Don's Weekly, 20 May 2024: Part 1
Good morning everybody!
We’re already in the fourth week of May this year; into the 10th year of this war (if we count all the Russian subversion activities in Ukraine: it’s even longer); plus into the third year of the Russian all-out invasion. Thus, time to put few things into their perspective.
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Perspective
Meanwhile, this war is so static that a gain or loss of just one treeline 500 meters away can bring joy or disappointment. The loss of 5 or 10 km of territory can invoke despair.
Certainly, the loss of territory is not good news but it pales in significance when compared to the larger picture of rates of losses, production trends and other strategic considerations. Ukraine's biggest concerns are the preservation of manpower, the bombing of infrastructure and the bombing of the front line troops. All other trends are in their favor.
Even when Russian advances are being turned back with great losses, life is difficult for the Ukrainian soldier on the front line, but overall events are trending in his and her favor. The mental challenge is to withstand the emotional toll over the next couple of years as these trends manifest themselves.
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Kharkiv
8,000 civilians have been evacuated from villages north of Kharkiv. The furthest Russia advanced this week was 3 km, and the furthest they’ve penetrated into Ukraine is approaching 8 km. Russian forces briefly entered Vovchansk before a Ukrainian counter attack pushed them out. The Russians have since re-entered the town. Ukraine is losing a high number of artillery pieces due to drones.
Constructed defenses are 10-12 and 20 km from the border. While the actual Russian advances are limited to two 15 km wide fronts, Syrsky said the active front has now been increased by 70 kilometers.
Alongside these limited gains, Ukrainian reports of Russian daily casualties from last week show they have increased 30-40% in comparison to previous months. The current Russian loss rate is equivalent to about 500,000 casualties a year. In the first 18 months, Russia suffered 300,000 casualties. It is inevitable that Ukrainian casualties have also increased but it is unlikely they have done so at the same rate as Russian casualties.
A group of Russians are cornered in a house. 50.252566, 36.402520…
https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1790797039720075668
A Russian patrol is unaware of a Ukrainian machine gun position. As they move towards it, the Ukrainians wait until they are at point blank range before opening fire…https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1791472261783830601
Two Russian tanks are destroyed outside Vovchansk…
https://t.me/Tsaplienko/53794
A Ukrainian rocket launcher is destroyed…
https://twitter.com/3_bm15/status/1790814407443845268
A Russian rocket launcher fires from 5 km inside Russia. 50°22'57.0"N 36°51'09.3"E…
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1790757079252124100
The 3rd Assault Brigade artillery takes out a Russian SP 120 mm mortar with a guided munition…
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1790793264464842818
A Russian squad is spotted in the open…
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1790812391854239820
A Ukrainian rocket launcher is destroyed by a Lancet…https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1791558272262033458
Vovchansk continues to be heavily shelled…
https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1790462067868365001
Ukraine believes that two missing volunteers may have been shot by Russians…https://kyivindependent.com/media-2-volunteers-in-vovchansk-reported-as-missing-allegedly-shot-by-russian-troops/
50 Russians move south, five kilometers inside Ukraine…https://x.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1790132722142150741
A soldier is back in the Kharkiv region for the third time…https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1792111345090892231
The Russian army’s concept of the exploitation phase of an offensive is to loot whatever wasn’t burned down…
https://t.me/rozvidka_noem/8675
Ukraine launched 7 airstrikes on this hospital…
https://t.me/operinform/22921
Also… https://t.me/operinform/22923
And then… https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1791912316117610518
A 12 minute video of a brief clash between the border guards and Russians on the border. Their land navigation and patrolling skills aren’t very good…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1790522290406322534
Besides reporting on the war, Constantine raised quite a bit of money for equipment and is in contact with personnel from several brigades, including brigade commanders. There are reasons why Russia built cope cages and turtle tanks. Constantine is working on anti-drone screens for the Bohdana self-propelled artillery as well as excavators. Defensive positions will help against both drones and artillery. Ukraine lost three Bohdanas in the Kiev region since the attacks began.
Constantine’s already helped other units buy excavators since one excavator can dig at the same rate as 100 men. Some of the excavators are wheeled so they can move quickly and independently between locations. Others are tracked. This means they need to be moved long distances on a trailer, but they can work inside a forest or in other rough terrain.
He has a little more tension in his voice because he was born and raised in Kharkiv and his family is still there…
https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1790394313857208663
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Western Luhansk
The Russians attacked at several points in the region but failed to gain any ground. They did lose at least 28 military vehicles while the Ukrainians lost three.
The 63rd Brigade south of Yampolivka works over Russian positions with drones…
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1790801578896580807
A Russian SPG is destroyed near Popasna. The truck escaped…
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1790793716032000054
Russian armored losses near Terny…https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1790003969252606143
A firefight in the forest near Kreminna…https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1792283138753712598
(…to be continued…)
Thank you so much for putting things in a perspective. « The mental challenge is to withstand the emotional toll over the next couple of years as these trends manifest themselves.« This is so true. Especially when Russian disinformation and Western blabla and Global South’s concerns only about itself are joining in. And press for business as usuel. Things will never be as « before ». —- Wars are fought on so many fronts. The Ukrainian industry and its production also have to be able to fonction. How to find the right balance is a major question.
Thanks Don,
Somehow I doubt that the situation is getting better for Ukrainian troops. All of the Western equipment and shells are of course helping but without a substantial improvement in the air defenses ZSU will ultimately be bombed out of its positions…