I have no use for Trump's f***ing cabinet. Losers and proto-fascists, the whole lot of them. Liars just like their convicted felon of a national leader is. Don't expect anything good to come out of this Administration, unless of course, one of them occasionally screws up in reverse ... accidentally! Europe--get your act together; you are pretty much on your own for a while.
I wonder how viable is the suggestion that Canada join the EU and say f*** off Trumpist America?
Right now IMHO we Americans are living in a political looney bin with the inmates in charge and the staff incarcerated in a Kafka-esque nightmare.
Nearly all Americans think the current situation is straight out of Kafka. The debate is whether Trump & DOGE will fix it or make it worse. Few can do anything but wait to see what happens in the limited time they have to prove themselves.
FWIW I expect mixed results. DOGE has already publicized waste and blown things up that has actual merit. We shall see what waste will be excised forever and what good will remain.
What really got to me was a statement from a MAGA-crazy redneck who stated in a youtube video I watched recently, "I trust Trump. I am loyal to Trump." I took the standard oath of loyalty to the United States Constitution several times in my life, not to any president however much I may have liked the guy. Certainly not to this narcissist! I never heard the same such idiotic remark even from a liberal weenie Kamala crazy supporter (I am not liberal as you may surmise from this. **LOL** ). Frankly, both major American political parties are hugely messed up, but the Republicans are worse. Furthermore, the Republicans, even the non-MAGAs are turning themselves into fascists.
The waste that DOGE has claimed to have found has yet to be published publically with regard to detailed data. The way they have gone about it--"Kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out"--potentially has legal issues. Civil Service regulations IMHO seem to have been bypassed. I am a retired Civil Servant in addition to being retired USNR. I resent so much of the claims made by DOGE about civil servants which has been authorized and enabled by a convicted felon, inveterate liar, and toxic narcissist. He reminds me of Hitler. OK, he isn't gassing Jews, political prisoners, et. al. (yet). Likely never will, but he has the power given to him by nearly half the voting electorate to run amuck. He is also a f***ing moron as Rex Tillerson has been reported to have said.
I fear that the Trumpistas in gov't are channeling Gen. George McClellan of the U.S. Civil War. They may end up snatching defeat from the eventual jaws of victory in Ukraine.
Sorry for the long jeremiad. The daily news about Trump and his "wonderful" U.S. Cabinet secretaries are just too weird to believe.
DOGE has published lists of crazy wasteful USAid spending. Some news bubbles ignore the examples because few clicks from their audiences. Valid complaints about DOGE include that the most publicized examples (so far) are not big beer. One list of ~20 wasteful projects totaled "just" $180M. Now staffers from past D and R administrations post they regret they did not root out the fraud and waste DOGE is taking credit for. Another complaint is DOGE may be throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
We don't know what Trump and Putin have discussed. Some think Trump is telling Putin to leave Ukraine or suffer the consequences. Others think Trump will abandon Ukraine. We shall see.
What you said about DOGE I perceive is exactly correct: they may be throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
What I have seen of Trump's behavior for decades--e.g., the Trump organization screwed over one of my family member's business of installing acoustic panels in comercial buildings through failure to pay bills on time if ever and then declaring bankruptcy; vintage Trump behavior--in my view has not changed much unto today. His behavior is erratic and his pronuncements & decisions have no detailed planning behind them. I perceive that just about everything he does is superficial, yet the results potentially could be catastrophic for somebody or some nation, etc.
The cynic in me believes that all politicians are liars basically. Trump, however, takes lying into another dimension entirely! His lies are inveterate and very well may be pathological (particularly dangerous). Joseph Goebbels would be so proud had Trump been his protege. We are in for a real $hit storm for the next 2 to 4 years.
Note, that Trump executes that "Russian style" of negotiations to Ukraine and Europe only, not to Russia. His companions openly supports pro-Russian AFD in the upcoming German elections.
I recommend to read Gabrielius Landsbergis's comment https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1890824575937548620 : "President Trump will dump this dead cat deal at Europe's door and say take it or leave it. Then it's up to Europe to decide whether or not to stick up for Ukraine and support rejection of the deal."
This is, in a way, good - he sees that he can only sell a big victory to his population - one which he will never be able to achieve. Thus he can be squeezed between his population and RU's inability to win the war
No, I don't think so. It is not about the population. It is the messianic ideas of Putin himself. Putin wants the whole Ukraine because anything else means his dream of Great Russian Empire is dead. He needs Ukrainians to stop being Ukrainians and returning back to being Russians who say "R" in a funny way.
Maybe I missed the sarcasm, but I don't see any good news regarding Trump meeting Putin. Just look at the Taliban negotiations, they were basically don't do anything until the US has gone. Plus he loves a dictator, the whole power thing gets him horny. Also he sees a massive cost to the US in keeping the war going. The Europeans just don't have the political will to fill the 50% shortfall in funding for Ukraine. Then you have the Ukrainian population; many of them are war-weary. You get the general sense that the war in Ukraine is being fought by 50% of the population the rest are quietly ambivalent. It is a real shame, as I have a small itch in my toe that maybe things are starting to get better for the Ukrainians. They had a couple of wins near pokrovsk recently, got more shells and Russia mechanised unit's main vehicle now is the Lada Niva.
