If GPS jamming on Baltic continues, could Kaliningrad blockade be a viable option instead of military intervention? (since RF says it can respond to an intervention with a nuclear strike).
I wonder, what would they do if some negligent soldier would smoke explosive cigarettes next to that jamming equipment.
I don’t think you could blockade Kaliningrad by air unless you were willing to shoot down Russian planes. Consider the Berlin Blockade. Naval blockade is problematic too for similar reasons.
China has never been a mediator in this conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The Chinese are using Russia and Iran as their puppets in their confrontation with the United States. It is very beneficial for the Chinese to use such regimes to humiliate and finally destroy the reputation of the United States and the EU. The Chinese plan to push the US influence in the world as far as possible in order to offer their own Chinese order instead. Although... Obama's absolute idiotic policy of inaction, and then Trump's isolationism, along with the deterioration of relations with its allies, have harmed the United States even more. I don't know what kind of clinical idiots you have to be to destroy relations with all EU countries, and then even with Canada. The United States probably wants to be left alone in the confrontation with China. This is probably Trump's “brilliant” plan. As for Australia, half of its economy is owned by the Chinese. If anyone thinks that the Chinese will have to land on Australia, it is complete nonsense. The only thing that saves Australia is that it is far from China, that the Chinese cannot absorb it economically in its entirety.
Overall, the war in Ukraine is a bad thing for China because it incentivized the U.S. and NATO to massively increase weapons production, particularly in artillery ammunition and air defense systems.
China does not want a military conflict with NATO. Neither NATO wants a military conflict with China. Therefore it's just that EU has finally lost its peace dividend economy.
On the other hand, China may benefit in the event of dissolution of RF. And it earns benefits from selling drones and other goods to both parties.
I’ll pretty sure you’d see some NATO member states countries involved in a Pacific war even if NATO as an organization is not involved. Plus European nations could be a source of munitions for the combatants.
China does not need wars, at least those fought through manpower. Their population pyramid is in a bad shape, and they are already winning through economy and soft power.
Yes, it's a classic Chinese policy, wait 50 or 100 years, slowly work towards gaining the power and then attack Taiwan or whoever with minimal damage.
But it's not about China or Russia, it's about Putin and Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping is similar to Putin that he is old man with the all power and what he misses is to gain a fame and glory in historic books, i.e. to enlarge Chinese country. So, for sure, he want some kind of "victory" before he dies.
Re-taking the Northern Territories would be much stronger gain than occupying Taiwan. Moreover, in the long run Taiwan is already theirs - it cannot defend itself, while freeing Siberia is rather opportunistic - that can be achieved only if Russia becomes very weak.
Why does China need a military conflict with NATO now, if Russia is playing this role for them, acting as a puppet, scarecrow and bogeyman? Especially since the economies of France, the UK, Germany, Italy, Greece, Serbia and other EU countries depend on China? In fact, China needed all the countries of Eastern Europe, including Ukraine. China was counting on Western Europe itself to become a territory of absolute chaos in the future due to pervasive corruption, economic problems, and Merkel and Hollande's idiotic migration policy. China has so far benefited from a soft power policy that takes control of other countries through investment, corruption of the local elite, and technology, but this can change at any time. For example, as China has begun to covertly and now openly support its puppet Russia militarily. In fact, China does not need Russian oil and gas in such volumes because the Chinese buy oil much cheaper from Iran and Venezuela. As for gas, the Chinese are using technology to commercially extract natural gas from the so-called “combustible ice” (methane hydrate) in the South China Sea. But China is deliberately keeping Russia's economy afloat so that Putin can complete what they have planned together to occupy Ukraine. Moreover, China does not need Russian oil and gas, because China is a leader in the production and use of alternative energy sources.
Few people know that former fugitive Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych sold Crimea and the entire Black Sea region to the Chinese for 99 years for $10 billion. Yanukovych took the money and didn't give it to the Chinese, and then after the Maidan revolution in Kyiv and throughout Ukraine, he took the state treasury and fled to Moscow. In other words, he did the same thing that Assad did after the fall of his regime.
