Don's Weekly, 20 November 2023: Part 3

(…continued from Part 2….)

Russia

Mediazona lists confirmed Russian casualties based on obituaries, death payments and other means. This does not capture all the actual deaths, but it is useful for recognizing trends. For instance, not all deaths have obituaries, but there was an average of 80 obituaries posted each day in the summer and now there are between 100-110 posted a day. There are several interactive charts that break down the details by week, home oblast, age, military occupation, etc…https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

Ukrainians fleeing occupied lands head to Sumy, where an unofficial ceasefire exists. About 100 people cross each day…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-border-crossing.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20231117&instance_id=107956&nl=the-morning&regi_id=139486627&segment_id=150296&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422

There are large sections of Ukraine’s border with Russia where very little happens. Last week, a Russian recon and sabotage unit tried to penetrate near Sumy. They don’t talk of any Russian casualties, but five Ukrainians died…

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1723441638213640224

The 15-year-old son of Kadyrov is awarded for his contribution to whatever is printed on the paper…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1725479885357883489

If you replace supermarket price tags with anti-war messages, you could get seven years in prison…

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1725148263068651989

Some details…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1725795344905068653

Russia said it shot down several drones near an aircraft plant in Smolensk…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1725449681252094417

The smoking remains of a drone likely shot down near Moscow…

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1726125752335405233/video/1

Somewhere near Volgograd, an ammunition dump burned…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1725034990965080517/video/3

In an eastern suburb of Moscow, patriotic Russian citizens helped round up illegal and legal migrants. The illegal migrants were fined, deported and banned from Russia for five years. The legal migrants were sent to Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1725899573363626130

Diplomacy

A reader left this post in the comment section last week. It speaks of relations between Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, the US and Russia in the early days of the 2022 invasion. I think you’ll find it interesting…

https://twitter.com/FilippDM/status/1724171496552063182

There are 10,000 Russian troops in Armenia, and the Armenian prime minister does not see any advantage to them being in his country. He rejects Russia as the mediator for peace talks with Azerbaijan, preferring the EU. Azerbaijan rejects the EU as mediator, preferring Russia. Russian state TV has been attacking the Armenian prime minister, saying he should be replaced and asking, “Guess what fate awaits him?”…https://eurasianet.org/armenian-pm-sees-no-advantage-in-russian-troop-presence-as-ties-with-moscow-deteriorate-further

Finland closed four border crossings with Russia as illegal immigrants kept flowing into their country, many equipped with the same model bicycles. Five remain open but they might be shut down in the future. About 300 entered last week, surging to 163 on November 17 before the crossings were closed…https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/11/18/finland-shuts-down-four-border-crossings-with-russia-amid-migrant-surge/

Some more details on the manipulation of immigrants. For instance, it is illegal to drive from Russia to Norway or Finland without a permit, and it is illegal to enter by foot, so the immigrants were issued bycycles…

https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1726300413077631014

And…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1725849014791250209

Tens of thousands of migrants have been aimed at Poland through Belarus since 2021…https://www.voanews.com/a/poland-says-belarus-russia-organizing-new-migrant-influx/7214946.html

In a couple of weeks, the US and others will talk yet again about producing more weapons…

https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1725779129235046833

Electronic Warfare (EW)

As stated in The Battle for the Heavens, air superiority is vital for the success of ground operations. US/NATO electronic warfare capabilities more than overpowered opponents in Iraq and Afghanistan. But a Chinese report from a year ago assessed that the Russian anti-drone capabilities are superior to US capabilities. Ukraine also reported that 90% of the US and European systems could not match up to the Russian systems. Unlike its ground forces, Russia invested a lot into their EW systems and continues to evolve in that field as the war progresses. Ukraine is working on their own immediate improvements. They try it, test it and then utilize it on the front lines. There is constant feedback between the soldiers and the developers. NATO is also increasing their EW investments. They also use information from Ukraine but their systemic approaches take longer.

One of the basic operations in EW is jamming, sending a strong signal over a frequency that drowns out any other signals. It is used to interrupt communications between a drone operator and the drone. Both Russia and Ukraine are trying to avoid the jamming by developing kamikaze drones with AI, meaning there would be no need for communications between the drone and an operator. It’s possible that AI may be developed for a drone that drops munitions but that will be more difficult than flying into a target. But drones fill a huge reconnaissance role which means not only does an operator have to communicate with it, it has to send back video transmissions, as well. In order to function, they operate on different frequencies and use different antennas.

Jamming also disrupts vital communication over radios between units. Ukraine is working on a $100 radio that can maintain communications in an EW environment.

Spoofing is another EW operation. False GPS signals can be sent to convince planes and missiles that they are somewhere different from where they actually are, or they can send signals to air defenses, simulating attacks that aren’t actually happening.

And then there is the detection of enemy EW equipment. This is important to understand your enemy defenses. Jamming and decoy missiles can reveal enemy defenses, and a second wave of attacks can use that information to penetrate those defenses. Detection can also reveal the location of drone operators to within 200 meters and subject them to artillery fire. That range of detection may shrink in the future.

