This is great because the remaining aircraft have to fly more and therefore need more maintenance, so there is a risk of more accidents. This should reduce the number of missiles fired dramatically, because the ratio is not proportional.
Fingers crossed the more planes destructed the less people are going to die.
It was an attack on Russia's nuclear deterrence forces..it Mark's Ukraine as a feral nation, clearly trying to drag Russia into full-on war with NATO...for what? Ukraine will not survive that exchange..it's a dangerous escalation with no immediate relief for Ukraine, only more risk.
For some reason, the very word "escalation" always makes your pants wet. While the Ukrainians don't care about the opinion of the Russians, they continue to fight.
Yes, spectacular like the Israeli raid on Entebbe (1976). Nobody thought that the Israelis could pull-off such a long-distance assault and rescue. Seemingly, whoever thought that the Ukrainians could pull-off a stunt like this? They did it anyway! Congratulations. Wow!
Well, I guess we can kiss New START goodbye. No sane person is going to comply with nuclear transparency after this. It doesn't help that Trump practically boasted that he knew about the attack beforehand on Truth Social.
No sane people will trust Trump and also nobody trust Russia.
If russia can destroy world 10 times or 3 times it is not important. And Putin knows that russia can be also destroyed if 2 times (UK, France) or 20 times with USA it is not important. Important is that Putin is afraiding about his life, many family members are in West, India and China don;t want nuclear war and..
Okay, but it's not just Trump and not just Russia. The US just signaled to the entire world that any transparent nuclear asset (like parking your strategic bombers outdoors rather than in hangars) is fair game to be hit by US proxies. Do you think anyone is going to comply with nuclear transparency now?
US proxies, you are funny, only person responsible for that attack is Putin by starting the war. Is Putin US agent? Logic would advice so: so far he managed to got more states to NATO, reduce Russian military power, convinced europe to give more money to their armies... and russians are so stupud nation, they let him alive. Trully parody of functional country.
Well you blame US, as always, russia fans are trying to blame victim card. But russians were never vicfims of anyone but their rulers. Your whole point is imvalid without ralising it. If nuclear transparency is threatened, it is because od russian people tolerating their corrupted leaders. Not because of USA, not because of anyone else.
UA is not now a USA proxy, maybe at the beginning some people can thought so, but UA is fighing because of UA not because of USA or EU and for sure, not for Trump. You should read some history what Russia did in past to UA that they don't want to be again under your command
And you did it also to other nations Czechoslovakia 1968 and that's why we hate you.
To you point Strategic bombers are past, we have missiles, submarines... and mostly nobody will attact russia to destroy or gain some areas. UA is just defending.
Fine but it doesn't matter what you call them, Ukraine is a country that is funded, armed and supported by the USA. Put your emotions and tribalism aside for a minute and think pragmatically. If you were a head of state and your main adversary started blowing transparent assets, would you continue being transparent, or start concealing them?
Russia was never transparent. If these bombers weren't used against UA, UA will not attack them. So it's russia problem that they attacked UA and that they are using strategic bombers against UA.
For UA it was a good and logical attack. for us a supporter of UA it was also good attack. Yes for Russia it was bad and you should protect your strategic weapons better( much better will be stop war and go away from UA).
Between RU and NATO nothing changed. We will not attack you because you have many other nuclear missiles and you don;t attack us because we have also nuclear weapons and also much more planes so convential war will be bad for russia.
I did ask you to put your emotions and tribalism aside for a moment. Are you not able to do this? If you simply don't want any kind of mutual restrictions and transparency on nuclear arsenals that's fine, but you should be upfront about it.
Ukraine is not a proxy in the sense of acting in a patron’s interests rather than its own. It is true that its degree of dependence on Western help means that it would hesitate about doing anything that would cause that support to be withdrawn and true that this latest exploit is not in that category. The degree of dependence does not prove - or in all the circumstances even suggest - that specific approval would have been sought. This has been denied, but I accept that governments do not always tell the truth. Even if Trump did agree because he’s so pissed off by Putin that would not make the episode a breach of international law or an atrocity. It might perhaps, as you suggest, create a problem for future arms negotiations but these are very complex and I would think that ways could be found around specific problems if only there were once again some good will
"Ukraine is not a proxy in the sense of acting in a patron’s interests rather than its own."
