"The International Monetary Fund predicts that the Russian economy will slow down threefold, from 3.9% growth this year to 1.3% next year. This is three and a half times less than in developed countries . . .."
Umm, which developed countries? IMF forecasts for 2025:
Germany 0.0%
Japan 0.3%
UK 1.1%
France 1.1%
Canada 1.3%
U.S. 2.8%
Hard to see where you are getting 3.5x. The Russian growth forecast seems better than other developed countries except the U.S.
Of course that's just the IMF forecasts. We'll see what actually happens.
That's exactly it. This is a competition of who can suffer more and for the longest. My money is on the Russians, ESPECIALLY if the Trump team decides to pivot to a trade war against China. It is possible for the USA to outmuscle Russia or China, but not both at the same time. If Trump tightens the screws on China, Russia will likely offer the same help China did to them, which is nothing.
Sorry, that makes no sense. I live in Ukraine and I know the reason why there is the generational gap. You can hardly plan for family if your parents earn $15/month and you have no prospect to find a job for yourself. While an apartment costs $2000 (10 years of work for $15/month, spending nothing on food) and credits are at 30% rate.
An what about all the wars before? Look at Germany and the 30 years war. From 16-17 millions to 10 millions). Children aren't born only in 20-25 years age range of the parents. Sorry, but in my eyes that is just a myth.
Yes and no. If one believes the 'echo' theory, one should also look in the European history which is full of wars and those all together would have it's consequences. Remember please, the long time of peace before WW I was uncommon to European history.
My point is, that the biggest influence is by the change of the last 50 years, where it became normal to have small families by statistics (!) as part of change in socities for several reasons including ever growing urbanization.
But using it historically backwards is no real explanation, but just producing myths.
In that chase you are wrong as our Western explanation doesn't fit the Ukrainian reality. If you check your own link, you see that the echo is less severe than WWII. Hence the next echo should be even less, but it is far worse.
Reason for that is also that urbanisation happened different there in comparison to the West due to collectivism that got enhanced by Holodomor.
Phones don't follow the price of the Ruble. So when a Russian soldier needs to replace his phone, or buy a new battery, he learns everything he needs, or want to know, about Ruble exchange rates. A Ruble bought 0.082 worth of Yuan a year ago, today it buys around 0.65. That's a big story no one seems to have pointed out.
I shouldn't have used hard numbers. The point is that a Russian's (soldier's) buying power continues to decline. Of course, inflation his hitting everyone. But it's getting worse for Russia based on these conversion rates.
Yes, the exchange rate with the yuan matters a lot more here than the exchange rate with the dollar. My own phone is Chinese, which I'm ever more grateful for after finding out western phones have a tendency to be exploded.
They feel it in prices of food already because many kind of food is imported (Yes, big mighty Russia is not able to produce e.g. enough eggs, butter, potatoes, veggies and fruits, ...)
What I find amusing is Putin has a woman at the Central Bank. I'm sure she's explained to him 6 ways to Sunday that Russia will not economically survive a war with Ukraine. But he pats her on the head and says, you're just a woman, you don't understand the bigger picture. Just focus on your interest rates and stuff. Us men will fix it in the end.
Elvira Nabiulina is pretty big shot în Russia. She has saved the economy and she does the finger pointing, not Putin. Shoigu, Gerasimov went and came back but she was not deomted even one inch.
They pointed fingers? No one points fingers in public, not even Putin. Why should she be demoted? She does a good job. My point isn't about that. A man wouldn't want her job because he'd be afraid of becoming the fall-guy. That job is a minefield, just like everywhere else. I believe she wanted to resign in the beginning. My point is that she's easier to ignore by the regime because she's a woman. They don't take her as seriously as they would a man. That's their problem (and Russia's), not hers.
I think you should talk to some actual Russians before making statements like this. Nabiulina is widely respected in Russia for navigating the country through the 2014 sanctions (when the country was significantly weaker and more vulnerable to sanctions).