The problem is, Ukrainian army still have high losses and low training/quality of officers. And sometimes even personnel. And conscripts are not getting any better.
Things are not as bad for Russia as you may think reading some sources. Recently, for example, Russians have adopted optical wire-lead drones in scale (Ukrainians are less successful, so far, in wide adoption of this type of drone), which allows them to work around Ukrainian electronic warfare and be more successful in hunting Ukrainian artillery. Ukrainian artillery operates 10-20 kilometers behind front line, which is an effective range of wire drones, and number of confirmed losses seriously increased in the last weeks. What's worse, the main reason for losses is that Ukrainian operators are careless; Russian counter-battery radars are worse than Ukrainian, but Ukrainian artillery operators use the same roads, paths and same shooting places for their artillery, so Russians can track them for days until they scout their schedules and then ambush Ukrainian artillery on the same path. Obviously it is utterly against all regulations, to have repeat patterns for artillery, and I can't believe that people would be so lazy as to be actually suicidal, but they do. It is clearly seen in videos that Ukrainian artillery follows repeating patterns.
Russians don't need to break through Ukrainian lines. All they need is to grind through enough Ukrainians so that war-weariness would overcome resilience. It is not yet close to that, but it's a very long road ahead; many years to fight.
It is not obvious, yes. But we have some hard numbers: population of Russia is related to population of Ukraine as 4:1. Total losses (that means dead or wounded or sick who can't return to active duty, not just dead, and not counting lightly wounded who would return to active duty) of Russia and Ukraine are pretty consistently, as much as it can be counted, with surprisingly little changes over time, relate as 2:1 (Russia loses twice more men than Ukraine). It is reasonably to assume that to keep parity, Russia has to lose 4 times more men than Ukraine. In any other case, pure maths say that Ukraine's manpower will be exhausted before Russia's.
It is not as simple, of course. Both Ukraine and Russia lose less people than are coming to age each year, so losses can be replenished by new recruits. However, Russia will have more people remaining in workforce than Ukraine.
Etc, we can continue... But generally Putin's hope of grinding Ukraine down is not completely baseless.
I think russia as a state needs 4 times the number of people in Ukraine to be funtional though... So even a 2:1 ratio (which I think has an increasing trend) is not at all a guarantee of victory in the long run...
Of course! But "long run" may mean another decade of war. At least I think we should plan for another decade. Any earlier resolution would be a nice surprise.
An earlier resolution can be achieved by Ukraine & partners knuckling down and putting the hard work into making Ukraine's war machine efficient and very deadly. As you have often said, wishful thinking is a big issue - yes we'll take a black swan or turn for the worst in Russia any day, but plans can't be made based on that.
It is not completely baseless. But it depends on other things than sheer manpower. Both sides need infrastructure, production, energy etc. and Russia as the attacker needs to bring all this to the front. And then keep whatever they take. Ukraines strategy of fighting Russia via economy is not baseless either. And of course you need the will to go on. And neither Ukraine nor Russia has infinite will. So we have a very unclear situation where both parties reasonably can think they can force the other to give in.
So far, Russian economy is not in a serious danger (neither is Ukrainian economy, of course). I know all the numbers and I know that for a normal, non-war economy of a western country it would be seen as a disaster, but for Russia, for Russian economy, especially military-run economy, it is most certainly not.
As for infrastructure, it actually was improving in 2023-2024, compared to pre-war times, especially outside of Moscow-St.Piter. It is quite obvious why for everyone who knows how Russian infrastructure is funded - generally, infrastructure is funded by local governments who get their money from workers' wages and personal taxes, there was huuuuge increase in wages in wartime for poor regions, thus huge increase in local taxes, they were spent on infrastructure.
I've been in Kirov in January 2025, the city, its roads, infrastructure, small businesses in and around were noticeably better than in 2022, when I was there for the last time. I've seen it with my own eyes.
There are no shortages of fuel or energy, yet, prices are below inflation, roads are, as I've said, still better than in 2022.
The will of people in Russia... Well, first of all, Putin doesn't care about their will. If they open their mouths, they'll just lose their teeth to police baton, so they have no will. And secondly, people of Russia don't see the war. Don't feel it. At all. Whatever little they feel is adequately explained by propaganda. There is no tensions yet on that front.
The will of people of Ukraine - I'm optimistic here. Sure, popular opinion was sadly mishandled, but there is no way for Ukraine to even surrender, no matter what people would want. So Ukraine will fight on.
Generally, I don't see how the war may stop earlier than 4-5 years later. Putin thinks everything is going peachy and he really likes the war, so he will not stop.
Thanks for your analysis. Even though I hope you are wrong I can’t say I have any data to gain say you. I may hope for a collapse. Regarding the will of the people of Russia, I actually think there are limits, police brutality aside. But we are far from there. So you may unfortunately be right in your assessment of a few more years. But why is Putin so willing to talk to Trump, does he really believe he can get everything he wants? Especially if he likes the war?
If US stops its military support for Ukraine, Europe wont be sufficient. I’m not so angry with Trump who is doing what he promised and was to be expected but with the idiots in Europe who between guns and butter chose net zero and now we don’t have both. As if net zero (akin to the old-fashioned theoretical Western-style communism) can be achieved in a single country/region! When dealing with high energy costs, green policy layoffs, high regulations, who will want to spend in if he wants where to find one more cent to help ZSU!? The problem with the speech of JD Vance is that it had so many truths and that was why it pained the Merkellian idiots still in power in EU.
