Don's Weekly, 21 July 2025: Part 1

by Donald Hill (intro by Tom Cooper)

Hello everybody!

The last week, even most of Ukrainians have realised it: Pokrovsk (and Mirnohorod) is (are) surrounded by the Russians from three sides, and the last communications leading into the town are ‘at least’ within reach of the Russian artillery. There are no safe roads or railways to and out left: even the evacuation of remaining civilians is now extremely dangerous, if possible at all. Pokrovsk is thus now expecting the same fate like Mariinka, Avdiivka, Bakhmut….

We’ve discussed the reasons ‘all over’, again and again, the last year, and my impression is that it’s getting pointless discussing it any further: sure, there is some critique of Zele/Yermak and Syrsky in Ukraine; sure, officers and other ranks are complaining - primarily via the social media - again and again; sure, the trigger-pullers of the ZSU know where’s the problem, but: this is leaving no impression upon the buddies in Kyiv. Thus, the situation remains far from even moving towards the point at which it might force any kind of serious and urgently necessary reforms at the top.

Arguably, yes, the Ukrainian group of forces in the Sumy area has managed a local counterattack that recovered some territory. However, the Russians still had enough reserves on hand - the 810th Naval Infantry and Akhmats - to rapidly plug the resulting gap and stabilise the frontline again…

Conclusion is obvious: if all of ‘the West’ is descending into idiocracy, why should Ukraine do any better?

Over to Don…

***

Kursk/Sumy

Russia conducted airstrikes west and north and inside of Kindrativka. A rubber boat that ferries Russians across the river was destroyed 2 km northeast of Kindrativka. Russian positions and depots 2-4 km north of Zuravka are bombed. Ukrainian positions south of Varachyne are bombed and a Dutch version of an M113 is hit by two drones near Varachyne and still manages to bring 11 soldiers to safety. Russians in Oleksiivka are spotted and attacked. To the west, Tyotkino was bombed.

Overall, the 425th Skala Battalion and the 8th SSO, in cooperation with the 225th Battalion, have cleared what’s left of Kindrativka. It was an infantry (counter)attack in form of a pincer from the west and south. The Russians inside the village were smashed, but - as mentioned in the intro - their command rapidly brought in the 810th NIB and the 204th Akhmat Regiment to stabilise the line east of the village.

Sadly… indeed: tragically - in the ZSU under Syrsky, such examples of sound tactical command remain countable on fingers of one hand. Indeed: they’re possible only where no Buddies are involved.

There are some more details about the July 2nd strike in Korenevo, Kursk, that killed 20 and wounded 30 of Russia’s infamous 155th Marine Brigade - including its entire HQ.

***

Vovchansk

Russians have occupied the woods west of Vovchansk and the edge of the northwestern side of the city. Russian soldiers are pursued in the wasteland, woods and river and inside the oil extraction plant. The 60 meter wide river location was 2 km west of the city. 16 km northwest of Vovchansk, Russian equipment is targeted.

***

Milove

Russians advanced 1200 meters out of Milove before they were met by a tank and BTR from the 3rd Heavy Mechanized Brigade (the recently re-organised and re-designated 3rd [Independent] Tank Brigade.)

***

Kupiansk

Three vehicles and 17 Russians were destroyed a kilometer past the front lines, east of Petropavlivka. Russian positions by Kyslivka are hit. The 1st Presidential Operational Brigade is deployed north of Borova. Their drone unit destroyed a North Korean Type 75 MRL two kilometers west of Lyman Pershyi.

***

Terny

Russians in Nove were spotted and attacked and an armored vehicle was destroyed. A Russian was crossing a field near Ridkodub.

Ukrainians are attacked around Novoiehorivka. The Russians shell Zelenyi Hai. Russians are spotted and attacked 2.5 km northwest of Zelenyi Hai.

***

Siversk

The 54th Brigade destroyed five armored vehicles trying to cross a small creek south of Bilohorivka and 5 km from the front, and they destroyed infantry north of Verkhnokamianske.

***

Toretsk

Kurt & Co from the 28th Brigade attacked Russians in Dyliivka. Ukrainians in Pleshchiivka are attacked. Rubicon attacks Ukrainians in eastern Yablunivka. Ukraine attacks Russians in western Yablunivka. Russians raise a flag in Novospaske. Rubicon spots a car during the day in Kosiantynivka, and when a drone is stalking a car the rule is to get out immediately. Fighting in Shcherbynivka, which is now surrounded on three sides. Russia was unable to advance north from Popiv Yar last week.

Russian soldiers near Chasiv Yar were ordered to conduct an unsupported assault. When they refused, the platoon leader threatened to shoot them. They shot him instead and waved white flags as they approached Ukrainian lines, where they surrendered.

Rifles, shotguns and nets are being used by the 93rd Brigade against fiber-optic drones.

Footage from inside the vehicle last October when they conducted a raid to destroy a Russian-occupied building in Toretsk.

***

Pokrovsk

The 38th Marine Brigade counterattacked the Russians west of Razine. Novoekonomichne is shelled by the Russians. A Shahed drone hit a train 24 km from the front, killing the crew. Dobropillya was hit by an airstrike. Rubicon shows its successes in the Pokrovsk area. Russia made little progress west of Razine, but they made advances of varying sizes at Pishchane, Udachne and Kotliarivke, and, on Saturday, they broke through from Piddubne to Zelenyi Hai…

Russia’s 41st (Guards) Combined Arms Army has four brigades and is currently fighting in the western half of the Pokrovsk area. As of 1 June, they’ve suffered 8,625 killed, 10,491 missing in action, and 7,846 deserted in this battle. The 74th Brigade suffered the worst over the years, with 8,000 killed, missing or deserted out of its original strength of 3,500. All four brigades are from poor Siberian regions with ethnic minorities where a disproportionate number of soldiers come from because of the bonuses for signing up.

Moving around Pokrovsk has become increasingly dangerous because of drones. There are damaged cars, fallen trees and rubble blocking the way. The nets over the roads have saved a lot of cars and lives but some sections are torn up and hanging in the road, making it difficult to pass. Even if they don’t block the road, the nets sag so low that antennas get entangled.

When Andrew Perpetua’s team sees a destroyed vehicle at a location that isn’t on their map, they add it. These vehicles could have been destroyed weeks or months ago. Russia released a video of a 4 km stretch of road that is 9 km south of Pokrovsk. Here is a video of the road. There were 120 destroyed vehicles on that stretch of road, one of which was a BTR and the rest were vans, trucks, cars and carts. A March 26th video that showed a small stretch of that road didn’t have any wrecked logistical vehicles. This is an indication of how difficult it is to supply troops for both sides.

***

(…to be continued…)