Don's Weekly, 18 September 2023, Part 3
The third - and final - part of Don’s Weekly.
(Hope, it’s not causing any kind of inconveniences to split it into three parts. If it does, let me know: I can post it completely in one post, but you’re going to receive only a third via e-mail.)
The Cost of War
Depending on force levels, the US and allies spent US$45-100 billion a year in Afghanistan. In 18 months, the US gave Ukraine $75 billion (slightly more than 50% of the total aid provided so far). The EU just surpassed the US aid for the first time with $167 promised and delivered aid. Working with just the delivered aid (about $75 billion), the Ukrainian war is costing it's allies $100 billion a year.
By Feb '23, Kyiv School of Economics says the destruction costs are $143 billion. By March '23, the World Bank says they are $411 billion. Ukraine's military budget is just under $6 billion:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-47391821
https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/europe-surpasses-usa-in-support-for-ukraine/
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/cost-war-ukraine
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-damage-world-bank-6ecb537d2ab78a347306883603e65c33
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/UKR/ukraine/military-spending-defense-budget
Russian Fires
A warehouse of radioelectronic goods in Rostov-on-Don.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1702717790589722665
The Russians blew up a Kinzhal that fell off one of their planes near Tula. 40 buses were called to evacuate the locals, but not their pets.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1702733360970240385
NOELreports is right, fires seem to be down this week. But here’s a ball bearing factory in Samara.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1702622083421794322
A shopping center in St. Petersburg. I don’t know if it is war-related or not.
https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1702819559269711891
Greenhouses in Moscow.
https://twitter.com/Activatica/status/1702756592599409089
Somethings hot in Bryansk.
https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1703234235245768781
An oil depot in Oral.
https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1703234091817291965
Diplomacy
The deputy of Russia’s Duma says that all former Soviet republics will be annexed or there will be a war. He directly threatened Belarus and Armenia:
The US used to make Ukraine promise not to use US-provided weapons on Russian territories. After the usual talk of diplomats, the US now says Ukraine can do what they want with the weapons they receive. "And they themselves should make decisions about what can be most effective in restoring their territorial integrity. In accordance with our own policy, we do not encourage and do not allow the use of our weapons systems outside of Ukraine. But again, this is Ukraine's decision." Blinken said:
During the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, fought in September-November 2020, Azerbaijan defeated Armenia, forcing it to withdraw the mass of its armed forces from parts of Azerbaijan around the territory claimed by Armenia. Central and northern part of Nagorno-Karabakh were still under Armenian control at the time a Moscow-mediated cease-fire was agreed. Azerbaijan agreed on condition that Armenians would withdraw their remaining armed forces from there, under the Russian supervision. Three years later, Armenians are still refusing to do so. Few days ago, official Yerevan announced it was a ‘mistake’ to rely on its alliance with Russia and it is now hoping the European Union might take care of protection of ethnic Armenians still in Nagorno-Karabakh:
https://www.politico.eu/article/we-cant-rely-russia-protect-us-anymore-nikol-pashinyan-armenia-pm/
Romania is moving air defenses to its border with Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1702739409190187475
Turkey and the UAE condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but continue trading with it. Turkey relies on Russian energy and tourists. The US sanctioned some Turkish companies that it says are violating the sanctions on Russia:
The list of top ten countries evading Russian sanctions is ranked by the number of companies involved in the evasions. Russia is ranked number 2 on the list:
https://twitter.com/rubberduckcanuk/status/1702766488648577383
Cars with Russian license plates will be removed from Finland:
https://twitter.com/HenriVanhanen/status/1702638487445426359
Hungary’s foreign minister says the world is suffering not because Russia invaded Ukraine, but because the EU is supporting Ukraine. I wonder if he remembers 1956…?
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1702587711469605183
“As long as it takes” is the right answer. Kudos to you, Germany:
https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1702600250857300078
Kadyrov’s father fought against Russia before he switched sides and was given control of Chechnya in return for fighting his former allies. After his father was assassinated, Kadyrov won a power struggle three years later and rules through oppression and murder. While he supports the Russian invasion, his fighters are ineffective and are known as TikTok warriors for their comical videos. In February, one of his generals was reportedly poisoned by toxins on a letter. In March, he was reportedly poisoned by the GRU. Not trusting Russian doctors, he has been seeking treatment in the UAE. A Kazakh journalist said that the illness was fatal. It is now reported that he is in critical condition:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/vladimir-putin-mysterious-events-continue-as-top-ally-in-serious-condition-after-alleged-poisoning/ar-AA18ePTq
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1702716479521607859
The US Senate is inquiring into Elon Musk’s impact on international affairs through his ownership of Starlink. I expected this to happen sooner. “Committee Chairman Jack Reed emphasised that neither Elon Musk nor any private individual can unilaterally determine matters of U.S. national security.”
On the opening day of the war, Estonia warned Ukraine that 18 transport planes were preparing to fly to Hostomel airport after it was to be seized by 300 airborne and Spetsnaz soldiers supported by 34 helicopters. The outgoing head of Estonian intelligence holds only his third interview:
https://theins.press/en/politics/265092
Just a random post on China sanctioning US companies over Taiwan and threatening worse:
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1702604009033617568
Drones
The higher elevations of hills, ridges and buildings are not just useful for human observation, they are also important for drone signals. If terrain elevations block the signal between the drone operator and the drone, then the drone can only flight at high altitudes for reconnaissance or dropping bombs. If the signal is not blocked by terrain then the drone can drop bombs from lower altitudes or a kamekazi drone can be flown into the target. Sometimes you will see static on the video right before a kamekazi drone hits because at the very low altitude terrain can sometimes interfere with the signal.