Yes, we know Trump has a track record of being great negotiator and also completing what he promises. Just remember the NPRK nuclear deal and successful negotiations on Afghanistan.
Well, first of all, never happened and fake news. :)
But that's exactly our point. Nobody is expecting anything from Trump because he is a piece of ... Nobody wants anything from him. We all knew how it will end when Americans voted for him (and, therefore, nobody expects much or anything at all from the USA, anymore.)
But we do consider European political elites to be not very stupid adults. Therefore, we demand from them to behave and make decisions like adults. You know what should be done - either do it, or at least do what you can to do it, or plain refuse to do it and seek another way. Take a position. :)
Thank you very much, Tom and Don. --- But already the USA and ruzzia are talking about lifting bilateral sanctions. No European government will resists this. In Germany I look and look and I see not even a fifth generation which sees ruzzia as a threat. The Greens and Volt yes. The FDP has some good people but ... Merkel's CDU is still proStuhlkreis incapable of saying that it contributed to shaping ruzzia as a colonial and terrorist entiry, as is Angela Merkel. The SPD is prouzzian and will be proruzzian. The AfD is a ruzzian party. Die Linke and BSW is proruzzian.
Only a retarded person can consider Russia to be an enemy of Germany. Somehow they are natural allies (German technologies+Russian resources). Sadly, Deep State is doing its best to ruin relations between 2 countries.
*rolls eyes* there is more in "natural allies" than resource exchange. Sure, it's deep state that ruined relations. :) Don't worry, I'll help Deep State as much as I can in this case.
Just like in 1922 the Treaty of Rapallo or in 1939 the Hitler-Stalin Pact ? No. Germany and ruzzia are not "natural" allies. ruzzia is an antisemitic, racist, dehumanized, violent, murdering, colonial, imperial cleptocracy, a pariah. It has no place in Europe. A pariah which has never reflected on its hideous, bloody past as a colonizer during Tsarism assassinating and plundering whole nations or as the spearhead of the USSR murdering millions and its own ruzzians to be never held responsible for its actions. Never forget Rudenko the Soviet chief prosecutor at the Nuremberg trials himself a massmurder of peasants and organizer of the Holodomor, who tried to ntegrate the massmurders by the NKVD in Katyn and other places into his accusation material. - The ruzzian federation which has massacered 250 000 Chechen civilians by terror and KGB methods. The ruzzian federation which has been invading its neighbours out of spite because their "empires" broke up. The ruzzian federation which is waging for three years a genocidal war of destruction against Ukraine. --- There is a lot of talk about geopolitics. But the breaking up of the criminal USSR and the thirst for liberty of the Ukrainians, the Moldavians and others, even the Azeris are waking up, ist about values : freedom, democracy, a functionung justice system ... People want to get out of the ruzzian swamps. Germany will leave the Schröders, Merkels, Steinmeiers ... behind. They have learnt their lesson. Something that ruzzians and their supporters not even have a notion of.
Germany has long hated Russia, with good reason. Germany did act on the naive hope EU could bring Russia into civilization; recall the iconic picture of Merkel lecturing Trump about Russia at G7. Russia's continued brutal attacks on countries that had escaped Russian slavery proved Germany / EU wrong about Putin, forever destroyed Merkel's diplomatic reputation, and sealed Russia's status as a pariah for another generation.
I hope and believe Tom is right about Trump's approach to Putin, Ukraine, and Europe.
Yes, kind of a love-hate relationship that killed something like 40 million of each other in the 20th century? These days it would be more like St Hildegard of Bingen and Atilla the Hun get married.
Sadly, two world wars were fought with millions killed. However that is an issue of our days. France and Germany fought many wars, so what? If setting apart Ukraine war and entailed comlications, there are no serious reasons for two countries to be unfriendly. Lack of cheap Russian resources hit badly Germany economy. Nord Stream was a perfect stable source of gas for Germany.
I fear you are fooling yourself. Germans woke up and now understands Putin is a brutal totalitarian who wants to re-enslave Europe. It will take a long time (perhaps more than a generation) after Putin is gone before Germany is fooled again.
Wrong. Germany ‘s and France’s relationship is built on trust. Which is possible because the aggressor has admitted its responsability. Something ruzzia is incapable of. Germany’s and ruzzia’s relations since 2000 have been built on lies, désinformation, victimisation, a distorted historical, narratif, by oligarchs, greed and the desire to hurt their neighbours. —-Building and living in a democracy is very difficult . It means to think, to discuss, to weigh arguments, to engage in civil society, to doubt. To take up the rights and tasks of a citizen. To take them seriously. To live in a criminal régime like the ruzzian one where terror and fear and violence reign, it is easy to live. You just follow the flow and the master, keep your mouth shut and your brain dead until you are an automatum. The ruzzians are walking on the millions of dead bodies they have been leaving behind without a single sentiment. You can see that in their incapacity to remember their history and reflect on the present outside of the path marked by the régime. —- Anybody who still has doubts about Nordstream can read the recent book by Thiele and Dobbert. One can only despair when one sees the facts.
