Don's Weekly, 19 February 2024: Part 3
(…continued from Part 2…)
Diplomacy
The US bill to aid Ukraine, Israel and American partners in the Pacific passed all the procedural votes in the Senate with bi-partisan support. Both parties acknowledge that if it was brought up in the House it would pass there, as well. House Speaker Johnson can allow the bill to come up for a vote or not, but he is in a difficult position. The MAGA representatives do not want to aid Ukraine. The rest of the Republicans and Democrats do, but if Johnson allows the vote to take place, the MAGA caucus could try to remove him as speaker just like they did with his predecessor. So Johnson is saying that foreign aid cannot happen until the US protects its borders, even though he rejected the bi-partisan Senate bill that does that (because Trump wants to run on immigration issues for November’s election).
There is an intentionally slow and difficult rule that can be invoked to force a bill to a vote. 218 signatures must be gathered to start the process. There are 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the house. The bill must then sit for 30 days before being brought for a vote. There are legislative procedures that can be used to vote on it more quickly or slowly. This move could theoretically allow the military aid bill to pass and allow Johnson to keep his job by taking the decision out of his hands…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/us/politics/congress-discharge-petition-ukraine.html?smid=url-share
Instead, Johnson decided to send everyone home for a couple weeks. When they come back, they will have three days to work on raising the US debt ceiling as the temporary measure will soon expire, leading to financial consequences for the US and the world. If you are interested in more details, Heather Cox Richardson can provide them: Letters from an American
Finland’s new president was part of the government when a nuclear power plant was built in his country by Russia, and when the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was built in Finnish waters. He now says that those efforts were a mistake. Alexander Stubb, once an aspiring professional golfer, said he would take Trump to the golf course and let him win as a means of furthering policy. Finland has a longer border with Russia than any other NATO country and Stubb says Finland will do its part to make NATO stronger, saying, “We are a security provider, not a security consumer.”…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/12/world/europe/finland-president-trump-nato.html?smid=url-share
In October, the Russian finance minister said that almost all their drones came from China. (Ukraine also buys Chinese drones)…
Last week, China said the US should stop sending weapons to Ukraine so negotiations might have a chance to work. Also, NATO should stop making threats, and the Minsk agreement should be implemented. On the contrary, Beijing had nothing to say about North Korean and Iranian weapons…
https://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-ukraine-mink-agreement-weapons-1869726
In coordination with the UK, Norway will soon start a year-long training course on river operations for the Ukrainian Marines. They also donate $5.7 million in rubber boats and other equipment…
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1758150681481888128
The Estonian prime minister and several other Baltic officials have been placed on a wanted list in Russia for removing Soviet memorials…https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/13/europe/russia-estonia-kaja-kalla-intl/?dicbo=v2-kRTVbey&hpt=ob_blogfooterold
From October to December, the US sent 57,000 artillery shells calibre 155mm to Israel. On December 29, the US to send what appears to be another 86,000 rounds to Israel…
https://euro-sd.com/2024/01/major-news/35765/fms-of-155-mm-ammo-to-israel/
The director of an orphanage in Hungary sexually abused ten children in his charge. Another man tried to cover the abuse up by pressuring the victims to retract their statements and was sentenced to three years in prison. The president of Hungary pardoned that man and then resigned after public outrage. Activists then organized a protest of 10,000 people in Budapest. One of the organizers said, “I don’t know exactly what we’re going to achieve at the end of the day, but it’s certain that we won’t stay silent any longer, and that we had to step out from the comfort zone of our computer screens.”…
Armenia continues to sound the alarm that Azerbaijan is preparing for a full scale war. Azerbaijan wants a corridor to Naxcivan through Armenia. There are also two very small enclaves of Azerbaijan completely surrounded by Armenia in the north, plus a small Armenian enclave surrounded by Azerbaijan…
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1758155979307245701
***
Equipment
As of December, 2023, at least officially, the US delivered 2,000,000 (2 million) artillery shells calibre 155mm to Ukraine and 57,000 to Israel…
Although India is officially neutral in the conflict, they have a special relationship with Russia. Russia was dismayed to learn that 155mm shells produced in India are being used by Ukraine. India says they did not sent shells to Ukraine. Poland and Slovenia recently bought shells from India, and the US signed contracts with Poland, India and Canada to provide components for 155mm shells…https://www.eurasiantimes.com/indian-155mm-artillery-shells-land-up-in-ukraine-despite/
This report says that Russia is buying Starlink terminals through intermediaries in Dubai and connecting them to a network through Poland. Starlink does not operate in Russia, nor do they sell terminals to Russia. They cannot turn the satellites off near the front lines without affecting the Ukrainian terminals, too. So the Russian terminals can only work in some proximity to the front lines…
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-starlink-ukraine-nato-poland-1869513
Testing anti-tank mines dropped from drones…
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1757445024407507008
Russians complain that their vehicle Volnorez drone jammer doesn’t work…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1758450716744564762
Europe promised 1,000,000 artillery shells for Ukraine by March, and intends to deliver just over half of that amount by the end of the year. In the light of latest developments, the Europeans have promised to 1 million drones to Ukraine - though did not mention any kind of a timeline for this. Ukraine produced 300,000 drones last year…
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/european-coalition-bids-to-deliver-1-million-drones-to-ukraine/
A Russian-Canadian national pled guilty in a US court to sending millions of dollars worth of components to Russia that ended up in weapons and electronic warfare equipment…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1758140792567124235
Results vary, but in this one case the hardened windows on a Bohdana wheeled 155mm gun stopped a Lancet drone…
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1758133714905936247
Ukraine has always repaired military equipment, but we now know they are repairing M777s, too…
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1758027758850969741
(…to be continued - but in a slightly different form - with a reconstruction of the final phase of the Battle of Avidiivka…)
On the Equipment scene, this may be of interest:
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-czech-republic-found-almost-a-million-shells-for-ukraine/
"According to the Czech President, the country’s representatives managed to find about 500,000 155-mm artillery shells and 300,000 122-mm shells abroad.
He added that they could be transported to Ukraine in a matter of weeks if funding is secured quickly.
... However, he did not specify in which countries these hundreds of thousands of artillery munitions, which Ukraine needs to repel Russian aggression, are located."
Such a variety of angles to follow! Thanks for the efforts