Well this is true. The USA is notorious for arming people it doesn't control and why Americans have been killed by their own assets on more than one occasion.
Russia just lost some bomber planes in the context of a war Russia started against a non-nuclear state.
Who cares ? Absolutely nobody.
It should deal with it. It would be like going fubbar because some Western countries lost equipment it could fit with nuclear weapons (say French Rafale) during some neo colonial war.
Truth be told he more Putin tries to pull his nuclear chantage card, the less support he will receive from the like of China.
U.S. proxies ^__^ yes... the kind of proxy that you acquire by accident because they end up doing something both convenient and inconvenient for you whilst fighting for their survival in accordance with international law
Attacking civilians is not in accordance with international law, but USA does it on a daily basis. Let's not hear any preaching from Americans about "laws", it's intellectually dishonest and contemptible.
That was fun. I would say much more then I could have expected. The every aspect of it. By the way a perfect example of matching needs, resources, and every aspect of the achieving the purpose. The approach that is quite lacking on a general level in Ukraine (in terms of approach to war planning and engineering), meticulous calculation of what needs to be done, planning and execution.
On the one hand, even a few planes destroyed is already a great success. On the other hand, such a number of drones should have destroyed and damaged all the planes that were at these air bases. Even if we divide this declared number into 116 drones involved in all air bases, the drones should have destroyed more than ten planes. I haven't seen a single video yet where the Russians have shot down even one drone.
Thanks Tom for the evaluation of TDA against the VKS DA bases. The Ukrainian long range/OWAD strikes today on other VKS AB with Su 34 FB would be interesting to know the effective damage and loses if there are.
Can aircraft of this size be placed in hardened shelters? If not the manned bomber / ALCM launcher is obsolete.
No-one would have foreseen the issue though, as, in Cold War doctrine, the "air breathing leg of the nuclear triad" wasn't supposed be survivable. That was the SSBN's role.
But obviously, the Kremlin was too flat footed to see that the context of the employment of bombers had completely changed. Kind of like with the wasting of the Moskva, hard to tell if it's incompetence or indifference.
The USA and Russia store their strategic bombers outside in compliance with New START, so the other side can visually see them. Obviously, New START just went out the window lol.
Don't you think one good result would be Russia becoming paranoid about its own freight transport and paralyzing its own logistics? this would have a big impact on economy.
they've been about destruction of Ukraine and genocide of Ukrainians the whole time, this would be nothing new.
I was thinking about the measures like stopping cargo vehicles near all their own airbases. Like what's happening now in Irkutsk oblast. It feels like a safety measure, but also means no cargo moves at the time.
Of course they will. Spreading paranoia in Russia was part of the attack. And yes, the transport system will now have a lot of unscheduled inspections. But don’t worry, if anything falls from a truck somebody will take care of it.
The part that is the best is that the UA drone operators didn't rush. Those drones just hovered up, and set down perfectly on the target at the most dangerous spot to a plane. Even a damaged plane here is likely a near certain write-off with that going on. This was Clark Field, not Pearl Harbor.
I have one idea. If "the spider web" was the strict command to SBU to attack something, then this operation was perfect. Because the high command provides a stupid action. SBU and another Ukrainian forces can provide a "powerful strike" and this is a stupid action. Zelensky was stupid to make this offer. SBU is more powerful than Zelensky and Ermak are suggesting. Any other theories are also available. According to the Ukrainian legislation, all military operations must be approved by the President.
Seriously appreciate your work. We have not always agreed, but from our discussion about Anthony Cordesman many, oh scary so many, moons ago on ACIG your perspective is always on the mark. Thank you
Excellent report - thank you for sticking to straight hard facts - greatly appreciated. Interesting about the numbers of FMC bombers. I struggle to understand how even for the Keystone cops in Moscow this is not terrifying. We all know Mardan and fat Victor S will bluff and bluster like the demented parrots they are but surely some where in the Kremlin the rouble is dropping that they have no strategic air power anymore? How will this affect the coming super dooper almighty coming summer offensive?
