Don's Weekly, 27 May 2024: Part 1

Hello everybody!

I’m lil’ bit late than usually, this Monday: was a very busy weekend and I’m still trying to catch with all the developments (so also in regards of our latest collections; there will be a separate update in this regards, later this week).

Therefore, let me not waste your time, but get straight to Don’s review for the last week.

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How Diplomacy Impacts Ukraine’s Ability to Fight

The most efficient way for Russia to distribute ammo, fuel and other supplies is to send them by train and off load them into a large depot fairly close to the front. From there, trucks can deliver them to the front line. When HIMARS arrived in the summer of 2022, the 80 km range of the M31 rockets destroyed quite a few of these large depots, even bridges and trains. Twenty command posts and depots were destroyed in a week. Russia created smaller depots further away. Russia used to mass their artillery in a traditional battery until HIMARS started to destroy the concentrated targets, such as these five SP 152 mm guns. The arrival of HIMARS made the Tochka-U more effective.

Russia then dispersed their artillery, made their supply depots smaller and generally, but not always, dispersed their troops. Ukraine is still using HIMARS to destroy supply trucks, artillery, air defenses, EW systems, headquarters and troop concentrations over 70 km away. Ukraine’s longer ranged weapons reduce Russia’s ability to fight in every sector where they could use their range, which is about three times longer than standard artillery. Now that the US has supplied ATACMS missiles with 165 and 300 km ranges, Ukraine has been able to attack targets even further away, such as Dzhankoy air base and Belbek air base near Sevastopol.

One place where they are not being used is in the Kharkiv sector. Russia hasn’t penetrated very far in this region, but they still have the artillery, supplies, EW systems and all the other assets that are needed to support their advance towards Kharkiv. The problem is that they are located in Russia, and Ukraine isn’t allowed to use US weapons in Russia because the US fears it might escalate the conflict.

Just the 80 km range of the M31 rocket would degrade Russian capabilities. The 165 and 300 km ranges of ATACMS would have an even greater impact. A few airfields are in range, as well. In the map, I centered the range circles of the HIMARS/MLRS on Kharkiv. I centered the Bohdana range circle on Vesele, which is where they are operating many of their artillery systems.

Two weeks ago, US Secretary of State Blinken said the US had "not encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it’s going to conduct this war."…https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-us-playing-with-fire-indirect-war-with-moscow-2024-05-17/

On Wednesday the last week, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson said that the United States needs “to allow Ukraine to prosecute the war in the way they see fit,” - when it comes to how Ukraine uses U.S.-provided weapons in its war against Russia. On Monday, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, asking that Ukraine be allowed to use American weapons on strategic targets in Russian territory.

Means: Blinken is not entirely sincere in this regards but, the momentum is building for a policy reversal…https://www.voanews.com/a/us-house-speaker-to-voa-ukraine-should-be-able-to-fight-war-as-they-see-fit-/7622780.html

The NATO Secretary General supports Ukrainian strikes in Russia…https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1794270908288238003

(….to be continued…)