Oh they will be, and I hope to see it one day, but it will take time. This is the order of things: 1. Russia loses strategically. 2. Russia faces decades or hardship in combination with increasing pressure and domination from China. 3. Eventually, Russia and Europe make up because it's in the best interests of both.
Neither Europe nor Russia have decades of time. The world is changing too fast.
Russia by no means could be a danger to Europe, neither military no politically. It has hardships to "digest" relative Ukraine, no way to think about smth more.
Europe has absolutely different troubles which have nothing to do with Russia. They were perfectly illustrated by US VP in his brilliant speech in Munich. Problem is that Deep State lackeys that rule Western Europe have certain tasks to accomplish, one of them is all in war with Russia around 2030.
I didn´t get what you mean with fifth generation but yesterday Merz gave Weidel a clear explanation of what he thinks about russia and a possible alliance with afd. Indeed you are right with the shaping but I hope the lernt the lesson. SPD is also absolutely not proruzzian but Scholz didn´t understand that he had to go so it will fall probably below the Greens. I trust a Grosse Koalition with the 3 can do better than the last government.
The SPD and Merkel’s CDU were and are proruzzian. They both have integrated and diffused all of ruzzian narratifs. The Northstream projects were proruzzian and antiUkraine and built against Western and CentralEuropean partners. The NS was conceived by the SPD and some Stasiofficers close to Putinboy. Steinmeier acted the project out and Merkel continued it.
Tom & Donald, as usual a thorough and excellent review of the situation in Ukraine. We are all very interested to see where this goes, I sure hope you are right.
I am, however, baffled. You do marvelous things to support the defense of a fledgling democracy in your neighborhood (Ukraine) against the aggressive, attacking, often anti-semitic totalitarian pariah (Putin.) Why do you not support the defense of the only democracy in the Middle East (Israel) against Putin's ally, the aggressive, attacking, and always anti-semitic totalitarian pariahs (Khamenei, Hamas, and Hezbollah?)
Claims that Israel is genocidal are ludicrous. If there was a genocide, the Arabs in Gaza would have been flattened along with their buildings, tunnels, and terrorists. Instead, by any measure, Gaza civilian lives lost has been historically low, even though Hamas counts their military losses as civilian losses AND Hamas used civilians and hostages as human shields more than any other major military ever.
Hoping Trump can help democracy triumph over totalitarianism in both theaters.
PS: Do you believe Syria is reverting to its pariah status as a totalitarian state supported by Russia and Iran? Or can Syria become like Egypt and Jordan, Islamic states who determine their own course, and coexist peacefully in the neighborhood?
It is good to read some slightly optimistic takes on the situation. I am rather more skeptical. At the moment I see Lavrov gleefully saying that Europe has no place, while the Russian ambassador to UN talks about their colleague «president Trump» and that there are some things the Ukrainians shouldn’t bother themselves with. I am really concerned that Trump is giving Putin what he couldn’t take. But what will happen when they finally talk is of course unknown. It is probably unknown to Trump as well.
Having said that, I agree that we should try to build something positive out of this. Yes, it is a wake up call to adulthood and we need to heed it. And nobody with power really has any good reputation so Europe is not especially bad here.
But Xi must be laughing his ass off. How can Taiwan now believe in USA as a credible partner for defense?
Regarding the news from the front, thanks for the update. Slightly more optimistic than usual.
Trump makes many noises but he îs also consistent:
1. China is the big enemy and it must be isolated and starved
2. US must reforma itself to fight China: no imigrației, re-industrialization and energy independence.
3. US must concentrate on China and abandon distractions like Afganistan or Ukraine.
Trump doesn't want a defeated Rusia which supplies and protects China with its nucclear forces.
He wants a fat, happy Russia which is friendly and has something to loose.
So he will deliver Ukraine, some NATO bases and a nice dinner to Putin.
This is what Nixon and Kissinger have done with China to isolate USSR. It was inconcevable then for american, chinese or russian people yet it was fully implementez.
He will attempt to deliver Ukraine, some NATO bases and a nice dinner to Putin.
But whether he does or not, is dependent on whether Europe is willing to develop an independent security architecture along with Ukraine, a collective "no thanks" to Trump. This is the big question - Europe's governments understand the need for this - can they win their populations over to make the sacrifices? In order to do this, the populations need to value something - call it 'freedom', or whatever - more than the things they will need to sacrifice. Forget arguments about industrial base, supply chains and what not. The only thing really lacking is political will. If there is the will, the rest will work itself out. Buy weapons from America if you need to.
But I agree on all your points. It's just a matter of whether Europe & Ukraine (which will continue to become more aligned as the USA pushes them away) will let this happen.
Ukraine is not his to deliver. At least this is my understanding of reality. I may be wrong, it's a multifaceted situation; there may exist scenarios where Trump is capable of eventual, over couple of years, delivery of Ukraine to Russia. But I think those scenarios are low probability.
I try to say this in a 40 second video. I'm an American, but gotta call it as I see it ;) https://youtube.com/shorts/0SFxVwV6ayE?si=VErxd72SjKFtht6r
Gock, gock... ;-)
I have no use for Trump's f***ing cabinet. Losers and proto-fascists, the whole lot of them. Liars just like their convicted felon of a national leader is. Don't expect anything good to come out of this Administration, unless of course, one of them occasionally screws up in reverse ... accidentally! Europe--get your act together; you are pretty much on your own for a while.