You clearly don't know much about Nabullina! She's a Tatar, tough as nails, and considered by many the world's best central banker. She tried to resign when the war started, and Putin had to beg her to stay on. Putin goes to her with hat in hand. She's probably the most respected member of his government, and calls her own shots.
HI. Yes, I'm no expert. I think I said that somewhere, that she tried to resign. I don't disagree with anything you wrote. I am only pointing out that the Putin regime is very masculine and, though they certainly respect her, in the end, they think they know better what will happen in the end.
And all food needs to be transported to the urban centres as well, which are far away from production. That transport is currently in fierce competition against transport for military purposes plus Ukraine creates an artificial demand by destruction of every transport vehicle near the front line.
One presumes Kellogg's about face on Ukraine is a direct result of wanting to get a position with the Trump Administration where during Trump's first term he served in several positions.
Although I suppose his previous statements may have also had 'ulterior' motivations.
However, considering that he testified that Trump resisted staff recommendations during the infamous January 6th Capitol 'riots' to take steps to quell them he undoubtedly needed to 'patch things up' by getting back in step with the 'Strong Trump/Weak Biden' meme.
As to Ukraine agreeing to any cessation of armed conflict on current lines that envisions regaining its lost territory diplomatically, I can't believe anyone would ever believe that possible.
Russia wants the resources and presumably will rebuild/repair the damaged indutries in the region and will have no desire or real incentive to give them back.
"The International Monetary Fund predicts that the Russian economy will slow down threefold, from 3.9% growth this year to 1.3% next year. This is three and a half times less than in developed countries . . .."
Umm, which developed countries? IMF forecasts for 2025:
Germany 0.0%
Japan 0.3%
UK 1.1%
France 1.1%
Canada 1.3%
U.S. 2.8%
Hard to see where you are getting 3.5x. The Russian growth forecast seems better than other developed countries except the U.S.
Of course that's just the IMF forecasts. We'll see what actually happens.
That's exactly it. This is a competition of who can suffer more and for the longest. My money is on the Russians, ESPECIALLY if the Trump team decides to pivot to a trade war against China. It is possible for the USA to outmuscle Russia or China, but not both at the same time. If Trump tightens the screws on China, Russia will likely offer the same help China did to them, which is nothing.
A comparision just by percentage is misleading, as it depends on the base size. As example 3% of 100 billions is different to 3% of 10 billions.
>> Due to heavy losses in WW2, there are very few people in that age group
- That makes no sense. WW2 was 70 years ago.
80 years ??
Today’s 18-25 year-olds are the great-grandchildren of the WWII generation. So I imagine this is a continued echo of that.
Nope, it's rather the direct result of poverty of 1990s.
It's a demographic echo from WW2. The 1990s is an additional effect that made it worse.
https://x.com/M0nstas/status/1603449178352500738
You see the echo at 42-59 y.o.
It has nothing to do with <25 y.o.
If there are few people at 45 then there might be fewer people at 25. WW1 and the Holodomor also had an impact.
Sorry, that makes no sense. I live in Ukraine and I know the reason why there is the generational gap. You can hardly plan for family if your parents earn $15/month and you have no prospect to find a job for yourself. While an apartment costs $2000 (10 years of work for $15/month, spending nothing on food) and credits are at 30% rate.
An what about all the wars before? Look at Germany and the 30 years war. From 16-17 millions to 10 millions). Children aren't born only in 20-25 years age range of the parents. Sorry, but in my eyes that is just a myth.
That far ago it smoothes out at some point, as there are other main factors kicking in as well.
Yes and no. If one believes the 'echo' theory, one should also look in the European history which is full of wars and those all together would have it's consequences. Remember please, the long time of peace before WW I was uncommon to European history.
My point is, that the biggest influence is by the change of the last 50 years, where it became normal to have small families by statistics (!) as part of change in socities for several reasons including ever growing urbanization.
But using it historically backwards is no real explanation, but just producing myths.
