1) The Russians lost about 350 000 in 2 years of the war.
2) The Ukrainian army needs to mobilize 500 000 more to be able fight till the end of 2024 (3 years of the war).
All of us know that the Russian losses are an order of magnitude lower than the Ukrainian losses. This is why the Ukrainian losses are kept secret. And all of us have heard back in 2022 that Russia already lost the war.
Regarding the mobilization, the Russians still get some volunteer recruits. This is not the case with Ukraine - all the volunteers already signed in the first months of the war. Now they mobilize whoever they can catch in the streets and right now there is a project for a law to suspend bank accounts for whatever man does not come to a military office in a month after the law will have been passed.
Interesting observations by someone on the ground. I doubt Ukrainian losses are higher than Russian ones but glad if you can prove me wrong.
1.) It does seem Russians were able to mobilize at a higher rate than Ukraine over the past year to achieve a stalemate. Russia has one of the largest prison/jail populations so Prigozhin's move to mobilize conscripts plaid a huge role in keeping this rate up. But just by looking at manned equipment losses, Russia's are quite larger, unless Russian men survived most of those without serious injuries or death which would be extremely odd and unlikely. Those are some of the indicators of higher casualty rates but also video evidence considering the battlefield is now transparent with multiple drones.
2.) Also factor in the Russian meat assualts, I've watched quite a few interviews and videos of the Bakhmut, Avdiivka areas where Ukrainian soldiers mentioned they had to gun down waves of men who were simply there to spot their positions. I dont think these stories were made up.
3.) Recent development of Russians catching up to the use of commercial off the shelf drones must have increased Ukrainian casualties. Again a failure of the West not to support Ukrainian drone production.
What I think actually happened(which you can correct me on) is Ukraine lost a large part of the initial 200k army as well through injuries and deaths including of junior officers up until the most recent failed summer counter offensive. Which is why they are now trying to get an additional 500k on top of the extra mobilized over the past year. Another thing is Soviet doctrine officers in the ZSU may have gotten a lot of Ukrainians killed or had less regard for losses. But Zaluzhnyi and others have consistently spoken about fighting differently to preserve manpower. The Russians as you said still have a lot of volunteers because they lost their initial army then got convicts all while taking in volunteers and forcefully enlisting.
Its sad to know that the ZSU is having to catch people on the street as you've said, these wont make good soldiers if they join without the will to fight. What do you think Ukraine needs to do?
I don't really buy the claims of Russian "meat assaults". For all the drone footage available in this war I've yet to see any video evidence, and the stuff that's passed off as meat assaults just look like regular assaults. The reason for that lack of evidence is because its not happening as it would be a stupid and futile thing to attempt in 21st century warfare. Does Russia use convicts to scout ahead to determine Ukrainian positions? Seems quite likely, but that's not a meat assault, and Ukraine has to do the same thing, albeit with non-convict soldiers.
I think it's quite common for a country at war to describe the loss of ground in a manner that absolves them while also making their opponent look incompetent or stupid even in victory. Portraying your enemy as a mindless horde who can only defeat you via sheer mass is a pretty common propaganda tactic, but that's all it is. I don't think the Ukrainian top brass believe Russia is using meat assaults. They've enough sense to respect their opponent as capable of far more than employing ineffective mindless meat waves. Because he is.
This leads me to a broader issue: I think that this dismissive attitude towards Russia that is promulgated in the media does not help Ukraine, but in fact helps Russia. So much ink has been spilled describing Russia's military as incompetent, its troops on the verge of revolt, running out of ammunition, etc, etc. Lies, lies, and hopeful lies. None of these fabrications benefited Ukraine. All they did was tranquilize people and engender in the public an unhelpful self-assurance. Understanding your opponent--understanding reality--is essential if you want to beat him. Treat Russia as a joke and Russia will have the last laugh.
All Ukrainian soldiers I know confirm the same thing: Russians keep attacking with lots of men, sometimes sending only men, without vehicles. We see piles of new Russian corpses appearing every week. So yes, meat assaults are real. It's been 2 years of war and people at the front are still surprised by how Russians do not value lives of their soldiers.
If such thing happened on Ukrainian side it would be all over the news. Officers responsible would be sacked.
That's the main strength of the Russian state. They can force their people to do anything they want.
You should listen to interviews of Ukrainian soldiers at the front or actual analysts that have interviewed Ukrainian soldiers at the front, dont take it as my view. And dont take this personally as well but I think you have a Western mindset towards Russia or such militaries or think they operate like Western armies. Just because meat assualts would be ineffective to a Western military doesnt mean they would be ineffective for Russia or China, at least in the short term.
