Don's Weekly, 30 October 2023, Part 1

Oct 30, 2023

Good morning everybody!

As meanwhile usual, we’re starting this week with the next of highly-popular summaries of the last week by Don Hill.

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Generally, Ukraine continues to move east from Andriivka, Russia moves closer to Avdiivka’s supply line, and Ukraine continues to try and expand its bridgeheads in Kherson.

Western Luhansk

A Ukrainian T-80 makes a solo close assault on a Russian treeline. At 0:11 you can see a Russian soft-skin vehicle…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1717151162477011056

15 km east of Kupiansk, dead and wounded Russians are scattered across a field after an attack. 49.709236, 37.890505…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1717229779512942966/photo/2

12 km southeast of Kupiansk, a T-64 tank is hit by a Ukrainian drone and is probably only damaged (49.652006, 37.778828)…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1717948297191502025

East of Kupiansk, a small forward ammo depot is discovered, probably by watching activity around the bunker…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1718664945892561060

Bakhmut

The Russians launched an attack towards Klishchiivka that was hammered by artillery and eliminated before they could reach the objective. The Russians then tried to stop the Ukrainian drive on Odradivka by counter-attacking from the north and south, but heavy artillery fire forced them to withdraw with casualties.

The 28th Brigade is attacking Kurdiumivka from the north and west. If they clear the village it will provide another supply route over the canal and railroad and another axis of attack to both the east and south.

The 28th Brigade destroys Russian assets around Kurdiumivka…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1716409711585583142

A tense battle in a trench without a visible resolution…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1652616005875638275

A kilometer north of Klishchiivka, four Russian tanks are destroyed by artillery and one is finished off by a drone…

https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1718232174476812651

A mortar team from the 28th brigade talks to a reporter during a quiet period…

Old footage of the 3rd Brigade entering Andriivka. In all the debris, the Russians could be anywhere, so they are told to throw a grenade in any hole, just in case a Russian is inside. Andriivka has two streets about ten houses long. At one point a commander on the radio says they can advance but the two forces assaulting the two streets must stay parallel to each other. If one moves ahead of the other they could be shot from the side or the rear. At one point the Russians and Ukrainians exchange pleasantries, and the Ukrainian advance is slightly delayed by the call of nature. The village ends at the railroad tracks, which is pointed out at 9:48 in the video. A Ukrainian fighter keeps his promise…

The fight for Andriivka took 2.5 months. At first, every meter was contested and a single storm drain held up the advance. The offensive was paused to regroup. When it began again, they made slow progress and had to survive heavy artillery bombardments. Up to 70 kg of ammo, food and water had to be carried in on their backs. A tunnel under the railroad provided a secure supply route for the Russian but they blew it up, fearing that the Ukrainians would capture it and use it to advance east. After that, supply became difficult for the Russians and things started to move quicker. On the last day, 16 Ukrainians, eight on each street, cleared out the remaining 140 Russians…https://babel.ua/en/texts/99804-for-2-5-months-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-fought-for-two-small-streets-in-the-completely-destroyed-village-of-andriivka-near-bakhmut-babel-recreated-this-operation-it-is-a-ukrainian-counteroffensive-

Avdiivka

By Tuesday, 109 Russian vehicles have been identified through videos as destroyed in two small areas. Most analysts believe that the number of vehicles destroyed is closer to 200. Three Russian brigades of 2,000 men each were initially committed to the offensive and an estimated 4,000 of them have been killed. This does not mean Russia is short on replacements. Tom Cooper reports that they’ve already committed another Combined Arms Army to the battle.

There have been reports that some troops have refused to attack due to the heavy casualties and that troops were punished and returned to the front and some killed. There also have been reports of barrier troops shooting those that retreat, but none of this has stopped the assaults.

In the north, Russia was able to advance to the railroad tracks. To shorten the time they would be exposed advancing over an open field, they dug tunnels and emerged from them. If they are able to cross the tracks and take Stepnove then the supply route into Avdiivka will be threatened. Russian drones were able to direct artillery fire on Ukrainian bunkers on the Slagheap, forcing them to withdraw. Russian infantry is able to climb to the top of the Slagheap for short periods of time, but if they stay they are also subjected to artillery fire.

In the south, Ukraine was able to take two Russian positions in front of Spartak and Russian advances made little to no progress. Two Ukrainian brigades have been moved to this sector.

Russian artillery is more effective around Avdiivka than it is in the Robotyne sector. Even the incremental advances Russia is making wouldn’t have been possible without massive bombardments. They are also taking precautions against counter-battery fire by moving more or staying under cover. Electronic warfare is disrupting the signals of Ukrainian counter-battery radars and drones trying to locate Russian artillery. Only a few artillery pieces have been hit by Ukrainian counter-battery fire. The use of 80-year-old artillery pieces is an indication of how much attrition Russian artillery has suffered since the beginning of the war, but it still has a significant impact on the battlefield…https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/26/the-kremlin-sent-an-80-year-old-howitzer-to-ukraine-no-that-doesnt-mean-russias-artillery-corps-is-collapsing/?sh=52b7505e7c50

A close up of the Slagheap, how the Ukrainians tried to survive on it and how they were eventually forced to withdraw. The Russians stayed long enough to plant a flag and then left. The Slagheap isn’t occupied by either side…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1716793457170133393

Notice how the Soviet flag is above the Russian flag. Symbolism being what it is, Ukraine felt the flags were worth a drone…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1716898403152802115

The 110th brigade is bearing the brunt of many attacks. The defense comes at a cost…

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1717265962137735278

Russian infantry assembling for another assault…

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1716594848642265132

A Russian assault under heavy fire. 48.21906, 37.68787…

https://twitter.com/klinger66/status/1716896456802726195

A Russian posts pictures of his dead comrades in his trench. At 2:32, you hear DPICM explosions in the distance…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1716733469164802507

A mine destroys a Russian APC in front of a Ukrainian position…