Don's Weekly, 20 November 2023: Part 1

Good morning everybody!

Generally, it’s ‘positional warfare’ almost everywhere along the frontlines in Ukraine of the last week: sure, the Russians are running some local attacks in the Kupyansk area, in southern Zaporizhzhya, and especially in the Avidiivka area. And Ukrainians have run their own local attacks in the Kremina area and southern Zaporizhzhya. However, there are no large-scale operations on the ground, and even the much-expected Russian aerial offensive is not yet taking place…. if one excludes all the MPK/UMPK glide-bombs dropped by fighter-bombers of the VKS, and regular nocturnal strikes by Shahed UCAVs/LPGMs: one should always keep in mind that these are continuing to cause damage to lots of infrastructure in Ukraine, especially to roads and bridges, but also to other objects in the rear.

….and that the Russians are using them to ‘map’ the modern-day integrated air defence system of the PSU: they’re forcing Ukrainians to turn this on ‘active’ and then monitoring its deployment by the means of electronic intelligence (ELINT).

That said, the actual ‘scrounge of the battlefield’ these days are the Russian drones. In this regards, and tragically for the ZSU, it’s exactly as announced (indeed: feared) by the people in charge of the Ukrainian ‘Army of Drones’ project, earlier this year: the Russians have not only found a way to manufacture battlefield UAVs in huge numbers, but have created a three-tier system. This is starting with their high-flying Orlans (used to monitor the Ukrainian side of the battlefield by video-cameras and ELINT); it’s including heavier drones guided via Orlans, and it’s ‘ending’ with dozens and hundreds of FPVs that are constantly keeping Ukrainian troops on the ground hunkered in their fortifications. Indeed, on certain sectors of the frontline, it’s de-facto a ‘suicide’ for ZSU troops to go out of their shelters. Notably, Orlans are meanwhile improved to the level where they can operate at very low temperatures and in low clouds or light fog…. and - thanks to China - a growing number of Russian FPVs also has night vision devices, which is another of piece of ‘bad news’… More details about this below.

Sufficient to say: unless the ZSU receives significant reinforcements in terms of electronic warfare and air defence capabilities to counter this, one can’t expect it to resume any kind of serious offensive operations, regardless the weather and the time of the year…

That much for ‘introduction’.

Sadly, I’m still too busy with my work but to go on with ‘more’ - no matter how much I would like to add some more analysis (indeed: how much is this overdue). Shouldn’t mean I ‘do not care’: just that I’m lacking the time and ‘freedom of mind’ to sit down and think about a few things, to ‘seriously analyse’. Thus, let me start this week with another issue of Don’s Weekly, summarising developments of the last week (13 - 19 November 2023): I’ll add a few ‘bits and pieces’ to it, too.

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The Ukrainian situation in Avdiivka is still strong, but the heavy Russian pressure generates casualties and wears down defenses. The Ukrainian government says very little about Kherson so the only information comes from videos and Russian bloggers.

Western Luhansk

Russia keeps attacking without gaining territory. They keep losing equipment and personnel in the process. The Ukrainians are not without their own losses.

5 km south of Svatove, 3 BM-21s are hit by 2 M31 rockets. There are no secondary explosions, but they will not be used again…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1725497122756162023

14 km east of Kupiansk, the results of a Russian assault. There’s at least one survivor…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1724367402559766615

Near Svatove, another failed Russian attack…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1725452840670298544

Mines and a Javelin destroy a Russian armored assault near Kupiansk…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1725100524045770920

17 km from the front near Kupiansk, four Russian trucks gather to transfer ammo. An M31 rocket lands 30 m from the center. One truck gets away…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1724496927029399631

Bakhmut

Generally, the centrepiece of ZSU’s action in this area - the 3rd Assault Brigade - is back to resting, which is good that way. The weather is bad, and troops are exhausted after nearly half year of continuous operations.

The biggest reported activity were several Russian counterattacks on Klishchiivka. The Russians sent more troops to attack this village (the loss of which they still haven’t officially announced to their public) and Ukrainian drones engaged a group of them…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1724900619486654709

The 118th TD Brigade discovers and destroys and small ammo depot…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1725616204629356620

Before the Russian assault force could reach the front lines east of Klishchiivka, they were destroyed…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1724726885970493444

Another view…

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1724776407799075159/video/2

Halfway between Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Ukraine takes control of one of two slagheaps northwest of Komsomolets…

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1725919750088204503

Avdiivka

The last few days, the mass of the Russian attacks were run by dismounted infantry. From the ZSU’s point of view, the situation in this area is something like this: there’s the ‘northern flank’, the area north of Avdiivka, where the Russians continue pushing along the railway line in direction of Stepove, and in direction of the Factory/Works south of the Slagheap, and there’s the southern flank, the area between Pervomaiske and Opytne, where the Russians are - generally - pushing in northern direction.

On the northern flank, the Russian infantry assaults are dominating the events, and the mass of them can only be described with ‘moronic’. Essentially, they are attacking in platoon-strong formations (some 20-30 troops). These are moving along the hedgerows: most are easily detected and destroyed by ZSU’s artillery. What is quite ‘amazing’ for observing Ukrainians are how ‘disciplined’ the Russian troops are: they form another assault platoon, move in, are destroyed; then another platoon is formed, moves in, is destroyed….and then another…

Still,

a) some of Ukrainian counterattacks were ‘dumb’, too (and resulting in unnecessary losses);

b) the activity of the Russian UAVs is so intensive, that the mass of forward Ukrainian defence positions has been demolished by them, meanwhile (this is why the Russians were able to advance); and

c) there were few armored/mechanised attacks, as well.