Thanks guys for covering the story and sticking to observable facts. Maybe y'all know what really happened, but perhaps the drone hysteria on the East Coast with stuff flying over bases last year came from an operation like this.
This is great because the remaining aircraft have to fly more and therefore need more maintenance, so there is a risk of more accidents. This should reduce the number of missiles fired dramatically, because the ratio is not proportional.
Fingers crossed the more planes destructed the less people are going to die.
hope its another strike in the psychological war and russians will realize there is a war
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/operatsiyu-pavutyna-reaktsiyi-rosiyan/33431512.html
and yes destroying iscanders and MIG31s would be perfect and appreciated by all UA citizens }at least 99% of them to be honest)
As few as six aircraft can launch up to 80 cruise missiles. This won't have any measurable effect on Russian strikes.
Maybe not today, tomorrow this month..., but sooner or later they will be worn out (les planes more weight per plane, same hours in total ...)
And yes it's more propaganda action.
But hey look russia is superpower with super weapons and second army and has natural right to tell us what, when and how to do
It was an attack on Russia's nuclear deterrence forces..it Mark's Ukraine as a feral nation, clearly trying to drag Russia into full-on war with NATO...for what? Ukraine will not survive that exchange..it's a dangerous escalation with no immediate relief for Ukraine, only more risk.
For some reason, the very word "escalation" always makes your pants wet. While the Ukrainians don't care about the opinion of the Russians, they continue to fight.
Gibberish. Do you have a point to make?
Yea and trains can transport nuclear heads from storage so it's launch spot also as a part of strategic nuclear...
Based on your logic Iskander or Kalibr launchers should be left to kill Ukrainians because they can carry nukes as well.
And I promise this is my last reaction to you,don't want to waste my time. Enjoy yours
and here it is, another unsane escalation attack at Islkander lauchers https://t.me/operativnoZSU/182787
Great work more needed, good luck to UA
Ukraine is really again a "stupor mundi". Glory to Ukraine!
Yes, spectacular like the Israeli raid on Entebbe (1976). Nobody thought that the Israelis could pull-off such a long-distance assault and rescue. Seemingly, whoever thought that the Ukrainians could pull-off a stunt like this? They did it anyway! Congratulations. Wow!
Well, I guess we can kiss New START goodbye. No sane person is going to comply with nuclear transparency after this. It doesn't help that Trump practically boasted that he knew about the attack beforehand on Truth Social.
No sane people will trust Trump and also nobody trust Russia.
If russia can destroy world 10 times or 3 times it is not important. And Putin knows that russia can be also destroyed if 2 times (UK, France) or 20 times with USA it is not important. Important is that Putin is afraiding about his life, many family members are in West, India and China don;t want nuclear war and..
Okay, but it's not just Trump and not just Russia. The US just signaled to the entire world that any transparent nuclear asset (like parking your strategic bombers outdoors rather than in hangars) is fair game to be hit by US proxies. Do you think anyone is going to comply with nuclear transparency now?
US proxies, you are funny, only person responsible for that attack is Putin by starting the war. Is Putin US agent? Logic would advice so: so far he managed to got more states to NATO, reduce Russian military power, convinced europe to give more money to their armies... and russians are so stupud nation, they let him alive. Trully parody of functional country.
Interesting but has exactly nothing to do with my point.
Well you blame US, as always, russia fans are trying to blame victim card. But russians were never vicfims of anyone but their rulers. Your whole point is imvalid without ralising it. If nuclear transparency is threatened, it is because od russian people tolerating their corrupted leaders. Not because of USA, not because of anyone else.
UA is not now a USA proxy, maybe at the beginning some people can thought so, but UA is fighing because of UA not because of USA or EU and for sure, not for Trump. You should read some history what Russia did in past to UA that they don't want to be again under your command
And you did it also to other nations Czechoslovakia 1968 and that's why we hate you.
To you point Strategic bombers are past, we have missiles, submarines... and mostly nobody will attact russia to destroy or gain some areas. UA is just defending.
