.
Misc.
A Ukrainian Su-27 in an air defense mission…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1716850108187259229
At an unknown location, a Russian point of view from being on the edge of a DPICM strike…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1717299370314387483
The Finnish sniper team goes crazy after winning a European competition…
https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1717253000824344828
In Moscow, the roof of a power plane collapsed after a fire…
https://twitter.com/ManiacMagic1/status/1717538656112496752
Ukrainians under artillery fire…
https://twitter.com/Igor_from_Kyiv_/status/1717790207108399476
More Russian planes are flying with brakes than need to be replaced, but the Western sanctions prevent that from happening…
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1716983684203417755
With colder weather, rats are infesting Russian and Ukrainian trenches. This is how bad it is in a Russian trench…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1717715456507650531
I haven’t seen any cats in Russian trenches. I don’t know how widespread they are in Ukrainian trenches…
You write: «The EU promised a million artillery shells in a year. After six months, they’ve delivered 30% of the shells…» Feel free to call me a cynic but that is better than expected. If they have ramped up the production They might get to say thi/thirds of the goal. Not enough, but at least an attempt. But lets try to improve.
FT article says:
"Russia’s military is believed to have lost about 120,000 troops, with another 280,000 wounded, according to US estimates."
I think you have the numbers of Russians dead and wounded the wrong way round