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ParanoidNow's avatar

Thanks Tom but sorry the climate change is not urgent. Anyway,this war dwarves any efforts to limit our co2 emissions to the point that is much better to lift any of the carbon pricing and regulations that have contributed to massive sustained increase in energy, transport and relevant prices, and what is more has fuelled a similar increase in support of “populist” parties. With 10-15% larger economies, Europe will be in a much better position to provide support to Ukraine. Better to burn coal at home and win the war with Russia rather than import solar panels from China and burn ammo ever closer to Central Europe.

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ghanshyam joshi's avatar

Thanks for appearing on Indian media frequently. It's a breathe of fresh air since India is kind of pro Russia and pro Israel owing to many historical reasons (mostly urgent arms delivery during war).

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ghanshyam joshi's avatar

And one more request. Some Indian "professional war analyst" keep reminding about so called SU-57 super advanced aircraft. Is that aircraft used anytime during Ukraine war. Requesting you to educate Indian media about this stupid Idea.

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Martin Belderson's avatar

It's been used very little, with most reports coming from 2022-23.

(https://www.twz.com/su-57-felon-fighters-are-flying-ukraine-combat-missions-uk-intel)

One launched a KH-59/KH-69 at Kryvyi Rih in 2024

(https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/26/7453103/). That's it.

Jut over a year ago, a Su-57 was destroyed in a Ukrainian drone attack in Astrakhan. Two more were written off in crashes.

(https://www.twz.com/air/su-57-felon-struck-deep-inside-russia-ukraines-spy-agency-claims)

In October last year, it was reported that, hit by sanctions, production of Su-57s had halted.

(https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/russia_halts_production_of_su_57_stealth_fighters-12135.html)

If feel sorry for whichever nation has apparently bought Felons. I hope it's not India. Chinese attendees at the Zhuhai Airshow in November 2024 got close and posted detailed Su-57 photos. The images attracted much ridicule of its unstealth-like features and finishing.

(https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/chinese_attendees_ridicule_russian_su_57_at_zhuhai_airshow_and_share_first_detailed_close_up_photos-12419.html).

And it's been claimed, using Sukhoi's own data, that the Su-57's RCS is a thousand times greater than the F-35's and is more akin to a clean F-18. I'm no expert but it does not sound 'super-advanced'.

(https://theaviationgeekclub.com/did-you-know-the-su-57-felon-has-the-same-rcs-of-a-clean-f-a-18-super-hornet-and-1000-times-bigger-than-that-of-the-f-35/)

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ghanshyam joshi's avatar

Well I take Lockheed martin numbers with a pinch of salt but SU-57 is not worth it for sure.

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Martin Belderson's avatar

So are you saying Lockheed Martin's published RCS data is fake? Seems a bit of a stretch.

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ghanshyam joshi's avatar

F35 is never tested against peer enemies. I wish USA give some of them to Ukraine.

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Martin Belderson's avatar

All that can be said is that clearly the Su-35 is not a F-35 peer.

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

The Su-57 has never flown a single combat sortie. The type is non-operational (lacking functional sensor-fusion software): so much so, there is not a single operational VKS unit operating it. Technically, it's 'still undergoing testing'.

Read: all of the above is pure hogwash.

Even the use of that Okhotnik UCAV remained extremely limited (4-5 sorties in total).

Should there be any doubts, mind: if either would have flown a single sortie, the Russian media would've been full of related reports.

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JG's avatar

Very much appreciated your detailed update from you and team. Lots happening but yes, frustrating regards Ukrainian higher command 🙁. They can do better, they must!

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Sarcastosaurus's avatar

My pleasure.

And be sure: 'they' are never going to do any better.

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Lukas's avatar

Thanks for the updates each week, eagerly awaited (though the content is usually disheartening)

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Donald Hill's avatar

Keep the reports in context with the big picture. The frustration is that things could be better.

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quail's avatar

Good article. Good insight on the pipeline - didn't understand the cancer aspect until you mentioned it was an old gas pipeline. I had been thinking they were moving through sanitation or drainage piping. Old gas equipment is notorious for developing NORM scale (naturally occurring radioactive material) - as the norm flows through the pipe it decays and drops out as scale on the pipe metal walls. When that scale is disturbed some of the scale gets in the air as dust where it can be breathed. That scale includes polonium-210 - a notorious alpha emitter - which putin has used before.on litvenenko assassination. Karma I guess. Very likely all those troops will develop cancer and die unless they had respirators on the entire time and washed very thoroughly after their adventure.