I wonder how viable is the suggestion that Canada join the EU and say f*** off Trumpist America?
Right now IMHO we Americans are living in a political looney bin with the inmates in charge and the staff incarcerated in a Kafka-esque nightmare.
Nearly all Americans think the current situation is straight out of Kafka. The debate is whether Trump & DOGE will fix it or make it worse. Few can do anything but wait to see what happens in the limited time they have to prove themselves.
FWIW I expect mixed results. DOGE has already publicized waste and blown things up that has actual merit. We shall see what waste will be excised forever and what good will remain.
What really got to me was a statement from a MAGA-crazy redneck who stated in a youtube video I watched recently, "I trust Trump. I am loyal to Trump." I took the standard oath of loyalty to the United States Constitution several times in my life, not to any president however much I may have liked the guy. Certainly not to this narcissist! I never heard the same such idiotic remark even from a liberal weenie Kamala crazy supporter (I am not liberal as you may surmise from this. **LOL** ). Frankly, both major American political parties are hugely messed up, but the Republicans are worse. Furthermore, the Republicans, even the non-MAGAs are turning themselves into fascists.
The waste that DOGE has claimed to have found has yet to be published publically with regard to detailed data. The way they have gone about it--"Kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out"--potentially has legal issues. Civil Service regulations IMHO seem to have been bypassed. I am a retired Civil Servant in addition to being retired USNR. I resent so much of the claims made by DOGE about civil servants which has been authorized and enabled by a convicted felon, inveterate liar, and toxic narcissist. He reminds me of Hitler. OK, he isn't gassing Jews, political prisoners, et. al. (yet). Likely never will, but he has the power given to him by nearly half the voting electorate to run amuck. He is also a f***ing moron as Rex Tillerson has been reported to have said.
I fear that the Trumpistas in gov't are channeling Gen. George McClellan of the U.S. Civil War. They may end up snatching defeat from the eventual jaws of victory in Ukraine.
Sorry for the long jeremiad. The daily news about Trump and his "wonderful" U.S. Cabinet secretaries are just too weird to believe.
Every politician has support from crazies.
DOGE has published lists of crazy wasteful USAid spending. Some news bubbles ignore the examples because few clicks from their audiences. Valid complaints about DOGE include that the most publicized examples (so far) are not big beer. One list of ~20 wasteful projects totaled "just" $180M. Now staffers from past D and R administrations post they regret they did not root out the fraud and waste DOGE is taking credit for. Another complaint is DOGE may be throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
We don't know what Trump and Putin have discussed. Some think Trump is telling Putin to leave Ukraine or suffer the consequences. Others think Trump will abandon Ukraine. We shall see.
What you said about DOGE I perceive is exactly correct: they may be throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
What I have seen of Trump's behavior for decades--e.g., the Trump organization screwed over one of my family member's business of installing acoustic panels in comercial buildings through failure to pay bills on time if ever and then declaring bankruptcy; vintage Trump behavior--in my view has not changed much unto today. His behavior is erratic and his pronuncements & decisions have no detailed planning behind them. I perceive that just about everything he does is superficial, yet the results potentially could be catastrophic for somebody or some nation, etc.
The cynic in me believes that all politicians are liars basically. Trump, however, takes lying into another dimension entirely! His lies are inveterate and very well may be pathological (particularly dangerous). Joseph Goebbels would be so proud had Trump been his protege. We are in for a real $hit storm for the next 2 to 4 years.
Note, that Trump executes that "Russian style" of negotiations to Ukraine and Europe only, not to Russia. His companions openly supports pro-Russian AFD in the upcoming German elections.
I recommend to read Gabrielius Landsbergis's comment https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1890824575937548620 : "President Trump will dump this dead cat deal at Europe's door and say take it or leave it. Then it's up to Europe to decide whether or not to stick up for Ukraine and support rejection of the deal."
And also remark about China stake.
Fortunately, Putin is dumbhead too, he apparently want whole Ukraine, still.
This is, in a way, good - he sees that he can only sell a big victory to his population - one which he will never be able to achieve. Thus he can be squeezed between his population and RU's inability to win the war
No, I don't think so. It is not about the population. It is the messianic ideas of Putin himself. Putin wants the whole Ukraine because anything else means his dream of Great Russian Empire is dead. He needs Ukrainians to stop being Ukrainians and returning back to being Russians who say "R" in a funny way.
Maybe I missed the sarcasm, but I don't see any good news regarding Trump meeting Putin. Just look at the Taliban negotiations, they were basically don't do anything until the US has gone. Plus he loves a dictator, the whole power thing gets him horny. Also he sees a massive cost to the US in keeping the war going. The Europeans just don't have the political will to fill the 50% shortfall in funding for Ukraine. Then you have the Ukrainian population; many of them are war-weary. You get the general sense that the war in Ukraine is being fought by 50% of the population the rest are quietly ambivalent. It is a real shame, as I have a small itch in my toe that maybe things are starting to get better for the Ukrainians. They had a couple of wins near pokrovsk recently, got more shells and Russia mechanised unit's main vehicle now is the Lada Niva.
The problem is, Ukrainian army still have high losses and low training/quality of officers. And sometimes even personnel. And conscripts are not getting any better.
