Don's Weekly, 22 January 2024: Part 2

(…continued from Part 1…)

Kherson

Russian drones are still able to attack Ukrainian targets 15 km north of the Dnieper and Lancet and FPV attacks are fairly widespread. At least two Ukrainian boats were sunk. Ukrainian FPVs and reconnaissance drones took their toll on Russian equipment with kamikaze attacks and spotting for HIMARS/MLRS and other artillery systems.

According to Russian bloggers, their best drone operator was killed near Krynky. However effective he actually was, they claim he killed a lot of Ukrainians…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1748256128859816057

This is the reported aftermath of the strike on the Russian drone operator, halfway between Krynky and Kozachi Laheri…

https://twitter.com/Mortenthebjorn/status/1748252888122425486

Armin van Buuren is a Dutch DJ but I don’t understand Magyar’s reference when narrating the destruction of a BTR in the forest south of Krynky…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1747181844389404938

A BM-21 was destroyed neary Kryny…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1747154030856409560

Russians are in a van when it is hit by a kamikaze drone. The van keeps moving…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1747020323839480028

A Russian assesses the damage to his car…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1746197916664971491

A Russian air defense system was discovered…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1747385371346780563

Two Russian rocket launchers were destroyed by a precision weapon…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1747188208905904489

The weapon might have been a Vulcano…https://www.militarytoday.com/artillery/vulcano.htm

A BM-21 is destroyed south of Kherson…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1747246234245427523

15 km north of Lvove and the Dnieper river, a Ukrainian APC was knocked out by a drone…

https://twitter.com/lost_warinua/status/1746463465324118283

Three Russian trucks and a command vehicle are damaged or destroyed in Nova Kakhovka…https://t.me/hvulia91/1405

Crimea

There were 9-11 A-50 planes that could fly and three of them were the upgraded A-50M, which has a much more effective electronics than the original A-50. Tom explained what happened to the A-50M and Il-22M after a Ukrainian operation against Russian radars and air defense systems in Crimea:

Ukraine War, 16 January 2024: Scratch one A-50

Russia is pushing the story through it’s allied war bloggers that their own air defense systems engaged three of their own aircraft. The Institute for the Study of War believes the Russian’s are doing so to reassure Russian pilots that it is safe to conduct missions if they can only control their own incompetence. They would at least have some control over that as opposed to being shot down by Ukrainian air defenses. The Russians have claimed that their air defenses shot down their own planes several times…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1747196832722149439

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The patrol path of the Russian planes…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1746856498683089159

Since that attack, A-50 planes have been operation over Russian land on the Azov coast…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/19/uk-new-russian-a-50-radar-plane-kept-distant-from-ukraine-after-previous-one-downed/?fbclid=IwAR3C2xpAj5ladeamWJ0rrmlJnQ7pUKSbmNe5JpTbkBEFHbAPMBf6bRUpizY

A patrol ship that was stolen from Ukraine in 2014 was sunk a few weeks ago and was just confirmed…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26898

Ukraine

Since independence, Ukraine has been plagued by corruption led by oligarchs that control steel, oil and agriculture production. With their money, they bought favor with politicians, police and the courts. There were ten billionaires before the war but with the destruction of assets there is only two left of the ten before this phase of the war. The 20 richest Ukrainians lost $20 billion. They controlled 80% of Ukraine’s industries.

Akhmetov controlled coal, steel, agriculture and transportation assets. He lost $9 billion when two steel factories were destroyed in Mariupol, including the Azov steel factory. It was responsible for 20% of Ukraine’s steel output. He also owns the coke plant that has been damaged on the front lines of Avdiivka. His steel and mining company lost a third of its assets. Many of his wind and thermal plants have also been damaged or destroyed but he still produces 2/3 of Ukraine’s thermal energy powered by coal. He owned 11 TV channels to influence opinion and supported President Yanukovych, who’s preference for Russia over Europe ignited the Maidan protests, his abdication of power and the first invasion of 2014. He is not wanted for any crime.

