Don's Weekly, 29 January 2024: Part 3

(Continued from Part 2…)

Ukraine

Ukraine decided in November to build a series of concrete bunkers, trenches and engineering obstacles for $453 million dollars. 965 km of defensive lines are in several layers as far as 50 km behind the fighting in western Luhansk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka. There’s little to no fighting on Ukraine’s northern border with Russia and Belarus but it is being fortified, as well…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/21/ukraine-builds-its-own-surovikin-line-telegraph/#:~:text=The%20%E2%80%9CSurovikin%20Line%E2%80%9D%20refers%20to,2023%20on%20occupied%20Ukrainian%20territory.&text=Ukraine%20has%20created%20over%20600,the%20British%20newspaper%20The%20Telegraph.

In the last two months, Russia attacked Ukraine with 600 missiles and 1000 drones. In one night, Kharkiv suffered three waves of attacks and Kyiv was among other locations targeted. No less than 18 were killed and 130 were wounded. 44 missiles were launched and 22 were shot down, 20 of them around Kyiv, which is the best defended city in Ukraine. Most of the missiles were ballistic missiles and the rest were cruise missiles.

By their design, ballistic missiles attack from high altitudes and are accelerating while comign down: because of their speed, mass and downward trajectory, standard SAMs have little effect upon them, even when scoring a direct hit. Surface-to-air missiles using kinetic energy are more effective as they actually hit the ballistic missile and transfer their mass and speed to the target. However, the only kinetic missile Ukraine has is the PAC-3 fired by the Patriot system. Currently, the PSU has three such SAM-systems and their range is limited to about 45km.

In addition to the ballistic missiles Russia produces, North Korea provided 40 ballistic missiles and there are reports that Iran may provide some in the future…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-missile-strike-kyiv-says-ukraines-military-2024-01-23/#:~:text=KYIV%2C%20Jan%2023%20(Reuters),suffered%20three%20waves%20of%20attacks.

Video of some of that damage…https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2024/jan/23/ukraine-kyiv-and-kharkiv-targeted-in-wave-of-russian-missile-strikes-video

The undetonated warhead of a missile was discovered and removed…https://www.facebook.com/MNS.GOV.UA/posts/pfbid02czmMXPAaNJ4DCasLMNFRVvStvACKZLZcTDgcopwLwRgpreyiLapFyahA9XzZJSsl

Inside a bunker somewhere, a soldier needs heat, ventilation and must make sure the enemy cannot see his light…

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1748433142783082854

A couple in Kharkiv view their home…

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1749764522854760586

Diplomacy

Until it stopped providing aid to Ukraine, the US was responsible for about half the military aid. Without US aid, Ukraine’s logistical difficulties are going to increase every week. Part of the difficulties is the lack of military equipment. The most visible example is the shortage of artillery and mortar ammunition. Artillery remains the number one source of casualties for both sides. The current rate of production of all Ukraine’s allies, including the US, does not match what Ukraine is firing right now (and they are firing a LOT less than they were in September). The rate of production for ammo is projected to increase for almost two more years and at the end of those projected increases there will barely be enough for defensive operations. Offensive operations require a lot more ammo. In order to provide enough ammo until higher production rates are reached, extra ammo from stockpiles are needed. Those stockpiles come from US warehouses.

But it’s not just military aid that’s important. Without its economy, Ukraine would not be able to fight the war. The EU provides 77 billion euros in financial and humanitarian aid and the US provides 25 billion. All the other individual countries provide 20 billion. Without this money, small businesses and farmers fail, housing and electrical grid repairs can’t be funded, taxes can’t be paid, soldiers can’t be paid, and it all falls apart. The non-military aid is just as important as the military equipment…https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

For those that are frustrated and angry at the US for suddenly stopping its aid to Ukraine, that is understandable. It is, at least temporarily, and abandonment of its role as a leader in world security, a leadership role that is based on the size of its economy. If you want to understand how the US reached this point, you have to go back to 1980, when Reagan endorsed supply side economics, the notion that if you give the rich more money, they’ll create jobs more efficiently than any government could and everyone will be more prosperous. It was a stupid notion and 40 years of data shows that the rich just kept the money, the middle class shrank and the levels of poverty rose. Still, this remains the Republican policy, but they need power to keep it going. If you ask people to vote against their economic self-interest and enrich the rich, you won’t get many votes. So you create outrage issues where none existed, and people become more concerned with abortion, gun control, gay rights or any number of issues than they are about the formation of an economic oligarchy. And the culture wars are begun.

