Don's Weekly, 14 July 2025: Part 3 (Diplomacy & Equipment)

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Diplomacy

Please, stand up and keep quiet for a minute. Because we’re all in deep shock.

Can you imagine: Trump expressed disappointment because talking with Putin goes nowhere.

…and Trump, the best president of the USA of all the times, better than Obama, doesn’t know who ordered the pause on weapon shipments to Ukraine. Never mind if as president of the USA, he must be the first to know of such things. Unimportant.

Anyway… the shipments resumed for the third time - after being halted by the Defense Department. Trump said he was considering very strongly supporting the Senate sanctions bill on Russia. He said NATO would be paying for new weapons that will be sent to Ukraine, and said that he’d send new weapons from US stockpiles beyond what Biden authorized to ship. He also said there’d be a major announcement on Monday regarding Russia, so the comparison between words and deeds begins anew.

Besides the US Senate bill that will sanction anyone buying Russian oil, there is a new bill that authorizes $500 million in new military aid to Ukraine. Retiring senator McConnell criticized the Department of Defense for trying to block aid due to munitions shortages - while at the same time refusing to expand munitions production.

There are 180 Patriot batteries around the world and 94 are owned by NATO countries. Ukraine offered to pay for Patriot batteries months ago. Germany and Norway are waiting on Trump’s approval to buy Patriot batteries to donate to Ukraine. Last year, Germany bought eight Patriot batteries for $1 billion each and will receive them in 2029. Last week, Trump reportedly pressured Germany to send one Patriot battery to Ukraine while he would send ten Patriot missiles, which are fewer than the amount that was in the suspended delivery.

North Korea provides 40% of Russia’s ammo.

Azerbaijan will not arrest their citizens that fight on behalf of Ukraine but they will arrest citizens that fight for Russia because they are supporting the occupation of Ukrainian territories. An Azerbaijani media outlet spoke on behalf of the government, saying, “All successful world powers were established thanks to unions and coalitions. Modern Russia has not learned this lesson. Who is a close ally of Russia? Probably Belarus? Russian officials manage to quarrel with countries that oppose each other. The current simultaneous worsening of relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia is one of those examples. Russian politics is not even ‘divide and rule’. It is a disregard for non-Western countries, supplemented by a bet on brute force and threats. Does it work? Ukraine, about which the Russians have said for years that ‘it does not exist,’ that it was ‘invented by the Bolsheviks,’ can provide an answer: This stupidity led Russia to a strategic impasse.”

The Russian base in Armenia holds 2500 Russians, MiG-29 jets and S-300 air defense systems. Ukraine released documentation that showed that Russia was planning to increase the number of its troops that will be picked for their level of professional suitability, psychological stability and combat training. Armenia denies that Russia is increasing their troop levels.

Ghana and Ukraine are considering cooperative efforts in the agricultural sector. Ukraine will provide technology and advice on security forces and Ghana will help finance drone production.

Russia recruited criminals in Britain to burn a warehouse full of equipment for Ukraine. The criminals were also supposed to burn down a restaurant and kidnap a chef that criticized Putin.

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Equipment

Russia says that it tripled its overall planned drone production for 2025. Ukraine says Russia launched 1.6 times more long-ranged drones in June than in the previous month. Russia also partnered with the Chinese to build the Aero-HIT facility in Khabarovsk that is on track to produce 10k tactical drones per month this year.

The US was producing 14,500 artillery shells calibre 155mm a month in 2022 and had a goal of producing 100,000 rounds a month by October 2025. Currently, its industriy is manufacturing about 40,000 rounds a month, though. With that in mind, the Americans are still planning to increase the production of PAC-3 missiles in the US, Germany and Japan from 850 now to 1,130 in 2027 and 1,470 in 2029. Over the years, they planned to buy 3,376 PAC-3 missiles but have now increased that long-term goal to 13,773 missiles. It takes 34 to 36 months to build each missile so even if they increased the number of production lines there would be a three year wait before the output is increased…

Russia has used chlorine and tear gas in attacks throughout the war. Neither Hegseth nor Trump know about the issue. Why should they? Is none of their problems…

A Norwegian company that produces EW resistant communications will begin operations in Ukraine.

Ukraine started producing towed Bohdanas because they were cheaper and faster to produce self-propelled Bohdanas, and drones make movement dangerous. They are probably producing 10-20 a month. It currently uses a Soviet-era carriage but will be made with a newly-designed carriage before the end of the year.

Germany is sending 2,000 IRIS-T missiles, which have a nearly 100% shoot down rate of Russian drones. Given the 5-700 drone raids, the new missiles won’t last long.

Rheinmetall’s subsidiary in South Africa has their largest order for 155 mm shells in their history, and an Indian company will supply Rheinmetall with explosives and propellants for medium and large caliber shells.

A US company is building 1500 drones a month, a thousand of which go to Ukraine paid for by the US. By the end of this year they expect to be producing 10k drones a month. They would like to build a million drones a year but the US hasn’t shown any interest yet. The company is one of the few FPV manufacturers in the US to comply with the government’s ban on using key components from China. China has also sanctioned the company.

The Kurdistan Workers Party used drones against the Turkish military and now the Juarez Cartel is using drones against the Sinaloa Cartel in Mexico.

A soldier that used the 5.56 mm anti-drone rounds said it can’t be used with suppressors since the fragments could be stuck inside them. The sub-projectiles have a velocity of 800 m/s, which is twice as fast as smoothbore rounds, and the velocity provides enough kinetic energy to be effective 50-60 meters away. There are only 4-5 pellets in each round so bursts of 5-10 rounds of aimed fire are needed to produce enough mass in the air to bring a drone down. It’s important to remember that the drone will probably explode so cover should be used when possible.