Things are not as bad for Russia as you may think reading some sources. Recently, for example, Russians have adopted optical wire-lead drones in scale (Ukrainians are less successful, so far, in wide adoption of this type of drone), which allows them to work around Ukrainian electronic warfare and be more successful in hunting Ukrainian artillery. Ukrainian artillery operates 10-20 kilometers behind front line, which is an effective range of wire drones, and number of confirmed losses seriously increased in the last weeks. What's worse, the main reason for losses is that Ukrainian operators are careless; Russian counter-battery radars are worse than Ukrainian, but Ukrainian artillery operators use the same roads, paths and same shooting places for their artillery, so Russians can track them for days until they scout their schedules and then ambush Ukrainian artillery on the same path. Obviously it is utterly against all regulations, to have repeat patterns for artillery, and I can't believe that people would be so lazy as to be actually suicidal, but they do. It is clearly seen in videos that Ukrainian artillery follows repeating patterns.
Russians don't need to break through Ukrainian lines. All they need is to grind through enough Ukrainians so that war-weariness would overcome resilience. It is not yet close to that, but it's a very long road ahead; many years to fight.
In such attrition wars it's not obvious which party would exhaust sooner in advance.
It is not obvious, yes. But we have some hard numbers: population of Russia is related to population of Ukraine as 4:1. Total losses (that means dead or wounded or sick who can't return to active duty, not just dead, and not counting lightly wounded who would return to active duty) of Russia and Ukraine are pretty consistently, as much as it can be counted, with surprisingly little changes over time, relate as 2:1 (Russia loses twice more men than Ukraine). It is reasonably to assume that to keep parity, Russia has to lose 4 times more men than Ukraine. In any other case, pure maths say that Ukraine's manpower will be exhausted before Russia's.
It is not as simple, of course. Both Ukraine and Russia lose less people than are coming to age each year, so losses can be replenished by new recruits. However, Russia will have more people remaining in workforce than Ukraine.
Etc, we can continue... But generally Putin's hope of grinding Ukraine down is not completely baseless.
I think russia as a state needs 4 times the number of people in Ukraine to be funtional though... So even a 2:1 ratio (which I think has an increasing trend) is not at all a guarantee of victory in the long run...
Of course! But "long run" may mean another decade of war. At least I think we should plan for another decade. Any earlier resolution would be a nice surprise.
An earlier resolution can be achieved by Ukraine & partners knuckling down and putting the hard work into making Ukraine's war machine efficient and very deadly. As you have often said, wishful thinking is a big issue - yes we'll take a black swan or turn for the worst in Russia any day, but plans can't be made based on that.
It is not completely baseless. But it depends on other things than sheer manpower. Both sides need infrastructure, production, energy etc. and Russia as the attacker needs to bring all this to the front. And then keep whatever they take. Ukraines strategy of fighting Russia via economy is not baseless either. And of course you need the will to go on. And neither Ukraine nor Russia has infinite will. So we have a very unclear situation where both parties reasonably can think they can force the other to give in.
So far, Russian economy is not in a serious danger (neither is Ukrainian economy, of course). I know all the numbers and I know that for a normal, non-war economy of a western country it would be seen as a disaster, but for Russia, for Russian economy, especially military-run economy, it is most certainly not.
As for infrastructure, it actually was improving in 2023-2024, compared to pre-war times, especially outside of Moscow-St.Piter. It is quite obvious why for everyone who knows how Russian infrastructure is funded - generally, infrastructure is funded by local governments who get their money from workers' wages and personal taxes, there was huuuuge increase in wages in wartime for poor regions, thus huge increase in local taxes, they were spent on infrastructure.
I've been in Kirov in January 2025, the city, its roads, infrastructure, small businesses in and around were noticeably better than in 2022, when I was there for the last time. I've seen it with my own eyes.
There are no shortages of fuel or energy, yet, prices are below inflation, roads are, as I've said, still better than in 2022.
The will of people in Russia... Well, first of all, Putin doesn't care about their will. If they open their mouths, they'll just lose their teeth to police baton, so they have no will. And secondly, people of Russia don't see the war. Don't feel it. At all. Whatever little they feel is adequately explained by propaganda. There is no tensions yet on that front.
The will of people of Ukraine - I'm optimistic here. Sure, popular opinion was sadly mishandled, but there is no way for Ukraine to even surrender, no matter what people would want. So Ukraine will fight on.
Generally, I don't see how the war may stop earlier than 4-5 years later. Putin thinks everything is going peachy and he really likes the war, so he will not stop.
Thanks for your analysis. Even though I hope you are wrong I can’t say I have any data to gain say you. I may hope for a collapse. Regarding the will of the people of Russia, I actually think there are limits, police brutality aside. But we are far from there. So you may unfortunately be right in your assessment of a few more years. But why is Putin so willing to talk to Trump, does he really believe he can get everything he wants? Especially if he likes the war?
The three-part video of the Russian assault in Siversk: https://x.com/small10space/status/1889637111910773019
If US stops its military support for Ukraine, Europe wont be sufficient. I’m not so angry with Trump who is doing what he promised and was to be expected but with the idiots in Europe who between guns and butter chose net zero and now we don’t have both. As if net zero (akin to the old-fashioned theoretical Western-style communism) can be achieved in a single country/region! When dealing with high energy costs, green policy layoffs, high regulations, who will want to spend in if he wants where to find one more cent to help ZSU!? The problem with the speech of JD Vance is that it had so many truths and that was why it pained the Merkellian idiots still in power in EU.
