Don's Weekly, 15 April 2025: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Unknown Location

Drones that use fiber optic cables are immune to electronic warfare, but if you observe the cable being unwound as the drone flies by you can just break the cable.

This is not the first time a soldier decided to swing at a drone that detonates on impact.

Wherever the 36th Marine Brigade is located, Kriegsforscher said they were able to destroy two tanks and a bridging unit but it’s very boring compared to Kursk, and he’s glad.

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Russia

Syrsky said that a Tu-22M3 bomber was destroyed by a drone shortly after it landed. No details or subsequent confirmation were provided.

Near Moscow, a Russian helicopter is mistaken for a drone and engaged by ground fire. There are some reports that it was shot down but it’s more likely that it came away.

Near the Engels airbase in Saratov a fire broke out but the origins of the blaze are not yet known.

Russia’s only manufacturing plant for optical fibre is located in Saransk, 700 km from Ukraine, and produces four million km of fibre each year. It was hit by drones during the night and the following day. The same night, two buildings of an explosives factory were hit in Chapayevsk, where they produced 30,000 tons of explosives each year. Chapayevsk is 900 km from Ukraine but Russian TV speculated that the drones may have traveled up to 1500 km in order to avoid air defenses.

Statements by Russia and Trump have a certain amount of overlap.

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Ukraine

Russia knows when people go to church and they hit Sumy with ballistic missiles at that time. At the time of this post, there were at least 34 dead and 117 wounded, children among them. But Rubio said it was a reminder of why Trump is putting so much time and effort into trying to end this war, so at least there’s that. No doubt Trump will redouble his efforts with more threats and pressure on Ukraine.

The aftermath of the attack on Sumy. Trump’s envoy Witkoff greeting Putin with his hand on his heart.

A 26-year-old Ukrainian fighter-pilot (and veteran-Su-25-flier) was killed when his F-16 was shot down by a surface-to-air missile. Friendly fire was ruled out but the PSU is still ‘trying to investigate’ - read: it would not admit - what has got its jet and the pilot: a Russians used an S-400 ground-to-air or an R-37 air-to-air missile. This is the second loss of an F-16. The first was shot down in August 2024 by own surface-to-air missiles.

A warehouse in Kyiv was damaged by a Shahed drone. About 300 meters away from an aerodrome.

To improve efficiency and increase Ukraine’s self-sufficiency, digital drawings and CAD files of military equipment will be sent so Ukraine can produce replacement parts with 3D printing.

In the Kyiv region, two public relations specialists were arrested for spreading propaganda on Russia’s orders across 200 websites.

The loss of the Pokrovsk mining operation left Ukraine short of coking coal needed for the production of steel. They will receive 80,000 tons of it from the US every month, creating US jobs and tax revenue. United Coal Company is providing the coke and is based in the Appalachian mountains. It was bought by the Ukrainian steelmaker Metinvest in 2009.

The 81st Airborne Brigade near Siversk and the 157th Mechanized Brigade near Pokrovsk each captured a Chinese citizen fighting for Russia. Ukraine believes there are at least 155 Chinese in the Russian army. Although China denies any of its citizens are fighting on behalf, Chinese and other nationalities have been fighting in small numbers for a long time. Here are some videos made by a Chinese national shortly before he died near Zaporizhzhia in November 2023.

Last May, the UK sent the Minewolf 370 and Croatia sent the unmanned MV-4 to demine fields. Last October, Italy sent the unmanned PT-300 and Croatia sent the larger unmanned MV-10 demining vehicles. Japan now sent the BM307-V34, another remote demining machine that can function in dense thickets.

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Oil prices are more stable but Russia could lose 2.5% of its state budget since oil is selling for $20 a barrel less than than forecasted by budget planners.

Trump extended the sanctions Biden imposed on Russia for another year.

The US is considering reducing their 450,000 active duty forces by up to 90,000 soldiers in order to reduce individual programs by 8%. The overall budget will increase from $892 billion to $1 trillion due to modernization efforts.

Columbia agreed to buy Gripen fighters. Portugal, which was expected to buy F-35s, did not yet sign a contract with the US and is now evaluating Gripen fighters. Canada signed a contract for 88 F-35s and may only receive the 16 aircraft already being built but will likely cancel the remaining contract and look for another fighter.