Kolomoisky supported Zelensky’s campaign. He owned Ukraine’s largest oil refinery that was destroyed in central Ukraine and he’s lost two thirds of his oil assets. His oil refineries were nationalized. In September, Kolomoisky was arrested on fraud and money laundering charges and is being held in pre-trial detention.

Firtash served in many positions in Yushchenko’s administration, which was oriented to the west. He was a middleman for Russia’s Gazprom with the agreement of Putin and a Russian crime boss. He funneled money into the campaigns of pro-Russian politicians. He is a co-owner of RosUkrEnergo, which transports natural gas from Turkmenistan to eastern Europe. 50% of the company is owned by Gazprom. He owns most of Ukraine’s titanium, it’s 11th largest bank, several chemical plants and financial organizations. In 2014, he was arrested in Austria on bribery charges in the US. Spain has a 2017 warrant for money laundering. Ukraine has a warrant for embezzlement.

Zhevago was a politician for 21 years until he was defeated by a candidate from Zelensky’s party. He owns a bank, mining and metallurgical, shipbuilding, engineering, heavy car production, pharmacology and food industries companies and a football team. In 2019, the same year he lost re-election, criminal charges were filed against him for fraud. Ukraine is trying to extradite him from France but the French courts do not believe he will get a fair trial. His AvtoKrAZ company that produces heavy trucks was nationalized. The seizure of his share in mining companies has been criticized as unjustified.

At the beginning of the war, Ukraine consolidated all news programs into a single channel to boost morale and fight Russian disinformation. At first it was received as useful by the public. Now, many say it is just propaganda and stifles dissent. It did reduce the oligarch’s ability to influence politics. In the summer of 2022, Ukraine passed a law that said no one could own a media outlet if they met three of four criteria: Participation in politics, significant media influence, ownership of a monopoly and wealth of at least $70 million. Akhmetov turned in his licenses for his TV stations and newspapers.

On its road to membership in the EU, Ukraine will be required to reduce its corruption to acceptable standards but there is concern that fight to rid Ukraine of its existing oligarchs that new oligarchs will be created with the redistribution of assets…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/world/europe/ukraine-oligarchs-crackdown.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20240115

The UN says that 14.6 million Ukrainians, 40% of the population, needs humanitarian aid…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dont-forget-ukraine-un-urges-aid-funding-appeal-2024-01-15/

Ukraine just passed a law that allows it to store data in the cloud storage facilities of NATO member states. This will provide them with an extra level of protection and can facilitate data sharing between NATO and Ukraine…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/16/ukraine-passes-law-to-enhance-military-readiness-and-veteran-welfare/

Ukraine used electronic warfare in the past to disable Russian drones, but last week Ukraine said for the first time that it disabled 20 Russian missiles with electronic warfare, causing them to fly off course…https://t.me/kpszsu/9766

Ukraine implemented a digital supply system, replacing paperwork and increasing integration with NATO supply systems. This may not seem like much but a key factor in warfare is situational awareness in order to make tactical, operational and strategic decisions. Logistics are key to understanding needs and providing capabilities. This automated system will provide a more accurate view of Ukrainian assets in a near real time environment…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/13/ukraine-rolls-out-nato-standard-automated-military-logistics-system/

The lack of spare parts for Leopard2 tanks were discussed last week. Gepard air defense systems also seem to be short on parts. The digital supply system will help identify the needs but production is required to fulfill the needs…

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1746816438361292842

A repair center for German-produced equipment will be established in western Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1744632137033060733

Missile and drone attacks on Kharkiv vary from once a week to periods of once a day, and its pre-war population of 2 million is now reduced to 1.2 million. At some point, Russia conducted psychological operations over the radio by sending strange messages meant to unnerve citizens, including repeating the phrase, “We will kill you.” A year ago Radio Nakypilo, or Radio Boiling Over, was created to operate on that frequency to drown out the Russian messaging and provide an outlet for frustration and anger. Sometimes the frustration is directed towards the bureaucracy, such as when a real estate agent appears on the broadcast to help people trying to buy new apartments after theirs is blown up. They can receive state subsidies but 14 forms are required.

