Tom, what is the basis for your observation (and extrapolation) re drones and russian superiority? I mean observed vehicle losses and estimates about KIAs still point towards much higher losses on the russian side. Well, they are attacking and not every loss is on video but, still, if the situation was that critical (and the russians had such an advantage in addition to the air superiority, troop numbers, vehicles available, artillery, etc) wouldn’t this show in a higher pace of advancement!?
In addition to my previous comment, all the observations (incl Don’s) about the battle of/in Krynki point to at least a drone equilibrium if not ZSU’s superiority. To the extent that if not for ZSU’s drone activity, the battle would be over for this village. Again, this is just one section in a thousand km front but apart from Avdiivka last month. I just don’t hear that the situation to be so lopsided in russian favor (or at least this is how I understood your words)
Actually I read some drone producers interviews. He says that there are queues on frequencies on the front because it can be only some number of drones on particular part of front that use the same frequency So simple increasing of drone number can't continue long without decrease of effectiveness.
Converted hobby drones have limited bandwidths. Both sides are constantly changing antennas and bandwidths to avoid jamming and increase operational capbilities.
That is correct. With Ukrainian jammers and the numbers of their drone teams that acheived drone superiority around Krynky. They did not achieve drone supremacy as Russian drones still were spotted on video observing attacking targets on the right bank.
One Ukrainian said that the state of EW changes about every eight weeks in various sectors and there are reports that Russia brought in additional jammers near Krynky. This hasn't stopped Ukrainian drones, they are still destroying Russian vehicles, but it made their life more difficult and brought the situation closer to parity with Russia.
On the other hand, Russia had drone superiority in Avdiivka and Ukrainian EW reinforcements recently moved that situation closer to parity.
Regarding the onset of coldest season and attacks on the Ukrainian power grid.
The weather forecast stays well above 0*C, meaning that even days-long blackouts are not going to result in raptures of pipes of cities' centralized heating systems - the single most feared consequence of the last winter's attacks.
The coldest season is likely to come in the second half of January.
I'm a retired and poor reader of yours. I can't afford a subscription but do want to thank you for my shorter free version. I never miss a day of your writings.
I want to thank you for the fine reporting you do. And Merry Christmas
Does anybody know, whether there is a (somewhat) meaningful option to shoot down FPV drones, e.g. is a Gepard able to do that or are those drones just too small?
Gepards are death to Shahed drones and can detect them far beyond the range of their weapons. FPV drones are too small and a Gepard on the front line would be a high value target.
There are means to detect FPV drones electronically.
The factors involved are cost of the detection and firepower equipment since they would be exposed on the front line. Small arms can easily bring down FPVs but it is difficult for a human to hit them even when it is flying directly towards them. Right now, jamming is the most effective defense against FPV drones. Operators on both sides are taking measures to avoid jamming. Some of those measures add cost to the FPV drones. In the EW world there is a counter to every solution and it is only limited by cost and physics.
Assuming drones/FPVs will be able to operate fairly autonomously, through AI and alike, are there currently any EW options to bring them down or is this currently just not really a counter against such a weapon?
Right now, the biggest method of attacking drones with electronic warfare is to overpower the radio signal between the operator and the drone. Without the signal, the drone continues to follow its last orders or falls out of the sky.
A variant on that is spoofing, or sending your own signal that replaces the operators signals and then you have control of the drone.
AI is still being developed and it will increase the costs of a drone. One method of utilizing AI is to instruct the drone to fly to a certain area and look for targets recorded in its internal library. If there are multiple targets they can be prioritized. One way to defend against that is to change the appearance of a target so it cannot be recognized as a target. The more sophisticated the AI, the harder it is to fool it. Another way is to send a high burst of energy to fry the circuits of the drone.
Both FPVs and bomber drones can operate with AI to get around jamming. For reconnaissance drones it will be a little more complicated. Most send back live feeds of what they see. If they are jammed this isn't possible. AI could still be used to return a reconnaissance drone if it loses an operator signal.
Reconnaissance drones can also fly with AI to an area and return and the video can be downloaded from its memory, but now there is a delay between what was seen and the present. If an artillery, rocket or drone attack were still ordered based on the video in the memory, then an assessment of the results wouldn't be possible unless another drone recorded the attack and returned to download its video.
There are reconnaissance drones, like the Ukrainian Shark, that cost over $100k and are resistant to EW. They have been able to continue functioning under some circumstances while jamming is taking place.
Drones without AI will be the norm in the near future. Also in the foreseeable future, drones with AI won't be as effective or responsive as a drone with an operator in an EW-free environment. And in the EW world, there is always a counter to a counter. It will be interesting to see how capabilities and costs evolve.