Detection and destruction of enemy EW equipment is also an ongoing effort as it is difficult to replace. Ukraine has destroyed quite a few EW systems in the last couple of months. EW impacts planes, missiles, drones, and communications between ground units. If Ukraine can gain electronic superiority through attrition, innovation and production, it will make it much easier to gain air superiority with their drones. Ukraine doesn’t need conventional air superiority with planes. If they deny the skies to Russian drones, they will blind the Russian army and ground some of their most dangerous weapons…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/19/technology/russia-ukraine-electronic-warfare-drone-signals.html

Equipment

The EU acknowledges that it won’t hit its objective of delivering 1 million 155mm shells to Ukraine in one year. One contributing factor is that exported 40% of their output was sent somewhere else. Imagine that…

https://twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1724444029432045700

I posted early about Ukraine’s efforts to develop autonomous AI drones to defeat Russian jamming. The Russians have been doing the same…https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/23923#:~:text=Russia%20claims%20to%20now%20equip,autonomously%20discern%20and%20destroy%20targets.

Some Russian drones have been using LIDAR to measure the distance to the target before detonating…https://ts2.shop/en/posts/uav-lancet-nga-pha-luoi-thep-bao-ve-thiet-giap-ukraine#google_vignette

How LIDAR works…

As Russian cargo ships depart from Kaliningrad, S-400 systems disappear from there…https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2023/11/13/as-cargo-flights-leave-kaliningrad-air-defence-systems-disappear/?fbclid=IwAR0ixGmwsmMV2nVuEYOTLDtSNHLh29Ci4DK5oIKah6Iywp5Fkw05cN3GGiU

The new Ukrainian Morok drone has a range of 800 km has a payload of 30 kg and costs $47k. The larger Bober drone costs $111k, has a 1000 km range and a 20 kg payload…https://news.yahoo.com/prytula-unveils-long-range-ukrainian-224000743.html

Russian KA-52s have suffered significant losses over the last month. Tartarigami tallied up the visual data and said that a minimum of 25, probably more, still exist…

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1725628555285893436

There is a report that the diameter of some North Korea shells is slightly smaller than they should be, allowing gasses to escape up the sides of the shell (instead of pushing it from the base of the shell) and leading to some barrels exploding. The number of barrels exploding wasn’t listed. Even if a barrel doesn’t blow, the leaking gasses will greatly reduce the accuracy of the shell…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1725821663273472476/video/1

Even with good ammo, barrel bursts happen when the barrels wear out. A Russian protects himself by firing the gun from a hole…

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1725736867180478971

Based on what was given to Ukraine, and how fast they are being produced and used, this individual estimates that Ukraine will run out of Storm Shadow/SCALP somewhere between January and December of 2024. It would be nice if Taurus was made available…

https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1724793283128488040

We know Bradleys are not invulnerable, but here’s another testimonial regarding their survivability…

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1726203329879904349

Russian Operatives

A university faculty member was detained for teaching Russian standards of education. She believes when Russia arrives, everyone will be happy…

https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1725109473981652994

A Ukrainian MP, who worked with Rudolph Giuliani to try and find compromising material on Joe Biden, has been arrested for treason. He is accused of belonging to a group that has been paid $10 million by Russian military intelligence to spread false information and conducting subversive activities on behalf of Russia. Another MP and prosecutor are accused of belonging to the same group but are believed to be hiding outside Ukraine…https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/14/ukraine-mp-linked-to-giuliani-charged-with-colluding-with-russia

Miscellaneous

The location wasn’t published, but there is a report of a Ukrainian-made rifle, the “Lord of the Horizons”, was used in a 3800 meter kill, making it the longest recorded kill in the world. This video shows the weapon used and the video of the kill. Four Russians are highlighted and the one on the far right is hit. 3540 was the previous record from a Canadian in Iraq. The post immediately following shows another Ukrainian shot of 2710 m. It says it used to be the second (now third) longest shot but an Australian in Afghanistan had a shot of 2815 m…

https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/status/1726066600191635492

Two Shahed drones are brought down by cannon fire…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1725109384085131275

A Shahed drone is destroyed by MANPADS…https://twitter.com/i/lists/1708104956195053609

Since the Hamas terrorist attack, CNN’s news coverage of Ukraine dropped from 8% to 1%, and most of the coverage is speculation about whether the West was still willing to support Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1725865592106655769

It’s not just the Russian Orthodox church that blesses the invasion…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1725826511897301044

***

Finally, and because there were related questions, a few words related to the RUMINT about defection of an Ukrainian Su-27-pilot to Russia.

Essentially,

a) about a week ago, the Russians began spreading fake news about an ‘Ukrainian pilot crossing the border to Russia with his Su-27’.

b) The name, rank, unit, etc. - were never released. No photos either. It was merely stated that all of this would follow, which never happened.

c) One should keep in mind that the Russians are still mad about the defection of their Mi-8-crew with their helicopter to Ukraine;

d) the Russians are keen to convince the West that it cannot trust Ukrainians, i.e. that there is a threat of PSU-pilots defecting with any ‘F-16s’ to Russia.

e) Yes, the Russians are meanwhile highly creative with AI-generated videos of top Ukrainian military commanders, too; and,

f) yes, no doubt: there are still Ukrainians ‘waiting for liberation’ - i.e. for the Russians to ‘win’ and ‘save’ them. They’re also the primary public for this campaign.

Bottom line: nothing of this kind has happened.