Heather Cox Richardson is a historian that comments on current US political events and often places them in context with moments from US history. She explains how issues that were settled back in the Civil War, such as federal supremacy over states, are once again surfacing. See if you can detect any connection between the oligarchy of today and the one that defended the institution of slavery. Since the House linked Ukrainian (and Israeli) aid to immigration, and since Trump does not want immigration resolved before the election, it does not appear that aid to Ukraine will be resumed before November unless it is separated from immigration. In the meantime, Ukrainians continue to die and the threat to Europe and the world rises…

Another interesting development can be read in this feature: Letters from an American

Today a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed strong economic growth of 3.3% in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2023, setting growth for the year at 3.1% (by comparison, in the first three years of Trump’s term, before the pandemic, growth was 2.5%). A year ago, economists projected that the U.S. would have a recession in 2023, and foreca…

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Ukraine to show support and to resolve grain shipment and trucking issues through talks instead of blockades…https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-poland-tusk-visit-65b802f45006832c0a067af8310ac558

Three 10mm holes were drilled into a German gas pipeline…https://www.politico.eu/article/investigation-suspected-sabotage-lng-pipeline-germany-gasunie/

Zelensky signed a decree that will allow foreign fighters in Ukraine and ethnic Ukrainians outside the country to become citizens without giving up other citizenships they possess…https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-foreign-fighters-citizenship-zelensky/32786522.html

Slovakia says Ukraine has to give up territory for peace. It says it will oppose sanctions on Russia, oppose Ukraine's entry into NATO, and supports Hungary as it "fights for its sovereignty". The Slovakian Culture Ministry suspended ties with Russia and Belarus after February, 2022, but they will resume cooperation now. And, lastly, Fico say Ukraine is not an independent country but under the total control of the US.https://www.politico.eu/article/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-ukraine-cede-territory-russia-moscow-invasion-nato-entry/#:~:text=Slovak%20Prime%20Minister%20Robert%20Fico,to%20NATO%20membership%20for

In 2007, an electronic underwater cable connected the Nordic and Baltic energy grids, providing greater security for both regions as supply and demand fluctuates due to weather and other events. A second cable began commercial operations in 2014 and a third one is planned for 2035. On Friday, the second cable was damaged…https://thegaze.media/news/at-the-bottom-of-the-baltic-sea-the-main-cable-between-estonia-and-finland-is-damaged-again-this-time-its-electrical#:~:text=At%20the%20bottom%20of%20the%20Baltic%20Sea%2C%20the%20main%20power,the%20state%2Downed%20company%20Elering.

Two telecommunication cables between Sweden, Finland and Estonia, plus a Russian fiber optic cable and a gas pipeline were all damaged when a Chinese ship drug its anchor until it broke off last October…https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-11-07/russia-says-telecoms-cable-damaged-last-month-just-before-nearby-baltic-gas-pipeline

REFORGER

Starting in 1969, NATO started holding exercises that imagined an invasion from eastern Europe and featured the shipping of American units from the US to Germany. Instead of shipping all the necessary heavy equipment, this was pre-positioned in Europe: thus, the USA planned to ship the personnel who would then take control of equipment in warehouses. These exercises were called the REturn of FORces to GERmany, or REFORGER. The last one was held in 1993, three years after the reunification of Germany and two years after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

I took part in the largest REFORGER exercise in 1988 (125k people) and also the one in 1990, both as a member of the 1st Brigade, 8th Infantry Division, stationed in Baumholder.

Since 1990, there have been exercises held in Iceland (about 400 men), the UK (up to 13,000 men), the Netherlands (about 70 aircraft and a thousand personnel), a lot of exercises in Norway (up to 20,000 men), and Baltic naval exercises. A year after Georgia was invaded, 1,100 personnel held an exercise there in 2009. That same year, 50 aircraft and 900 ground troops took part in an exercise in Sweden. When Russia invaded Ukraine the first time in 2014, NATO exercises started being held in Poland and the Baltic countries.

This year, NATO will hold a series of exercises between now and May, called Steadfast Defender 2024. They are going to involve 90,000 troops, 50 ships, 80 aircraft and 1,100 combat vehicles. All 31 NATO nations will take part, as will Sweden, who is waiting on the approvals from Hungary and Turkey to be ratified in their parliaments. In February, the NATO response force will be deployed in Poland and its readiness will be evaluated. Also, submarine and anti-submarine exercises will be hosted by Italy. In April-May, submarines, surface ships and patrol aircraft will participate in exercises held off Norway. And in June, air and missile defenses will conduct exercises in Romania and Bulgaria to test and validate interoperability between the forces of 18 nations…https://shape.nato.int/nato-exercises

Sweden and NATO

Since Sweden changed its constitution to allow for tougher anti-terrorism laws, and after Turkey tried to buy F-16 in return for approving Sweden’s bid, Turkey’s parliament approved Sweden’s membership to NATO. This leaves only Hungary opposing it. Last summer, Hungary’s foreign minister said they would not be the last country to approve Sweden’s entry to NATO and he repeated that promise in December. Orban invited Sweden’s prime minister to Hungary to “negotiate” Sweden’s accession, suggesting that Hungary may seek concessions in exchange for its support. Sweden’s foreign minister said he did not see any reason to negotiate…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/23/world/europe/turkey-sweden-nato.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20240124&instance_id=113315&nl=the-morning&regi_id=139486627&segment_id=156155&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422

(…to be continued…)