22 Comments

Could it be that such a sea drone shot a missile either directly at A-50/Il-22 or at some other target or just at a high altitude which in turn turned the Russian anti-aircraft systems on and they shot down their own planes?

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I doubt Ukrainian sea drones could have reached Azov sea yet.

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It’s pure speculation and I don’t know the distances but the sea drone needn’t be in Azov Sea. If it shoots a missile over the Crimea bridge (from the other side) while the planes are passing over (which allegedly have similar daily routes) and thus triggers the Russian air defenses ....

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Reports now indicate that the planes were flying near the northern coast of the Azov Sea and within range of a Patriot battery.

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Yes, I saw them. Ultimately we are coming to the main suspect - Patriot

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There are barriers that are manned by the Kerch bridge.

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A simple MANPADS missile, such as a Stinger, can reach an altitude of 3800 m. Those planes fly at 9000+ m. If you're using missiles that NASAMS use then you'll need acquisition and targeting radars, too.

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One theory going around is as the A50 was hit "shortly after takeoff" it was hit by a MANPAD from a Ukraine sabotage group near the airfield.

But that does not explain the IL-22.

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More details indicate they were close to the coast of the Azov Sea and were ambushed by a Patriot system after observing their patrol patterns for a while.

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Patriot range must be far more than I thought.

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The PAC-3 is 45 km. The PAC-2 is 160 km.

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I know I just find it hard to believe Ukraine would bring a PAC so close to the frontline.

Of course an A 50 is a valuable target and as TC suggested maybe they found smart ways to limit their risks.

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Thanks Don!

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Both sides are fighting a Berlin'45 type war, that is why they have run into stalemate trench warfare. No Blitzkrieg or mobile warfare, their doctrine is 50 years outdated!

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Thank you very much.

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Does anyone know organisations/people who trying to persuade their governments to gave arrested russian funds to Ukraine? If yes, please give me contacts. Region of interest - Europe.

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The US did not ran out of funds to ship munitions to Ukraine.

Biden Administration ran out of common sense to stop supporting Ukraine while having $4.2 billion leftover in Presidential Drawdown Authority allowance.

They claim they ran out of replenishment funds.

That is true.

They used all of $25.9 billion appropriated replenishment finds.

They claim we cannot ship munitions without replenishment.

That is a BOOLSH1T!

Administration sent to Ukraine only $19.7 billion worth of weapons using Presidential Drawdown Authority out of $25.5 billion appropriated by the Congress.

Biden Administration decided not to notify Congress about PDA leftover in 2022 and let $1.6 billion PDA allowance expire on October 1st 2022.

But after "accountant error" was discovered inMay 2023, it added back $6.2 billion to PDA allowance funds.

Administration is sitting on $4.2 billion PDA allowance leftover.

They claim they cannot send anything because they run out of replenishment.

But they ran out of replenishment because they were spending it FASTER than shipping military aid to Ukraine.

Replenishment and allowance funds are INDEPENDENT from one another, which is why they spent all $25.9 billion before shipping munitions worth $25.5 to Ukraine.

Imagine if Administration shipped $10 billion or $5 billion worth of PDA instead of $19.7 billion. What would stop Administration from say they cannot support Ukraine?

Lack of Stinger missiles and Javelins? US has many more munitions to offer Ukraine starting from our F-15s or F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets and long range missiles. Much needed for Ukraine.

Administration can ship all $4.2 billion right away.

We scrape so many kinds munitions this year!

$4.2 billion is a mere 0.5% of Defense Budget. It will not be replenished until several year from now anyway. They say they are worrying about National Security. What a hypocrisy. Biden Administration is using Ukraine as a political bargaining chip!

They could have offered Ukraine-only military aid bill and it would pass in a blink. But instead Administration put a lot of controversial things into a single bill and now claims Congress does not want to pass it.

You authored that bill, Biden Administration, not Appropriations Committee!

Scrapping actually costs taxpayer money.

And yet, Administration decided not to use these $4.2 billion and not to ship old munitions to Ukraine

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Both the replenishment and drawdown funds have been expended. The administration didn't combine the Ukrainian aid, Israeli aid and border reform bill, the Speaker of the House did. This is the reality.

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Спасибо

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Tom , Donald what do you know about new A 100 plane?

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According to Tom there was only one built.

It was supposed to enter service this year but there is little information about that date.

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Do you know Skynex would be deployed near frontlines to protect soldiers from UAVs and FPVs or in the rear to protect against Shahed drones and cruise missiles?

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