Fine but it doesn't matter what you call them, Ukraine is a country that is funded, armed and supported by the USA. Put your emotions and tribalism aside for a minute and think pragmatically. If you were a head of state and your main adversary started blowing transparent assets, would you continue being transparent, or start concealing them?
Russia was never transparent. If these bombers weren't used against UA, UA will not attack them. So it's russia problem that they attacked UA and that they are using strategic bombers against UA.
For UA it was a good and logical attack. for us a supporter of UA it was also good attack. Yes for Russia it was bad and you should protect your strategic weapons better( much better will be stop war and go away from UA).
Between RU and NATO nothing changed. We will not attack you because you have many other nuclear missiles and you don;t attack us because we have also nuclear weapons and also much more planes so convential war will be bad for russia.
I did ask you to put your emotions and tribalism aside for a moment. Are you not able to do this? If you simply don't want any kind of mutual restrictions and transparency on nuclear arsenals that's fine, but you should be upfront about it.
Ukraine is not a proxy in the sense of acting in a patron’s interests rather than its own. It is true that its degree of dependence on Western help means that it would hesitate about doing anything that would cause that support to be withdrawn and true that this latest exploit is not in that category. The degree of dependence does not prove - or in all the circumstances even suggest - that specific approval would have been sought. This has been denied, but I accept that governments do not always tell the truth. Even if Trump did agree because he’s so pissed off by Putin that would not make the episode a breach of international law or an atrocity. It might perhaps, as you suggest, create a problem for future arms negotiations but these are very complex and I would think that ways could be found around specific problems if only there were once again some good will
"Ukraine is not a proxy in the sense of acting in a patron’s interests rather than its own."
Well this is true. The USA is notorious for arming people it doesn't control and why Americans have been killed by their own assets on more than one occasion.
Russia just lost some bomber planes in the context of a war Russia started against a non-nuclear state.
Who cares ? Absolutely nobody.
It should deal with it. It would be like going fubbar because some Western countries lost equipment it could fit with nuclear weapons (say French Rafale) during some neo colonial war.
Truth be told he more Putin tries to pull his nuclear chantage card, the less support he will receive from the like of China.
U.S. proxies ^__^ yes... the kind of proxy that you acquire by accident because they end up doing something both convenient and inconvenient for you whilst fighting for their survival in accordance with international law
Attacking civilians is not in accordance with international law, but USA does it on a daily basis. Let's not hear any preaching from Americans about "laws", it's intellectually dishonest and contemptible.
Yes attacking civilians is against international law.
I am not American. I live far away from there.
Ukraine has the right to defend its turf under international law.
IMO, the US is only using Ukraine as a proxy since the war started. They are just reacting and making the most of the situation like most countries.
They didn’t before. This attack simply showed that the nuclear logistics system can and will be attacked.
You're an imbecile.
Great comeback.
Нашёл свою любовь в РФ? Классика!
Да, я "консультант" НАТО в Москве. И моя жена — переводчик. Встретились зимой 2021 году
Даже есть специальный термин - "полезный идиот"
Вот, я уже боролся 16 лет за вас. Будьте благодарны.
Erm... who exactly still cares about the START?
What kind of _serious_ nuclear-disarmament-negotiations are run, lately?
And, since when should anybody care about Dumpf's babbling?
Як же це смачно, знімаю капелюха перед СБУ.
Напевно всі спец служби світу аплодують стоячи, і глузують з фсб, як шоумен витер ноги об кгбешника))))!
Das ist sehr lecker.
That was fun. I would say much more then I could have expected. The every aspect of it. By the way a perfect example of matching needs, resources, and every aspect of the achieving the purpose. The approach that is quite lacking on a general level in Ukraine (in terms of approach to war planning and engineering), meticulous calculation of what needs to be done, planning and execution.
On the one hand, even a few planes destroyed is already a great success. On the other hand, such a number of drones should have destroyed and damaged all the planes that were at these air bases. Even if we divide this declared number into 116 drones involved in all air bases, the drones should have destroyed more than ten planes. I haven't seen a single video yet where the Russians have shot down even one drone.
