47 Comments
May 13Liked by Sarcastosaurus

The US is sending 3 Patriot systems to Ukraine. Germany made it possible...That one should be 3 HIMARS

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Yeah, that's an important little detail. Sorry.

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Patriots are pretty useless unless you have enough of very expensive interceptors.

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May 13Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks for the update guys!

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May 13Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks for the excellent update.

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Is there any chance that we shall see the tide turning now these western weapons are on their way?

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I've read so many articles in which the authors wonder if an even is a turning point or just declare it to be so. Based on the current level of western support and Russian production, all indications is that this war will last a couple more years. That will only change if the conditions change. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz95_VvTxZM

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With a current speed of destruction of UA howitzers by Lancets and other means, the West should provide smth really worthy to keep fire burning for 2 more years.

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Russian equipment losses far exceed their ability to produce and refurbish from storage. French and Ukrainian production alone can cover the Ukrainian losses.

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Let's agree to disagree.))) I stronly advise again to look at everyday's update of Lancets strikes at lostarmour.info

2-3 hits on UA guns everyday (to say nothing about hits by Krasnopols and bombs). French and UA production covers a small part of losses. The problem for UA is not the lack of shells, but the lack of howitzers. Each day it's getting worse. For example, two newly produced Bohdanas SPH were destroyed within past week.

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"2-3 hits on UA guns everyday " compared with the 20+ hits on Russian artillery the UA claims everyday

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Don doesn't look at those. It is easier that way.

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May 14Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Don, I'm afraid one will always end up going round in circles with Tupolev16.

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We'll agree to agree on that one.

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Don't forget that a lot of this stuff being refurbed is now the not so easy to fix stuff. Like it was said above, the remaining systems are going to take a lot longer to get up to speed while the UA gets more modern systems to replace losses. I need to sit down someday and do some math on what a modern UA gun is worth compared to a RU model. There was always the whole "NATO expects a 3 to 1 kill ration for system X" but I never saw one for howitzers. I can see why, tanks are easy to compare, but guns not so much. Use the Bohdana as an example, how many RU guns to take out one of these? Well, if you are using D-20s or 30s, the answer is unknown as none of these guns can range a Bohdana, and I am reading that the RU artillery force is now 80% towed which means a lot of these. Hm, this could be interesting.

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Plus, Russia's only producing 50 barrels a year and a lot of the barrels from the stored artillery has already been removed. Worn out barrels have shorter range, are less accurate and eventually burst.

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Jfc are we still doing the "Russia can't make tubes" meme?

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How many barrels does North Korea produce ?

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I don't know.

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Oh, you don't want to go there. There is crap and then there is CRAP. North Korea's stuff is arguably worse than Romania's during the Cold War. I have read about various stress tests on Nork gear the US "acquired" and it's scary. The much feared Koksong Gun (a monster artillery piece) burst after 12 rounds at sustained firing. Other pieces are slightly better, but since 50% of the Nork artillery shells are having problems, I'd be very wary about using any complex stuff from these guys or anything that requires any real quality control.

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That's nothing a little bit of quality control can't fix. Besides, "Quantity has a quality all its own"

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May 14·edited May 14

Nowadays counterbattery fire attributes to the lesser part of artillery losses. Drones and long-range missiles matter.

Btw, 3rd Bohdana got Lanceted this week:

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/123609

Another underestimated misery for UA is 20 times increased Krasnopols' guided shells production. Now RU howitzers use guided shells even at low value targets. Of course, they are still used for counterbattery. A M109 was just destroyed by Krasnopol:

https://t.me/faceofwar/40417

Bottom line: UA artillery forces are rapidly dwindling, forcing allies to supply UA with the exotic things:

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2024/04/27/uk-firm-bought-saddams-soviet-artillery-dispatched-them-to-ukraine/

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UA will receive in next months big amount of soviet caliber shells, but these types of artillery is not produced any more and there some looses so they need to replace them. You never has enough guns and these types are quite slow with short range so it s better to have them more hidden on critical positions as to transport them between positions as it is done with west types.

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No, they are not. But Russia's is. They are taking losses yes, but not at a battalion or even 3 battalions a day. At the rate you are talking about the UA is losing barely a battery a week versus at a minimum of 7 battalions by the RU, and that is at minimum. A battery can be replaced at current rate of production, you can't replace three or four BDEs worth with new production. As for Saddam's artillery? Its the same stuff the UA uses already in many units, so why not get it and use it? No new training required, and you can equip units that are being stood up.

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Have no mercy to orcs: not 3, but 5-6 battalion per day.)))))

Seriously, with total RU advantage in the air (250-300 glided bombs per day), with roughly equal potential in FVP drones and artillery, with similar weak command (as UA summer counteroffensive showed), how could losses of both sides be that much different?

