Don's Weekly, 13 May 2024: Part 1

Hello everybody!

Must admit, I’m in sort of trouble.

…or at least it’s so that after intensive activities of recent weeks, both of my hands meanwhile hurt (and then badly) from all the typing: typing of updates for you, typing of my latest book, typing of e-mails and private messages…

But, that’s an ages old problem of mine. An even bigger problem is: I can’t make up my mind for days already.

As for why, please try to put yourself into my shoes:

• on one side, the ZSU knew the ‘Russians are coming’ (are going to attack over the border into northern Kursk) for at least two weeks;

• so much so, it seems even the Russians knew the ZSU knows this;

• and so much so, I couldn’t believe the Russians would attack, precisely because it was a sort of ‘public secret’ the ZSU knew the Russians would attack; and still,

• the Russians attacked there.

To me, this is making so little sense, can’t say. It’s like if you’re trying to convince me that 1+1= 3.

I mean: the crucial issue for any attack is the moment of surprise. In this regards, it’s rather simple: if you have the moment of surprise, attack is highly-promising; if not, an attack is near-certain to fail.

Unsurprisingly, the moment of surprise is one of fundaments of the Russian military doctrine. Something indoctrinated into the minds of Russian military officers for at least 80 years. Correspondingly, it’s also something indoctrinated into the minds of nerds like me, studying the Russian military science for decades. So much so it’s almost as simple as that 1+1=2. Always. Anywhere. Any time…

….especially when one adds such facts like that at least since Popasna and then its (failed) attempts to cross the Siversky Donets, back in April-June 2022, the VSRF is doing its utmost to prove it can’t run large-scale mechanised operations any more. It’s unable of doing that. Which in turn means that whatever might have been the plan for this ‘Northern Kharkiv offensive’, its planners must have known they can’t get very far with it.

But, in this war…. these ‘Traditional Rules of the Russian Military Sciences No. 1 to No. 99’ - are simply wrong.

And if this is the case - and it is obvious it is - then there is only one solution: in Pudding’s world, all that matters is the illusion of victory.

It doesn’t matter if it’s an illusion: it doesn’t matter if it’s crystal clear - already since around 5-10 March 2022 - that there is no way Russia can win this war.

Important is only to maintain this illusion. Kind of: as long as Russia is attacking, as long as it has the initiative on the battlefield, the Russians and - especially - Pudding’s fans abroad, even people who are not really ‘pro-Pudding/pro-Russia’ but rather skeptical about Western will to support Ukraine (and that for some 50-100 good reasons), can maintain their illusions of there being a hope that ‘Russia’ is going to prevail, to win this war, to defeat Ukraine. To defeat greedy yet incompetent NATO and Western imperialists, and Nazis, and Mars People, too…

Of course, when one adds the general ‘war weariness’ of the West (as if the West would be fighting this war, or even seriously supporting Ukraine); then the exhaustion of Ukrainians after two years of really bitter fighting and lots of losses; and then all the frustrations about dozens of missed opportunities… then this illusion is reinforced by a magnitude.

….while… well, in these days I’m finishing the work on this one, and thus I dare observing (even ‘predicting’): when such weirdos like me ‘zoom out’… and gauging by the ‘speed’ and ‘achievements’ of this offensive after four days of it, I doubt we’re going to recall this operation already in two years from now.

But, there you are…

Above all, you’re not here to read about my impressions or pains in my hands, or my confusion about Pudding forcing his generals to fight against rules based on 80+ years of studying military sciences - but: about facts about this war. Therefore, let me hand over to Don, who’s prepared another of his nice reviews of the developments in this war in the last week.

Of course, I know some of you are considering both Don and me for ‘biased’. Because - and foremost - we do not point out every single Ukrainian tank destroyed by the Russians. Because, you know, destruction of one (in digits: 1) Ukrainian tank is ‘more important’ than the destruction of two or three (in digits: 2 or 3) Russian assault groups including a total of nine (in digits: 9) T-80s, and thirteen (in digits: 13) BMPs and BTRs, and 30-50 troops etc…as is happening every single day for eight months now…. because the destruction of that one tank is not only ‘evidence’, but indeed: a symbol of the Russian victory, after all.

…while the daily destruction of multiple Russian assault groups is none of that…

Now you know the truth….

***

Kharkiv

Russia’s stated objective for this offensive is to establish a 10 km buffer zone to better protect its territory from Ukrainian artillery (and raids by Russian militants serving with anti-Pudding groups), and to put Kharkiv in range of its rocket artillery. A lot of the Ukrainian territory was too close to construct defenses so Ukraine did develop two defence lines, but the first of this is 10km south of the border. North of that line, the ZSU is maintaining presence only in form of outposts and surveillance equipment, and patrols by reconnaissance troops.

Some are already complaining that this means the ‘border was unprotected’…

And so, and following weeks of exchanging artillery fire and drone attacks, Russia sent in sabotage- and recon- teams to infiltrate Ukraine and find gaps in the defenses. A lot of them were killed or captured. Russia didn’t use many vehicles but a lot of what they did use was hit by drones already while approaching the border. When Russian troops finally encountered Ukrainian defenses they were repelled with losses.

Except for moving at least two brigades to north-eastern Kharkiv (including the 3rd Assault), Ukraine re-deployed an artillery brigade from Bakhmut, which is a statement of the situation at Bakhmut - and then promptly deployed this in combat.

So far, the units already present in north-eastern Kharkiv have contained the threat, though. So, units like the 3rd haven’t even had to engage in combat. But, the fact is that this is a threat the ZSU can’t ignore: the Russian activity on this front will stretch Ukrainian resources even further, despite the Russian losses over the last few days increasing by about 20% in comparison to those before 10 May.

Multiple Russian recon or sabotage groups were killed or captured after they crossed the border…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1789365704442917129

Ukrainian artillery mines the path of a Russian assault group…

https://twitter.com/Military_oO/status/1788633315299205394

MLRS from Belgorod fires into Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1788844078966182262

Three Russian BMPs, and an MT-LB were hit before they crossed the border into Ukraine. The truck had been destroyed a long time ago…

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1788946665396740575

Russian vehicles are hunted with drones as they move into Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1789003503618183170

Ammo trucks are targeted by Ukrainian border guards…

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1788885321574146223

Two Russian BMPs are destroyed by drones…

https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1788974170405024245

A Ukrainian 155 mm gun was destroyed by a Lancet…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1789000693904208206

Near Hatysche, Russian vehicles are finished off by drones…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1789267539282850280

GRAPHIC: Two more wounded Russian soldiers commits suicide…

https://twitter.com/TOGAjano21/status/1788951149011198305

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1789366009536696462

32 km east of Kharkiv, a bridge over a dam was destroyed…

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1789164892714348941

(…to be continued…)