Don's Weekly, 2 September 2024: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Russia

The Ryazan power plant, 200 km south of Moscow, was set afire by hits of Ukrainian UAVs. It is the fifth largest power plant in Russia, generating 3,130 MW, and has a 320-metres-tall chimney.

Another fuel depot was hit in Kamensky, Rostov Oblast. Early after the drone attack, 2-3 storage tanks were engulfed in flames. Three days later, six tanks were on fire. When a storage tank is depressurized, the escaping vapors mix with oxygen in the atmosphere. A satellite image from August 31st.

The Zenit oil depot was hit over 1200 km away from Ukraine.

158 drones were reportedly used in one night to attack the Kashirskaya power plant in Moscow, the Konakovskaya power plant in Tver, the Konakovo gas distribution station in Tver, and the Moscow oil refinery, and a total of 15 regions, according to Russia. They said 46 drones attacked targets in Kursk, 34 in Bryansk, 28 in Voronezh and 14 in Belgorod.

Konakovo thermal power plant is the 8th largest power plant in Russia generating 2,400MW of power. The natural gas transfer plant that provides the fuel for the power plant was set on fire. The plant itself sustained some damage.

The Kashira power plant was built in 1922. It is a coal-fired plant that generates 1,910 MW. The extent of the damage is unknown. The Moscow oil refinery was also hit and set afire. At least one helicopter was used to fight the fire.

Because of the heavy drone activity, many civilian flights were delayed or canceled.

After months of attacks on the Russian energy sector, oil and fuel production are now state secrets.

350km from Ukrainian controlled territory, the Russian navy fires missiles towards Ukraine from the coast of Novorossiysk.

In the last days of the Soviet Union, Russian kleptocrats and KGB officials moved billions of dollars into European and US banks to secure their stolen money from the reach of domestic Russian politics and laws. The 2001 Patriot Act in the US required public disclosure of these transfers in banks but deliberately left out real estate dealings, so shell companies started to buy real estate and luxury goods. By 2015, 52% of Russia’s wealth was held outside Russia. From 2017-2022, $2.3 billion has been laundered in US real estate and millions more in art, jewelry and yachts. Money laundering in Canada pushed up real estate prices anywhere from 3.7% to 7.5%. Of the 2,044 units in seven Trump buildings, 703 are owned by shell companies that mask the owner’s identity. Ihor Kolomoisky was a 2019 supporter of Zelensky and later became a supporter of Russian propaganda. He was arrested a year ago for fraud and was the biggest owner of real estate in Cleveland. In 2020, Congress passed a law that gives the Treasury Department the authority to stop shell companies from laundering the assets of tax evaders, kleptocrats, terrorists and other criminals. The department just issued new rules that require more details on real estate transaction be reported, including the identities of the buyers and sellers.

Gazprom lost $6.9 billion last year and Russia hoped to sell more natural gas to China. Plans were made to build a second pipeline through Mongolia to China, shipping the gas that was sold to the west to China. But China has a stronger negotiating position and is committed to buying only a portion of what the pipeline can ship, and wants to pay just over the subsidized domestic prices. Also, Mongolia declined to fund the pipeline in their territory, which some attributed to reconsideration on China’s part. Turkmenistan has higher revenue than Russia in sales of gas and China and a pipeline between China and Turkmenistan might make better economic sense for them.

Not coincidentally, Putin is visiting Mongolia which signed a treaty to uphold International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrants, such as the ones Putin has for abducting and taking Ukrainian children out of their country. But that will not happen, much like the former president of Sudan was not arrested when he visited the ICC treaty countries of South Africa and Jordan, despite his warrants. Putin skipped a BRICS conference in South Africa, and was angered by Armenia when they joined the ICC last year, but Armenian government assured him he wouldn’t be arrested if he entered their country, highlighting the difference between words and reality.

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Ukraine

Friendly fire incidents happen on the ground and in the air. Russia shot down a few of their own planes. Last week, a Patriot battery shot down an F-16 due to poor communication. There have been many questionable decisions made by the Ukrainian air force going back to February 2022, and even more lies and non-truths in reporting events. The loss of the F-16 seems to be the final straw for the commander of the air force, though, and he was fired. The acting commander had COVID when the Russians crossed the border in 2022.

Iskander missiles landing in Kharkiv: Video 1, Video 2, and Video 3 - showing a double-tap attack to kill emergency workers responding to the first missile on this site.

Near Sumy, a stationary column of grain trucks waiting for the harvested wheat was struck by three Russian Iskander M missiles.

Five bombs hit Kharkiv last week. A 14-year-old girl was among the seven killed when a bomb hit a park. A bomb started a fire in an apartment and emergency workers tried to reach trapped civilians.

In Russia, many soldiers buy their own equipment. In Ukraine, there’s at least one soldier that bought his own tank.

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Diplomacy

Lithuania’s foreign minister says that the US and EU need to provide the weapons promised to Ukraine or prepare for war.

Serbia will spend $3 billion for purchasing 12 French-made Rafale jets. When asked about whether Serbia would share western technological secrets with Russia, the Serbian president responded, "For the first time in history Serbia has Western jets. You wish to have Serbia as a partner and then you voice suspicions?"

Even though Mongolia is a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) community, Russia was not worried about Putin being arrested on an ICC warrant while visiting the country.

Russia uses Russian, Indian, Nepalese, Chinese, Cuban and African mercenaries even though mercenary activity is against their law and punishable by up to 15 years in prison. But two Columbians fighting in the Ukrainian army were returning to their home after a refueling stop in Venezuela and the authorities there arrested them and deported them to Russia.

Do not try to find logic where there is none. Russian oil fuels and finances the war. Civilian targets would be houses, hospitals and home improvement stores named “Epicenter”.

On August 31, 1993, Soviet troops finally left Lithuania. 20,000 Soviet troops first entered the country in October 1939.

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Equipment

According to this video, 115 Russian reconnaissance drones have been killed by Ukrainian drones. Here’s a video that shows fewer of them but at a slow pace. Altitude is an issue when hunting reconnaissance drones. An Orlan drone at 2700 meters was brought down. Wild Hornets say that they are detonated by remote control. There is a report that a Lancet drone was also destroyed by a Ukrainian FPV drone.

The Scranton factory in the US increased the production of 155mm shells by 50% to 36,000 shells a month. If Ukraine’s allies had ten factories producing that many shells Ukraine would be firing twice the amount of shells it did at the height of the summer 2023 offensive.

The military police (MP’s) are despised in the Russian army because they have a fairly safe job, they give harsh punishments for minor offenses and are always looking for bribes. The MP’s have had standing orders to confiscate any vehicles that aren’t registered to the army. It hadn’t been enforced but a new commander made it a priority due to auto accidents involving Russian soldiers. Due to heavy vehicle losses, the Russian army relies on civilian vehicles much like the Ukrainian army does. One soldier says that the army replaces 10% of their losses, and five trucks carry the same people and equipment as 50 passenger cars. They fuel and repair these cars with their own money. When the MP’s arrive for confiscation, they are taking away the unit’s medevac and ammo transport vehicles. Sometimes the confiscation ends up with both sides pointing weapons at each other.

A Russian rocket-powered drone was recently shot down. It was likely a decoy as it did not have a warhead or reconnaissance equipment.

Ukraine is testing drone evacuation vehicles, remotely fired machine guns, and tracked machine gun drones.

An aviation expert provides his estimates of the Palianytsia missile’s characteristics.