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Yes, they could be. I served with the UA military as an advisor in 2017 and I had a couple of Senior FA officers explain BDA to me. The UA has a very robust system in counting kills due to some serious IO issues back in 2014/15 where the RU caught them lying and made them look really bad. Now (at least in 2017) the requirements to mark a "kill" are much stricter. They showed me stuff that I would have considered killed, but they only counted as damaged or not even that. THe war has been going on for a while and likely the requirements have slipped some, but the UA count is much more accurate than anything the RU puts up. The UA is standing on the defense, so right away that slews the kill ratio in their favor. The RU equipment is poor and is getting worse. The point on that is that even older Western gear is much more survivable, stuff that would kill a RU vehicle will just damage Western stuff, and the crew and passengers are much more likely to escape and survive. A hit on a BMP is a kill on all crew and any passengers, a hit on a Marder or a Bradley and maybe you get some wounded. You can tell this is true because the UA troops ride inside Western vehicles versus on the outside for RU stuff so they can jump away or try to.

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Just so we are talking the same numbers, I'm using US MTOE here. 18 guns per battalion, 3 battalions per BDE (can be more, several US BDEs are 4 or 5 Bns). 54 guns per BDE (mechanized). HiMARS and MLRS are different but we are talking guns here.

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Thanks for update. I don't quite get the rationale for avoiding crude oil infrastructure- if russia's ability to export crude is reduced, sure prices will go up, but inversely to global supply, not Russia's supply. So the extra profit per barrel wouldn't compensate for the drop in volume. Unless Ukraine has decided the damage to Russia's economy isn't worth the global backlash. If so, this is ugly. Bearing high fuel prices is the least we can do.

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As I understand it, refined oil makes a higher profit. If you theoretically eliminated all of Russia's refineries, not only would you reduce their income, they'd have to buy gas, diesel and other products from abroad, which would cost money. Refined oil is important for their economy and their army.

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Ah right, yes, on that we agree. I was thinking of the pros and cons of going after crude infrastructure as a secondary target. I can't see price rises from attacks on crude compensating adequately for loss in volumes.

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Well, this war is likely to continue for another couple of years, unless something changes. Even if it would hurt Russia a lot more than the world and West, the West doesn't have a WW2 style of committment. Even during WW2, the allies worried about long term morale and public sentiment.

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The global market may panic, as it did in the first months of the war. That will result in much higher global prices and increased profit for Russia.

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Okay, I understand - theres a need to factor in 'emotion' to the oil price

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May 16·edited May 16

The global market panics constantly for one reason or another. And then it either crashes or calms down, depending on what the real economy is doing. Trying to avoid these market tantrums is a very silly and doomed endeavour. But unfortunately many world leaders do indeed try to predict and prevent the tantrums, even though they never succeed.

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18,000 deserters? Holy cow. That is unbelievable. In the US, that would cause so much of stir it would make Watergate look like a side bet on a track.

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author

Over 15,000 US troops defected during the Iraq War.

Over 5,000 (some are actually talking about the mass of these 15,000) of them fled to Germany. Which doesn't prosecute them: both Washington and Berlin are simply keeping zip-lip about this fact.

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Defected? You must mean deserted.

I don't recall insurgent groups in Iraq recruiting a lot of fleeing US soldiers to fight for them.

30 days AWOL = desertion. And unlike how things work in Mordor, the punishment is brief incarceration and dishonorable discharge, not torture in a pit until you're send with an assault group to die.

Defection is what my idiot brother-in-law did last year. Though he wasn't ever a soldier - lacks the intestinal fortitude to actually fight for his beliefs, MAGA or Putinite.

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I had not heard of this before now. If they deserted and subsequently defected to Germany, they kinda did both.

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Nonsense lmao. Just the fact you think that shows how effective American propaganda is. The US Army alone has 2,500-4,000 AWOLs a year and they're not even at war.

That said I'm sure the wartime desertion rate in the RAF is higher because it is easier to desert in Ukraine than Iraq. Everyone is the same ethnicity and speaks the same language.

The most common way to get out of combat duty in the US armed forces is to just invent an excuse to not come back from leave. Huge numbers of people did that in my unit.

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Not so true, It is much easier to desert in west as in UA now. Soldiers in iraq have got many vacation and can travel to germany for example and there can desert or they can desert before they go to Iraq and fast nobody was searching for them or in worst case there will be some jail. If you desert in UA you can go to the UA but with big risiko because of enemy fire and mines or go to Belarus or home but if they catch you, you will be happy if you ended in prison and not dead . And what can they do in russia or belarus if they are state enemies because of desertion ?

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May 14·edited May 14Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Uh, no lol. The large majority of troops who deployed to the Middle East didn't get leave.

It is also worth mentioning that the USA has not fought anything close to a real war since Vietnam, and in that war they literally stopped using conscripts because the morale and disciplinary issues had gotten so high.

If the USA ever gets into a real war again with hundreds or thousands of casualties daily, conscription will have to come back, and desertions will go up.

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"In Russia they don't have dachas, gardens, or garages"🤡🤡🤡🤡

Ukrainians have figured out the ultimate cheat code, they can say literally anything and western NAFO kids will lap it up without question.

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Thanks for the reports Don

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while we wait for som news on this channel.... here is an old news from my country . https://www.nrk.no/urix/ekspert_-_-krigen-i-ukraina-blir-avgjort-i-vapenfabrikkene-1.16771306

you probably need to translate this....

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May 19·edited May 19

Thx for the update!

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