Don's Weekly, 14 October 2024: Part 4

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 3…)

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Ukraine

The radar and control vehicle of a Patriot battery was destroyed by Iskander missiles. These components are as important as they are rare.

An AA machine gun engages a Russian drone.

Russia has been attacking international shipping near Odesa. A ship flying the flag of St. Kitts and Nevis was picking up grain when it was hit by a missile. Then a Palauan container ship was hit. After that, the Panamanian Shui Spirit was hit.

1,885 medical facilities have been attacked since the full-scale war began, and 222 of those were destroyed. 532 were fully repaired and 353 have been partially repaired.

1.5 million men have been granted deferments from mobilization because they were on the list of employees of critically important enterprises. Deferment applications have been suspended until November 15th as the rationale for the deferments are reviewed.

Ukraine’s defense spending is increasing by $12 billion. To fund it, income taxes that raise money for the military are increasing from 1.5% to 5%, bank profits will be taxed at 50%, and the taxes on other financial institutions will increase from 18% to 25%. With Ukrainian families already dealing with higher costs and lower income, it is an unpopular bill. Over half the $100 billion budget is spent on the military.

A soldier in the 28th Brigade offers his opinions: Commanders are the most important factor in determining whether a unit is successful or not. There is still a strong Soviet influence in the army in which superiors are feared and real problems are concealed to hide bad news. He talks in detail about the proper way to conduct unit rotations. They require planning, preparation, and coordination between the units that are rotating. He’s taken part in a rotation when the other unit left before they arrived. The enemy occupied the vacant position and fired on them as they arrived.

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Diplomacy

2300 men of Ukraine’s 155th Brigade are training in France and will use French equipment. Another 2200 men of the brigade are training in Ukraine.

The UK is considering sending troops to western Ukraine to train Ukrainian troops. While this will put them at some risk it is hoped it will help with recruitment efforts and save money. One of several issues with recruitment is that many feel they will not be properly trained and will then be more likely to be wounded or killed.

Lithuania is testing out new anti-tank barriers it will use on its border with Russia.

Norway is increasing its defense spending by $1.8 billion for a total of $10.3 billion, which is 2.16% of their GDP. They will add 1,000 service personnel, increase ammo stores, increase training and acquire more equipment, such as the F-35.

US Speaker of the House Johnson’s support for Ukraine is not enduring. “I don’t have an appetite for further Ukraine funding, and I hope it’s not necessary. If President Trump wins, I believe that he actually can bring that conflict to a close. I really do. I think he’ll call [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and tell him that this is enough. And I think everybody around the world is weary of this, and they want it to be resolved. So whatever the terms are, I’m not sure, but I think if Kamala Harris is president, I don’t think it ends, and that’s a desperate and dangerous scenario.”

But there are still quite a few US Republicans that have always supported Ukraine. Unfortunately for Ukraine, if the Republicans gain control of the senate, McConnell will not be the majority leader to guide legislation.

The president of the European Commission had words for Orban. Bella Ciao is a partisan song used in Italy to mark the end of Mussolini’s dictatorship on 25 April. It has also been used in Iran, Ukraine, Poland and Turkey to protest oppressive governments. Some MEP’s serenaded Orban with the song.

The US estimate of Russian casualties is similar to other estimates: 115,000 killed and 500,000 wounded. Their estimate of Ukrainian casualties is a little more than half of the Russian casualties, which is 57,500 killed and 250,000 wounded.

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Equipment

Ukraine tested out a drone flown by AI. The quick maneuvering at the end was accurate. And this is a repeater drone. It’s sole purpose is to relay the signal from the controller to the FPV drone and back again. It can extend the range of communication or can help provide the line of sight needed if terrain is in the way.

A thread on Russian barrel storage includes the 11 years it took to reorganize their storage sites after the 2010 military reforms sent so many vehicles into storage. There are a lot of D-20, D-30, 2S1 and 2S3 barrels. There are a lot fewer 2S5 and 2S7 barrels.

A Czech-Ukrainian team plan to produce in Ukraine 100,000 155 mm shells annually in 2025 and 300,000 shells in 2026. By comparison, the US is planning on producing 1.2 million shells annually by 2025, Rheinmetall plans to produce 700,000 shells by 2025, and France’s goal is 100,000 shells per year. Plans are not the same as reality, but if all the goals are met then Ukraine will receive a steady supply of ammo equivalent to the amount it fired each day during its 2023 offensive. The difference is that the shells used in the 2023 offensive were pulled out of finite stores. Going forward, these shells will be produced each day.

Russian bloggers claim Ukrainian artillery ammo supplies have increased.

In addition to its other aid to Ukraine, Norway will spend $90 million to develop rocket engine and hexamine production in Ukraine. Political decisions aside, one of the problems with increasing ammo production is all the materials needed to create an artillery shell. The brass, copper and steel is not an issue for the shell casing, but there supply sources for the explosive materials need to be developed to meet the increased demand and to lessen the dependency on China, which could, at any time, decide to cut off its sources. One method to meet the increased demand is to increase production on different types of explosives that use different raw materials. Hexamine was first used as an explosive in WW2 and was described as faster and more violent than TNT. Formaldehyde and ammonia are the main raw materials.

In addition to its previous extensive aid, the Dutch are handing over 24 F-16s and $439 million to jointly develop and produce drones for reconnaissance, attack and defense (interceptors). Most of the drones will be aircraft but naval and ground drones will also be included. Ukraine said that they could produce more drones if they had more money. The joint development means additional minds and resources are available for innovation. There are no wunderwaffen that will win the war, but drones and electronic warfare are the two sectors that can best support rapid innovation in the quest for a technical edge.

The Wild Hornets are part of the ongoing innovation. They’ve provided 1,000 interceptor drones that shot down 200 Russian reconnaissance drones that have been captured on video. Even more have been shot down that were not shown to the public, and hundreds of the interceptors have yet to be used. They are increasing communication capabilities, increasing the speed and duration of flight, and are increasing the production of night interceptors. They will soon start production of Shahed interceptors. And they have done all of this without any government funding.

The Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) turns an unguided rocket into a laser guided rocket and has been fielded by the US since 2012. It can be fired from the air, sea, or in this video, the ground. 14 units of the Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment (VAMPIRE, of course) was ordered for Ukraine. They started arriving in May, 2023 and all had arrived by the end of the year. Here’s a compilation video of them shooting down Russian drones.

The Steel Hornets test an anti-personnel warhead at 0:08 in the video, with the fragments hitting the water.

A German facility that dismantled old vehicles now rebuilds them for Ukraine.

Russians have been hauling away completely destroyed armored vehicles.

A Ukrainian vehicle is hit by a drone despite having a jammer. The jammer probably wasn’t working. A $150 device could determine which frequencies are being jammed, indicating if a jammer is working.

(…to be continued…)