Don's Weekly, 13 May 2024: Part 4

(…continued from Part 3…)

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Russia

Over 18,000 Russians have deserted. Just in the area of responsibility of the OSK South. 10,000 of them are mobilized conscripts…https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-over-18-000-russian-troops-of-southern-military-district-have-deserted/

A collaborator compares her life in Russia to life in Kherson…

https://twitter.com/AleksandrX13/status/1787790105819689275

Fires happen for all sorts of reasons. A port in Kamchatka had a fire…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1788526919245271488

A pro-Russian blogger confirmed the Su-34 kill last week… (this one in addition to two Su-25s claimed by the ZSU over the same span of time):

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1787508707401560370

1500 km from Ukraine, a refinery burned because of a drone strike…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1788532820400345516

1300 km away, a refinery burns in Russia. Or, if you’re a Russian authority, it’s operating normally…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1788496761188700215

An oil depot in Krasnodor was hit by drones…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1788425553340428796

A refinery in Volgograd was hit…

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1789362966661312765

A refinery in Kaluga was attacked for the second time since March…

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1788720450773623209

A close look at one oil refinery that was attacked…

https://twitter.com/tweetforAnna/status/1788232045199593803

Production at oil refineries is slowed not just by the Ukrainian attacks but also by Russians that are quitting their jobs at the facilities…https://www.newsweek.com/russia-oil-refinery-hub-drone-attacks-ukraine-1899132

Things are exploding in Belgorod…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1789068763851059216

In 2023, Russia produced 10.1 million barrels of oil a day. 50% was sent overseas to be refined and 50% was refined domestically. Of the 50% refined domestically, half was consumed domestically and the other half was sent to China, India, Turkey, Brazil and North Korea.

Ukraine reduced Russian refinery production by 900,000 barrels a day. Some have been repaired and the rest can take months to repair or longer. To compensate for the loss of refining capacity, Russia can decrease oil production or sell more unrefined oil on the world market. Since Ukraine initiated its attacks on production facilities, Russian diesel production has fallen by 16 %, gasoline production by 9%, and oil exports rose by 9%. The average weekly wholesale price of gasoline and diesel in western Russia rose by 23 percent and 47 percent, respectively, between the end of 2023 and mid-March.

“Without compromising global energy supply or driving up prices, the attacks are eating into Russian revenues and curtailing Russia’s ability to turn crude oil into the kinds of fuel that tanks and planes need to run. As long as Ukrainian forces avoid hitting crude oil pipelines or major crude oil export terminals, they can maintain this balance.”…https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-ukraine-should-keep-striking-russian-oil-refineries

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Ukraine

Ukraine says Zelensky has been targeted for assassination more than ten times. The wife of Kyrylo Budanov was poisoned last year. The latest attempt involved two Ukrainian colonels in the State Security Administration tasked with protecting Ukrainian leaders. They were supposed to identify security personnel that would be willing to take part in the plots. Zelensky was supposed to be blocked as he entered or left the building. Budanov was supposed to be monitored and once his location was verified, he would be attacked by a rocket, and then drones, followed by another rocket attack…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/07/world/europe/ukraine-russia-zelensky-plot.html?smid=url-share

Three thermal plants were hit on Wednesday. Some of the equipment was destroyed and some was damaged but could be repaired. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest energy provider, said 80% of its capacity has been damaged or destroyed. Before the war, Ukraine was an exporter of electricity. It imported 225,000 megawatt-hours of electricity, 30% more than they did in March…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/world/europe/russia-ukraine-power-plants-attack.html?smid=url-share

Hydroelectric plants were also severely damaged…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1788514596803772645

Spain already sent an undisclosed number of Patriot missiles and Romania is discussing sending a Patriot system…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/world/europe/russia-ukraine-power-plants-attack.html?smid=url-share

The ZSU is meanwhile working up a separate branch of its forces, operating unmanned systems:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1787899744770998598

Two Ukrainian air defense systems are destroyed. In the third video, a Buk drives up to a building and a resupply truck drives up. The moving shadows indicate the passage of time. At the time of impact, only the truck is there. Or, as the Russians say, another Buk is destroyed…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1789026679907660186