The Russian siloviki really dont give a damn about their citizens much less soldiers nor are they accountable to them. Russian military is not a joke though nor did I call it one but it uses its soldiers in some of the most inhumane and wasteful ways, which was my argument after listening and reading from Ukrainians at the front. Not just in terms of meat assualts but even armoured assualts of which there is ample evidence show how they operate with little regard for the lives of their men.
As you said, understanding your opponent is essential if you want to beat him. Dont brush off something just because its seemingly irrational to a Western perspective and think its not happening. The Russians are getting some serious gains in the war but in documented inhumane ways. The question is how long can they keep on supplying humans to fight in such a way. I agree though, both sides have reasons to propagate propaganda but there's been a lot of evidence of Russian losses both in terms of equipment and people.
A month ago a Ukrainian MP told that Zaluzhny requests a mobilization of 20 000 per month without providing any plans for improvement. This matches the 500 000 for 3 years.
They say 80% of losses come from the artillery shelling. Russians have prevalence in guns while Ukraine is out of ammo and the Western howitzers are heavily worn out thus imprecise.
As you should have noticed, Ukraine uses little manned equipment, which means you won't see hundreds of destroyed Ukrainian tanks - they just don't exist. Thus Ukraine has to compensate for the disparity in armor with its infantry. I don't think anybody would pay for armor if infantry were more efficient or better protected.
But do "all of us know that the Russian losses are an order of magnitude lower than the Ukrainian losses?" I wish everyone would be more suspicious of the numbers released by both the Ukrainians and the Russians as it's typical for countries at war to lie about these things, but the picture that has been painted in the West, and which seems to be broadly accepted, is that Russia is suffering massive catastrophic losses, not Ukraine. I find this odd given the vast discrepancies between the two countries when it comes to artillery power and the number of weapon systems/drones/etc in general. After all, this is a conflict defined mostly by artillery, an area in which Russia has always maintained a significant advantage, so I'd assume the casualty figures would be reflected in this. Is that your line of thinking too, or do you have some other reasoning?
There's a subtle contradiction worth pointing out in your reasoning. Without writing too much, let me first qualify my statement by saying, Russia suffering catastrophic losses doesn't mean they're out of the fight, they are still extremely dangerous. The two are not mutually exclusive.
Now here's the contradiction I need clarified; how did Russia which had over 2000 tanks, over 1300 artillery systems in active service, 900 combat aircraft fail to even capture Kharkiv right there at the border?? After replacing this equipment they have failed to make any serious territorial gains as well or capture Donbas right there at the frozen lines. Or move past Vulhedar right there in the South? Or move past Bakhmut? Do they magically spawn out of harms way when their vehicles are destroyed? Do the Russian soldiers respawn back to the frozen lines when they're killed? Or did they not lose this many armored vehicles, artillery systems and AD systems? Maybe the Ukrainians used magic to make way for Storm Shadows to pass to Crimea, since Russia didn't lose AD systems. Or the AD systems simply dont work? It doesnt add up.
Maybe 2000+ of armored vehicles destroyed and hundreds of artillery systems and AD systems is a simple loss for Russia. As well as recruiting 20,000 people per month without making any serious territorial gains for close to a year. I find it hard to believe they havent suffered catastrophic losses. But this doesnt mean they are any less dangerous, just that they have a higher propensity to take losses than had been planned, which is what Zaluzhnyi said as well.
Oh Tom and Donald. Thank you so veeery much for your assessment. I do feel much better after reading you. --- Be sure to get safely through the twelve days and nights between December 25th and January 6th when the doors are open to the Other World . These are the Rauhnächte, the wild nights, the wild hunting parties led by Wotan.
The convicts are used in open ground by sending them forward to see where the defenders shoot from. Then the Russian artillery and drones attack the Ukrainian gunners. Rinse and repeat.
The picture by your link likely shows an industrial zone which is well protected from the Russian artillery fire. It probably makes little sense to send forward the convicts as industrial zones require quite different kind of warfare.
According to ISW the Russians are successfully assaulting and taking new ground all over the front line except in the Staromayorske region https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-27-2023
They realized they can simply sacrifice lives for land. How sustainable is this? I dont think any country has infinite human resource.
Well, let's see what the Ukrainian side claims:
1) The Russians lost about 350 000 in 2 years of the war.
2) The Ukrainian army needs to mobilize 500 000 more to be able fight till the end of 2024 (3 years of the war).