Dear Don,
In that chase you are wrong as our Western explanation doesn't fit the Ukrainian reality. If you check your own link, you see that the echo is less severe than WWII. Hence the next echo should be even less, but it is far worse.
Reason for that is also that urbanisation happened different there in comparison to the West due to collectivism that got enhanced by Holodomor.
"inflation rose again: up to 0.37%". Do you mean 37% or is this weekly inflation?
As written this is a weekly inflation which is already pretty high by my judgment
Phones don't follow the price of the Ruble. So when a Russian soldier needs to replace his phone, or buy a new battery, he learns everything he needs, or want to know, about Ruble exchange rates. A Ruble bought 0.082 worth of Yuan a year ago, today it buys around 0.65. That's a big story no one seems to have pointed out.
You probably mean today a ruble buys 0.065, (actally it is 0.069 right now), which is also a decline. But less than the dollar ruble exchange rate
I shouldn't have used hard numbers. The point is that a Russian's (soldier's) buying power continues to decline. Of course, inflation his hitting everyone. But it's getting worse for Russia based on these conversion rates.
But that's already included in the inflation rate, as it measures the prices in the local currency.
Yes, the exchange rate with the yuan matters a lot more here than the exchange rate with the dollar. My own phone is Chinese, which I'm ever more grateful for after finding out western phones have a tendency to be exploded.
They feel it in prices of food already because many kind of food is imported (Yes, big mighty Russia is not able to produce e.g. enough eggs, butter, potatoes, veggies and fruits, ...)
What I find amusing is Putin has a woman at the Central Bank. I'm sure she's explained to him 6 ways to Sunday that Russia will not economically survive a war with Ukraine. But he pats her on the head and says, you're just a woman, you don't understand the bigger picture. Just focus on your interest rates and stuff. Us men will fix it in the end.
Elvira Nabiulina is pretty big shot în Russia. She has saved the economy and she does the finger pointing, not Putin. Shoigu, Gerasimov went and came back but she was not deomted even one inch.
They pointed fingers? No one points fingers in public, not even Putin. Why should she be demoted? She does a good job. My point isn't about that. A man wouldn't want her job because he'd be afraid of becoming the fall-guy. That job is a minefield, just like everywhere else. I believe she wanted to resign in the beginning. My point is that she's easier to ignore by the regime because she's a woman. They don't take her as seriously as they would a man. That's their problem (and Russia's), not hers.
I think you should talk to some actual Russians before making statements like this. Nabiulina is widely respected in Russia for navigating the country through the 2014 sanctions (when the country was significantly weaker and more vulnerable to sanctions).
You clearly don't know much about Nabullina! She's a Tatar, tough as nails, and considered by many the world's best central banker. She tried to resign when the war started, and Putin had to beg her to stay on. Putin goes to her with hat in hand. She's probably the most respected member of his government, and calls her own shots.
HI. Yes, I'm no expert. I think I said that somewhere, that she tried to resign. I don't disagree with anything you wrote. I am only pointing out that the Putin regime is very masculine and, though they certainly respect her, in the end, they think they know better what will happen in the end.
And all food needs to be transported to the urban centres as well, which are far away from production. That transport is currently in fierce competition against transport for military purposes plus Ukraine creates an artificial demand by destruction of every transport vehicle near the front line.
Thanks
One presumes Kellogg's about face on Ukraine is a direct result of wanting to get a position with the Trump Administration where during Trump's first term he served in several positions.
Although I suppose his previous statements may have also had 'ulterior' motivations.
However, considering that he testified that Trump resisted staff recommendations during the infamous January 6th Capitol 'riots' to take steps to quell them he undoubtedly needed to 'patch things up' by getting back in step with the 'Strong Trump/Weak Biden' meme.
As to Ukraine agreeing to any cessation of armed conflict on current lines that envisions regaining its lost territory diplomatically, I can't believe anyone would ever believe that possible.
Russia wants the resources and presumably will rebuild/repair the damaged indutries in the region and will have no desire or real incentive to give them back.