"a continuation of the attrition of the Russian army under more favorable circumstances."
I would be disappointed it it's 'just' that much.
... Well, there was a meme way back about taking the Kerch bridge through Belgorod, Rostov and Krasnodar... I know it was a joke but ... Oh, what a hearty laugh would that be ;)
If Ukraine had 100 extra brigades with 100,000 extra logistical vehicles then a breakthrough such as this would end the war. They have to work with the resources at hand.
Yep.A meme is just a meme. But I still think/hope/believe that they have the manpower left for a second phase which can tip the scale and maybe for a third, which may lead to the end of the war in a year: so that it's not 'just' about wreaking havoc and relieving the other areas but a winning move with strategic value.
Well in 2022 they were flying in VDV behind the front lines to stabilise it. That option is only limited available now as the troops themselves got hammered and their method of transport already last year.
While the front isn’t established, and if ZSU manages to move further 30-40 km East, they will be in good position to significantly disrupt Russian logistics towards the South.
My thoughts were more like cutting the highway between Belgorod and Kursk. The disruption of this highway combined with a move southeast by ZSU might create conditions to breach the Russian border closer to Belgorod and put this railroad to Vovchansk under at least fire control.
Excellent update Don, thank you. I particularly appreciate the detail on the 'pre-amble' to the operation. Very clever way to move a large number of troops and just make it look like a reaction to the enemy. Well played Ukraine.
It will be interesting to see what happens to Gerasimov, if anything. Who on earth would replace him? What would they do different?
I am wondering if the Ukrainians are preparing the original two defensive lines that Russia had near the border as their final fall back line. so the attritional warfare this will revert to will be on Russian soil for a change?
Many defensive positions are created to cover a directional approach. As long as Ukraine remains in the Kursk region attritional warfare will be fought on Russian soil.
Agreed, the Ukrainians will need time and space to convert it to defence from the North and East. Plus dig up and place new minefields and wire. I hope they have engineering elements working on that right now.
I do not think Putler gave Gerasimov direct orders to move troops from Kursk. He could just say something like "make attacks more intense" and it was up Gerasimov to decide where to move troops from. So, in the minds of Putler fans (and Putler himself), the Tsar could never be blamed, it's always fault of the others.
will be interesting to see how they are going to push this back. In Ukraine they level cities and small towns with glide bombs. Will they do the same to their own population?
Thanks for the update
"a continuation of the attrition of the Russian army under more favorable circumstances."
I would be disappointed it it's 'just' that much.
... Well, there was a meme way back about taking the Kerch bridge through Belgorod, Rostov and Krasnodar... I know it was a joke but ... Oh, what a hearty laugh would that be ;)
If Ukraine had 100 extra brigades with 100,000 extra logistical vehicles then a breakthrough such as this would end the war. They have to work with the resources at hand.
Yep.A meme is just a meme. But I still think/hope/believe that they have the manpower left for a second phase which can tip the scale and maybe for a third, which may lead to the end of the war in a year: so that it's not 'just' about wreaking havoc and relieving the other areas but a winning move with strategic value.
Well in 2022 they were flying in VDV behind the front lines to stabilise it. That option is only limited available now as the troops themselves got hammered and their method of transport already last year.
That will become interesting.
Thanks Don!
While the front isn’t established, and if ZSU manages to move further 30-40 km East, they will be in good position to significantly disrupt Russian logistics towards the South.
They would have to move 130 km east to reach the Korocha line and cut off rail lines to Vovchansk and at that point the city would be surrounded. Here's a map of the Russian rail network: https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Belgorod_Oblast#/map/0/7/50.620/37.303
My thoughts were more like cutting the highway between Belgorod and Kursk. The disruption of this highway combined with a move southeast by ZSU might create conditions to breach the Russian border closer to Belgorod and put this railroad to Vovchansk under at least fire control.
Every little bit helps, for sure, but trucks are only the last leg of the supply chain. Rail lines also run through Prokhorovka and Korochka.
Excellent update Don, thank you. I particularly appreciate the detail on the 'pre-amble' to the operation. Very clever way to move a large number of troops and just make it look like a reaction to the enemy. Well played Ukraine.
It will be interesting to see what happens to Gerasimov, if anything. Who on earth would replace him? What would they do different?
Whoever is in that spot, they all have to answer to Putin.
I am wondering if the Ukrainians are preparing the original two defensive lines that Russia had near the border as their final fall back line. so the attritional warfare this will revert to will be on Russian soil for a change?
Many defensive positions are created to cover a directional approach. As long as Ukraine remains in the Kursk region attritional warfare will be fought on Russian soil.
Agreed, the Ukrainians will need time and space to convert it to defence from the North and East. Plus dig up and place new minefields and wire. I hope they have engineering elements working on that right now.
Thanks Don for this report
Thank you for all these details.
I do not think Putler gave Gerasimov direct orders to move troops from Kursk. He could just say something like "make attacks more intense" and it was up Gerasimov to decide where to move troops from. So, in the minds of Putler fans (and Putler himself), the Tsar could never be blamed, it's always fault of the others.
will be interesting to see how they are going to push this back. In Ukraine they level cities and small towns with glide bombs. Will they do the same to their own population?
They'll probably use the same care and consideration that they show their soldiers.
Thanks for this 4 articles Don. Really clear. Kursk is great, But we need to look to Donbass too.