All of us know that the Russian losses are an order of magnitude lower than the Ukrainian losses. This is why the Ukrainian losses are kept secret. And all of us have heard back in 2022 that Russia already lost the war.
Regarding the mobilization, the Russians still get some volunteer recruits. This is not the case with Ukraine - all the volunteers already signed in the first months of the war. Now they mobilize whoever they can catch in the streets and right now there is a project for a law to suspend bank accounts for whatever man does not come to a military office in a month after the law will have been passed.
Interesting observations by someone on the ground. I doubt Ukrainian losses are higher than Russian ones but glad if you can prove me wrong.
1.) It does seem Russians were able to mobilize at a higher rate than Ukraine over the past year to achieve a stalemate. Russia has one of the largest prison/jail populations so Prigozhin's move to mobilize conscripts plaid a huge role in keeping this rate up. But just by looking at manned equipment losses, Russia's are quite larger, unless Russian men survived most of those without serious injuries or death which would be extremely odd and unlikely. Those are some of the indicators of higher casualty rates but also video evidence considering the battlefield is now transparent with multiple drones.
2.) Also factor in the Russian meat assualts, I've watched quite a few interviews and videos of the Bakhmut, Avdiivka areas where Ukrainian soldiers mentioned they had to gun down waves of men who were simply there to spot their positions. I dont think these stories were made up.
3.) Recent development of Russians catching up to the use of commercial off the shelf drones must have increased Ukrainian casualties. Again a failure of the West not to support Ukrainian drone production.
What I think actually happened(which you can correct me on) is Ukraine lost a large part of the initial 200k army as well through injuries and deaths including of junior officers up until the most recent failed summer counter offensive. Which is why they are now trying to get an additional 500k on top of the extra mobilized over the past year. Another thing is Soviet doctrine officers in the ZSU may have gotten a lot of Ukrainians killed or had less regard for losses. But Zaluzhnyi and others have consistently spoken about fighting differently to preserve manpower. The Russians as you said still have a lot of volunteers because they lost their initial army then got convicts all while taking in volunteers and forcefully enlisting.
Its sad to know that the ZSU is having to catch people on the street as you've said, these wont make good soldiers if they join without the will to fight. What do you think Ukraine needs to do?
I don't really buy the claims of Russian "meat assaults". For all the drone footage available in this war I've yet to see any video evidence, and the stuff that's passed off as meat assaults just look like regular assaults. The reason for that lack of evidence is because its not happening as it would be a stupid and futile thing to attempt in 21st century warfare. Does Russia use convicts to scout ahead to determine Ukrainian positions? Seems quite likely, but that's not a meat assault, and Ukraine has to do the same thing, albeit with non-convict soldiers.
I think it's quite common for a country at war to describe the loss of ground in a manner that absolves them while also making their opponent look incompetent or stupid even in victory. Portraying your enemy as a mindless horde who can only defeat you via sheer mass is a pretty common propaganda tactic, but that's all it is. I don't think the Ukrainian top brass believe Russia is using meat assaults. They've enough sense to respect their opponent as capable of far more than employing ineffective mindless meat waves. Because he is.
This leads me to a broader issue: I think that this dismissive attitude towards Russia that is promulgated in the media does not help Ukraine, but in fact helps Russia. So much ink has been spilled describing Russia's military as incompetent, its troops on the verge of revolt, running out of ammunition, etc, etc. Lies, lies, and hopeful lies. None of these fabrications benefited Ukraine. All they did was tranquilize people and engender in the public an unhelpful self-assurance. Understanding your opponent--understanding reality--is essential if you want to beat him. Treat Russia as a joke and Russia will have the last laugh.
All Ukrainian soldiers I know confirm the same thing: Russians keep attacking with lots of men, sometimes sending only men, without vehicles. We see piles of new Russian corpses appearing every week. So yes, meat assaults are real. It's been 2 years of war and people at the front are still surprised by how Russians do not value lives of their soldiers.
If such thing happened on Ukrainian side it would be all over the news. Officers responsible would be sacked.
That's the main strength of the Russian state. They can force their people to do anything they want.
Exactly, this is what I have also seen, read and heard in interviews from people at the front. Doesnt make them any less dangerous.
You should listen to interviews of Ukrainian soldiers at the front or actual analysts that have interviewed Ukrainian soldiers at the front, dont take it as my view. And dont take this personally as well but I think you have a Western mindset towards Russia or such militaries or think they operate like Western armies. Just because meat assualts would be ineffective to a Western military doesnt mean they would be ineffective for Russia or China, at least in the short term.