04.12.2013 The Chinese will start implementing projects in Ukraine. In the summer, it became known that 3 million hectares of land in Dnipropetrovs'k, Kherson regions and Crimea were leased for 50 years.
Something tells me that after the Beijing Olympics, Putin assured Xi that he would complete his special operation in three days and pay back the debt of his puppet Yanukovych, and then they would divide Ukraine and its natural resources as they pleased.
I know for certain that the EU Commission was aware of that, but they turned a blind eye. The fuel prices didn't rise, so the political parties can be reelected. Ukraine? Here is some money for you, and don't ask any questions.
35 years ago, on July 16, 1990, the Supreme Council of the Ukrainian SSR adopted the Declaration of State Sovereignty, according to which Ukraine "solemnly declares its intention to become a permanently neutral state in the future that does not participate in military blocs and adheres to three non-nuclear principles: not to accept, not to produce and not to acquire nuclear weapons."
It also declared the equality of citizens of the republic, including on the basis of language. Subsequently, a reference to the Declaration was included in the Act on the Declaration of Independence of Ukraine of August 24, 1991. These norms were also included in the Constitution of Ukraine, adopted on June 28, 1996.
War changes things,. of course.
Still, any solution to the war, realistic solution, would have to somehow accommodate these foundational principles, or accept the creation of a new Ukrainian state, based on somewhat different foundations.
A new Ukraine is more likely, and it's borders are currently being determined in the war. As an observer, I can only say it is a tragedy this conflict has not been resolved by diplomacy.
But thousands years of history teach us that no one is willing to learn from history.
it is bigger than Putin and Zelensky. They are leaders, symbols and actual CEOs , political managers, but in reality, they do represent elites leading the country.
Elites chose strategies that led to war.
Lack of trust, between Ukraine and Russia, that was exacerbated by foreign, western intervention.
But primarily lack of trust.
Could independent Ukraine trust Russia that it can be neutral, and safe, i.e. not be attacked by Russia, one day?
Could Russia trust Ukraine that independent Ukraine will never join in an enemy attack on Russia?
As history has shown, both Ukraine and Russia had serious reasons to doubt each other's trustworthiness.
Diplomatic solution, negotiated end to conflict, is impossible if there is no trust.
It would have been difficult to arrange a solution before the war started, but it was possible. US/West declined all negotiations.
Even in Istanbul negotiations,in April 2022, it was still possible, to arrange some kind of win-win result. Former Israeli premier Naftali Bennett, who helped organize negotiations in Istambul assessed chances of success at 50%. US/West refused negotiations.
Win-win result is impossible from August 2022, as correctly predicted by Henry Kissinger, 100 years old at the time. War has its own logic, and dynamic, said Kissinger, and from August 2022 it will be very difficult to stop.
From this moment on, War has to end with a loser, if you look from the inside, from Ukraine or Russia.
For us who are observers, it is obvious that both countries are losing.
For the sides fighting this war, if in the end the enemy loses more, it can be called a victory.
It is a tragedy, like most wars, and we are waiting to see who will be attritted, exhausted first.
If GPS jamming on Baltic continues, could Kaliningrad blockade be a viable option instead of military intervention? (since RF says it can respond to an intervention with a nuclear strike).
I wonder, what would they do if some negligent soldier would smoke explosive cigarettes next to that jamming equipment.
I don’t think you could blockade Kaliningrad by air unless you were willing to shoot down Russian planes. Consider the Berlin Blockade. Naval blockade is problematic too for similar reasons.
