Don's Weekly, 18 December 2023: Part 2

(…continued from Part 1….)

Marinka

In the past three weeks, Russia has been attacking at both Marinka and Novomykhailivka, 10 km to the south. At both locations they’ve gained a kilometer of ground in some spots. The Russians have controlled about 90% of Marinka for a while now, but they just took control of the rubble of the last couple streets: the completely devastated town is under their control now.

A Russian drone attacks a Ukrainian position at Novomykhailivka…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1735056816155812195

A Russian tank and infantry position is attacked by drones…

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1735013206463050000

A Cheburashka MLRS fires a thermobaric rocket at a Ukrainian position at Novomykhailivka…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1735713530609889677

Russian infantry is attacked by drones in the ruins of Marinka…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1735025777261908356

Kherson

Russian airstrikes aren’t that accurate but they can be deadly even with a near miss. In order to avoid hitting their own troops, they aimed near the center of Krynky which is 2-3 km from the front lines. Artillery and TOS-1As have also attacked Krynky. Because of these attacks, Ukraine leaves much of Krynky unmanned. They built strong defenses in the forest and defended a thin perimeter on the front lines with Russia. Because Ukrainian drones are observing the Russians day and night, they can see Russian troop build ups and their direction of movement. They attack these concentrations with artillery and drones, and if they are moving against a vacated section of Krynky, they move their own troops in from the swamp and forest to meet them. When the engagement is over, the Ukrainians pull their troops out again to protect them from the bombardments that are sure to come.

The rest of the Ukrainians on the front line are close enough that Russia can’t use its artillery and airstrikes against them. In the face of US fire superiority, the North Vietnamese did the same thing and called it, “grabbing the enemy’s belt” to fight him. The Ukrainian variation of this tactic realizes that they cannot, as yet, stop Russian airstrikes and they can stop only some of their artillery attacks, but they have firepower of their own in the form of artillery and drones. The scale of these engagements is small: Maybe 40 to possibly 100 Russians against Ukrainian forces that are less than half that. The battlefield awareness provided by Ukrainian drones supported by the quick responses of their artillery and attack drones have been key to their successes so far.

The Russians tried to attack through the forest with infantry but in that terrain Ukraine has a strong advantage. As Russian reconnaissance troops approached Ukrainian positions to try and determine their locations, Ukrainian snipers with thermal sights would kill them. Russian troops would attack anyway without knowing exactly where the Ukrainian defenses were and each wave would be repulsed. Ukraine had multiple defensive positions and the troops would move around between the different positions, and the Ukrainian Marines would patrol the no man’s land to set up ambushes. Much of the time, Russian drones wouldn’t operate because of Ukrainian electronic counter measures so the Russian infantry couldn’t detect the ambushes and paid the price.

When the ZSU achieved air superiority with drones in the sector, the Russians paid the price in form of dozens of vehicles and about a hundred of them were destroyed in a couple of months. For several weeks, Russia pulled back or tried to hide their armor and most of the vehicles they lost were the supply trucks that had to risk the drones. Recently, they decided to change their tactics.

Russia switched the focus of its attack from the forest to the flanks of the forest. They also decided to use armored vehicles to support this attack. Ukrainian drones spotted the forces assembling and damaged or destroyed many of the vehicles before they could attack. Russia decided to continue the attack with just infantry but they were repelled.

Russia was able to launch a second attack with vehicles, some of which were attacked while moving to engage the Ukrainians. Some were carrying infantry on the top. Some of them were able to make contact with the Ukrainians and they were damaged or destroyed there. Others made it past the thin front lines and were then destroyed inside the ruins of Kyrnky itself.

Like many places in Ukraine, Russian misery doesn’t mean life is easy for the Ukrainian soldiers. A New York Times article says that Krynky is the only toehold Ukraine managed to get on the left bank but there are videos of Russian attacks behind Oleshky, Poima and sometimes Pidstepne that suggest otherwise. There are also indications that the incidents listed here is not the universal norm.

The main focus of the article is the experiences of six Ukrainian soldiers around Krynky. They say the shelling and bombing turned the riverbank into a mass of mud and splintered trees and that some bodies have not been recovered in two months because of the danger from shelling.

One soldier was particularly frustrated, saying that wounded are left behind because of a lack of boats. He says that there are no positions and it was impossible to move equipment. (There are other reports that say otherwise). A drone commander says that kamikaze drones are cheaper and more accurate than artillery shells, which are in short supply.