The Russian siloviki really dont give a damn about their citizens much less soldiers nor are they accountable to them. Russian military is not a joke though nor did I call it one but it uses its soldiers in some of the most inhumane and wasteful ways, which was my argument after listening and reading from Ukrainians at the front. Not just in terms of meat assualts but even armoured assualts of which there is ample evidence show how they operate with little regard for the lives of their men.
As you said, understanding your opponent is essential if you want to beat him. Dont brush off something just because its seemingly irrational to a Western perspective and think its not happening. The Russians are getting some serious gains in the war but in documented inhumane ways. The question is how long can they keep on supplying humans to fight in such a way. I agree though, both sides have reasons to propagate propaganda but there's been a lot of evidence of Russian losses both in terms of equipment and people.
A month ago a Ukrainian MP told that Zaluzhny requests a mobilization of 20 000 per month without providing any plans for improvement. This matches the 500 000 for 3 years.
If you read interviews of Ukrainian soldiers, you should have noticed them mentioning losses like “My phone book is a little graveyard” here https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/26/russia-ukraine-war-occupation-kherson-special-forces/1b366dc6-a3af-11ee-aacb-6f873a65763e_story.html
They say 80% of losses come from the artillery shelling. Russians have prevalence in guns while Ukraine is out of ammo and the Western howitzers are heavily worn out thus imprecise.
As you should have noticed, Ukraine uses little manned equipment, which means you won't see hundreds of destroyed Ukrainian tanks - they just don't exist. Thus Ukraine has to compensate for the disparity in armor with its infantry. I don't think anybody would pay for armor if infantry were more efficient or better protected.
Interesting observations.
But do "all of us know that the Russian losses are an order of magnitude lower than the Ukrainian losses?" I wish everyone would be more suspicious of the numbers released by both the Ukrainians and the Russians as it's typical for countries at war to lie about these things, but the picture that has been painted in the West, and which seems to be broadly accepted, is that Russia is suffering massive catastrophic losses, not Ukraine. I find this odd given the vast discrepancies between the two countries when it comes to artillery power and the number of weapon systems/drones/etc in general. After all, this is a conflict defined mostly by artillery, an area in which Russia has always maintained a significant advantage, so I'd assume the casualty figures would be reflected in this. Is that your line of thinking too, or do you have some other reasoning?
There's a subtle contradiction worth pointing out in your reasoning. Without writing too much, let me first qualify my statement by saying, Russia suffering catastrophic losses doesn't mean they're out of the fight, they are still extremely dangerous. The two are not mutually exclusive.
Now here's the contradiction I need clarified; how did Russia which had over 2000 tanks, over 1300 artillery systems in active service, 900 combat aircraft fail to even capture Kharkiv right there at the border?? After replacing this equipment they have failed to make any serious territorial gains as well or capture Donbas right there at the frozen lines. Or move past Vulhedar right there in the South? Or move past Bakhmut? Do they magically spawn out of harms way when their vehicles are destroyed? Do the Russian soldiers respawn back to the frozen lines when they're killed? Or did they not lose this many armored vehicles, artillery systems and AD systems? Maybe the Ukrainians used magic to make way for Storm Shadows to pass to Crimea, since Russia didn't lose AD systems. Or the AD systems simply dont work? It doesnt add up.
Maybe 2000+ of armored vehicles destroyed and hundreds of artillery systems and AD systems is a simple loss for Russia. As well as recruiting 20,000 people per month without making any serious territorial gains for close to a year. I find it hard to believe they havent suffered catastrophic losses. But this doesnt mean they are any less dangerous, just that they have a higher propensity to take losses than had been planned, which is what Zaluzhnyi said as well.
Oh Tom and Donald. Thank you so veeery much for your assessment. I do feel much better after reading you. --- Be sure to get safely through the twelve days and nights between December 25th and January 6th when the doors are open to the Other World . These are the Rauhnächte, the wild nights, the wild hunting parties led by Wotan.
Fortunately, I have enough laundry to get through these perilous times.
Bakhmut section copypasted twise.
Thx. Corrected.
Dmitri reports VSFR is short of Storm-Z (convict) units https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1738296247256051731 May it be they have not enough convicts willing to die or they stopped hiring them?
The convicts are used in open ground by sending them forward to see where the defenders shoot from. Then the Russian artillery and drones attack the Ukrainian gunners. Rinse and repeat.
The picture by your link likely shows an industrial zone which is well protected from the Russian artillery fire. It probably makes little sense to send forward the convicts as industrial zones require quite different kind of warfare.
Thanks for the updates.
Thank you, Tom and Don! And yes, thank you, ZSU!