China has never been a mediator in this conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The Chinese are using Russia and Iran as their puppets in their confrontation with the United States. It is very beneficial for the Chinese to use such regimes to humiliate and finally destroy the reputation of the United States and the EU. The Chinese plan to push the US influence in the world as far as possible in order to offer their own Chinese order instead. Although... Obama's absolute idiotic policy of inaction, and then Trump's isolationism, along with the deterioration of relations with its allies, have harmed the United States even more. I don't know what kind of clinical idiots you have to be to destroy relations with all EU countries, and then even with Canada. The United States probably wants to be left alone in the confrontation with China. This is probably Trump's “brilliant” plan. As for Australia, half of its economy is owned by the Chinese. If anyone thinks that the Chinese will have to land on Australia, it is complete nonsense. The only thing that saves Australia is that it is far from China, that the Chinese cannot absorb it economically in its entirety.
Overall, the war in Ukraine is a bad thing for China because it incentivized the U.S. and NATO to massively increase weapons production, particularly in artillery ammunition and air defense systems.
China does not want a military conflict with NATO. Neither NATO wants a military conflict with China. Therefore it's just that EU has finally lost its peace dividend economy.
On the other hand, China may benefit in the event of dissolution of RF. And it earns benefits from selling drones and other goods to both parties.
I’ll pretty sure you’d see some NATO member states countries involved in a Pacific war even if NATO as an organization is not involved. Plus European nations could be a source of munitions for the combatants.
China does not need wars, at least those fought through manpower. Their population pyramid is in a bad shape, and they are already winning through economy and soft power.
Yes, it's a classic Chinese policy, wait 50 or 100 years, slowly work towards gaining the power and then attack Taiwan or whoever with minimal damage.
But it's not about China or Russia, it's about Putin and Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping is similar to Putin that he is old man with the all power and what he misses is to gain a fame and glory in historic books, i.e. to enlarge Chinese country. So, for sure, he want some kind of "victory" before he dies.
Re-taking the Northern Territories would be much stronger gain than occupying Taiwan. Moreover, in the long run Taiwan is already theirs - it cannot defend itself, while freeing Siberia is rather opportunistic - that can be achieved only if Russia becomes very weak.
Why does China need a military conflict with NATO now, if Russia is playing this role for them, acting as a puppet, scarecrow and bogeyman? Especially since the economies of France, the UK, Germany, Italy, Greece, Serbia and other EU countries depend on China? In fact, China needed all the countries of Eastern Europe, including Ukraine. China was counting on Western Europe itself to become a territory of absolute chaos in the future due to pervasive corruption, economic problems, and Merkel and Hollande's idiotic migration policy. China has so far benefited from a soft power policy that takes control of other countries through investment, corruption of the local elite, and technology, but this can change at any time. For example, as China has begun to covertly and now openly support its puppet Russia militarily. In fact, China does not need Russian oil and gas in such volumes because the Chinese buy oil much cheaper from Iran and Venezuela. As for gas, the Chinese are using technology to commercially extract natural gas from the so-called “combustible ice” (methane hydrate) in the South China Sea. But China is deliberately keeping Russia's economy afloat so that Putin can complete what they have planned together to occupy Ukraine. Moreover, China does not need Russian oil and gas, because China is a leader in the production and use of alternative energy sources.
Few people know that former fugitive Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych sold Crimea and the entire Black Sea region to the Chinese for 99 years for $10 billion. Yanukovych took the money and didn't give it to the Chinese, and then after the Maidan revolution in Kyiv and throughout Ukraine, he took the state treasury and fled to Moscow. In other words, he did the same thing that Assad did after the fall of his regime.
04.12.2013 The Chinese will start implementing projects in Ukraine. In the summer, it became known that 3 million hectares of land in Dnipropetrovs'k, Kherson regions and Crimea were leased for 50 years.
https://tsn.ua/groshi/yanukovich-u-kitayi-zbirayetsya-domovitisya-pro-krediti-na-kilka-milyardiv-zmi-323581.html
18.08.2011 Yanukovych to sell last Soviet defense secrets to China
https://censor.net/ru/resonance/178843/yanukovich_prodast_kitayu_poslednie_sekrety_sovetskoyi_oboronki
Something tells me that after the Beijing Olympics, Putin assured Xi that he would complete his special operation in three days and pay back the debt of his puppet Yanukovych, and then they would divide Ukraine and its natural resources as they pleased.
