Don's Weekly, 19 May 2025: Part 2

by Donald Hill (with 'few additions' by Tom Cooper)

(…continued from Part 1…)

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Toretsk

This battle is meanwhile making so much sense, that it cannot but be commanded by the Glavcom Syrsky - in person. Why? Because it’s beginning to remind of Bakhmut in February 2023.

For example: central Toretsk is bombarded by Ukrainian drones and Russian shelling, alike. More Ukrainian drones hunt Russian infantry from the center of Toretsk to one kilometer north of the city. An ATGM is aimed at a Ukrainian position. More footage of the entirely pointless, suicidal Ukrainian assault into Toretsk on May 8th. Syrsky must have been disappointed because it looks like at least two Ukrainian soldiers were brazen enough to not only have survived, but were able to run away…

A crossroads 4 km west of Nova Poltavka is shelled. 5 km north of the village, an AS-90 155mm SPG is destroyed. Ukrainian drones and positions are attacked inside the village by drones and with shelling. A Russian flag was planted in the village but it may still be in Ukrainian hands.

Russians in Vodiane Druhe are harrassed by drones and a BMP is destroyed. Russia plants a flag in eastern Malynivka and attack a group of buildings 2500 meters north of the village.

Ukrainian positions in Stara Mykolaivka and south of Romanivka are attacked.

The Russian push in between Pokrovsk and Toretsk should not have been a surprise to Ukraine’s military leadership. As the Kurakhovke cauldron shrank, there was less frontage available for Russian units. At the end of December, two Russian brigades were withdrawn from Kurakhove and sent to Vozdvyzhenka. Russia had been conducting constant attacks in this area for months, but since the end of July 2024, the only progress they made was west of the village and that progress was stalled since the end of August.

With these two new Russian brigades, though, progress resumed at the end of December. The 157th Mechanized Brigade, formed last summer (after Zelensky has announced his order that no new brigades are going to be formed), was sent as a reinforcement to defend Tarasivka in February. It was inexperienced, but at least the entire brigade was deployed together.

By February 24th, two Russian divisions had been withdrawn from Kurakhove and an OSINT observer predicted they would be sent to support the heavy fighting in Toretsk by deploying to the west of Toretsk and reported that an artillery brigade was moved to Toretsk.

Of course, all the related warnings were ignored in Kyiv: why should generals proven as wise and as skilled as Syrsky & Buddies listen to any kind of advice?

Even as Russia advanced out of Avidiivka and advanced towards Pokrovsk, they did not move north against Kalynove and Oleksandropil since June of 2024. That was still true when Russia moved north into Niu York in July. On this ‘quiet’ sector, the 109th and 111th Territorial Defense Brigades of Ukraine have held their ground. That changed when the Russians, reinforced by those two divisions, started attacking at the end of March.

Last August, Russia formed the Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies by taking the best drone operators from units throughout the Russian army. Unlike many Russian units, they have an informal culture and are encouraged to test new ideas and replicate them on a large scale. When they were moved to Kursk, Ukrainian logistics immediately began to suffer as the limited supply roads were interdicted with drones. Their activities sped up the Russian advance in Kursk by weeks and scores of Ukrainian vehicles were destroyed trying to bring supplies in and while trying to withdraw. The presence of the Rubicon drone unit indicates a major Russian effort and in mid-April they were moved in between Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian troops report that they are having an immediate and significant impact on the battlefield. One impact was eliminating Ukrainian reconnaissance drones.

Also in mid-April, and in his endless wisdom (outmatched only by Dumpf, of course), Glavcom Syrsky reverted to his old, ‘proven’ practices of piecemeal reinforcement by sending one battalion of the 5th Brigade, one battalion of the 36th Marine Brigade from Kursk, and the drone units from the 91st Anti-Tank Battalion, all to help out the 157th and 109th brigades. In addition, the 111th Brigade was reinforced by one battalion of the 38th Marine Brigade. Then he did something entirely new: in late April, he sent elements (not even a full battalion) of the 425th Skala Regiment, which had been leading counterattacks in the western Pokrovsk sector, to help out the 111th Brigade. And, since the resulting chaos was still not enough, the 12th Azov Brigade had one battalion in the area (whose role remains unclear; probably, the Glavcom simply forgot about it).

In the meantime, Russia moved another brigade and regiment from Kurakhove to put more pressure on the Ukrainian defenses west of Vozdvyzhenka.

A belated Christmas- and Easter surprise! Sure, we don’t have the complete information, but meanwhile it’s quite obvious that the ZSU - the Ukrainian Armed Forces - have re-deployed several brigades to inactive border areas, or into rear areas, so they can rest, re-organise, recover their combat effectiveness. We are quite certain even the involved troops are wondering how could this happen to them: considering Syrsky was refusing any such measures as of one year ago (so much so, even the US Joint Chiefs of Staff paid a visit to Kyiv, to explain him the importance of resting troops), it must be that Drapaty (Commander Ground Forces ZSU) started taking such decisions on his own.

…and, have no doubts: at his own risk, too…

Why should Syrsky help him, where he was so successful in de-railing the summer counteroffensive of 2023, for the purpose of gaining fame with a completely pointless counteroffensive in the Bakhmut area?

But, that’s ‘going off topic’…

What is certain is that Ukraine - read: Glavcom Syrsky - had information of a Russian buildup in the south, and did not counter it for months. Instead of preventing a crisis, he did the usual: reacted to it. And, while at that, he once again detached battalions from brigades, further fragmenting units when they were theoretically supposed to be reuniting units and forming corps….

So very much new, considering Glavcom’s commanding style, and ‘so much better than before’… hey: we’re surprised Dumpf didn’t hire Syrsky to take over as the Secretary of Defence of the USA!

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Pokrovsk

Novoserhiivka was attacked by Russians and defended by drones. While the attacks in the west continue, it is the east that continues to unravel. As the penetration north of Tarasivka continues, it destabilizes the defenses to the left and right.

A mechanized assault was eliminated by the 414th drone regiment. One Russian was lucky as a drone bounced off of him but another was unlucky because the same drone deflected to him.

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Andrivka

Russian shelling starts a fire in eastern Bahatyr and morebombarded the west. Ukrainiandrones hunt for Russians at the same location the Russians bombarded in the west. After the massive bombardment last week, Russians were spotted with flags in thenorth and west of the village. Ukrainianstore down the flags andpushed out the Russians. Any successful counterattack is good, but the village is vulnerable to future Russian attacks.

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Komar

Russians enter Vilna Pole and pursue Ukrainians with drones and artillery shells.

Kherson

Russian targets that are spotted in Nova Khakovka are bombed.

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(…to be continued…)