Don's Weekly, 2 October 2023, Part 2
10 km northeast of Zaporizhzhia, Russia strikes a train loading Ukrainian military vehicles. Russian drones have already modified Ukrainian behavior: troops are camouflaging themselves whenever within 50km of the frontline. In this case, that was not possible. Still, some armored vehicles have installed top- and maybe smaller side screens. Artillery positions have been seen surrounded by protective screens or nets. But if a target is detected and there is a weapon in range, the target can be attacked. Camouflage remains the best protection from being attacked.
A target such as a train loading vehicles cannot be effectively camouflaged and it was attacked by an MPK glide bomb, not a drone. Trains are the best way to move vehicles over long distances (particularly tracked vehicles), because it is faster and saves wear and tear on the tracks and other components. The problem is that a train is a very obvious and so-called ‘high value target’. If it is detected and there is a weapon in range, then it can be attacked. This attack occurred just over 40 km from the front lines. That’s within the range of Russian reconnaissance drones. It’s also in range of MPK/UMPK glide bombs.
Since neither side has the capability to completely prevent each other’s drones from travelling behind each other's lines, Ukraine has a couple options. One is to load and unload their trains quicker. The problem is that with a well-organized operation it will still take about an hour for the train to arrive and load and secure this many vehicles. If spotted early enough, that’s enough time to call for an airstrike. The key is to minimize the time they can be spotted while stationary.
The other option is to unload them out of range of Russian drone detection and airstrikes. This is similar to the effect HIMARS had on Russian supply dumps. The bigger dumps had to be moved back out of range of HIMARS and the forward dumps had to be dispersed into smaller depots so not as much would be lost to a single round. Ukraine also has to move its bigger operations out of range of airstrikes and make sure their personnel and equipment that are in range are dispersed so they won’t lose as much in a single strike. 47.901928, 35.351129...
https://twitter.com/3_bm15/status/1708196690539257872
About 6 km northwest of Kopani, a BMP-3 is destroyed by a Ukrainian drone…
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1708241701406491004
Why does it appear like if the Ukrainian counteroffensive is ‘stalled’? Because it run into big complexes of trenches, covered trenches, tunnels, covered firing positions and bunkers underneath fighting positions. The one for which there was most bitter fighting the last two weeks is located immediately north-west of Novoprokopivka, at 47.43065839083235, 35.824028791999794. This is a Twitter-thread about it:
A reflection by a Ukrainian soldier as he walked 10 km to the rear…https://www.facebook.com/oleg.sentsov/posts/pfbid02i5kpa4zLJGuKom7RKk9yEU5PUWWiedkxGipUK4FKjv9hWcuwEHihFLCLeAJ1PKwxl
Kherson
The islands in the Dnieper river are anchorages for boats, observation posts, supply depots, and transshipment points for the wounded. Many of these islands are swampy, even more so since the Kakhovka dam was destroyed, and there are mines in the river and on land. Ukrainians liken the combat to the fighting in the Mekong delta of Vietnam. Russia and Ukraine are fighting over these islands and they change hands constantly. Ukraine would not say how many of the islands they control.
Ukraine says they’re doing everything they can to distract the Russians with their operations along the river so the Russians won’t send more units as desperately needed reinforcements to the Robotyne area. The public crossing at Kozachi Laheri was a distraction to help protect another crossing and Ukraine lost men in that effort. They also killed and captured a lot of Russians and eventually connected up with the beachhead at the Antonivka bridge. They say that a major operation to cross the river in force won’t be possible until conditions change…https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2023/09/27/7421567/
The Gepard remains effective against drones...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1706779385963954209
A report that a Russian recon/sabotage team was destroyed by a drone…
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1708224174626390437
Crimea
Ukraine said that Russia’s Black Sea fleet’s chief, Adm. Viktor Sokolov, was killed in the attack on a headquarters building last week. After Russia released several videos of Sokolov, some current, some from before the attack, Ukraine said they would seek to clarify their information…
Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said that responding to Ukraine’s claims about the commander’s killing was “exclusively the prerogative” of the Ministry of Defense and that the Kremlin had “nothing to say here.”
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/09/26 ... raine-news
Media Coverage
I’ve read some very good stories by the New York Times regarding individual lives in Ukraine and how the war has impacted them. They’ve done a couple stories about battles for villages a week or so after and the interviews with the combatants were interesting and insightful. But here is an example of an effort to explain the war by measuring territorial gain. I understand that some military concepts can be difficult to understand, but you should consult experts that also understand the issue. This author of this article does not understand the difference between maneuver and attrition warfare, but I encourage you to read it as I try and make a point…https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-map-front-line.html
I’ve read several articles by this publication regarding the war and found them to be consistently intelligent and informative. This author understands the issues and does a good job explaining them. There is no need for me to interpret. I encourage you to read…https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/30/2196246/-Ukraine-Update-Data-shows-Ukraine-is-laying-down-the-heaviest-firestorm-of-artillery-in-the-war?fbclid=IwAR02bvyyEgX_RaaALtnzaW2yCCvPuKWiE-a6uOM06Di932uO14qPtmLOHR8
Equipment
Ukraine publicized their testing of an underwater drone that can travel 1000 km for strike, transport, or reconnaissance missions…
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1706334168823603227
Given Ukraine’s successes with special operations to date, a functional vehicle of this nature may put them on par with the extremely effective Italian frogmen of WW2…
Drones are effective for both sides. This is how one Russian tank crew is trying to cope…
https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1706092456427606210
In the third comment, a report that when Russia tried to hijack Ukrainian drones and hack their point of origin, Ukraine countered with a self-destruct operation when the drone doesn't return to the sender's location...
https://twitter.com/HeIene_d_PM/status/1707166948159865073
Here is a report of a trap drone that was “safely” brought down near Khalino airbase east of Kursk. At some point when it was handled it exploded, killing and wounding several people…https://news.liga.net/ua/politics/news/na-rossiyskom-aerodrome-halino-ukrainskiy-dron-udaril-po-rukovodstvu-aviapolka-gur
Ukrainians training in Sweden on RBS-70 MANPADS, which launches a laser-guided anti-aircraft missiles that travels at Mach 2 for up to 9 km…
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1707132020114047092
Switzerland is selling 25 Leopards to Rheinmetall as long as they don’t go to Ukraine…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1706680556438646831
Dozens of Russian tank shells were sent without explosives. English subtitles in the second post…Dozens of Russian tanks shells were sent without TNT...
https://twitter.com/doritoeubanks/status/1706956466765337043
By measuring, identifying and mapping specific radars, Russia is able to determine Ukraine’s air defenses and the best way to attack and pentrate them…
Residents in the Kyiv area were storing a Tor air defense system that the Russians left behind in the initial days of the invasion. That ended when the police found out and confiscated it…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1707741397942501593
Conscription
In September, 2022, Russia started to conscript up to 300,000 troops. In the spring of 2023, 147,000 troops were called up. This week, Putin signed a decree to call up 130,000 citizens. Also, to prevent evasion of conscription and general flight from the country, Russia passed new laws making it more difficult to leave the country:
The level of training of these conscripts will depend on Russia’s need for immediate reinforcements in Ukraine. If the need is dire, then, based on history, they will be sent there without training. If Russia has the luxury of time and plenty of personnel then they will receive some level of training. But the days of new well-trained troops, such as Airborne, Naval Infantry and Spetsnaz are over.
(to be completed in the Part 3….)
Regarding conscription:
troops called up this week are for mandatory service not for the mobilization (officially), they might be used in the rear (in Russia proper) and they can be coerced into signing contracts. But they are different from the mobilized troops from last fall.
Very informative thank you so much