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Donald Hill's avatar

I didn't know, thanks. I saw one image of a soldier with a mask on but I'm unaware of the details of the equipment. It's unlikely that he was washing after emerging from the pipe since most of them were under fire immediately.

https://x.com/Blackrussiantv/status/1898455965751464028/photo/1

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quail's avatar

Working in a refinery, gas plant or pipeline the process would normally be to chemically clean prior to opening. I wouldn't normally expect this to lead to fatalities/cancer so quick... But they likely took minimal preventative measures and you sure as hell don't go mucking through these things normally. If there was vibration of the piping knocking dust around it just magnifies the exposure. The washing is just as important as the respirators as if you get this crap in your mouth/stomach via eating later it's just as bad.

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Donald Hill's avatar

Well, it was a couple hundred people walking 12-15 km in a ~1.4 meter tall pipe, and there was artillery used as they exited the pipe.

https://x.com/banderafella/status/1898638036851695641

This is the first time I saw this Russian version of events. Notice the blue arm bands.

They talk about the conditions in the pipeline.

https://x.com/Blackrussiantv/status/1899227039829246227

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Марченко Сергей's avatar

Thanks Tom, thanks Don.

The media has already reported that 5 Su-34 aircraft were hit in Marinovka - 3 destroyed and 2 damaged!

https://expres.online/podrobitsi/rosiya-vtratila-pyat-vinishchuvachiv-su-34-okupanti-viznali-sviy-proval

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

I am tempted to complain. Not only do I have to be a regular reader, but also a careful reader to understand things. But I guess complaining would get me nothing but sarcasm. (Even if Tom is out of it now.) Apart from that, thank you for the update. I think you are right in the analysis. Our only hope is the zombie idiots of the East. Maybe they will something very stupid.

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Donald Hill's avatar

Don't forget the reports of the good units consistently performing well. I'm also interested in how the drone war will evolve now that Brovdi is in charge of the Ukrainian effort. There's also the Russian economy and 30,000 long-range Ukrainian drones that will be launched this year.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Ok, let’s have hope. Actually I think my outlook on the leaders on the western side is a little bit more positive than Tom’s. but I really like his criticism. It is very needed. (And I think it is very correct regarding the Ukrainian leaders.)

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Donald Hill's avatar

Our shared concern is that very basic decisions could improve defensive operations and reduce the destruction of Ukrainian lives and property. That's the frustrating part.

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Hans Torvatn's avatar

Indeed

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Nick Fotis's avatar

Still quite frustrated about the relative lack of improvement in the higher echelons of Ukrainian armed forces. I would like Zelensky to be more decisive in replacing failed generals, almost as fast as Lincoln was in sacking his generals until he found Grant

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James Touza's avatar

It took Lincoln tapping three generals in three years before Grant, I hope Zelenskyi moves on it soon.

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James Touza's avatar

Thanks Don & Tom for the weekly review. The Russian pows from the Sumy front look emaciated, like they haven't been eating much.

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James Coffey's avatar

I am posting here a comment related to your recent, excellent 58 minutes interview on the War & Politics 24 youtube channel of 01-July-2025.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IlkD1-E_94

I really appreciate your comments during this interview, although I find the bottom line almost endlessly depressing. Perhaps it is due to the lack of sarcasm on your part during this interview? **LOL** No, I don't think so. This must be most frustrating for you to observe the Russo-Ukraine War and on which to comment. How do you manage? I want to scream in anger and frustration (not your fault) when I read your reports, not that it will do any good for me to act so dysfunctionally.

I find myself in the position of the little girl in that old joke (OK an American "black" humor joke) wherein two trains are about to collide and the nobody can prevent it, so the punchine has the little girl saying that she just sits back and enjoys the spectacle. Well I just can't find humorous the spectacle of Ukraine self-destructing due to senior officials, military & civilian, failing in leadership due to self-centered egos and corruption. From the American perspective this sounds very Soviet to me. ****

****As just about everybody already knows, American leadership isn't in very good shape either. Egos, including toxic narcissism, selfish agendas, & corruption are getting in the way of good government. It looks as if the "Big Beautiful Bill" stands a likely chance at being turned into law, naturally favoring the rich--especially the oligarchs!--at the expense of the working poor. This bill, if it becomes law, may eventually bankrupt this country down the road at some as yet indeterminate time. Our greatest enemies are not Putin & Xi Jinping, unlike for Ukraine & for Taiwan. We are our own worst enemy. Oh BTW, the Democratic Party isn't in very good shape either.

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