Wow! It’s so unexpected! The new sanctions on India. Let me remind you of a few facts. In 2022, Russia became India's second biggest oil exporter. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-becomes-indias-second-biggest-oil-exporter-trade-sources-2022-06-13/
India's exports of petroleum products increased by 98%. https://www.commerce.gov.in/press-releases/indias-merchandise-export-rises-16-8-to-usd-37-9-billion-in-june-2022-as-compared-to-usd-32-49-billion-in-june-2021-recording-highest-ever-exports-in-june-2022/
India is the biggest exporter of fuel to the EU
https://www.thehindu.com/business/russian-oil-finds-its-way-to-europe-via-india-india-now-biggest-exporter-of-fuel-to-eu/article68852062.ece
I know for certain that the EU Commission was aware of that, but they turned a blind eye. The fuel prices didn't rise, so the political parties can be reelected. Ukraine? Here is some money for you, and don't ask any questions.
35 years ago, on July 16, 1990, the Supreme Council of the Ukrainian SSR adopted the Declaration of State Sovereignty, according to which Ukraine "solemnly declares its intention to become a permanently neutral state in the future that does not participate in military blocs and adheres to three non-nuclear principles: not to accept, not to produce and not to acquire nuclear weapons."
It also declared the equality of citizens of the republic, including on the basis of language. Subsequently, a reference to the Declaration was included in the Act on the Declaration of Independence of Ukraine of August 24, 1991. These norms were also included in the Constitution of Ukraine, adopted on June 28, 1996.
War changes things,. of course.
Still, any solution to the war, realistic solution, would have to somehow accommodate these foundational principles, or accept the creation of a new Ukrainian state, based on somewhat different foundations.
A new Ukraine is more likely, and it's borders are currently being determined in the war. As an observer, I can only say it is a tragedy this conflict has not been resolved by diplomacy.
But thousands years of history teach us that no one is willing to learn from history.
Tenés que entender que Putin se pasa la diplomacia por dónde no le llega el sol.
Iba a ver guerra de cualquier manera.
Alejo,
it is bigger than Putin and Zelensky. They are leaders, symbols and actual CEOs , political managers, but in reality, they do represent elites leading the country.
Elites chose strategies that led to war.
Lack of trust, between Ukraine and Russia, that was exacerbated by foreign, western intervention.
But primarily lack of trust.
Could independent Ukraine trust Russia that it can be neutral, and safe, i.e. not be attacked by Russia, one day?
Could Russia trust Ukraine that independent Ukraine will never join in an enemy attack on Russia?
As history has shown, both Ukraine and Russia had serious reasons to doubt each other's trustworthiness.
Diplomatic solution, negotiated end to conflict, is impossible if there is no trust.
It would have been difficult to arrange a solution before the war started, but it was possible. US/West declined all negotiations.
Even in Istanbul negotiations,in April 2022, it was still possible, to arrange some kind of win-win result. Former Israeli premier Naftali Bennett, who helped organize negotiations in Istambul assessed chances of success at 50%. US/West refused negotiations.
Win-win result is impossible from August 2022, as correctly predicted by Henry Kissinger, 100 years old at the time. War has its own logic, and dynamic, said Kissinger, and from August 2022 it will be very difficult to stop.
From this moment on, War has to end with a loser, if you look from the inside, from Ukraine or Russia.
For us who are observers, it is obvious that both countries are losing.
For the sides fighting this war, if in the end the enemy loses more, it can be called a victory.
It is a tragedy, like most wars, and we are waiting to see who will be attritted, exhausted first.
Here's a suggestion for the EU, stop the jamming or lose your deposits in our banks Russia. Give them 40 days to think it over.