Another soldier said that in November, his 10-man platoon was stuck in the basements in houses and after three soldiers were killed by an airstrike they were ordered to retreat. They came under shellfire in the dark while making their way to a river bank where they were told they had to wait three hours for boats. Everyone was wounded so they huddled in the swamp and shell holes filled with water. A boat on a different mission arrived and took back the most seriously wounded, presumably from more than one unit. Three more bombs hit before and another boat arrives 3 hours later and evacuates five more men. 40 minutes after that the soldier is evacuated. Only five in his platoon made it back and all were wounded…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/16/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-river-russia.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20231216&instance_id=110324&nl=the-morning&regi_id=139486627&segment_id=152763&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422

While those incidents are believable they do not seem to be representative of the entire area. For instance, here a Ukrainian walks around openly in one section of Krynky:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1735003291711385957

I believe New York Times reports happened, but when and where it happened wasn’t reported, nor is there any indication in the report of how widespread that sort of action was…

Magyar is disappointed by the New York Times article. He also says that in 2.5 months his unit hit 450 vehicles and destroyed 153…

Ukraine doesn’t give out a lot of information about the left bank but a month ago they said they consolidated strongholds on several positions…

https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1725509131493069133

There are the Russian vehicles that Andrew Perpetua tracked in the Krynky area that were damaged, destroyed or abandoned. Also, it seems like a person called Supernova steals his work. A lot. Did I mention that I use Andrew’s map for a weekly compilation of drone, artillery and airstrikes to gauge trends?…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1735334358335066362

Here’s Andrew’s nearly seven week compilation of all videos he found around Krynky, not just drone, artillery and airstrikes…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1735035543702950155

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1735044690712416604

Russian drones drop mines into the Konka river, which the Ukrainians use to transport troops and supplies…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1734632519482376504

Russian drones north of the Dnieper attack Ukrainian armored vehicles…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1734316008876483064

Another great look at the terrain. This vehicle is driving on a dirt road in the forest south of Krynky onto highway T2206. If the vehicle drone north it would end up at the center of Ukraine’s forest defenses. It’s patrolled by Ukrainian drones which makes it very dangerous for Russian vehicles.…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1734301627199201738

A BTR is destroyed by a Ukrainian drone 2 km south of Krynky…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1734188279774183432

A car on the northern side of the Dnieper is hit by a Russian drone…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1736492722809123135

In September 2022, a Russian Su-34 drops a pair of bombs at low altitude. They have parachutes to delay their impact, giving the aircraft plenty of time to clear the blast zone…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1735447208755904680

Not all Russians fully understand the concept of backblast, even though he looked behind to see if he was clear. He did not have an opportunity to learn from his mistake…

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1735742508804514236

Russia

A review of the use of prisoners in the Russian army…

https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1735248174296502628

The US believes Russia lost 315,000 troops (dead and wounded). Ukraine says it’s 342,000…https://www.reuters.com/world/us-intelligence-assesses-ukraine-war-has-cost-russia-315000-casualties-source-2023-12-12/

This is just two opinions out of a population of 143 million, but sometimes when you’re 80 you just don’t care anymore…

https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1736342522568347670?s=61&t=AM9hWs1h6xI_FOT4SOGKbA

After Russia’s second invasion in 2022, many Western companies left the country. True to his nature, Putin only let them sell their assets to buyers he approved and then at a fraction of their value. Sometimes he just seized their assets. The Russian authorities have investigated departing companies, interrogated workers and arrested local executives. High taxes on those exiting the country brought in $1.25 billion dollars for Russia. The companies that left declared $103 billion in losses. Many western companies remain in Russia, and products, such as Pepsi from Uzbekistan and Coca-Cola from Poland, are still available on Moscow shelves.

There are at least 12,800 Russian TikTok accounts spreading disinformation…

https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1735470638712713685

A Russian airfield 300 km from the front lines was attacked by drones, potentially damaging an Su-34…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1736349522152853988

The explosion at the airbase…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1736294626108072385

Russian-occupied Ukraine

A warehouse in Mariupol was hit with equipment inside, from what I read…

https://twitter.com/war_crimes_uk/status/1735432426820608184

An oil terminal in Donetsk was hit…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1735752330362921291

Ukraine

Depending on the launch and target locations, Shaheed drones can take 1-3 hours before reaching the target site. This gives Ukraine a limited amount of time to move mobile teams into the path of the drones based on their current flight direction and modified by any pre-planned course changes for the drone. A video of mobile teams engaging drones at night…

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1735944346254414187

While the infantry live in the weather, tankers are not immune to it. Here, the driver stays dry on a muddy road but a shell hole hidden by water could launch a wave into his lap at any time. Not shown is the plume of water and mud thrown into the air by the vehicle’s tracks. Any trailing vehicles should keep their distance…

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1735978828537754052

The 3rd Assault Brigade consisted of the 1st and 2nd Mechanized Battalions, and the 1st and 2nd Assault Battalions. Now the 1st and 2nd Rifle Battalions have been added to the brigade…

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1735011444230348945

(….to be continued…)