An insurer from Ghana asked Norway to verify the documents of Ro Marine, a Norwegian insurance company. Norway found that the company did not exist. It had one Russian owner and a Bulgarian board member. Twelve NATO countries were given forged or false papers from Ro Marine. It issued insurance certificates for 255 ships, 76 of which are part of Russia’s shadow fleet. The Russian owner, Bulgarian board member and two Norwegian business associates have been charged.

Estonia passed a law allowing their defense forces to use force against any vessel that is a threat to national security. Two days later, the Kiwala oil tanker was passing through Estonian waters when it was stopped to verify its documentation and legal status. Online information said it was using the Djibouti flag to operate but a call to Djibouti revealed they were not on that country’s national registry. Kiwala had been sanctioned by the UK, Canada and Switzerland. It is owned by a company registered in Mauritius and is the only vessel owned by that company. Inspections revealed that the ship has 23 documentation issues, including being stateless, and 17 safety issues.

The Kiwala is anchored and under surveillance by the Estonian navy. It will not sail until 40 issues are resolved.

Equipment

Over two months ago, Robert Brovdi of the 414th Brigade (Magyar) said that they were using mobile radars to detect Russian drones using fiber optic cables. Because the canister of cable makes the drones slower and less maneuverable, the 414th is able to launch their own drones to intercept and destroy them. Since the drones are small objects it is likely that short wavelength radars are used, but these radars have a short range. Because of this, Brovi is urging that the Ukrainian army places radars to detect drones every 2-4 kilometers.

US counter-drone systems. The one on the right detects drones by their radio frequency signals and then hijacks the control link between the drones and the operators.

Nordic Air Defense is a Swedish startup that is developing the Krueger 100 drone interceptor to counter Shahed and reconnaissance drones like the Orlan-10. It uses a battery-powered pulse propulsion system and software with infrared sensors to track and intercept targets. It is supposed to be modular and scalable, and cheap.

The F72-LD is a modular lightweight off road vehicle that can carry nine personnel. It has a payload of 2267 kg and can be configured in a variety of forms. It is used by US special operations forces and is now being used by Ukrainian special operations troops.

A Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter with large exhaust difusers, standard B-8 pods for S-8 unguided rockets calibre 80mm, and M261 pods for US-made Hydra rockets.

Compared to 2023, Ukraine doubled its production of long-range drones and increased the production of cruise missiles by eight times. The actual numbers were not provided, though. Between 30 and 40% of the weapons used are now produced in Ukraine.

Ukraine spends a higher percentage of its GDP on defense than any nation in the world.

The state of Chinese counter-drone training.

Ukraine now has the technical documentation to build FrankenSAM air defense system on their own. It was reported that the Buk-M1 system was modified to US-made missiles in November 2023 and the first use was downing a Shahed drone in January 2024.

From April 2024 to February 2025, Ukraine intercepted a total of 2517 drones: 95.2% of these were reconnaissance drones. 2036 were intercepted during the day and 479 were destroyed by night. A Canadian-Ukrainian soldier estimates that 75% of the interception attempts result in a kill. Drone operators can get a new drone model on Sunday, use it, provide feedback to the company and the company can provide an updated drone model on Friday. Drone interceptors cost about $1,000.

Artillery barrels were expected to wear out around 4,500 shots but the barrel on Ukraine’s Bhodana howitzer was found to be effective even after 7-8,000 shots, and the barrel wear on western guns was minimal after 4-9,000 shots. The barrels of the German PzH 2000 were still effective after 20,000 shots. But a German report on the weapon systems they sent to Ukraine was mixed. The older Leopard 1A5, Marder IFV and Gepard AA gun have positive reviews and no complaints. The IRIS-T and Patriot systems are excellent in combat but are critically short of missiles. The Leopard 2A6 is too difficult to maintain and the PzH 2000 has physical and software malfunctions. Due to the high rates of failure, more vehicles need to be available as replacements. Future weapon purchases need to consider simplicity, reliability and ammo availability as part of their requirements.