But most of the anger is directed at the Russians. “Burn in hell until the seventh generation. Curse the unwashed Russians,” wrote a listener after a high casualty attack. The station also interviews soldiers on the front, provides news and hosts talk shows. The attacks are so frequent that programming isn’t interrupted if just a single missile is launched, but announcers will cut in if a lot of missiles are incoming or if one impact was a devestating explosion. Warnings for ballistic missiles can be as little as 40 seconds, just enough time for parents to move children away from windows and maybe into bathtubs…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/20/world/europe/kharkiv-ukraine-russia-radio-station.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20240121&instance_id=113082&nl=the-morning&regi_id=139486627&segment_id=155912&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422

Russia

This post has a map of some of the municipalities that have reported heating issues. It’s widespread and is just more pressure on Russia…

https://twitter.com/jaanus/status/1746543494338928813

The Tambov gunpowder factory is 400 km from the Ukrainian border and a fire broke out there in June…

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1671195406020247552

It was attacked in November by Ukrainian drones…

https://twitter.com/OSINTNic/status/1723118758267347446

It was attacked again last week…

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1748315837260333178

A thermal power station in Magadan, on the Pacific Ocean, had an accident…

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1746978475162886156?s=20

The Kamensky chemical plant in Rostov had a fire in August that killed one person and injured five others. It had another fire last week, although authorities claimed it was operating normally…

https://twitter.com/LXSummer1/status/1746903839410680141

An oil depot in St. Petersburg was hit…

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1698314901180289138

50 km north of Ukraine, four storage tanks at an oil depot in Klyntsi burns…

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1748250069621407968

Ukrainian drones flew 850 km attacked a gas terminal 110 km west of St. Petersburg…

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1748960852936380449

700 km from Ukraine, drones hit the Shcheglovsky Val defense plant in Tula where they build Pantsir-S air defense systems…

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1748848769712456091

A factory in Smolensk, 275 km away, was hit in October and November because it produces Kh-59 cruise missiles. It was hit again on the night of January 21st…https://hromadske.ua/posts/u-smolenskij-oblasti-gur-atakuvala-aviacijnij-zavod-rf

On January 9th, drones attacked a fuel facility at Oryol, not farm from Klintsy. On December 29th, a refinery in Krasnodar was hit. Attacks on oil production and storage may interrupt fuel supplies to the front. Within two weeks of attack on Donetsk oil facilities short-term fuel shortages for the Russians were reported in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka sector. Reducing Russian oil production will also cut into the $400 billion Russia earned in oil exports since the beginning of the second invasion two years ago…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/19/world/europe/ukraine-russia-oil-drone-attack.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20240120&instance_id=113029&nl=the-morning&regi_id=139486627&segment_id=155843&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422

In 2021, Russia had 20 explosions and there had been 20 explosions or less in the previous ten years. In 2022, Russia had 83 explosions not related to drone attacks. These attacks killed 55 people and injured 10,647…https://www.newsweek.com/russia-explosions-ukraine-war-moscow-attacks-kerch-bridge-1818766

There’s been at least 50 explosions in 2023 and most likely more since this site only recorded 62 explosions in 2022…https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_mystery_fires_(2022%E2%80%93present)

With so much of Russia’s budget dedicated to its military its civilian sector suffers. There have been shortages of medical supplies for the Russian army and now there is a shortage of broad spectrum anti-biotics throughout Russia…https://en.defence-ua.com/news/the_uk_defense_intelligence_war_in_ukraine_strains_russian_healthcare_system-9190.html

Before the huge fire in the Wildberries warehouse last week the company helped the authorities round up migrant workers that were sent to Ukraine…https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/01/russian-police-raid-warehouse-in-search-of-war-recruits-reports-a83282

Several Russian cruise missiles don’t even make it out of the country. It could be that substandard electronics are contributing to these crashes…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1746633771904823344

(…to be concluded in the Part 3…)