Don's Weekly, 3 June 2024: Part 5

(…continued from Part 4…)

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Equipment

According to this analyst (back in February), the 2S19 is the only artillery that Russia is still producing. It delivered 60 in 2014, 54 in 2015 and had a contract to deliver 42 from 2016-19. A Ukrainian report from October 2023 says Russia only produces 30-50 barrels a year and the rest of the barrels come from storage. This video indicated that at current rates of use towed artillery in storage would be gone in by August, 2025 and self-propelled artillery completely removed by 2028. Variables that may alter those dates are how quickly the artillery is destroyed, how much of the equipment left is in salvageable condition and the rate of barrel wear of the artillery already in service.

Andrew Perpetua describes new drones that he’s observed. One is a Ukrainian bomber drone with software that indicates the drone’s position relative to the ground with a “+” sign on the screen, and indicates where the bomb will hit with an “O”, taking momentum into account. The other is a fixed wing drone with a very large warhead. Both sides are using them and Russia recently destroyed a 2S1 with one. He says fixed wing drones carry warheads 2-3 times the size of those carried by rotary drones for the same amount of power, and that the Russian version sprays chunks of a flammable substance similar to napalm…https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1796139643085128130

A Russia report says a Ukrainian vehicle was captured and used but the Russians. It had a GPS tracker on it and a deputy brigade commander was killed when the vehicle was attacked…https://x.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1795428736889741821

Sweden is sending two AWACS planes. Tom explains how their limitations will confine them to defensive duties…https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1795748519061696512

The objective is to send 500,000 shells from the Czech initiative by the end of the year…https://x.com/UkrReview/status/1795764816398749778

Sweden is sending 170+ APCs…https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1795755226542256368

Based on imagery that is 6-12 months old, most of the trucks and engineering equipment in storage is gone. Much of what was left was in poor condition. Russia produced 63k trucks in 2022 so the army will not be short of trucks. But seeing how the imagery was so old, there may be no engineering vehicles left to refurbish…https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1796235511440249309

This is reportedly the first turtle tank. Also, turtle tanks may be produced in factories in the future. If the desired characteristics are armor, protection from drones and the ability to transport troops, a theoretical factory produced turtle may look entirely different than a tank with a shell added on top…https://x.com/TOGAjano21/status/1796556199380279520

They keep producing decoys because they are effective…https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1795869593359065534

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Data

A well-organized military can have precise knowledge of its personnel and equipment losses, as well as its production rates. Ideally, they wouldn’t want their opponent to know this information but with so much information available it is hard not to have a general idea of the situation.

Andrew Perpetua says that in the last eight months of the Russian offensive, his team has recorded 4000 Russian vehicles and artillery pieces that have been destroyed or abandoned compared to 600 for Ukraine. He only tracks vehicles he’s seen on video or satellite imagery and says that they definitely overcounted in some instances and corrected those mistakes when they had access to high resolution imagery. That same imagery also showed they missed a lot more vehicles that were destroyed and not recorded by any organization, and these missed vehicles significantly outnumbered the (known) instances of overcounting. The Bilohorivka map I created last week included 20 such uncounted vehicles near the town and Andrew said there were a lot more vehicles in locations 5 km further east.

Open source information can be very precise in specific instances but as the scope of the data increases, so will the inaccuracies. In many ways, that doesn’t matter. The production rates, imagery, videos, government announcements and eyewitness accounts all tell a consistent story that indicate broad trends that paint a picture of events that generally withstand the test of time.

The pursuit of precision will always lead to better results, but the historical reality can be determined with a high degree of confidence even with a margin of error.