Some Ukrainian positions were attacked twelve times a day. Even when the Russian attacks are turned back, the shelling degrades the defensive positions. After several weeks of attacks, Russia was about to advance about a kilometer towards the southeast corner of Avdiivka. They’ve also extended their reach along the railroad by about 800 meters. Although the Russians claim to actually be inside, they have not been able to advance into the factory.

12 km behind enemy lines, a Russian truck is hit by a drone. The two occupants appear to have seen the drone coming and abandon the vehicle…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1725585048961720416

Within sight of the factory, a Russian shows what’s left of a self-propelled artillery piece…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1724720788660466175

On the southern flank, the 53rd Brigade shows off the land they reclaimed from the Russians and DPR fighters…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1724333461551378836

Both sides have used kamikaze vehicles before. This Russian attempt blows up on a mine…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1725209172143132834

A Russian version of the event…https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_FAX_PXkAEwCVY?format=jpg&name=900x900

North of Vodyane, Russian T72s are destroyed…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1726027317208641872

The first two drone bombs land on Russian positions on the Slagheap. Granted, drone attacks that fail rarely get published, but this was a pretty accurate shot…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1725165741790355971

Western estimates are that Russia is losing 500 to 1000 killed and wounded each day in Avdiivka. I’ve seen no estimates of Ukrainian casualties, but the number of their troops on the front lines and associated casualties is going to be much lower…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1725402430341267462

Tartarigami argues that possession of Avdiivka is important for military reasons…

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1724714305378037934?s=20

The Great Battle for the Heavens or How We Almost Died Again

This is one person’s account of his experiences fighting in Avdiivka. He relates how they endure the constant pounding of rockets, mortars, artillery, and sometimes airstrikes from helicopters and planes. After each near miss they wonder if the next one will be the one that hits them. He tells about how a fellow soldier went looking for a candy bar in his pack, and while he was away, a shell landed in the position he left.

He thanks the soldiers that built and occupied their positions before him. He said without their hard effort on the defensive works they wouldn’t have survived. There are other units in Avdiivka and other battles that haven’t put as much effort into their own survival and they paid the price. There is a saying: In the defense, the work is never done. There is always something to maintain or improve. And yet in Avdiivka, there were entire areas where a second or third line of defense was never built.

But the main point of this author’s post doesn’t concern the artillery or defensive position, it’s the battle for air superiority. The battle for the heavens. It is not Spitfires and Messerschmitts dueling over London. It is drones and anti-drone weapons playing their deadly games over the trenches of Avdiivka.

Because of China, the Russians have created an entire network of drones that are layered in the sky, each with its own task. On the bottom layer are the ordinary drones that drop grenades or fly into a target and explode. The smaller reconnaissance drones are in the next layer up, either flying around or hovering over a position. The medium drones fly over them, so high that the average soldier cannot see them. They have excellent optics and can conduct recon missions or drop a mortar shell or anti-tank mine. Then there are the high-flying drones that observe, conduct EW missions or direct artillery fires, depending on the equipment they’re carrying.

Sometimes Lancets will fly across the positions hoping to draw fire. Once a defender exposes himself, his position is attacked. They can’t let the drones fly around freely, but if they engage them, they’re risking their lives. The reason his unit was under attack is that they shot down a $100k drone and electronically disrupted another one. They had to do this in order to gain air superiority. Without drones, Russia cannot effectively fire artillery. Without Russian drones, he says, Ukraine can not only defeat the Russian attacks but drive them back. With the Russian drones, they cannot conduct a general counter-attack without suffering huge losses. Drones have the same effect on the Russians but they are willing to accept their losses. Ukraine has to be very careful and only counter-attack when the circumstances are right.

It is a battle for the skies, but most of the combat isn’t between the airborne assets. The combat is between the Ukrainian ground troops and Russian drones, and Ukrainian drones and Russian ground troops. They are trying to build their own “Iron Dome” by adding anti-drone rifles (that jam the electronic signals), drones, heavy machine guns, manpads, jammers and drone detectors to their arsenal. Whoever controls the skies will have a huge advantage on the ground.

This is the author’s article…https://medium.seznam.cz/clanek/cesinaukrajine-bitva-o-nebe-aneb-zase-jsme-malem-umreli-30845

This is the Twitter thread with the same story but has images and videos showing the effects of artillery. As he said, if they weren’t so well dug in, a lot of them would be dead by now. The first post is a video showing a near miss almost collapsing their position. Then there are images of a soldier flying a drone and a machine gun used primarily for drones, not people. The sixth post shows a round that tore off the overhead cover on a bunker. No one was in that position. Maybe they were looking for a cookie. The seventh post shows a small layer of dirt blown into a trench by a nearby round. The 13th post could just be a view from their position, or it could be a trench that has collapsed due to shelling. Take a look at the image in the 16th post. I have seen so many Russian positions where trash is strewn about. Not here. Everything is orderly and there is a container for trash. This is their home until they are rotated out…

https://twitter.com/FundPerun/status/1725121353307590958

(….to be continued….)