Ukraine uses 42,000 Starlink terminals in the government, military, businesses, hospitals, and aid organizations. Russia has been buying Starlink terminals through Arab countries at elevated prices. The US found a way to prevent Russia from using them without disrupting Ukraine’s terminals. The Pentagon says Starlink has become a reliable partner…https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-pentagon-blocks-russian-military-from-accessing-starlink-in-ukraine/

Under some circumstances, Ukrainian prisoners can serve in the military in return for reduced sentences…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/32406?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1shVNNy34dz858tDvh3sXKz-yZ_GMRQ6n419Xv7hDkMtmZ6-g3ebBj6M8_aem_Aa3RgdGN_kO1gOK0IWkeyMffk1kBUTpa1l_TvPIqrqtWX0PIr4i6XLU20eFmKelv0BUXREc0fJmobNcm1VeARnMh

Some of Ukraine’s wounded receive bionic limbs…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1788206903522115636

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Diplomacy

Russia is conducting a nuclear exercise to once again show how serious they are. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/06/world/europe/russia-tactical-nuclear-weapons-drills.html?smid=url-share

For its part, the US is spending $750 billion over the next ten years to research, test, maintain, reinvent and reproduce replacement parts for its missiles and warheads. Russia does not spend $750 billion over tens years to make sure its nuclear arsenal is safe and reliable. It does, however, use the threat of uncertainty…https://apnews.com/article/nuclear-weapons-missile-military-overhaul-f7ac8939a3bd3e6455b144f0cb5da528

Like the US, Italy only allows its weapons to be used within Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1787864048014413835

A world-wide poll asks people if the west has done too little or too much for Ukraine…https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/people-worldwide-rate-us-eu-nato-support-1715177058.html

A new rounds of sanctions on Russia…

https://twitter.com/DenisDanilovL/status/1788480468150620213

"We have started intensive work on modern fortifications. These fortifications in many dimensions will be built along the entire Polish border from the east," President Tusk said.

Slovakian citizens raised €4.2 million so far, enough to buy 2692 122mm rounds. The initiative signed a memorandum with the Czech government and the manufacturer and hope to deliver them by the end of summer. The initiative wanted a symbolic way for Slovakia to join the Czech initiative and noted they provided more money than some governments, such as Canada. When they told Fico they delivered 2692 rounds more than he did, he said they were a "fart in Stromovka". Slovakians also paid for a demining machine and will continue to collect on behalf of Ukraine…https://www.postoj.sk/155363/za-prve-styri-miliony-kupia-2692-delostreleckych-nabojov

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Georgia

Bidzina Ivanishvili was born in 1956 to a poor Georgian family. In 1988, he founded the only private company allowed in the Soviet Union at the time and became rich selling computers and push button phones before making his wealth in metals and banking. He supported the 2003 Rose revolution in Georgia that ended the Soviet-style government and provided $1 billion to support governmental reforms.

In 2011, he renounced his Russian and French citizenship and sold his Russian businesses in order to run as an opposition leader in the Georgian parliament against Mikheil Saakashvili, who’s reputation changed from reformer to corrupt politician. Four days later, Ivanishvili was stripped of his Georgian citizenship. He founded the Georgian Dream political party and it was nominally headed by a Georgian citizen. The opposition parties united behind Georgian Dream to oppose Saakashvili and his United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s wealth of $6.4 billion exceeded Georgia’s state budget of $5.7 billion. Massive spending aided the Georgian Dream coalition winning the election with 55% of the vote. When his citizenship was restored, he became Prime Minister in 2012.

He resigned in 2013 but kept his influence in the government through the many high-ranking government officials connected to him. In 2018, he returned as chairman of the Georgian Dream to maintain coalition unity as it had the reputation of being pro-Russian. He paid off the debts of 600,000 citizens, which Transparency International called vote-buying. In 2019, the Prime Minister resigned in protest of Georgian Dream policies. Political protests in support of political reform were violently opposed and when parliament voted down the reforms, many politicians left the party in protest. A compromise political reform was eventually passed.