My expectation and concern at the same time is, that AI type of drones will be the new norm, meaning they are programmed with target information (e.g. tanks of a certain shape with a “V” or “Z”, infantry within a certain area) sent of and operate fairly independent. They will not even need GPS information, just images of maps (shape of fields, tree lines, etc). With such a mechanic, so many drones (dozens or hundreds) could be sent, that they will be like mosquitos, meaning movement of infantry will be suicidal.
I understand, the only option to counter this will be trying to fry the circuit boards, which will likely be very difficult for multiple drones and eventually be as hard as trying to
stop bullets.
Just my thoughts and expectation, of course future is highly uncertain, I am far from being an expert, just trying to make some estimates based on common sense and my understanding.
Drones are evolving. Defenses against them will also evolve beyond just frying circuits. At some point, drones will engage drones. They (rarely) do that now with intentional collisions. The rate of this evolution is hard to predict but non-AI drones will have a role to play for some time yet.
DARPA is the US defense research agency. They're pretty smart, having invented the internet among other things. They were working on an AI detection system of humans. It did really well detecting humans walking around. It was defeated by a pair of humans walking towards it with a box over their heads, by one holding a tree in front of him, and one human defeated it by somersaulting for 300 meters.
They(Red Plague) simple don’t understand that humanity cannot be kept under terror forever. What is happening now in Ukraine, it happened before in many balcanic countries . We all payed blood tribute to get rid of this plague from the face of Earth. And with every day/hour/seconds, “they” doesn’t realise what it accomplish. And that is a more deeper hate to that awful regime. It will be written in the DNA of future generations for good. Yes, maybe they are a military force, a stubborn attackers, but when every molecule from a country hate you, you cannot win. Maybe you will keep the supremacy for a while but when you will fail (and be assured that you will fail) there will be no place on this Earth to hide.
Thanks Tom and Don!
Tom, what is the basis for your observation (and extrapolation) re drones and russian superiority? I mean observed vehicle losses and estimates about KIAs still point towards much higher losses on the russian side. Well, they are attacking and not every loss is on video but, still, if the situation was that critical (and the russians had such an advantage in addition to the air superiority, troop numbers, vehicles available, artillery, etc) wouldn’t this show in a higher pace of advancement!?
In addition to my previous comment, all the observations (incl Don’s) about the battle of/in Krynki point to at least a drone equilibrium if not ZSU’s superiority. To the extent that if not for ZSU’s drone activity, the battle would be over for this village. Again, this is just one section in a thousand km front but apart from Avdiivka last month. I just don’t hear that the situation to be so lopsided in russian favor (or at least this is how I understood your words)
Actually I read some drone producers interviews. He says that there are queues on frequencies on the front because it can be only some number of drones on particular part of front that use the same frequency So simple increasing of drone number can't continue long without decrease of effectiveness.
Converted hobby drones have limited bandwidths. Both sides are constantly changing antennas and bandwidths to avoid jamming and increase operational capbilities.
That is correct. With Ukrainian jammers and the numbers of their drone teams that acheived drone superiority around Krynky. They did not achieve drone supremacy as Russian drones still were spotted on video observing attacking targets on the right bank.
One Ukrainian said that the state of EW changes about every eight weeks in various sectors and there are reports that Russia brought in additional jammers near Krynky. This hasn't stopped Ukrainian drones, they are still destroying Russian vehicles, but it made their life more difficult and brought the situation closer to parity with Russia.
On the other hand, Russia had drone superiority in Avdiivka and Ukrainian EW reinforcements recently moved that situation closer to parity.
Regarding the onset of coldest season and attacks on the Ukrainian power grid.
The weather forecast stays well above 0*C, meaning that even days-long blackouts are not going to result in raptures of pipes of cities' centralized heating systems - the single most feared consequence of the last winter's attacks.
The coldest season is likely to come in the second half of January.
The Russians are still producing and storing missiles. That may be what triggers their assault.
Today, high vehicle loses reported, see https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1736635803562815733
Just curious to know if any military uses boring machines.
I could imagine such a device tunneling under a mine field but there are probably all sorts of practical restraints.
The Russians have done that in Avdiivka. Few details are know but they likely did it by hand.
Don't
I'm a retired and poor reader of yours. I can't afford a subscription but do want to thank you for my shorter free version. I never miss a day of your writings.
I want to thank you for the fine reporting you do. And Merry Christmas
The war zone I also compliment daily
Thanks for all
Bob
Does anybody know, whether there is a (somewhat) meaningful option to shoot down FPV drones, e.g. is a Gepard able to do that or are those drones just too small?
Probably too small to detect via radar (the biggest metallic element would be their oversized battery which usually hangs below the quadcopter).