Yes, we know Trump has a track record of being great negotiator and also completing what he promises. Just remember the NPRK nuclear deal and successful negotiations on Afghanistan.
Well, first of all, never happened and fake news. :)
But that's exactly our point. Nobody is expecting anything from Trump because he is a piece of ... Nobody wants anything from him. We all knew how it will end when Americans voted for him (and, therefore, nobody expects much or anything at all from the USA, anymore.)
But we do consider European political elites to be not very stupid adults. Therefore, we demand from them to behave and make decisions like adults. You know what should be done - either do it, or at least do what you can to do it, or plain refuse to do it and seek another way. Take a position. :)
Thank you very much, Tom and Don. --- But already the USA and ruzzia are talking about lifting bilateral sanctions. No European government will resists this. In Germany I look and look and I see not even a fifth generation which sees ruzzia as a threat. The Greens and Volt yes. The FDP has some good people but ... Merkel's CDU is still proStuhlkreis incapable of saying that it contributed to shaping ruzzia as a colonial and terrorist entiry, as is Angela Merkel. The SPD is prouzzian and will be proruzzian. The AfD is a ruzzian party. Die Linke and BSW is proruzzian.
Only a retarded person can consider Russia to be an enemy of Germany. Somehow they are natural allies (German technologies+Russian resources). Sadly, Deep State is doing its best to ruin relations between 2 countries.
*rolls eyes* there is more in "natural allies" than resource exchange. Sure, it's deep state that ruined relations. :) Don't worry, I'll help Deep State as much as I can in this case.
Just like in 1922 the Treaty of Rapallo or in 1939 the Hitler-Stalin Pact ? No. Germany and ruzzia are not "natural" allies. ruzzia is an antisemitic, racist, dehumanized, violent, murdering, colonial, imperial cleptocracy, a pariah. It has no place in Europe. A pariah which has never reflected on its hideous, bloody past as a colonizer during Tsarism assassinating and plundering whole nations or as the spearhead of the USSR murdering millions and its own ruzzians to be never held responsible for its actions. Never forget Rudenko the Soviet chief prosecutor at the Nuremberg trials himself a massmurder of peasants and organizer of the Holodomor, who tried to ntegrate the massmurders by the NKVD in Katyn and other places into his accusation material. - The ruzzian federation which has massacered 250 000 Chechen civilians by terror and KGB methods. The ruzzian federation which has been invading its neighbours out of spite because their "empires" broke up. The ruzzian federation which is waging for three years a genocidal war of destruction against Ukraine. --- There is a lot of talk about geopolitics. But the breaking up of the criminal USSR and the thirst for liberty of the Ukrainians, the Moldavians and others, even the Azeris are waking up, ist about values : freedom, democracy, a functionung justice system ... People want to get out of the ruzzian swamps. Germany will leave the Schröders, Merkels, Steinmeiers ... behind. They have learnt their lesson. Something that ruzzians and their supporters not even have a notion of.
Yes, they can be natural allies only when Russia undergoes a societal transformation to be more like Germany in nature.
Germany has long hated Russia, with good reason. Germany did act on the naive hope EU could bring Russia into civilization; recall the iconic picture of Merkel lecturing Trump about Russia at G7. Russia's continued brutal attacks on countries that had escaped Russian slavery proved Germany / EU wrong about Putin, forever destroyed Merkel's diplomatic reputation, and sealed Russia's status as a pariah for another generation.
I hope and believe Tom is right about Trump's approach to Putin, Ukraine, and Europe.
I hope about Trump. Don’t believe, but we shall see.
Yes, kind of a love-hate relationship that killed something like 40 million of each other in the 20th century? These days it would be more like St Hildegard of Bingen and Atilla the Hun get married.
Sadly, two world wars were fought with millions killed. However that is an issue of our days. France and Germany fought many wars, so what? If setting apart Ukraine war and entailed comlications, there are no serious reasons for two countries to be unfriendly. Lack of cheap Russian resources hit badly Germany economy. Nord Stream was a perfect stable source of gas for Germany.
I fear you are fooling yourself. Germans woke up and now understands Putin is a brutal totalitarian who wants to re-enslave Europe. It will take a long time (perhaps more than a generation) after Putin is gone before Germany is fooled again.
You're not wrong TU-16.
Wrong. Germany ‘s and France’s relationship is built on trust. Which is possible because the aggressor has admitted its responsability. Something ruzzia is incapable of. Germany’s and ruzzia’s relations since 2000 have been built on lies, désinformation, victimisation, a distorted historical, narratif, by oligarchs, greed and the desire to hurt their neighbours. —-Building and living in a democracy is very difficult . It means to think, to discuss, to weigh arguments, to engage in civil society, to doubt. To take up the rights and tasks of a citizen. To take them seriously. To live in a criminal régime like the ruzzian one where terror and fear and violence reign, it is easy to live. You just follow the flow and the master, keep your mouth shut and your brain dead until you are an automatum. The ruzzians are walking on the millions of dead bodies they have been leaving behind without a single sentiment. You can see that in their incapacity to remember their history and reflect on the present outside of the path marked by the régime. —- Anybody who still has doubts about Nordstream can read the recent book by Thiele and Dobbert. One can only despair when one sees the facts.
