Don's Weekly, 25 November 2024: Part 1

by Donald Hill

Hello everybody!

Sorry for my silence of the last few days: as already since nearly a decade, at this time of the year I’m very busy with my usual work as editor and illustrator at Helion & Co. For example, and between others, with this and the Volume 2 of this book, which are now ‘just days/weeks’ from being released, respectively; plus a few other projects planned to follow in early 2025 (like this one). After all, the research never stops, there is always a ‘zillion’ of updates and corrections kindly provided by many of you about different battles of this war, and I must admit: having a ‘soft spot’ for those hunkering in trenches of this conflict and shooting back at every opportunity, I’m always keen to have their stories recorded as well.

Rest assured, Don has meanwhile prepared his review of the last week - and he’s always highly reliable and on time. Thus, lets go over to that story.

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Kursk

Amid ever bigger announcements from Moscow - primarily focusing on ‘encirclement’ and ‘destruction’ of ‘2,000 Ukrainian militants’, either in the Olgovka forest, or in the ‘Sudzha salient’ (depends on the time of the day, the weather, or efforts by different of local commanders to make Pudding happy), at least it is meanwhile sure that the Russian counteroffensive in this area is a veritable disaster. Yes, ‘even’ by the Russian metric. Arguably, the ZSU had lost a few hundred meters here or there, but in grand total, its ‘salient’ is holding. Primary reasons are such like that the ‘Russian best’ - Spetsnaz and VDV - are simply not good enough to outmatch the Ukrainian ‘best’, and that the FSB generals and the Russian armed forces meanwhile have next to no idea about how to fight a manoeuvre battle. As a consequence, multiple of VDV regiments were trounced while assaulting, the last 7-10 days. But hey: never mind; with few notable exceptions, the mass of Russians is perfectly happy with ever more ridiculous claims of the Keystone Cops in Moscow.

The bridge across the Seym river at Karyzh was bombed again.

Soldiers from the 36th Marine Brigade and 17th Tank Brigade killed 3 and captured 8 from the 51st VDV Regiment during an assault near Darino. A Ukrainian Marine says that 4000 Russians with 100 armored vehicles, all of them Marines or VDV, are now attacking Darino. They’ve been able to destroy four-vehicle assaults with ATGM’s and drones. The weight of numbers - one should keep in mind that the glorious Russian armed forces are nowadays largely copy-pasting the Wagner tactics of ‘zerg rush’ assaults from Bakhmut of about a year ago - allow Russia to reach, hold onto and solidify their hold on the town and capture some Ukrainian soldiers. That same soldier believes that the two Russian brigades and two Russian divisions will soon launch a massive and successful assault from Darino.

Until it’s so far, the ZSU is regularly launching local counterattacks. For example, the 425th Assault Battalion attacked a Russian position with any vehicle that is available. The 17th Tank Brigade was also working with the 425th in the Novoivanovka area.

Ukrainians use the Silvaka VM-8 MLRS to fire 80 mm thermobaric rockets west of Sheptukhovka.

Drones stop a Russian assault 7 km east of Plyokhovo. The video is graphic. On the same road a Russian quad bike was hit. Drones of the 7th Separate Battalion (attached to the 129th Brigade) discovered a Russian platoon at night and continued to attack them during the day.

20 km from the fighting in Kursk, a Russian village was targeted by Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles while a reconnaissance drone observed the attack. Here is a view from the ground. Ten missiles were expended on what was reported to be a bunker, killing officers and other personnel.

Another pair of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles reportedly flying somewhere over Kursk.

Another Ukrainian missile attack was reported in Kursk.

***

While the deputy battalion commander in the 95th Brigade is 26 years old the average age of the men in his unit is 40. He discussed his brigade’s move into Kursk and the current situation.

The brigade has been moved from one hotspot to another throughout the war. They were fighting in Toretsk, knowing they would be committed to Kursk, and had only three days to both move and refit. They encircled and captured Malaya Loknya then seized Pogrebki and are fighting in that area now, fighting convicts, VDV and naval infantry. Ukraine’s attacks stopped last September when the Russians had enough troops and dug in.

Starlinks didn’t work at first, they had to rely on radios. In time, the government-issued Starlinks were working but the one provided by volunteers didn’t work as often.

The deputy commander says that the front line in their sector is stable. In a different interview with a brigade commander in the 95th, he said that they tried to ambush an entire Russian column back in 2022, but a defender unfamiliar with the plan hit the lead vehicle in the column and they had to work harder to destroy them. Given the statement that their front line is stable, and given their history of large unit ambushes, it’s another indication that the penetration Russia had at Pogrebki a couple weeks ago was part of their defensive plan as the penetrating units were wiped out.

***

Northern Kharkiv

Not much to report, actually: rain, snow and mud have slowed down operations by both sides.

In the Hlyboke sector, the Russians bombard Ukrainian positions 4 km from the front line with MLRS. Being cheaper and easier to manufacture, together with drones, multiple rocket launchers are gradually replacing the classic artillery in the VSRF.

***

Western Luhansk

Following the destruction of two of their assault groups that attempted entering Kupyansk, back on 13-14 November, most of this sector was static this week, there is a report that the Russians crossed the Oskil river with boats north of Dvorichna.

Thje Russians were consolidating their hold on Kolisnykiva under fire.

They also moved into Kopanky but Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade pushed them out.

The Russians assaulted down a road in between Yampolivka and Torske. One vehicle and its crew escaped. The other vehicles were knocked out and the infantry hunted down by drones. The video isn’t particularly graphic but it does show one soldier with blood on his face.

***

Siversk

A Russian drone supposedly found a Ukrainian artillery piece in the town of Siversk and an artillery bombardment followed. An airstrike was also conducted.

A Russian army-commander (and a number of his subordinates) was removed for lying to his superiors about advances in the Siversk sector, and then launching costly assaults that failed while trying to make those lies a reality.

Russian assaults in this sector that were destroyed a little more than a week ago.

In an effort to cover ground quickly in an assault, Russians have used armored vehicles, motorcycles, golf carts, scooters, and now Lada civilian cars. The video didn’t show one of the dismounts being immediately killed or the car hitting a mine.

One Ukrainian soldier holds off six attackers.

***

Bakhmut

Of the Russian airstrikes recorded, six were in Chasiv Yar and 21 were on Ukrainian positions along the canal south of Chasiv Yar. That said, the Russians are making incremental advances into Chasiv Yar and Ukraine dropped two bombs on a multi-story building in the middle of this town. Russia continues to slowly expand its foothold across the canal to the north of Chasiv Yar, too and also expanded its territorial gains east of the canal by approaching Hryhorivka.

South of Chasiv Yar, they still have a toehold at a crossroads directly west of Ivanivske and the airstrikes were aimed at disrupting the counterattacks of Ukraine’s 24th Brigade in this sector. Even further south, they pushed through Andriivka and reached the canal to the west.

The 24th Brigade destroys Russian vehicles with drones.

Russian airstrikes pound the woods just south of Chasiv Yar (marked on the map with a red 7-point star).

An M777 is detected and damaged by a Lancet 7 km from the front (marked on the map).

While not an overwhelming artillery barrage, it does show the 93rd Brigade firing on Russians on the eastern side of the canal (marked by a blue 7-point star on the map).

***

(…to be continued…)