I take the analysis here to be early and conservative. The number is probably higher.
Thanks Tom for the evaluation of TDA against the VKS DA bases. The Ukrainian long range/OWAD strikes today on other VKS AB with Su 34 FB would be interesting to know the effective damage and loses if there are.
Can aircraft of this size be placed in hardened shelters? If not the manned bomber / ALCM launcher is obsolete.
No-one would have foreseen the issue though, as, in Cold War doctrine, the "air breathing leg of the nuclear triad" wasn't supposed be survivable. That was the SSBN's role.
But obviously, the Kremlin was too flat footed to see that the context of the employment of bombers had completely changed. Kind of like with the wasting of the Moskva, hard to tell if it's incompetence or indifference.
The USA and Russia store their strategic bombers outside in compliance with New START, so the other side can visually see them. Obviously, New START just went out the window lol.
The US is not required by SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty) to store nuclear bombers outside hardened aircraft shelters.
SALT agreements focused on limiting the number and types of strategic nuclear weapons, not the specific storage methods.
Please try not to spread misinformation
My understanding of New START is that visual inspection via satellite cannot be impeded. However if you have sources contrary to this understanding please share them. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2021/690523/EPRS_BRI(2021)690523_EN.pdf
LOL!
I am looking forward to Russian missile submarines sailing on the surface so satellites can see them.
You are reading meanings into this statement that do not exist
I see.
I am afraid spreading misinformation is their job.
I thought Trump was keen on renewing non-proliferation? Then again, the rest of the world's probably saying "stuff that" right now
He'll be interested if someone pays him to be interested.
This generally successful ingenious operation will likely make a good movie one day.
Don't you think one good result would be Russia becoming paranoid about its own freight transport and paralyzing its own logistics? this would have a big impact on economy.
Can the Russians (those in charge) get any more paranoid - but to instigate a genocide of Ukraine, because 'that's a mortal threat for Russia'?
they've been about destruction of Ukraine and genocide of Ukrainians the whole time, this would be nothing new.
I was thinking about the measures like stopping cargo vehicles near all their own airbases. Like what's happening now in Irkutsk oblast. It feels like a safety measure, but also means no cargo moves at the time.
or at least what's said to be happening in Irkutsk.
https://x.com/Exilenova_plus/status/1929432487077224778
As far as I could see this already happens.
Of course they will. Spreading paranoia in Russia was part of the attack. And yes, the transport system will now have a lot of unscheduled inspections. But don’t worry, if anything falls from a truck somebody will take care of it.
The part that is the best is that the UA drone operators didn't rush. Those drones just hovered up, and set down perfectly on the target at the most dangerous spot to a plane. Even a damaged plane here is likely a near certain write-off with that going on. This was Clark Field, not Pearl Harbor.
It would be like someone driving down from Canada to Shreveport and launching a drone attack on the B52s at Barksdale AFB.
I have one idea. If "the spider web" was the strict command to SBU to attack something, then this operation was perfect. Because the high command provides a stupid action. SBU and another Ukrainian forces can provide a "powerful strike" and this is a stupid action. Zelensky was stupid to make this offer. SBU is more powerful than Zelensky and Ermak are suggesting. Any other theories are also available. According to the Ukrainian legislation, all military operations must be approved by the President.
Seriously appreciate your work. We have not always agreed, but from our discussion about Anthony Cordesman many, oh scary so many, moons ago on ACIG your perspective is always on the mark. Thank you
Excellent report - thank you for sticking to straight hard facts - greatly appreciated. Interesting about the numbers of FMC bombers. I struggle to understand how even for the Keystone cops in Moscow this is not terrifying. We all know Mardan and fat Victor S will bluff and bluster like the demented parrots they are but surely some where in the Kremlin the rouble is dropping that they have no strategic air power anymore? How will this affect the coming super dooper almighty coming summer offensive?
Thanks guys for covering the story and sticking to observable facts. Maybe y'all know what really happened, but perhaps the drone hysteria on the East Coast with stuff flying over bases last year came from an operation like this.