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CrazyL's avatar

Слава Україні!

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Peter's avatar

That drone described as exploding before hitting the target is (I assume) the new Lancet with LIDAR technology allowing it to go through nets & mesh

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Donald Hill's avatar

Very likely.

For those unaware, LIDAR is an acronym for Light Detection and Ranging. Depending on the model, it emits a laser beam 20k to several million times per second. The return signal acts similar to a radar, creating an image and providing a location of an object.

LIDAR has been used by planes flying over the thick jungles of Mexico to locate previously unknown Mayan buildings. Even though the eye cannot see through the trees, there are small gaps in the leaves that allow the laser to pass unobstructed to the ground-level object. So even though a plane is flying a couple hundred kph, the thousands or millions of laser beams and returns constructs a complete 3D picture of the object on the ground as the plane moves.

In the same way, Lancets with LIDAR can easily see through camouflage netting or foliage placed over a vehicle. These Lancets are also equipped with artificial intelligence, so they fly independently to an area, locate a target and attack it. During the mission, the drone is flying independently from any pilot, so it is immune to the effects of jamming. Ukraine is also developing drones with these capabilities.

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Peter's avatar

Ohh I thought they use LIDAR as a proximity warhead so that the drone won't get tangled in net. Thanks for the info!

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Donald Hill's avatar

The operator of the Lancet 3 drone can fire the warhead remotely if caught in a net. LIDAR is very good at measuring precise distances very quickly, so it could possibly serve that function in an autonomous AI drone, but I haven't seen any documentation that precisely says that LIDAR is used in that function. I have seen it written that Russia has a new drone that can be detonated before hitting a net.

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asfasdfsadf's avatar

are you sure they use what you describe here? sounds too advanced.

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Donald Hill's avatar

Ukraine has been developing the same kind of drones for the same reasons. Their AI can distinguish and prioritize between different vehicles. They cost about $30-35k instead of $400, but it's still cheaper than a Javelin. The biggest issue for Russia isn't the technology, but whether they can import the components. And it seems that is not an issue, after all.

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asfasdfsadf's avatar

Yeah, ive heared Ua is doing the same but still i do not believe it is plausible in any near future. Or maybe i just dont want to believe because otherwise it all becomes very close to Terminator... which is scary.

Can you share a source for ru ai drones?

About the price of javelin.

i was abou to say you are wrong but then checked the internet and found out that -- According to the U.S. Army’s 2023 budget for missile procurement, the cost for a single Javelin all-up round – that is, one missile – is $197,884.--. What can I say... Holly cow...(((

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Donald Hill's avatar

I'll be using these in next week's update:

https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/23923#:~:text=Russia%20claims%20to%20now%20equip,autonomously%20discern%20and%20destroy%20targets.

https://ts2.shop/en/posts/uav-lancet-nga-pha-luoi-thep-bao-ve-thiet-giap-ukraine

When you look at it, the US defesne budget is pretty staggering. Drones, AT weapons, everything tends towards high end costs and there are many high-quality weapons. But this conflict shows you can have effective weapons at a much lower cost and six of those drones can get more accomplished than one of those Javelins. It's a different way of looking at things, particularly when comparing assymetrical wars to long-term near-peer wars.

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Denys's avatar

Check the functionality of your old camera. It should have face detection (to reverse the red eyes effect) and object tracking (to stay focused on whatever you are trying to capture on video). That's half of the tech.

The other half is image recognition, and there are many tutorials over the web https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/image-classification-with-tf-keras-introductory-tutorial-7e0ebb73d044

This is no sci-fi or even hi-tech for a decade already.

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asfasdfsadf's avatar

sounds vicious.

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Denys's avatar

The amount probably includes the cost of non-industrial scale (manual labor) production for the drone hull and superprofit. A AI and image recognition runs on video-card-like chips that cost below $1000, thus there is no way for a self-driving drone's cost to jump from $400 to $30k. It is likely that FPV drones that Ukraine produces are also quite expensive due to that lack of scale effect (industrial plants like those that Russia uses to produce Lancets and Shaheds).

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Denys's avatar

Yandex worked on self-driving cars in late 2010s. Thus they have the image recognition and AI tech.

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Donald Hill's avatar

I don't have any knowledge on these systems beyond what I read, but it seems that components for the LIDAR system drives the price up in addition to the factors you mention. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TWrVvdKrRk

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Denys's avatar

Lidars are expensive (again probably below $1000), but they are not that much involved in the main AI pipeline.

The AI takes pictures of the ground, chooses a target, and sends the drone towards the target. A lidar may be good for the final stages of flight to make the thing detonate right before the impact (so that anti-drone nets have no effect) or to help it maneuver between trees, but it is not a part of the image recognition or target selection tech (the Terminator thing).

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Donald Hill's avatar

From what I read, the tactical grade Inertial Measurement Units of the LIDAR system range from $5-50k. I have no idea if an industrial grade IMU at $1k would be sufficient for the task.

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Engerl's avatar

Thank you very much.

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Gary Behrens's avatar

Thanks Don #1 done on to #2

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Donald Hill's avatar

The following videos didn't make it into this post:

The drone unit video in the Bakhmut section.

https://youtu.be/Rcu8Igu1b3g

In the Avdiivka section, the 47th Brigade destroys a Russian column.

https://youtu.be/rZD9M_ICzJI

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Ukrainosaurus's avatar

Good to have you back Tom. Hope you hand a few enjoyable days, preferably with a “war/internet” detox 🙃

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RSentongo's avatar

Great post as always thank you Don!!

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Edu Lopez's avatar

Heartily thanks for your efforts, Don. Plenty of these vids and links used to be missed in the net maelstrom.

But we may count on you for rescuing it. Keep on with the good job!

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