If Gepard can detect these, the 35mm shells should be like hitting a fly with a hammer.
Probably even 7.62mm rounds would be enough to down them, provided that they can reach them (I would guess around 1-1.5 kilometers effective range).
Gepards are death to Shahed drones and can detect them far beyond the range of their weapons. FPV drones are too small and a Gepard on the front line would be a high value target.
There are means to detect FPV drones electronically.
https://www.fierceelectronics.com/components/why-hi-resolution-radar-a-game-changer
The factors involved are cost of the detection and firepower equipment since they would be exposed on the front line. Small arms can easily bring down FPVs but it is difficult for a human to hit them even when it is flying directly towards them. Right now, jamming is the most effective defense against FPV drones. Operators on both sides are taking measures to avoid jamming. Some of those measures add cost to the FPV drones. In the EW world there is a counter to every solution and it is only limited by cost and physics.
Many thanks, very valuable and insightful explanation!
Hi Don, hi Tom,
I have a follow up question here:
Assuming drones/FPVs will be able to operate fairly autonomously, through AI and alike, are there currently any EW options to bring them down or is this currently just not really a counter against such a weapon?
Right now, the biggest method of attacking drones with electronic warfare is to overpower the radio signal between the operator and the drone. Without the signal, the drone continues to follow its last orders or falls out of the sky.
A variant on that is spoofing, or sending your own signal that replaces the operators signals and then you have control of the drone.
AI is still being developed and it will increase the costs of a drone. One method of utilizing AI is to instruct the drone to fly to a certain area and look for targets recorded in its internal library. If there are multiple targets they can be prioritized. One way to defend against that is to change the appearance of a target so it cannot be recognized as a target. The more sophisticated the AI, the harder it is to fool it. Another way is to send a high burst of energy to fry the circuits of the drone.
Both FPVs and bomber drones can operate with AI to get around jamming. For reconnaissance drones it will be a little more complicated. Most send back live feeds of what they see. If they are jammed this isn't possible. AI could still be used to return a reconnaissance drone if it loses an operator signal.
Reconnaissance drones can also fly with AI to an area and return and the video can be downloaded from its memory, but now there is a delay between what was seen and the present. If an artillery, rocket or drone attack were still ordered based on the video in the memory, then an assessment of the results wouldn't be possible unless another drone recorded the attack and returned to download its video.
There are reconnaissance drones, like the Ukrainian Shark, that cost over $100k and are resistant to EW. They have been able to continue functioning under some circumstances while jamming is taking place.
Drones without AI will be the norm in the near future. Also in the foreseeable future, drones with AI won't be as effective or responsive as a drone with an operator in an EW-free environment. And in the EW world, there is always a counter to a counter. It will be interesting to see how capabilities and costs evolve.
Many thanks for your comment and explanation!
My expectation and concern at the same time is, that AI type of drones will be the new norm, meaning they are programmed with target information (e.g. tanks of a certain shape with a “V” or “Z”, infantry within a certain area) sent of and operate fairly independent. They will not even need GPS information, just images of maps (shape of fields, tree lines, etc). With such a mechanic, so many drones (dozens or hundreds) could be sent, that they will be like mosquitos, meaning movement of infantry will be suicidal.
I understand, the only option to counter this will be trying to fry the circuit boards, which will likely be very difficult for multiple drones and eventually be as hard as trying to
stop bullets.
Just my thoughts and expectation, of course future is highly uncertain, I am far from being an expert, just trying to make some estimates based on common sense and my understanding.
Drones are evolving. Defenses against them will also evolve beyond just frying circuits. At some point, drones will engage drones. They (rarely) do that now with intentional collisions. The rate of this evolution is hard to predict but non-AI drones will have a role to play for some time yet.
DARPA is the US defense research agency. They're pretty smart, having invented the internet among other things. They were working on an AI detection system of humans. It did really well detecting humans walking around. It was defeated by a pair of humans walking towards it with a box over their heads, by one holding a tree in front of him, and one human defeated it by somersaulting for 300 meters.
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/marines-ai-paul-scharre/
Thank you, very interesting and complex topic!
They(Red Plague) simple don’t understand that humanity cannot be kept under terror forever. What is happening now in Ukraine, it happened before in many balcanic countries . We all payed blood tribute to get rid of this plague from the face of Earth. And with every day/hour/seconds, “they” doesn’t realise what it accomplish. And that is a more deeper hate to that awful regime. It will be written in the DNA of future generations for good. Yes, maybe they are a military force, a stubborn attackers, but when every molecule from a country hate you, you cannot win. Maybe you will keep the supremacy for a while but when you will fail (and be assured that you will fail) there will be no place on this Earth to hide.