Don's Weekly, 24 June 2024: Part 1
by Donald Hill
Hello everybody!
It’s Monday and thus the time for Don to review developments of the last week.
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Kharkiv
The Ukrainian counterattacks continue and there’s a reason for that. Kharkiv is an objective that Ukraine wants to preserve and there’s not as much depth between the border and the city. Counterattacks regain a certain amount of depth for the city. It also helps that Russian defensive positions are thin and they are still defending by attacking. How far the Ukrainian counterattacks will go depends on how much depth they want to regain and what the cost is to regain it.
In Vovchansk, Russia continues trying to push south. After defeating Russian attacks on the eastern side of the city, Ukraine was able to advance 200 meters across a sector that was 700 meters wide. Geolocations of the heavy artillery and airstrikes on Andrew Perpetua’s map indicate that the eastern side of the city has firmly established lines but that the western side is still contested.
Based on bombardment patterns of both sides, I would say that the section marked “Probable Ukrainian Control” was firmly controlled by Ukraine - because only Russian artillery strikes, airstrikes and drone attacks occurred here since May 16th. However, on June 22nd, Ukraine conducted an airstrike here, indicating a sizable Russian presence. It could be an isolated instance of a single Russian push that was trapped, much like what happened at the aggregate plant, or it could mean that control in this area is now ‘intermingled’. There was also a pair of June 17th Ukrainian airstrikes to the west and northwest of this area.
It is yet another indication of how thin and dispersed the front lines tend to be when faced with heavy firepower. Russian bombardments using bombs, artillery and rockets tend to be heavy and randomly saturate an area. To reduce casualties, Ukraine mans the front line with low unit density, minimizing the number of soldiers that are exposed to the risk of bombardment, but still maintaining a presence to advance and hold territory with strong support from drones and occasionally artillery. Most of the Russian front lines are thinly held, as well, but when they gather in large numbers, Ukraine calls in an airstrike, something that has happened at least seven times in the month of June. Two buildings in the western side of the city seem to be a preferred Russian gathering point as both have been hit twice by airstrikes.
Both sides control houses in the west. For brief periods, they are only ten meters from each other or on different floors of the same building. It is a contested corridor that is regularly pounded with drones, artillery strikes and airstrikes. Stefan Korshak reported that a small group of soldiers reached the aggregate plant after suffering heavy losses but that was on or before June 14th. Russia sent drones with food, water and ammo to the isolated plant but those deliveries cannot meet all their needs and casualties cannot be evacuated.
There were reports that the Russians at the aggregate plant surrendered. However, on June 15th a video of an airstrike on the plant was posted. But on June 17th, a video of an ATGM strike on one of the buildings was posted. On June 19th, a rare Russian BMP was knocked out in the contested corridor, possibly on the way to the plant as a relief effort. And on June 21st a video was posted of an airstrike in the contested corridor (at 0:15) and the eastern end of the aggregate plant (0:17), which is 150 meters away from the buildings hit by the June 15th airstrike. These are strong indications that there is still some Russian presence in the aggregate plant.
A drone operator with the 36th Marine Brigade shared his experiences in Vovchansk. He starts by saying Russia dropped 13 glide bombs in one hour and six more bombs in the next hour. When 150 bombs deployed throughout Ukraine in 24 hours is ‘a lot’, 19 bombs in two hours at one location is ‘huge’. The Russians attack his unit’s position with 12 drones an hour, even at night, and are using more helicopters.
For comparison: a Russian in the Vovchansk sector said the Ukrainians are using 20 drones an hour during daylight.
He confirmed that Russia is only attacking with infantry, very few vehicles, and because of that they are suffering heavy losses. One day a Russian assault of 17 paratroopers from 83rd Brigade was stopped with mortars, leaving them with four dead and 10 wounded. That said, the Russian 22nd Regiment of the 72nd Division is being outfitted with about 60 vehicles, mostly BMPs.
He also confirmed that Russia is sending units from other areas, like an assault battalion of the 155th Marine (from southern Donetsk), a Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) from the 9th Mechanized Brigades (from southern Donetsk), and a Marine battalion from the 810th Marine Brigade (from Zaporizhzhia). The BTG is the first time this formation was used since 2022. It consists of 3 mechanized companies, 3 assault companies, and 2 prisoner assault companies…https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1803089127388184736
Comrades of the Ukrainian drone-operator in the 36th Brigade use drones and infantry to clear a Russian trench…https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1803791630329073853
Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade clears a trench…https://x.com/gettylegion/status/1803581350773141720
The Russians shell a Ukrainian position 200 meters north of the aggregate plant…https://x.com/giK1893/status/1803573165467004944
Ukrainian infantry are hit by a Russian drone…https://t.me/rusich_army/15238
Madyar’s Birds publish their latest series of successes…https://x.com/albafella1/status/1803535211864498304
After receiving intelligence about a house containing a Russian drone team, Magyar’s Birds surveillance confirms the intel. The full video is here, but the shorter version shows the drone flying low, without any loss of signal, and conducts a reconnaissance of the garden before entering the house, flying by boxes of ammo before entering an interior room and taking a look around before detonation.
The stronger the building, the greater chance it has of surviving detonations. About half the buildings around the Lyptsi hospital were already leveled before the airstrike. Here is a view during more peaceful times. The Russian channel claims that a 3000 kg bomb is used but Tom demonstrates that it was a 1500 kg bomb. The bomb detonates adjacent to one end of the hospital. Single story buildings that are 10 meters away are leveled. 70 meters away, a single-story building that is already without a roof loses its walls. Two large buildings across the street are already destroyed, but the ruins are pelted with heavy fragmentation 170 meters away. Any human beings in the open at that location would have a good chance of being killed or injured. The hospital walls, some just 10 meters from the blast, survive, but the roof is gone…https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1803771592863875421
A PzH2000 receives a fire mission. After exiting its camouflaged hide position it quickly fires its mission so it can return before being spotted by a Russian drone…https://x.com/deaidua/status/1804190137582010507
(…to be continued…)
Thanks for this report Don
Thank you very much.