In 2021, Ivanishvili resigned again from Georgian Dreams, saying he achieved his goals. The accusations of his influence and money dominating Georgian politics never went away. The leader of Ukraine’s Servant of the People party and EU’s parliament recommended sanctions against Ivanishvili. In December, 2023, he once again returned as chairman of Georgian Dream, stating that he supports Georgian membership in the EU and NATO but believing that normalization of ties with Russia will provide Georgia with security. The party did state that diplomatic ties with Russia should not be established until the disputes with Russia over Abkhazia and South Ossetia are resolved.

In April, 2023, 89% of Georgians wanted to join the EU. In December, 2023, Georgia was given EU candidate status. The Foreign Agent bill states that anyone receiving 20% or more of their funding from abroad register as a foreign agent. Ivanishvili says the law is necessary to stop the West trying to use Georgians as "cannon fodder" in a confrontation with Russia. The EU says the bill will pose a serious obstacle to further integration if passed. The Georgian opposition calls it "the Russian law", comparing it to legislation used to target critics of Vladimir Putin's Kremlin. Demonstrations against it have shut down central Tbilisi for more than a month and there are no signs they will stop…https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-deeply-alarmed-by-georgias-foreign-agent-bill-sullivan-says-2024-05-11/

Before the law is even passed, the Georgian state is creating a list of enemies. Information is being posted about NGOs, teachers, media, and media is being released and these people are being threatened on the phone and attacked at their homes…

https://twitter.com/EtoBuziashvili/status/1788278445224464886

This thread documents the increasing violence by government forces without emblems and personnel dressed in civilian clothes, similar to the use of the Titushky in Ukraine. High ranking opposition figures are beaten at their homes while the Justice Minister suggests that opposition members are beating each other. A pro-Ukrainian blogger was arrested and his lawyer was unable to see him. In the workplaces and homes of opponents, posters are displayed declaring them to be traitors and enemies of the people. May 13th is an important day because it is the third reading of the bill and could be validated then…

https://twitter.com/CartesDuMonde/status/1788983440966119649

If you’re trying to establish an authoritarian government you have to ramp up the oppression…

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1788670321014300799

I haven’t seen a verification of the crowd size, but several organizations used the word “massive”…

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1789333053984170226

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Equipment

North Korea may have sent up to 3 million artillery rounds to Russia. Ukraine says that up to half of them might be duds and the rest need to be refurbished before being used. 21 of the 50 or so North Korean missiles that Russia fired exploded in mid-air…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/07/ukraine-some-50-of-russian-launched-north-korean-missiles-went-off-course-and-blew-up-midair/

Ukrainian drones are being hunted by Russian drones. Here are some successes…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1787199359316029945

Three more HIMARS are heading to Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1788631004690731377

A time lapse of Russian artillery pieces disappearing from storage. More than a thousand were pulled out and 40% of the stored pieces remain…

https://twitter.com/hizzo_jay/status/1788988141782659509

100 Bradleys and 100 M113’s were sent to Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1788995557458862493

The US will replace each Bradley sent to Ukraine with the new M2A4E1. Among other things, it features Israel’s Iron Fist, which intercepts incoming RPG, ATGM and tank rounds…https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/05/03/us-army-new-bradley-variant/

The US is sending 3 Patriot systems to Ukraine. Germany made it possible by paying for it. Canada is contributing $55 million to the German air defense initiative…https://www.rferl.org/a/32940107.html

The EW battlefield is constantly changing. Backpack jammers with a limited set of frequencies can avoided by using frequencies outside of their jamming capabilities. A jammer that is able to utilize multiple frequencies with enough power is more effective…

https://twitter.com/Chuck_Petras/status/1789048845063909883

Another report of how Russia is running low on stored vehicles to refurbish and send to the front lines. Since most of the BMPs and T-62s in decent condition have been used, they are now forced to refurbish vehicles with serious structural damage. This takes more time so the rate of refurbishment will slow. BMP-1AM’s are modernized BMP-1s but the low numbers encountered on the front indicates the slow rate of modernization. The lack of spare parts to repair and refurbish means the more damaged vehicles are cannibalized for their parts. Of the 3822 vehicles still in storage, 486 are being used for spare parts…

https://twitter.com/Jonpy99/status/1785973906026713172