Electronic Warfare units can jam the GPS signals or the signals between the drone operator and the drone. If successful, the drone operator loses control of the drone and it may continue flying its current direction without change or it may just hover until it runs out of power. Developers are working to make drones more resistant to EW jamming by using digital signals with the drone instead of analog, but this is more expensive
Drone operators need to coordinate with friendly EW operators about the route and duration of the mission so friendly jamming doesn’t interfere with friendly jamming operations. When a corridor is free of friendly jamming, though, it is easier for enemy drones to penetrate the front lines, so each offensive recon or attack mission can potentially create a defensive vulnerability.
Much of Ukrainian drone production relies on parts from China. China said they are not selling drone equipment to Russia and Ukraine but they never stopped selling to both countries. At any time, China could deactivate the accounts needed to operate the drones. Ukrainian manufacturers are trying to find production sources that are more secure.
Ukraine loses about 10,000 drones a month. Defender Army is a company with a 29-year-old co-founder that produces over 5,000 First Person View (FPV) drones a month. On the other hand, 55 Hawk drones were purchased for $17.68 million from a manufacturer owned by Boryslav Rozenblat. At $401k each, only one in four could take off intesting and they lost the signal in less than 2 km. https://kyivindependent.com/head-first-into-the-future-inside-the-race-to-win-the-drone-war-in-ukraine/
Ukraine has a school that is training drone operator and is creating dedicated teams that will eventually be assigned to all brigades. If a trainee does not demonstrate the skill required he is removed from the school. Those that pass have varying skill levels and the most talented get the best results. This is a montage of drone attacks. Note that a hit does not always equate to a kill. That can only be determined is there is another drone recording the effects of the impact. Sometimes even fiery explosions result in little to no damage. Sometimes a single hit will lead to a catestrophic explosion. Notice how the drone operator in the first attack shown flies under the protective roof and into the vehicle:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1702958960339288068
A Russian target drone, likely used as a decoy for Ukrainian air defense missiles, was brought down by jamming it’s GPS signal.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1701190961294885328
A drone carefully flies under the anti-drone screen and into the hatch of an abandoned Russian tank.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1702188424566866086
Miscelaneous
Last September it was reported that due to a malfunction, a Russian jet fired on an RC-135W electronic intelligence gatering aircraft underway over the Black Sea, but that the aircraft was not hit. Now there is a report that a Russian jet deliberately fired because the pilot thought he had orders to do so, but his missiles failed to lock onto the RAF plane. The Russian pilot and his wingman then argued with each other and the pilot launched a second missile that either had a mechanical failure or was aborted. The RAF plane had the capacity to listen to these conversations.:
Hunters sometimes shoot from trees.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1703253850507911307
A Russian proudly poses in front of his bunker with overhead protection consisting of dirt, crates, and matresses.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1702795771056214168
Ukraine says Russians desiring to defect went up 70% after the Mi-8 pilot defected. I can't understand the interview, not sure if they said what the base number was before the 70% increase.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1701188753962815570
If Putin praises you, you’ve done something wrong:
Already under US sanction, Ukrainian MP Nestor Shufrych is arrested for passing information to Russia and the charge is treason:
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1702564750494670863
Some of the documents and uniforms found in his house:
https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1702591893580685616
As insurance against a possible conviction, one of Russia's richest women was negotiating with Wagner to be recruited as a prisoner and serve as a mercenary from a hospital. This option is no longer available:
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1701651149751742738
…he has a hand grenade…no idea on how much he’s had to drink. He’s sorry, though, and won’t do it again.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1702631892757921863
Three Russian veterans dead at a party after playing with a grenade.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1703069816477647142
A non-scientific poll in Russia with many opinions. In one interview: “So you’ve abstracted?” “Yes, I read less news.”
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1702590861215740333
This war has always been about humans:
https://twitter.com/Igor_from_Kyiv_/status/1701955117895897236
Donations
From March 3-10, 2022, 15 British charities under the umbrella of the Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC) raised £61,997,547 in an online campaign that set a Guinness record for the most money ever raised in one week. Over the months, the amount of donations have waned just as the intensity of an offensive expends and destroys equipment and supplies at a faster rate. Units that have been aided by private donations were able to buy drones, first aid kits, tourniquets, trucks, more drones and so many other items that keep them alive directly or by helping them stop those who would kill them. Without the private support, all units are more reliant on equipment and supplies donated by the governments of Ukraine’s allies, and even at $100 billion a year it’s not enough. Ukraine’s own military budget is $6 billion. It’s not enough. It’s never been enough.
The SBU, 3rd Assault Brigade, 92nd Mechanized Brigade and 93rd Mechanized Brigade are all short on Shark drones, a particularly effective home-produced drone that can detect Russian targets deep behind enemy lines. If you can see it, you can kill it. The 28th Mechanized Brigade across from Kurdiumivka, and the 66th Mechanized Brigade in the Svatove-Kreminna area, never had the level of private support that some brigades used to have. They need Shark drones, too.
Across the board, they’re short of medical evacuation vehicles, medical equipment and supplies. Some units run out of morphine at times. They need SUV’s, generators, and demining equipment. It’s a long list. Every little bit helps, whether you donate to a specific unit or an organization that provides general support.
https://war.ukraine.ua/donate/
I like the format. Especially compiling and linking all the combat footage pieces in social media to certain areas / battles on the front.
The technical and political summaries are a nice touch as well.
Good cooperation, looking forward to more.
A couple of photos of the "lightly damaged" submarine rostov-on-don
https://www.verkkouutiset.fi/a/kuvien-kerrotaan-nayttavan-reian-venajan-sukellusveneen-kyljessa/#323b5c89