As per above Russia must change first before this becomes a possibility
As per my other reply - it can happen, but certain positive changes need to happen in Russia first.
Oh they will be, and I hope to see it one day, but it will take time. This is the order of things: 1. Russia loses strategically. 2. Russia faces decades or hardship in combination with increasing pressure and domination from China. 3. Eventually, Russia and Europe make up because it's in the best interests of both.
Neither Europe nor Russia have decades of time. The world is changing too fast.
Russia by no means could be a danger to Europe, neither military no politically. It has hardships to "digest" relative Ukraine, no way to think about smth more.
Europe has absolutely different troubles which have nothing to do with Russia. They were perfectly illustrated by US VP in his brilliant speech in Munich. Problem is that Deep State lackeys that rule Western Europe have certain tasks to accomplish, one of them is all in war with Russia around 2030.
I didn´t get what you mean with fifth generation but yesterday Merz gave Weidel a clear explanation of what he thinks about russia and a possible alliance with afd. Indeed you are right with the shaping but I hope the lernt the lesson. SPD is also absolutely not proruzzian but Scholz didn´t understand that he had to go so it will fall probably below the Greens. I trust a Grosse Koalition with the 3 can do better than the last government.
The SPD and Merkel’s CDU were and are proruzzian. They both have integrated and diffused all of ruzzian narratifs. The Northstream projects were proruzzian and antiUkraine and built against Western and CentralEuropean partners. The NS was conceived by the SPD and some Stasiofficers close to Putinboy. Steinmeier acted the project out and Merkel continued it.
Thanks for your time Dom and Tom.
Tom & Donald, as usual a thorough and excellent review of the situation in Ukraine. We are all very interested to see where this goes, I sure hope you are right.
I am, however, baffled. You do marvelous things to support the defense of a fledgling democracy in your neighborhood (Ukraine) against the aggressive, attacking, often anti-semitic totalitarian pariah (Putin.) Why do you not support the defense of the only democracy in the Middle East (Israel) against Putin's ally, the aggressive, attacking, and always anti-semitic totalitarian pariahs (Khamenei, Hamas, and Hezbollah?)
Claims that Israel is genocidal are ludicrous. If there was a genocide, the Arabs in Gaza would have been flattened along with their buildings, tunnels, and terrorists. Instead, by any measure, Gaza civilian lives lost has been historically low, even though Hamas counts their military losses as civilian losses AND Hamas used civilians and hostages as human shields more than any other major military ever.
Hoping Trump can help democracy triumph over totalitarianism in both theaters.
PS: Do you believe Syria is reverting to its pariah status as a totalitarian state supported by Russia and Iran? Or can Syria become like Egypt and Jordan, Islamic states who determine their own course, and coexist peacefully in the neighborhood?
It is good to read some slightly optimistic takes on the situation. I am rather more skeptical. At the moment I see Lavrov gleefully saying that Europe has no place, while the Russian ambassador to UN talks about their colleague «president Trump» and that there are some things the Ukrainians shouldn’t bother themselves with. I am really concerned that Trump is giving Putin what he couldn’t take. But what will happen when they finally talk is of course unknown. It is probably unknown to Trump as well.
Having said that, I agree that we should try to build something positive out of this. Yes, it is a wake up call to adulthood and we need to heed it. And nobody with power really has any good reputation so Europe is not especially bad here.
But Xi must be laughing his ass off. How can Taiwan now believe in USA as a credible partner for defense?
Regarding the news from the front, thanks for the update. Slightly more optimistic than usual.
Trump makes many noises but he îs also consistent:
1. China is the big enemy and it must be isolated and starved
2. US must reforma itself to fight China: no imigrației, re-industrialization and energy independence.
3. US must concentrate on China and abandon distractions like Afganistan or Ukraine.
Trump doesn't want a defeated Rusia which supplies and protects China with its nucclear forces.
He wants a fat, happy Russia which is friendly and has something to loose.
So he will deliver Ukraine, some NATO bases and a nice dinner to Putin.
This is what Nixon and Kissinger have done with China to isolate USSR. It was inconcevable then for american, chinese or russian people yet it was fully implementez.
He will attempt to deliver Ukraine, some NATO bases and a nice dinner to Putin.
But whether he does or not, is dependent on whether Europe is willing to develop an independent security architecture along with Ukraine, a collective "no thanks" to Trump. This is the big question - Europe's governments understand the need for this - can they win their populations over to make the sacrifices? In order to do this, the populations need to value something - call it 'freedom', or whatever - more than the things they will need to sacrifice. Forget arguments about industrial base, supply chains and what not. The only thing really lacking is political will. If there is the will, the rest will work itself out. Buy weapons from America if you need to.
But I agree on all your points. It's just a matter of whether Europe & Ukraine (which will continue to become more aligned as the USA pushes them away) will let this happen.
Ukraine is not his to deliver. At least this is my understanding of reality. I may be wrong, it's a multifaceted situation; there may exist scenarios where Trump is capable of eventual, over couple of years, delivery of Ukraine to Russia. But I think those scenarios are low probability.